How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years?

[Ektra]

OK>.. NOW you are getting a little wishy washy.  Which scenario are you predicting the BIG grand one or the CRASH one?  Can't we have some kind of middle-ground and reasonable prediction?  It is the uneasy feeling that i get when I hear people predicting that BTC is all or nothing... that is ridiculous in my thinking b/c there is quite a bit in the middle that seems just as probable as the all or nothing predictions.

For what it's worth, here are two quotes from Satoshi that explain the all or nothing mindset:

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume."

Feb. 18, 2009: "As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.

It just seems hard to imagine any 'success' scenario where said success doesn't then cause even more users to jump on board and thus pump up the value to ultimately massive highs. This should hold true as long as bitcoin remains strong in network effects and technological superiority over fiat. I would say the public would have to become apathetic to bitcoin for it to top out at a 'good but sort of moderate' value, which is unlikely given the disruptive nature of it.

[JayJuanGee]

OK>.. NOW you are getting a little wishy washy.  Which scenario are you predicting the BIG grand one or the CRASH one?  Can't we have some kind of middle-ground and reasonable prediction?  It is the uneasy feeling that i get when I hear people predicting that BTC is all or nothing... that is ridiculous in my thinking b/c there is quite a bit in the middle that seems just as probable as the all or nothing predictions.

For what it's worth, here are two quotes from Satoshi that explain the all or nothing mindset:

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume."

Feb. 18, 2009: "As the number of users grows, the value per coin increases. It has the potential for a positive feedback loop; as users increase, the value goes up, which could attract more users to take advantage of the increasing value.

It just seems hard to imagine any 'success' scenario where said success doesn't then cause even more users to jump on board and thus pump up the value to ultimately massive highs. This should hold true as long as bitcoin remains strong in network effects and technological superiority over fiat. I would say the public would have to become apathetic to bitcoin for it to top out at a 'good but sort of moderate' value, which is unlikely given the disruptive nature of it.

Citing to authority regarding the ludicrous nature of the all or nothing concept does NOT bring it greater legitimacy. 

I agree and I have NO problem with the disruptive technology of bitcoin, and I have NO problem with the concept of exponential growth caused by adoption and networking - however, for the most part, the world does NOT work in all or nothing .. there are transition periods... and even if bitcoin is revolutionary and takes over a large segment of the financial world, money transmission and the storage of value, it is going to take a bit of time to arrive at that point - the btc infrastructure is JUST NOT ready at this time to go to $1million per BTC and I doubt it can handle $20k per BTC, at this time.  Accordingly, there is going to be some transition and there is going to be some up and down in the BTC market prices.

ON the other hand, there could be a technological glitch that causes BTC to go to zero; however, there are other potential outcomes, including governmental and bank hostility to attempt to cause BTC to go underground, which could cause lower prices (but NOT zero).

[Marbit]

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.

These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features.

But how to you assign a number value to that? I'm not saying that these things don't provide immense value, and I'm not dismissing the targets. I just don't see how one can make those sorts of projections.

[Mybitcoinz]

Depends on the future price of bitcoins obviously, but I think that everything bigger than 100 btc should be fine.

[windjc]

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.

These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features.

But how to you assign a number value to that? I'm not saying that these things don't provide immense value, and I'm not dismissing the targets. I just don't see how one can make those sorts of projections.

$40k is only around 65x times current value. So I believe bitcoins utility can grow 65x it's current rate over next 5-20 years. That's not wild and crazy.

[Horse Power]

In your opinion how many Bitcoins would someone need today in order to retire by August 03 2019 or Aug 03 2020?

Assume average North American, requiring $30,000 per year of today's purchasing power, no other debt.

i think i should got 500kusd . i should life free.
bitcoin its super strong,

[JayJuanGee]

Look. If fiat survives and I absolutely positively believe it will,
bitcoin will never have the purchasing power of today's $1 million. And purchasing power, not exchange rate is all that ever matters. $40k is a possibility in next 5-20 years IMO.

What kind of data do you look at to come to this conclusion? I can't imagine $40k, let alone $1 million (that's not to say they aren't possible, just that I can't wrap my head around it). They all just seem like wild guesses to me.

These are NOT wild guesses, if we are considering the market cap and how much storage of wealth could be contained within the bitcoin and also used for value transmission, plus additional public ledger features.

