How many Bitcoins needed to retire in 5-6 years?

[ThatDGuy]

Ummm I think in 5 years, you'll be good with about 11 BTC or so... We'll see 3-7 bubbles by then and should be headed to $150000 USD by then... Which would be enough to retire. Maybe not with a mansion, but you'll be fine. But don't take my word for it, only speculation

I'm bullish on BTC, but more than 3 (maaaaaybe 4) bubbles in the next 5 years seems unlikely, given current awareness and such a short timeline.   

Yeah, you could be right. But I tend to be uber-bullish at times. The whole Bitcoin scene just has something exciting about it. It's like back in the good old 80s man, everything's in motion and about to explode upwards on the charts!

Totally agree with you there - I've been surprised by BTC constantly, and it's consistently exceeded "realistic" expectations of mine on quite a few occasions.  I hope I'm wrong again haha!

[toxiclabs45]

it is never enough with bitcoin

[vuduchyld]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional. 

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020. 

[futureazy]

Maybe if bitcoin will drop after 2016 you will need 5000 btc to retire, everthing can happen...

[fran2k]

21 bitcoins, 1 millionth. Is my magic number.

Or any 10x of that

[Ayers]

Maybe if bitcoin will drop after 2016 you will need 5000 btc to retire, everthing can happen...

it can also skyrocket to 100k after the first block reward, and you will only need 10, but that is a bit pretentious, from both sides

[Its About Sharing]

I'd bet that 1 BTC could be worth $25,000 - $100,000 in 5-6 years (At todays USD value of course). So, do the math from there.
Those numbers will be MUCH higher if the banking system goes as it looks like it might. (If it goes, start multiplying those number by 10 for a start.)
A big IF is if these criminals don't start another big war. Sure looks like they are trying...

Anything more than I need to live relatively simply, is going to be given away (for helping /and/ further distruption),
After all,
Its about sharing

[JayJuanGee]

it is never enough with bitcoin

And?? explain yourself.        

[JayJuanGee]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional. 

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020. 

You may be correct that we need to be more realistic and less bullish; however, to characterize various more bullish scenarios as a ridiculous parody seems to aim at insulting us rather than attempting to accept that other people have differing perspectives and calculations... In the end, you may be correct, but that does NOT really mean that you have any more realistic and meaningful perspective than the large majority of other posters in this thread.  And, that "art are holier than thou" seems to be the overall tone that you are projecting in your above post.

[JayJuanGee]

I'd bet that 1 BTC could be worth $25,000 - $100,000 in 5-6 years (At todays USD value of course). So, do the math from there.
Those numbers will be MUCH higher if the banking system goes as it looks like it might. (If it goes, start multiplying those number by 10 for a start.)
A big IF is if these criminals don't start another big war. Sure looks like they are trying...

Anything more than I need to live relatively simply, is going to be given away (for helping /and/ further distruption),
After all,
Its about sharing

+1    I appreciate your sense of civic responsibility..

[vuduchyld]

You may be correct that we need to be more realistic and less bullish; however, to characterize various more bullish scenarios as a ridiculous parody seems to aim at insulting us rather than attempting to accept that other people have differing perspectives and calculations... In the end, you may be correct, but that does NOT really mean that you have any more realistic and meaningful perspective than the large majority of other posters in this thread.  And, that "art are holier than thou" seems to be the overall tone that you are projecting in your above post.

JayJuanGee, I apologize for my post.  I certainly did not mean to project myself as being holier than anybody.  Buddha knows that my own inventory is pretty far from perfect. 

I was certainly offering a different perspective...and maybe busting balls a little too much.  But I would never intentionally hold myself out on an anonymous forum (or hopefully anywhere) as being better than anybody.

I'm sorry to JJG and to anybody who took offense.  If I ever offend you again, please just read the post in the voice of a slightly drunken pirate, staggering around a little bit and with no inhibitions due to the rum.

[JayJuanGee]

You may be correct that we need to be more realistic and less bullish; however, to characterize various more bullish scenarios as a ridiculous parody seems to aim at insulting us rather than attempting to accept that other people have differing perspectives and calculations... In the end, you may be correct, but that does NOT really mean that you have any more realistic and meaningful perspective than the large majority of other posters in this thread.  And, that "art are holier than thou" seems to be the overall tone that you are projecting in your above post.

JayJuanGee, I apologize for my post.  I certainly did not mean to project myself as being holier than anybody.  Buddha knows that my own inventory is pretty far from perfect. 

