ANN: BITMAIN has Tested Its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chip BM1382

[sciack]

Just running some calculations, for all those saying it will be 1 BTC, based on a 20% diff increase each time, you won't see that money back. Maybe I did something wrong, but hey, I'm just giving it a shot for my own personal calculations. Maybe someone will find this useful too. By these calculations anyway, if the price of them was 0.5 BTC, you would make £786.89 total after 4 months of running. Running them after 4 months would result in you losing money. That £786.89 isn't taking into account other hardware that you may need, PSU, Switch board, Frame, Extra fans. And that pretty much would take all of that $786.89! Not too mention the UK VAT that you have to pay getting it shipped over here. If they were priced at 0.5 BTC, I'd be making 0 money at all buying these.

EDIT: Forgot to mention this is a estimate of running 10 of them at a time. Not factoring in overclock speeds as I know someone mentioned previously they saw no reason why it couldn't be OC'd up to 800 GH+ but I have no idea about that! 

Code:

Difficulty 1 (11.6 days in)
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this is simply wrong for one simple reason, you don't know the BTC value where it will be. And according to my expectations it will rise a lot probably more than double in a couple of months...

[s1gs3gv]

Just running some calculations, for all those saying it will be 1 BTC, based on a 20% diff increase each time, you won't see that money back. Maybe I did something wrong, but hey, I'm just giving it a shot for my own personal calculations.

20% difficulty is wrong judging by current increase levels, now they might be wrong projecting forwards but then again they might not. Most difficulty projections have been overly pessimistic in the past. But the same doom and gloom mongers will come out now and say we are all wrong and it'll be 25% or something daft. As hash rate increases it takes a lot more hardware to make a dent in difficulty than it did before. Most of the new hardware coming out hasn't really been a major change in performance, just iterative improvements in efficiency or performance. So it could stay at 14-15%

I am not a gloom and doom monger by any means. I think 14-15% is optimistic. But the real point here is the risk of the difficulty going ballistic.
And this risk is increasing. The price needs to reflect the risk. There is no point chasing uncertain pennies with dollars unless you have partaken of the kool-aid and are a true believer that BTC will be worth gazillions of $$$ in 5 years.

Kool-aid drinking is anathema to sound investment practices.

[sciack]

What's frustrating, is if any of you have ever dealt with a Bitmain return... They ask you to declare at $10 and label as 'computer gateway', so they don't have to pay import tax their end, but expect us to pay full whack. I know they're one of the best ASIC manufacturers around, but c'mon, need to declare the value lower!

Yes, it happens to me too !! It is unfair!!

[Sitarow]

A truly fantastic price would be 0.99 btc shipped, let's see if bitmain can do it

Updated the Difficultly vs Return chart.



Document with various hardware manufactures and estimated shutdown time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdEpqX2RmMDFwemJyLURVUWFtZ3J3aGc&usp=sharing

Your spondoolies-tech prices are WAY off.  And the SP10 is no longer available.

Those are the entries for those who had purchaded the units back then.

It is a baseline for those operating them for there records.

Everyone is free to input their own numbers in to suit their specific prices.

This is just to show that at this time buying btc is a better option.

[JCNC]

-snip-

this is simply wrong for one simple reason, you don't know the BTC value where it will be. And according to my expectations it will rise a lot probably more than double in a couple of months...

True, I know a lot of what I said was based upon assumption. Seeing the price of BTC rise so much in those months though? I think it's a bit risky imho, but anyone can argue no risk, no gain. So at the end of the day, it's down to those who are prepared to take the risk. For me, the biggest risk is shipping prices for the UK, diff increases and the time it'll take for these to arrive and be up and mining. If BTC genuinely did more than double, then yes, now I'm in business and would consider it.

[dropt]

this is simply wrong for one simple reason, you don't know the BTC value where it will be. And according to my expectations it will rise a lot probably more than double in a couple of months...

Don't count your ROI in terms of fiat.  BTC in vs. BTC out.   The only relevance fiat has is if the unit is priced in $ and you need the conversion rate to evaluate the BTC in metric.

[GenTarkin]

Don't count your ROI in terms of fiat.  BTC in vs. BTC out.   The only relevance fiat has is if the unit is priced in $ and you need the conversion rate to evaluate the BTC in metric.

Spot on! ... should note that fiat also comes into play w/ power consumption. But, I consider power consumption my investment into Bitcoin, all that matters is can I turn BTC into more BTC ... mining.