But how to you assign a number value to that? I'm not saying that these things don't provide immense value, and I'm not dismissing the targets. I just don't see how one can make those sorts of projections.

$40k is only around 65x times current value. So I believe bitcoins utility can grow 65x it's current rate over next 5-20 years. That's not wild and crazy.

O.k.  I agree with WindJC's above explanation.

 Marbit, if you read through various above discussions in this thread including a bunch of my speculations regarding how market cap relates to price, we can envision a large number of scenarios in which BTC's market cap has to go up in order to accommodate the increasing use, network effect and all of that.  You can look at the growth of any budding technology or innovation and you will see gianormous increases in value as these new innovations are developing and from the early adoption stages into their later stages... Bitcoin brings a lot of innovations to the table, and if you have studies BTC the network (rather than merely BTC the currency), you can  come to appreciate the multiple innovations that BTC brings to the table.. and appreciate that BTC is far and beyond (at the moment) the king of cryptos. 

Surely bitcoin may NOT accomplish as much growth as it is hyped up to achieve and it may be surplanted, but that does NOT mean that the potential is NOT there or that we are engaging in wild and crazy speculations in order to achieve these kinds of numbers, especially numbers in the $10k to $50k range within the coming years. 

I personally think it is wild and crazy (but not impossible) to expect $1 million value in 5 years, but $10K to $50K is totally within realistic and doable parameters.

The answer to your question about putting numbers on each BTC seems to have already been answered, no?  We are NOT merely talking about the price of 1 BTC b/c that is a fairly random unit, and maybe the BTC space should adopt a different unit of value, but we need to think about the BTC space as a whole and as a network and its market cap.  I think you put numbers on this price per BTC by considering the systems that BTC would be replacing, competing with and/or supplanting as it gains in popularity (that is gold, western union, pay pal, credit cards, banks, various currencies, etc).  There is value in getting into that currency, value transmittal and storage of value space.

[Febo]

I will say 80 BTC. But i dont need that much of a luxury. Make sure to have double of this for yourself.

[BitcoinMillionaire]

Depends on the future price of bitcoins obviously, but I think that everything bigger than 100 btc should be fine.

So you guess I may be fine? I sometimes worry I can't continue my lifestyle when I retire. You know, that I don't have enough money for the relaxing years of my life!

[azguard]

Everything is fine ass long ass the price goes up dont you all think.

Maybe it will be 1BTC for price of 100K maybe not anyway every one have his own mind on this.

[thehappybtc]

I think you will need more than 100 btc to retire, maybe more than 1000.
In 5-6 years bitcoin could peak at 50,000$ and then drop to 100$ if an altcoin will became the new numer one.

[JayJuanGee]

Depends on the future price of bitcoins obviously, but I think that everything bigger than 100 btc should be fine.

So you guess I may be fine? I sometimes worry I can't continue my lifestyle when I retire. You know, that I don't have enough money for the relaxing years of my life!

BitcoinMillionaire:  You did NOT say how many coins you have.  I would presume that if you are proclaiming to be a bitcoin millionnaire then currently you have at least 2,000 BTC..... which should be enough in the coming years, and it should be enough to begin to live off of them now. .and to withdraw NO more than 5% per year.

[scarsbergholden]

Depends on the future price of bitcoins obviously, but I think that everything bigger than 100 btc should be fine.

So you guess I may be fine? I sometimes worry I can't continue my lifestyle when I retire. You know, that I don't have enough money for the relaxing years of my life!

BitcoinMillionaire:  You did NOT say how many coins you have.  I would presume that if you are proclaiming to be a bitcoin millionnaire then currently you have at least 2,000 BTC..... which should be enough in the coming years, and it should be enough to begin to live off of them now. .and to withdraw NO more than 5% per year.

Something tells me that BitcoinMillionaire doesn't have at least 2,000 BTC. Just a little hunch.

I got 10 to my name -- hoping that's enough to retire someday, LOL.

[Carra23]

I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.

Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

But there can be unforseen risks. Some of my investments might tank, there might be a big crisis. 10m is fine, except that I want to be doubly sure. Once I get addicted to that lifestyle there is no coming back.

[Biodom]

I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.

Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

Once I get addicted to that lifestyle there is no coming back.

Of course there is (coming back). In 2000, as internet bubble started bursting, I remember reading an interview of some B2B CEO who did not sell any of his shares, apparently believing his own verbiage about his stock. He had more than a billion in it (it was when B2B IPos were going up 900% on the first day). the stock eventually went to nothing. Going from a billion to nothing is harsh, but from 20 mil to 10, meh.