I was certainly offering a different perspective...and maybe busting balls a little too much.  But I would never intentionally hold myself out on an anonymous forum (or hopefully anywhere) as being better than anybody.

I'm sorry to JJG and to anybody who took offense.  If I ever offend you again, please just read the post in the voice of a slightly drunken pirate, staggering around a little bit and with no inhibitions due to the rum.

Thanks for the response... and NO problem...    I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s)..   

Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. 

From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history.  In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed.


I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins.   

Year 1 (2015)  = $655.50
Year 2 (2016)  = $753.83
Year 3 (2017)  = $866.90
Year 4 (2018)  = $996.93
Year 5 (2019)  = $1,146.47
Year 6 (2020)  = $1,318.44

Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate.   

As I posted above (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723219.msg8205979#msg8205979):  Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year.  I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021.

Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 =   withdrawal amount = $39,478  =  BTC withdrawal 26.04 =   BTC in portfolio = 328.27

Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 =   withdrawal amount = $41,057 =  BTC withdrawal 23.55 =   BTC in portfolio = 304.73

Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 =   withdrawal amount  = $42,699=  BTC withdrawal 21.29 =   BTC in portfolio = 283.43

Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 =   withdrawal amount = $44,407=  BTC withdrawal 19.26 =   BTC in portfolio = 264.18

Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86=   withdrawal amount = $46,184=  BTC withdrawal 17.42=   BTC in portfolio = 246.76

Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64=   withdrawal amount = $48,031=  BTC withdrawal 15.75 =   BTC in portfolio = 231.01

I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501.

However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%.

[Unbelive]

i would say till 2020, you would need 66.6666 BTC. But what you plan to do then with them? If you keep them well invested you need much less.

[fonsie]

Just a wild guess here, but to retire in 5-6 years you should have the following amount of BTC:

enough, so instead of asking these silly questions, you should go buy some, so that you will have enough.

[whysosweet]

I've just bought half bitcoin, I'll hold it long term but I don't think it will ever reach millions of $ in value...

[Torque]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional.  

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020.  

This sub forum's predictions have become a manic-depressive joke.  When bitcoin was flying high back in Nov 2013, everyone was convinced the price would hit 10K by the end of 2014.  All the TA, trendline charts, predictions, and polls were all screaming the same mantra.  Now that we've been in a bear market for some time, everyone has turned a complete 180 degree bear/pessimist, and now is pushing out their 10K prediction to at least 2020 or later, at least 6-10 years from now.  Fkn hilarious.

I'm sure when bitcoin starts flying high again, possibly end of this year or early 2015, everyone will be utterly convinced AGAIN that it'll hit 10K by mid or end of 2015.  And they'll all be saying "I told you so!" but it will be the SAME people here today making their pessimistic 2020+ predictions.    

[vuduchyld]

Thanks for the response... and NO problem...    I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s)..   

Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. 

From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history.  In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed.


I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins.   

Year 1 (2015)  = $655.50
Year 2 (2016)  = $753.83
Year 3 (2017)  = $866.90
Year 4 (2018)  = $996.93
Year 5 (2019)  = $1,146.47
Year 6 (2020)  = $1,318.44

Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate.   

As I posted above (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723219.msg8205979#msg8205979):  Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year.  I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021.

Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 =   withdrawal amount = $39,478  =  BTC withdrawal 26.04 =   BTC in portfolio = 328.27

Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 =   withdrawal amount = $41,057 =  BTC withdrawal 23.55 =   BTC in portfolio = 304.73

Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 =   withdrawal amount  = $42,699=  BTC withdrawal 21.29 =   BTC in portfolio = 283.43

Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 =   withdrawal amount = $44,407=  BTC withdrawal 19.26 =   BTC in portfolio = 264.18

Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86=   withdrawal amount = $46,184=  BTC withdrawal 17.42=   BTC in portfolio = 246.76

Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64=   withdrawal amount = $48,031=  BTC withdrawal 15.75 =   BTC in portfolio = 231.01

I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501.

However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%.

Now THAT is a well done analysis!  Nice work!

So if I had $201,780, I could go buy 354 BTC today.  If BTC were to rise 15% per year, then starting in 2020, I could take the prescribed withdrawals and, you're right, I could have a growing fiat amount in perpetuity...or at least, as long as BTC continued to rise 15% per year.

Very well done.

