Is this for real?

[AndDuffy]

So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

[notme]

So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

Good luck with that.

Also, how does being oversold lead to a sharp downturn?

[waveaddict]

So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike. Right now, we're seeing very little market activity as people are likely sitting on their coins waiting for another spike.

At first glance I thought that we'd see another rise, less sharp than the first one, but still relatively steep. Looking at it again though, I think that this inflated price we have now is extremely artificial. One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

"So, this recent spike in the price of bitcoins was largely caused by one very large purchase. There was a slight rise in price after that, although that was likely due to people covering shorts and overreacting to the artificial spike."

--that is pretty much how every sharp rise or fall in bitcoin has transpired.

"I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn."

--and what is your evidence for this?

[phorensic]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UYwOIvOrao

[proudhon]

Come on market!  Somebody just sold like 6K BTCs.  You should respond now by panicing.  (into my bids, kthnx)

Edit:  Also, remember everyone, it's still the weekend! 

[kjlimo]

I agree that large buys & sales of 20k+ coins can move the price a good 20 cents or so.  We've seen that plenty.

However, who do we think is making these orders?

Are they all exchanges or speculators individually getting bitcoins just to store value, or do we think these are the large businesses getting fiat to pay bills?

Or are they miners each dumping their mined coins at random points in time?

how many large players can really be out there for non speculative reasons?

[legitnick]

Price goes up, price goes down. You can't explain that.

[Oldminer]

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

[waveaddict]

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

and how do you know this 

[deepceleron]

One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

That purchaser used up the supply of people willing to sell their bitcoins below $5 each.

[notme]

One large purchase can't truly reflect the supply and demand. I think we'll see the price steadily fall from here, followed by a sharp downturn once people realize how oversold we are. In fact, I think we'll be testing a $4 floor again soon.

Thoughts?

That purchaser used up the supply of people willing to sell their bitcoins below $5 each.

+1

[AndDuffy]

I don't mean to say I told you so.

But... I told you so.

[guruvan]

Seems actually fairly normal for a low market cap issue. Large player comes in, huge buy order, move the price massively, waits for the calm, sell off half to 2/3s of the position, rinse repeat, build a very large position, print money

[smoothie]

Your not going to see a real major rally while the price sits @ $5. To rally people really need to want it & @ $5 no-one really wants it.

Wow how wrong you were on this.

The price stabilizing between $4 and $5 says people are hanging on to bitcoins. Oh and also the price rise to $11.30 recently.

How's that IXCOIN investment coming??

 

[sgbett]

N-n-n-necro Breaker...

[niko]

We should make it a habit to revive old threads with predictions.

[ElectricMucus]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98829.0

[sgbett]

We should make it a habit to revive old threads with predictions.

I know the accepted etiquette, but these are very special circumstances. (also I've been reading history and have *not* necro'd about 500 posts that I wanted to as I was looking back this evening, so...)

Here is the most important thing to know: the public are always the last to get on board.

Back then, the public were oblivious. The public derided and mocked (see slashdot, motley fool etc), the public had no idea what Bitcoin was or what it could do.

Contrast that to now - here on BCT (more of the public than ever registered), and e.g twitter - the public are convinced - they are all in on BTC.

That's the same public that didn't know back then. That's the same public that doesn't know now.

What don't they know? They don't know what Bitcoin is, what it can do. They were not registered here back in the day, more are now. They are not registered in the places where Bitcoin is discussed (as it was back then) now. They did not know this place existed back then, as they do not know of places now. They did not recognise opportunity back then, as they do not now.

Mark it well *the public are always the last ones*

First comes the smart money, then comes the institutional investors, only then will the public join later, once everything has been spelled out to them. Once the market has already moved.

This is information asymmetry, it has always been about knowing, before anyone else.

What was there to know back then? and what did "the public" think about that?

What is there to know now? and what does "the public" think about that?

The public are not on your side, the public do not want you to know. The public must, at all costs, be last.

[thecodebear]

We should make it a habit to revive old threads with predictions.

I know the accepted etiquette, but these are very special circumstances. (also I've been reading history and have *not* necro'd about 500 posts that I wanted to as I was looking back this evening, so...)

Here is the most important thing to know: the public are always the last to get on board.

