[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread

[btc2nxt]

LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 

[1714036107]

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[1714036107]

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[1714036107]

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[nakaone]

I smell a bet here....

have to think about it - if I only use xmr it is quite a win win

edit: maybe we can do it - give me 2-3 days. I do not have ltc but a few xmr. I am also an uberbull regarding xmr but I think this estimation is too optimistic

[iourzzz]

I smell a bet here....

have to think about it - if I only use xmr it is quite a win win

edit: maybe we can do it - give me 2-3 days. I do not have ltc but a few xmr. I am also an uberbull regarding xmr but I think this estimation is too optimistic

I have few friends who still hold ltc for a long time and have a hope it will rise again someday. After short introduction to XMR and showing them few posts from this thread they have started to buy and thinking about exiting ltc.

[fran2k]

Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.

Currently:

LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.

XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.


- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.

- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.

- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.

- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).

- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.

- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.

Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.


LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.

After making the calculations, it seems that it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only 2015-2-22.

Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.

I smell a bet here....

Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

[rpietila]

LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

[thefunkybits]

Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

Litecoin & Monero are similar in that they both took a shitcoin idea (LTC- Tenebrix\XMR- Bytecoin), optimized the code and marketed a little better with a fair mining launch. LTC was "innovative" and new and has been a success for the past couple years and I think rpietila is on the right track with thinking that XMR can potentially fill that gap in the years to come

[aminorex]

Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

Litecoin & Monero are similar in that they both took a shitcoin idea (LTC- Tenebrix\XMR- Bytecoin), optimized the code and marketed a little better with a fair mining launch. LTC was "innovative" and new and has been a success for the past couple years and I think rpietila is on the right track with thinking that XMR can potentially fill that gap in the years to come

This is bound to be controversial on a bitcoin forum.  It took me months to fully come to terms with the notion.  At this point I am quite convinced:  A privacy-enabled crypto will displace bitcoin.  Of all potential candidates for this role, only Monero has leadership qualities, and indeed has an actual, realized marketcap leadership among its peers - as many predicted long before it became manifest.  At present it leads among its peers by roughtly the same factor that LTC currently leads XMR.  And BTC leads LTC by roughly the same factor again.

What proportion of your transactions actually benefit from being made part of a permanent public record?  I can think of none, with the possible exception of payments in full for real estate or other titled goods.  As a liquidity vehicle, monero is fundamentally superior to bitcoin, because it is better adapted to the needs of economic transactions as we know them today, by virtue of supporting privacy. Being better fit for the niche, it will out-compete bitcoin in the long run, ceteris paribus.  There is yet no "moat" adequate to defend in this case.  What is left to be done is more like eating an elephant.  It is a large task, but with patience and persistence it is entirely achievable, one bite at a time.

It is easier to say that XMR can displace LTC.  It will be more popular.  Indeed, it will necessarily happen first.  But to be fully honest, I have to say it's a low ambition for XMR.  Certainly it is one which would benefit me greatly.  Still, it is a very low ambition - and even that will take many, many mouthfuls of elephant to accomplish.

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

A privacy-enabled crypto will displace bitcoin.

A low-brow response:

1.  GMAIL reads your email.  Top email provider for last three years.

2.  I was on Linkedin yesterday, and found among my connections a psychiatrist I visited 6 years ago!  How the fuck did they get that?  Linkedin is tops in something.  (When Linkedin first came out I thought it was about kilns for a couple years).

My low-brow conclusion from this vast data set:  Low-brows go "huh?" about privacy.  

My assertion:  there are more low-brows than not.  

EDIT:  Facebook

[aminorex]

My assertion:  there are more low-brows than not.  

Mine:  They don't have the money power.  These are people who willingly sacrifice their power for candy.

[ArticMine]

LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

Which begs the questions: How will XMR/XBT perform in the next XBT/USD boom when compared to the performance of LTC/XBT during the last XBT/USD boom in November 2013? Is using past LTC/XBT performance as a possible indicator of future XMR/XBT performance here possible or even relevant?

[iourzzz]

LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

Which begs the questions: How will XMR/XBT perform in the next XBT/USD boom when compared to the performance of LTC/XBT during the last XBT/USD boom in November 2013? Is using past LTC/XBT performance as a possible indicator of future XMR/XBT performance here possible or even relevant?

I think it's probably possible scenario. But we should take into account that LTC was quite artificially pumped by few concerned influential persons. LTC is loosing its momentum as well as some other quite strong alts. Monero in opposite is getting more and more attention. So it's easy to assume that probably some of the same figures will try to make use of Monero to achieve similar goals and will catalyze its internal ignition with much stronger long time potential based on its real benefits.

[aminorex]

Has anyone attempted to estimate how many coins have been dumped (vs. mined) since distribution began?

[darlidada]

Has anyone attempted to estimate how many coins have been dumped (vs. mined) since distribution began?

Not sure if it can be of any worth, but ive calculated the volume for every month and the top to bottom volume:

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222 (so far)


The last 3 top to bottom volume:  5432 (from 8 to 1,75) 5178 (from 10 to 2,3) 6081 (from 5,8 to today)


did this very quickly, numbers can be off by ~10 btcs

[ArticMine]

...
I think it's probably possible scenario. But we should take into account that LTC was quite artificially pumped by few concerned influential persons. LTC is loosing its momentum as well as some other quite strong alts. Monero in opposite is getting more and more attention. So it's easy to assume that probably some of the same figures will try to make use of Monero to achieve similar goals and will catalyze its internal ignition with much stronger long time potential based on its real benefits.