For what it's worth, I actually could buy 354 BTC right now (well, it might take me a week to move around some money).  And it is worth considering!  The only pesky problem is that the 15% would have to continue pretty much forever, or for at least 30+ years.  I'm 46.  If I stop working at 52 with $466K and change, I'd need that 15% to continue pretty predictably.  If BTC is inconsistent...what happens in 2022 if BTC isn't $1743 on the date I need to withdraw, but instead, it's $871?  Then I need to withdraw 200% more, which reduces my stash.  I could survive that once, but it's a risky proposition!  I'm also pretty much banking on a BTC rise to about $37,740 in the next 30 years.  I need it to be that when I'm 25 years into retirement AND I'm also banking on the fact that that will have enough purchasing power, either in BTC or fiat, to buy me a loaf of bread.  I've got a 2 year old (yeah, had my only kid at the age of 44) that I need to think about, as well.  

It's a solid analysis and it definitely meets the original criteria, though.  And it's actually, in theory, possible for me to do!  But I think I'll just be thankful that I actually like my job for now!

[Buo]

In 5-6 years the value of bitcoin could be 1 million or 1 dollar, in my opinion is totally unpredictable.

[JayJuanGee]

I just talked to a economics Phd and we analyzed some stats surrounding BTC. We made some good/worst case scenarios and took the average of those scenarios.

Our price prediction for 2020 = 10,750 USD

That seems on the slightly high side of reasonable to me.  My last number-crunching was for 2019.  I came in around $2340.  If I had shot for 2020-2022, I could have easily come up with $5000 to $10,000.  Just a couple of simple changes would put us pretty close, especially given the extra year in your calculation.

I could show my work, but maybe the easier thing to do would be to use this as a basis: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

My number is significantly different, because:
--He used each of the possible value centers as an additive element.  But he included a random, unsupported M2 calculation, which I think, accounts for all the other stuff.  It shouldn't have been additive.
--I believe the M2 calculations really hit the essence of BTC value.
--I'd say the author massively overstated BTC in the remittance market
--In my view, his velocity calculations on BTC were incorrect, likely because he used mining transactions in his velocity calculations..

I'm not sure why I am posting something semi-serious in this thread, though, because it has devolved into a ridiculous parody of bitcoiners.  If anybody REALLY thinks they can buy $14,500 worth of bitcoins today at $580 and retire on JUST that in 5-6 years (even with a paltry $30K annual income, which, by the way, is preposterous retirement "planning"), they are delusional.  

Yes, you can quote me.  Feel free to refer to this post in 2020.  

This sub forum's predictions have become a manic-depressive joke.  When bitcoin was flying high back in Nov 2013, everyone was convinced the price would hit 10K by the end of 2014.  All the TA, trendline charts, predictions, and polls were all screaming the same mantra.  Now that we've been in a bear market for some time, everyone has turned a complete 180 degree bear/pessimist, and now is pushing out their 10K prediction to at least 2020 or later, at least 6-10 years from now.  Fkn hilarious.

I'm sure when bitcoin starts flying high again, possibly end of this year or early 2015, everyone will be utterly convinced AGAIN that it'll hit 10K by mid or end of 2015.  And they'll all be saying "I told you so!" but it will be the SAME people here today making their pessimistic 2020+ predictions.    

If you are referring to any of my posts in this thread as being among the pessimistic ones, I am just "playing along" with fairly conservative posts to show the numbers for such conservative but steady BTC increases within the posts - even though I tend to be much more bullish regarding my thoughts about the potential for exponential BTC price appreciation. 

NONETHELESS, I remain of the belief that we cannot necessarily bank on the more bullish and exponential price scenario taking place - even though we can put ourselves in a position to profit considerably from a more bullish scenario were it to occur.

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks for the response... and NO problem...    I otherwise appreciate your post and your providing reasoning for your conclusion(s)..   

Definitely it is a good thing to hear differing perspectives. 

From time to time, I have described more conservative scenarios of modest 15% or less BTC appreciation per year; however, those kinds of scenarios seem way too bearish in light of the totality of BTC's fundamentals and history.  In this regard, I tend to believe that if BTC appreciates less than 15% per year, then there is likely going to be a turning away from BTC and a conclusion that BTC has failed.


I mean really, think about a 15% per year scenario over the next 6 years of savings (starting with today's $570 price), and then think of another 15% per year projection of appreciation of BTC value as you attempt to live off of your coins.   

Year 1 (2015)  = $655.50
Year 2 (2016)  = $753.83
Year 3 (2017)  = $866.90
Year 4 (2018)  = $996.93
Year 5 (2019)  = $1,146.47
Year 6 (2020)  = $1,318.44

Don't get me wrong, this 15% is NOT a bad rate of return (compared to other traditional investments); however, you would probably need around 354 BTC (valued at $467,141 in 2020 to maintain a $30k per year withdrawal rate in today's dollars - given a continued 15% per year BTC appreciation rate.   

