Dallas5 (OP)
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July 01, 2014, 01:20:24 PM |
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On a scale of 1 - 100, with 100 being full worldwide adoption and usage where does bitcoin stand?
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linelec
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July 01, 2014, 01:29:06 PM |
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1
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leezay
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SWISSREALCOIN - FIRST REAL ESTATE CRYPTO TOKEN
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July 01, 2014, 02:04:12 PM |
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1.
Still room to growth.
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zimmah
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July 01, 2014, 02:20:36 PM |
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0.07
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gentlemand
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Welt Am Draht
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July 01, 2014, 02:23:57 PM |
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0.0431.64
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lihuajkl
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July 01, 2014, 02:45:55 PM |
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Still at the beginning stage. I give 1
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jambola2
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July 01, 2014, 02:55:03 PM |
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DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)
Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.
There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.
If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-
7 billion = 10^9.845
Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-
300,000 = 10^5.477
That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.
All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)
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zimmah
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July 01, 2014, 03:07:49 PM |
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DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)
Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.
There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.
If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-
7 billion = 10^9.845
Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-
300,000 = 10^5.477
That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.
All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)
300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714 0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714% so 0.004285714 on his scale why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?
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jambola2
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July 01, 2014, 03:28:16 PM |
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DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)
Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.
There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.
If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-
7 billion = 10^9.845
Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-
300,000 = 10^5.477
That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.
All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)
300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714 0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714% so 0.004285714 on his scale why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic? Firstly , your idea itself is wrong , because it gives you a value below 1. I am considering it logarithmic because he has asked us for a status on progress as a whole. If what you are saying is correct , then if we continue at the current speed , global acceptance will occur in around 1.16 million years. If you consider my scale and assume that the same logarithmic speed continues , it will take 5 more years for Bitcoin to be globally accepted. (5 years so far , 5 more years to go) My idea is not very accurate , because it assumes that we can keep up this logarithmic pace. However , it is still more accurate than your scale when it comes to gauging Bitcoin.
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DooMAD
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July 01, 2014, 03:45:15 PM |
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I see alot of people saying 1, but I wouldn't go that far. Maybe three years ago it was a 1.
With a small number of the larger retailers getting on board, it's probably somewhere between 5 and 10 at least. I'll say 8. Warming up.
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. .HUGE. | | | | | | █▀▀▀▀ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ . CASINO & SPORTSBOOK ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ | ▀▀▀▀█ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ █ ▄▄▄▄█ | | |
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waldox
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July 01, 2014, 03:55:07 PM |
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3 million estimated bitcoiners out of 7 billion people in the world = 0.05/100
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Rooothlespredators
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July 01, 2014, 04:20:01 PM |
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3 it leveled up a few times
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wobber
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July 01, 2014, 04:41:47 PM |
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Adoption and usage is the important thing but what about people that heard about bitcoin? I'd say even 20 out 100 heard about it. But don't use it.
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IIOII
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July 01, 2014, 05:23:05 PM |
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I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.
So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.
Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.
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jambola2
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July 01, 2014, 06:06:02 PM |
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I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.
So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.
Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.
I think complete adoption is possible , or atleast 90%+ , though it is unlikely. Many Bitcoin users envision a scenario where Bitcoin is considered the global currency , like the Euro but for the entire world rather than just the EU. This is rather unlikely , but not impossible. I still don't understand how everyone is valuing it at 1 or below on the scale though -.-
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No longer active on bitcointalk, however, you can still reach me via PMs if needed.
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jambola2
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July 01, 2014, 06:15:08 PM |
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Adoption and usage is the important thing but what about people that heard about bitcoin? I'd say even 20 out 100 heard about it. But don't use it.
Okay , let me work on this to emphasize my point, There are a million people in city A. On day 1 , Nakamoto tell 9 friends about it , making it 10 adopters. ( 9 total new people ) On day 2 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 100 adopters ( 90 total new people ) On day 3 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000 adopters. ( 900 total new people ) ..... On day 6 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000,000 adopters. (900,000 total new people) Now , at day 3 , one friend decides to estimate their progress. He sees that it has been three days since it started. He says that 1000/1000,000 = 0.1% of people know about Bitcoin. They estimate that it will take 3 * 100/0.1 = 3000 more days for the entire city to know about Bitcoin , when in reality , it will take only 3 more days. However , in a realistic scenario , this will take a bit longer than 3 days , as by day 6 , a large proportion of the people each friend tells will have already heard of Bitcoin from someone else. Getting back to my point , the growth and rate of new members entering into Bitcoin is increasing exponentially. Price charts are shown in logarithmic scales , in order to make them readable. My prediction is based on the exponential growth of Bitcoin and asserts that we are halfway there. The prediction cannot be deemed accurate , because it is just a guess at best , but it is still more accurate than all the guesses of 1 so far. BE CONFIDENT IN BITCOIN ! WE HAVE COVERED FAR MORE GROUND THAN THE "1" YOU SAY
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No longer active on bitcointalk, however, you can still reach me via PMs if needed.
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zimmah
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July 01, 2014, 06:48:11 PM Last edit: July 01, 2014, 07:03:36 PM by zimmah |
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DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)
Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.
There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.
If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-
7 billion = 10^9.845
Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-
300,000 = 10^5.477
That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.
All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)
300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714 0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714% so 0.004285714 on his scale why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic? Firstly , your idea itself is wrong , because it gives you a value below 1. I am considering it logarithmic because he has asked us for a status on progress as a whole. If what you are saying is correct , then if we continue at the current speed , global acceptance will occur in around 1.16 million years. If you consider my scale and assume that the same logarithmic speed continues , it will take 5 more years for Bitcoin to be globally accepted. (5 years so far , 5 more years to go) My idea is not very accurate , because it assumes that we can keep up this logarithmic pace. However , it is still more accurate than your scale when it comes to gauging Bitcoin. you have a completely different interpretation of the scale than me and probably most of us. The way i interpreted it is that he is asking how much % we are compared to where we would be if everyone accepted bitcoin. Therefore, we are not even at 1% adoption, not even at 0.1% even. We're very, very early adopters and there's plenty of room to grow, so we're not even close to 1 on a scale of 1-100. also, neither of us is 'wrong' it's just you are counting time, and i am counting humans. i'd also say we're about halfway in time, but definitely not halfway in humans.
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tspacepilot
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July 01, 2014, 06:54:14 PM |
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DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)
Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.
There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.
If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-
7 billion = 10^9.845
Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-
300,000 = 10^5.477
That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.
All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)
300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714 0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714% so 0.004285714 on his scale why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic? Funny, if the 1-100 scale were logarithically interpreted, then I'd say 1. Otherwise I think we're probably still less than 1.
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Skele
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July 01, 2014, 07:03:44 PM |
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1 x 10^-7
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Ron~Popeil
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July 01, 2014, 07:12:14 PM |
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Maybe around a three with merchants coming online seemingly every day. Still a ways to go, but the pace will pick up exponentially.
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