Back then, the public were oblivious. The public derided and mocked (see slashdot, motley fool etc), the public had no idea what Bitcoin was or what it could do.

Contrast that to now - here on BCT (more of the public than ever registered), and e.g twitter - the public are convinced - they are all in on BTC.

That's the same public that didn't know back then. That's the same public that doesn't know now.

What don't they know? They don't know what Bitcoin is, what it can do. They were not registered here back in the day, more are now. They are not registered in the places where Bitcoin is discussed (as it was back then) now. They did not know this place existed back then, as they do not know of places now. They did not recognise opportunity back then, as they do not now.

Mark it well *the public are always the last ones*

First comes the smart money, then comes the institutional investors, only then will the public join later, once everything has been spelled out to them. Once the market has already moved.

This is information asymmetry, it has always been about knowing, before anyone else.

What was there to know back then? and what did "the public" think about that?

What is there to know now? and what does "the public" think about that?

The public are not on your side, the public do not want you to know. The public must, at all costs, be last.

Which is why my coworkers laugh at me when I tell them I accumulated a ton of bitcoin during the bottom this Fall/Winter (or tell me to sell immediately any day that bitcoin goes up a tiny bit, and then laugh at me when I tell them I'm looking for more like 2500% returns from here, not 2.5% haha). They are the public, the 99%+ who aren't in bitcoin yet and will be the last to get in. We are smart money. Institutional money will slowly start to get in soon (and already is in a tiny tiny bit). Anyone even just getting in now is still smart money, even though they didn't get in way back in 2012 at 1/1000th the current price (few did as hardly anyone even knew about bitcoin back then, including me) when this thread was started, because more than 99% of people still aren't in. Anyone who doesn't know much about bitcoin telling someone who does know about bitcoin that bitcoin is a bad idea is indeed part of this public that will be the last to enter. That's how you know to not listen to them. If you are knowledgable enough about bitcoin to be smart money you should be able to tell the difference between yourself and those that represent the "dumb" money - ie those who will yet refuse to get in for a long time.

[sgbett]

Apologies if I misconstrue, but I think it's a mistake to surmise that:

Everyone not in Bitcoin => The public
Everyone already in Bitcoin => Smart money

I would ask you to open your mind to the possibility that "everyone in bitcoin" is not a homogenous group.

I think its fairly incontrovertible to posit some example attributes, people that:

a) bought in at $1 in 2011
b) bought in at $20k in 2017
c) bought BTC because they read the white paper and saw the potential of the technology
d) bought BTC because they saw the price action and thought they could make some easy money

These are extremes, there are various shades in between, and being in e.g people in group a, are not automatically in c, and may be more towards d. People in b could also be c, but just real unlucky on timing (but, if they are in no way d, the short term price action won't bother them).

The specific make up of the group is difficult to ascertain, but from these premises one can induce that the cohort of people in bitcoin consists of people who are more or less informed about bitcoin, who have varying reasons for being in bitcoin.

I put it to you that there is in this cohort people who might be considered "smart money", "institutional investors" and "the public"

The smart money perhaps tend more towards some function of a & c
The public are the ones that perhaps tend more towards b & d

So what I was trying to explain in my earlier post, was that those currently in bitcoin that are considered "the public" are in fact not smart money. They never were.

I put it to you that the majority of the (d) sub group do not know what bitcoin is, and furthermore don't even care. So I disagree that everyone in bitcoin is smart money.

The smart money, knows what bitcoin is and why it is valuable. It recognises opportunity (as it did back then, when "the public" did not). As it does now, when "the public" does not.

There is an element of "the public" in Bitcoin and what I'm trying to tell you is that you *should* listen to them, because they are revealing to you what "the public" thinks.

If you understand what "the public" thinks, then you are in a position to avoid being a part of that group. As we already identified, "the public" is always last.

What is it that the smart money knows? What is "the public" *not* interested in?

I've been posting for close on 8 years, and in that time I have not wavered in my belief and understanding. Check my history I always thought Bitcoin could be something big. That it's economic model was sound then, and remains so to this day. It continues to grow, and recent developments with metanet building out on top of the Bitcoin base layer have made me more confident than ever in its potential to revolutionise humanity.

This is the red/blue blue pill moment. Once you see what metanet is, what it does, there is no looking back.

This genie cannot be put back in the bottle.

I wish you luck, traveller.