[JayJuanGee]

I will need at least 20-30 million to retire, otherwise it will not be a fun enough retirement. Considering the number I hold, Bitcoin has to go through massive bubbles to achieve this

Right now just look it as disposable extra money which is a bonus to my normal income.

Either you must be a kid - who has NO real idea or experience(s) regarding the life-draining aspects of working (of course there will be some variation in the degree to which work is life-draining), or on the other hand, currently, you may just be a work-a-holic who thinks that a person gets meaning through work?  On the other hand (am I running out of hands?), you have a real high standard of living (and you believe that you need to continue to maintain such).  There are a lot of ways to retire on much less than some abstract $20-30 million - just consider that $1 million can generate about $4k per month gross in interest (or appreciation), and $10 million can generate 10X that.  Most people can figure out a way to live fairly comfortable between $1 and $10 million, and certainly, there may be reasons that a person has preferences to have a monthly income higher than $40k - but to me, as I already explained, it seems a bit pie in the sky or maybe motivated by other unstated reasons to feel that you need to acquire more than $10million.

I am not really an workaholic, but I do somewhat like the work. I know once I give up work there is no turning back. The point is if I take the step it has to be really worthwhile, and enough reserves so that I don't have to think about working again.

But really, $20-30 million?  Even $5-10 million of assets generating passive income of $20 to 40K per month and then you can do whatever you like, pretty much... Beyond $10million, just seems to be overkill, unless you have a specific reason for such.

But there can be unforseen risks. Some of my investments might tank, there might be a big crisis. 10m is fine, except that I want to be doubly sure. Once I get addicted to that lifestyle there is no coming back.

HELLO??   That is why you live within your means (live within the means of the passive income of the investment), and diversify the principle and possibly even continue to reinvest a portion of your income (meaning do NOT withdraw it). 

The extent to which you draw into your principle depends in part on your expectations and calculations regarding how long you expect to live or how many years you will be needing to draw income off of the principle.   

You should be able to easily live within your means between $5 and $10 million (that is between $20k and $40k per month).... If we are talking about amounts below $2million (b/c that would be less than $8k per month), then it may become a little more difficult, but it should be considerably manageable to figure out a way to live within your means and to allow the principle to continue to increase in value - especially when we are getting into the $5million and above arenas.

In any event with $5 to $10 million in principle, you should be able to figure out a way to live off of half of the interest (that is between $20k/2 and $40k/2 = $10K and $20k per month).  therefore, the principle will continue to increase in value, and you can continue to increase the amount of your withdrawal as your principle continues to grow.  Then you will have more money later in life and also a cushion and also the principle to fall back upon for your final years.

I repeat that if you need more than $10million as principle, then you should specify a reason for such need for more b/c merely stating that there could be unforeseen risks means that you have failed to adequately plan and/or to diversity and/or to live within your means.

[sed]

The real topic of this thread is too vague for anyone to answer for anyone but him/herself.  I mean, if you have a huge vegetable garden and you have some goats then maybe you make cheese from you goats' milk and maybe you eat the vegetables from your garden and maybe you don't have to pay for food so that might be a huge expenditure for others that you don't pay.  Alternatively, maybe you have a mortgage on your home or maybe you don't.  There are too many factors in order to say generally how much money someone needs to "retire" much less how much money one needs in btc.

[Wary]

The real topic of this thread is too vague for anyone to answer for anyone but him/herself.  I mean, if you have a huge vegetable garden and you have some goats then maybe you make cheese from you goats' milk and maybe you eat the vegetables from your garden and maybe you don't have to pay for food so that might be a huge expenditure for others that you don't pay.  Alternatively, maybe you have a mortgage on your home or maybe you don't.  There are too many factors in order to say generally how much money someone needs to "retire" much less how much money one needs in btc.

It's vague only if one reads the thread title, but doesn't read the opening post. OP exactly specifies the required amount: annual income of 30K USD in today's purchasing power.

[Unluckyduck]

Depends whether or not you want to cash them all out upon quitting your job or sell them off over a period of time.

[CEG5952]

I think $40k is certainly achievable, but I'm just not sure on the time frame. 5-6 years, maybe not, but I'm planning on setting aside a retirement fund of ~25 BTC.