I prefer to take a longer term view and doubt that LTC was artificially pumped to coincide with XBT/USD booms and a similar pump was applied to NMC and PPC. I include a quote from another thread that show the market behaviour LTC, NMC, PPC and possibly DOGE during past XBT/USD booms. This is pure market speculation at its best or worst depending on the point of view, across more than one XBT/USD boom and several alt-coins. Nxtbig adds some very useful insight with a similar phenomenon observed in gold mining stocks.

The pattern for those alt-coins that have been around for a while is a sharp spike upwards in price when compared to BTC during a BTC boom. Here are some examples:

Litecoin: LTC/BTC http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e
Namecoin: NMC/BTC http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=nmc-btc&market=btc-e
Peercoin: PPC/BTC http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ppc-btc&market=btc-e

Dogecoin DOGE/BTC is really interesting here since it was launched right in the middle of a BTC boom. http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=doge-btc&market=cryptsy It is hard to see on the chart but this is a brutal bear market since its inception. The moral here is do not launch your alt in the middle of a BTC boom because in a few months it will look really awful.

I would go as far as to say that skyrocketing alt-coin prices in terms of BTC can be an indicator of a BTC/USD top. The trick is finding the right alt-coin since the vast majority are totally worthless and only very few have a chance of doing anything, but there can be a play here.

Thank you for your data mining. That pattern jibes with what I've seen in the gold part of the stock market: when gold's well down the bull track, the major producers go up, the juniors go up a lot, and the few exploration-level penny stocks that capture the punters' excitement explode.

Same on the downside, too. '11-'12 saw the majors getting whacked, the juniors getting whomped, and all-out carnage in the exploration-penny subsector.

I'm not kidding about the last. The pennies were hit so hard, the Venture Stock Exchange had to officially suspend a rule that prohibits secondary offerings by its listees whose stock price is below five cents. Yes, five cents.

Had the Venture board not done so, a lot of viable exploration micros would have had to hire bankruptcy lawyers. I'm quite serious about this.  

The past market behaviours of LTC, NMC and PPC may be able to provide an insight into the possible market behaviour of XMR during a XBT/USD boom.

[aminorex]

..numbers...

Using bogus assumptions, gross simplification, and fallacious reasoning i can turn your numbers into an estimate of when the bottom arrives:

2.787 mm float

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222
21900 btc. est vwap 0051, 4.294mm xmr volume

The last 3 top to bottom volume: sum  16691 weighted .0051
 5432 (from 8 to 1,75)      1.113mm  .00488
 5178 (from 10 to 2,3)        .842mm  .00615
 6081 (from 5,8 to today) 1.382mm .00440
3.337 mm distributing
4.294 - 3.337 = 0.957mm accummulating
3.337 - 0.957 = 2.384mm net sold
2.787 - 2.384 = 0.403mm of all xmr untraded
1.382mm/31d = .045mm/d distribution rate→9 days supply remaining

so somewhere between 0 and 9 days of distribution are possible.  I say 0 as I would be shocked if strong hands did not already hold 400k xmr. I think the bottom is now behind us.

Time to load up the truck.

[dnaleor]

reading this thread makes me an uber bull... But already 33% of my crypto is invested (at current prices) in Monero  
Think that is enough... If XMR succeeds, I will benefit

thx for the numbers guys! very usefull
Taking over LTC in market cap is possible I think... LTC doesn't has a unique selling proposition anymore (now that we have scrypt ASICs) and regulation will make it hard for people to have "hidden coins" on a transparent blockchain like bitcoin. There is a market for private currencies, like Monero.

[whoknowsthisnose]

As traders and trodlers know, sometimes the handling of Monero seems to be a bit special for exchanges and users. Forgotten payment-id, blockchain not syncronized etc. are every-day-events, as I know, because most of my own trading is with Moneros.

Then you need support and find that there are large differences in the quality of support. This has motivated me to open a thread "quality comparison of the exchanges' support":

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=743446.0

I want to invite all of you to report your experiences with the support of whatever exchange you are using, as a helpful support for other users and - hopefully - inspiration for the exchanges to improve their support.

[statdude]

..numbers...

Using bogus assumptions, gross simplification, and fallacious reasoning i can turn your numbers into an estimate of when the bottom arrives:

2.787 mm float

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222
21900 btc. est vwap 0051, 4.294mm xmr volume

The last 3 top to bottom volume: sum  16691 weighted .0051
 5432 (from 8 to 1,75)      1.113mm  .00488
 5178 (from 10 to 2,3)        .842mm  .00615
 6081 (from 5,8 to today) 1.382mm .00440
3.337 mm distributing
4.294 - 3.337 = 0.957mm accummulating
3.337 - 0.957 = 2.384mm net sold
2.787 - 2.384 = 0.403mm of all xmr untraded
1.382mm/31d = .045mm/d distribution rate→9 days supply remaining

so somewhere between 0 and 9 days of distribution are possible.  I say 0 as I would be shocked if strong hands did not already hold 400k xmr. I think the bottom is now behind us.

Time to load up the truck.

Just on this topic:

Based on volume from Poloniex, net buys minus net sells since June 5th is roughly minus 150k XMR.

This selling has been especially strong since the recent rally. - Much stronger than the previous low.

[Okurkabinladin]

So did we finally broke the downtrend? Monero seems to be remarkably stable over the last few days, while almost every other crypto is tanking.

[Jungian]

So did we finally broke the downtrend? Monero seems to be remarkably stable over the last few days, while almost every other crypto is tanking.

Insallah! It's a real slaughterhouse going on in the alt-scene. DRK soon down 90% from top.