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Author Topic: Got my BFL Single today and I'm raffling it away for 0.5BTC!  (Read 26702 times)
Matthew N. Wright
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March 16, 2012, 07:29:02 PM
 #321

Okay so what block number are we on right now?

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wogaut
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March 16, 2012, 07:29:57 PM
 #322

171436
...so I'd choose like two in the future whenever the spreadsheet is finished

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Gerald Davis


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March 16, 2012, 07:38:41 PM
 #323

171436
...so I'd choose like two in the future whenever the spreadsheet is finished


I would make it further out.  The further the block is out the more people who can review the list and possibly spot errors.  Would suck if there is an error in the list, someone wins and then people realize the error(s).  Do you have it stand, go again, etc.

I would say once list is published announce block # and make it 24 blocks out (~ 4 hours).
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March 16, 2012, 07:38:55 PM
 #324

171436
...so I'd choose like two in the future whenever the spreadsheet is finished


I guess I could wait one hour more too *sohardtowait*

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March 16, 2012, 07:42:14 PM
 #325

171436
...so I'd choose like two in the future whenever the spreadsheet is finished


I would make it further out.  The further the block is out the more people who can review the list and possibly spot errors.  Would suck if there is an error in the list, someone wins and then people realize the error(s).  Do you have it stand, go again, etc.

I would say once list is published announce block # and make it 24 blocks out (~ 4 hours).

I support, at least 24. Makes a round number. 171460



Matthew N. Wright
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March 16, 2012, 07:50:47 PM
 #326

171436
...so I'd choose like two in the future whenever the spreadsheet is finished


Spreadsheet is finished.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFpNdjFuQ0diUTkxV3ZTcnczb2RJN0E

The original, unhashed version (which includes invoices for verification at Bit-Pay has been sent to Theymos for records purposes and future scammer investigations, which I'm sure some sore loser will try to instigate at one point or another).


EDIT: Forgot to mention this, but I converted all of the email addresses to lowercase (wtf@people using different casing in email addresses anyway) so keep that in mind when searching for your address. Since I've already received a dozen complaints that someone couldn't find their email address and I've had to hold their hand and show them how, I won't be responding to complaints of that nature in the future.

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March 16, 2012, 07:55:09 PM
 #327

171436
...so I'd choose like two in the future whenever the spreadsheet is finished


Spreadsheet is finished.


Great, maybe we could agree on a block, like 171450, also a very round number in the future. Plenty of time to check the sheet until then.


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March 16, 2012, 07:57:38 PM
 #328

You sorted the list by the SHA, not sure I like that. I had 2 purchases sperated by quite a bit of time, I like the idea of the tickets for those not being in 1 block and 2 blocks of numbers.

Phil
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March 16, 2012, 07:59:39 PM
 #329

You sorted the list by the SHA, not sure I like that. I had 2 purchases sperated by quite a bit of time, I like the idea of the tickets for those not being in 1 block and 2 blocks of numbers.

Phil
It's exactly random and the same number of chances regardless of where they end up in the list...   Huh 
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March 16, 2012, 08:00:59 PM
 #330

You sorted the list by the SHA, not sure I like that. I had 2 purchases sperated by quite a bit of time, I like the idea of the tickets for those not being in 1 block and 2 blocks of numbers.

Phil

You do realize that it makes absolutely no difference statistically, right? Your odds of winning (or losing) are identical regardless of where or how your tickets are split within the total range.

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Matthew N. Wright
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March 16, 2012, 08:03:27 PM
 #331

You sorted the list by the SHA, not sure I like that. I had 2 purchases sperated by quite a bit of time, I like the idea of the tickets for those not being in 1 block and 2 blocks of numbers.

Phil

I sorted the list by email addresses actually. The SHA was after-the-fact.

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Gerald Davis


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March 16, 2012, 08:05:51 PM
 #332

Son what is the magic block #?

I need to set my block clock. Smiley 
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March 16, 2012, 08:06:03 PM
 #333

You sorted the list by the SHA, not sure I like that. I had 2 purchases sperated by quite a bit of time, I like the idea of the tickets for those not being in 1 block and 2 blocks of numbers.

Phil

You do realize that it makes absolutely no difference statistically, right? Your odds of winning (or losing) are identical regardless of where or how your tickets are split within the total range.

I realize that, I just generally prefer to have different blocks of tickets / numbers. Just my personal view.

Lets not stop the process. Lets move ahead of how it is currently.

Phil
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March 16, 2012, 08:06:57 PM
 #334

Son what is the magic block #?

I need to set my block clock. Smiley 

Same here  Grin

Matthew N. Wright
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March 16, 2012, 08:08:19 PM
 #335

The official block to determine the winning ticket number will be 171,450.

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March 16, 2012, 08:10:24 PM
 #336

The official block to determine the winning ticket number will be 171,450.

Set!

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theymos
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March 16, 2012, 08:10:42 PM
 #337

(last-10-digits-of-block-hash) % (number-of-tickets) = winning ticket number

The results of this aren't evenly distributed in most cases.

Say the random number is between 0 and 7, and there are 5 tickets from 0-4. Then the possible results are:
0 mod 5 = 0 (0 is the winner)
1 mod 5 = 1
2 mod 5 = 2
3 mod 5 = 3
4 mod 5 = 4
5 mod 5 = 0
6 mod 5 = 1
7 mod 5 = 2
As you can see, tickets 0-2 have a better chance than 3-4

For proper randomness, you actually need to re-roll when the random number is greater than your range of winners. This could be done by hashing the block hash again or choosing a different block. (There are probably other algorithms for properly distributing the randomness, but AFAIK they're always less efficient when generating random numbers and I don't know any such algorithms off-hand.)

1NXYoJ5xU91Jp83XfVMHwwTUyZFK64BoAD
DeathAndTaxes
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Gerald Davis


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March 16, 2012, 08:14:08 PM
 #338

Good point therymos although you just need to re-roll when the random number is > the largest even MULTIPLE of the ticket #.

i.e. there are 40270 tickets.  So for 0-40270 it is even.  0 to 2x(40270) is even 0 to n x (40270) is even.

The only issue is the "remainder" greater than the max multiple.

10 hex digits = 16^10 = 1099511627776


1099511627776 / 40270 = 27303492.12  (that last 0.12 is unfair)

So max valid random number is 40270 * 27303492 = 1099511622840

Matt a "fix" is simple and fair.

If the value of last 10 digits of the block hash is > 1099511622840 then it is a "no-go" and you use the next block.

Don't worry the odds of that happening are very small.  Only 1099511622841 to 1099511627776 are "bad".  4936 unfair numbers out of 1099511627776 or 0.0000004%



Matthew N. Wright
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March 16, 2012, 08:15:11 PM
 #339

If you guys complicate this any further I swear I'm going into PHP, typing

Code:
echo rand(0,41269);

and finishing this like a boss.

theymos
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March 16, 2012, 08:15:50 PM
 #340

Good point therymos although you just need to re-roll when the random number is > the largest even MULTIPLE of the ticket #.

Right. I was assuming that the max random number would be chosen to be the smallest power of two larger than the largest ticket.

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