[Biontic]

Remember - remember!
Oct09 1000 BTC $0.76
Jan10 1000 BTC $3
Jan11 1000 BTC $300
Jan12 1000 BTC $5,270
Jan13 1000 BTC $13,300
Jan14 1000 BTC $800,000
Jan15 1000 BTC $?,???,??? - answers on a postcard...

As has been clarified umpteen times in this thread - BMT need to position this price carefully by walking a fine line, their considerations are many...

the key ingredients are  
i.)   make as much profit as possible
ii.)  ensure they pique miners appetite for this device
iii.) conform to what ever agreements were made during the recent manufacturers round table gathering http://www.bitell.com/index.php/archives/1963/

Our dreams, wishes and desires...  are most likely not on their list.
FWIW - sub 1BTC would be nice, given that the diffs are most likely going to be in the 20+% range  for the next number of months.
sub .5BTC  would ensure a tsunami of orders...
At the very least - it needs to be priced in BTC

@Bitmain - do the right thing here - for the people that have made you rich!

edit: 100th post 

[s1gs3gv]

Don't count your ROI in terms of fiat.  BTC in vs. BTC out.   The only relevance fiat has is if the unit is priced in $ and you need the conversion rate to evaluate the BTC in metric.

Spot on! ... should note that fiat also comes into play w/ power consumption. But, I consider power consumption my investment into Bitcoin, all that matters is can I turn BTC into more BTC ... mining.

Fiat also comes into play in estimation of future demand, hence also difficulty.

Unless the world develops a deep bitcoin economy, fiat ROI considerations are important.

[RoadStress]

Don't count your ROI in terms of fiat.  BTC in vs. BTC out.   The only relevance fiat has is if the unit is priced in $ and you need the conversion rate to evaluate the BTC in metric.

Spot on! ... should note that fiat also comes into play w/ power consumption. But, I consider power consumption my investment into Bitcoin, all that matters is can I turn BTC into more BTC ... mining.

Fiat also comes into play in estimation of future demand, hence also difficulty.

Unless the world develops a deep bitcoin economy, fiat ROI considerations are important.

Ok

[d57heinz]

Don't count your ROI in terms of fiat.  BTC in vs. BTC out.   The only relevance fiat has is if the unit is priced in $ and you need the conversion rate to evaluate the BTC in metric.

Spot on! ... should note that fiat also comes into play w/ power consumption. But, I consider power consumption my investment into Bitcoin, all that matters is can I turn BTC into more BTC ... mining.

Amen!!!

[PatMan]

Bitmain: Will the S3's be compatible with p2pool?

Regards.

[soothaa]

Very promising looking

[s1lverbox]

Got thE message about RMA for bitmain and claim that they asking to mark this as 10$ part.

Bitmain if you reading this-don't behave like spoiled kid. If you putting EU customers on landmine of extra costs because of your description on the box don't expect anything different back from customers.

I wonder what happened to "GAME GATEWAY" and silly 20£ per box?

Why Bitmain changed that for EU customers?

Not trolling but for all s1 extra charges for UPS probably i would have another 10 s1 or more.

Funny is that when price per s1 dropped charge by UPS didnt.

They doing what they want.

[goodney]

Will BITMAIN be selling bare chips to other manufactures?

-a[g

[xingqiaoyin]

Got thE message about RMA for bitmain and claim that they asking to mark this as 10$ part.

Bitmain if you reading this-don't behave like spoiled kid. If you putting EU customers on landmine of extra costs because of your description on the box don't expect anything different back from customers.

I wonder what happened to "GAME GATEWAY" and silly 20£ per box?

Why Bitmain changed that for EU customers?

Not trolling but for all s1 extra charges for UPS probably i would have another 10 s1 or more.

Funny is that when price per s1 dropped charge by UPS didnt.

They doing what they want.

They told me some customers got their miners confiscated because of undervalue.
Thanks to their popularity and massiVe sales, antminer is now in custom's spotlight

[cooldgamer]

Can't wait to get a pre-order on one of these.  Loving the power efficiency and dual fans.  Hopefully the pricing won't be too high so we'll actually have a shot at ROI..

[djjacket]

Can't wait to get a pre-order on one of these.  Loving the power efficiency and dual fans.  Hopefully the pricing won't be too high so we'll actually have a shot at ROI..

Agreed - If they could price them like the original S1's with regard to difficulty that would be great.

[spazzdla]

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa I'm getting these!


Do I upgrade my 4 S1's or just buy S3's................ ................ huum...................

[bittydude]

whats the s1 upgrade?