As I posted above (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723219.msg8205979#msg8205979):  Continuing to assume a 4% per year inflation rate, a 15% per year BTC appreciation rate and a withdrawal rate of about 8% per year.  I think that you would mostly be able to maintain and build your BTC principle holdings (in dollar value), while beginning to withdraw BTC in 2021.

Withdrawal year 1 (2021) = BTC price $1,516.21 =   withdrawal amount = $39,478  =  BTC withdrawal 26.04 =   BTC in portfolio = 328.27

Withdrawal year 2 (2022) = BTC price $1,743.64 =   withdrawal amount = $41,057 =  BTC withdrawal 23.55 =   BTC in portfolio = 304.73

Withdrawal year 3 (2023) = BTC price $2,005.19 =   withdrawal amount  = $42,699=  BTC withdrawal 21.29 =   BTC in portfolio = 283.43

Withdrawal year 4 (2024) = BTC price $2,305.97 =   withdrawal amount = $44,407=  BTC withdrawal 19.26 =   BTC in portfolio = 264.18

Withdrawal year 5 (2025) = BTC price $2,651.86=   withdrawal amount = $46,184=  BTC withdrawal 17.42=   BTC in portfolio = 246.76

Withdrawal year 6 (2026) = BTC price $3,049.64=   withdrawal amount = $48,031=  BTC withdrawal 15.75 =   BTC in portfolio = 231.01

I think all of this is doable, reasonable and decent b/c in 2020, the dollar value of your portfolio would be $467,141, and in 2026, even after withdrawing for 6 years, the dollar value of your BTC portfolio would be $704,501.

However, I believe that BTC is much more bullish than a 15% per year appreciation rate, but it is possible to plan with such a conservative BTC appreciation rate and to merely take advantage of a greater BTC appreciation if one gets lucky to experience a few bubbles that are much greater than 15%.

Now THAT is a well done analysis!  Nice work!

So if I had $201,780, I could go buy 354 BTC today.  If BTC were to rise 15% per year, then starting in 2020, I could take the prescribed withdrawals and, you're right, I could have a growing fiat amount in perpetuity...or at least, as long as BTC continued to rise 15% per year.

Very well done.

For what it's worth, I actually could buy 354 BTC right now (well, it might take me a week to move around some money).  And it is worth considering!  The only pesky problem is that the 15% would have to continue pretty much forever, or for at least 30+ years.  I'm 46.  If I stop working at 52 with $466K and change, I'd need that 15% to continue pretty predictably.  If BTC is inconsistent...what happens in 2022 if BTC isn't $1743 on the date I need to withdraw, but instead, it's $871?  Then I need to withdraw 200% more, which reduces my stash.  I could survive that once, but it's a risky proposition!  I'm also pretty much banking on a BTC rise to about $37,740 in the next 30 years.  I need it to be that when I'm 25 years into retirement AND I'm also banking on the fact that that will have enough purchasing power, either in BTC or fiat, to buy me a loaf of bread.  I've got a 2 year old (yeah, had my only kid at the age of 44) that I need to think about, as well.  

It's a solid analysis and it definitely meets the original criteria, though.  And it's actually, in theory, possible for me to do!  But I think I'll just be thankful that I actually like my job for now!

I came to my above numbers by plugging the various assumptions into an Excel spreadsheet.  If you know about Excel spreadsheets, you could input these kinds of various assumptions into your own Excel spreadsheet and then play around with the variables (and the assumptions), including the timeline and including tweaking the year by year growth.. and maybe even convert into a quarter by quarter monitoring or month by month monitoring.

I would NOT necessarily suggest purchasing 354BTC at the moment, unless you feel that your other liquid investment assets are sufficiently diversified in order to tolerate such a weighting of your allocations towards BTC...

In other words, it is likely that you would NOT want to place all (or most) of your eggs into the one basket that has a number of assumptions that may NOT play out...

Yet, on the other hand, if BTC experiences exponential growth in any of the earlier years (or quarters) within the next 6 years, for example, you may be able to withdraw early a portion of your BTC holdings in order to diversify and to better protect against downside risk and maybe even reinvest at a later date (on the dips) a portions of your withdrawn fiat back into BTC.


By the way, from my own personal investment into BTC, I have a little different plan than the one that I outlined above.  I have a pretty good chunk of BTC (well over 100BTC); however, BTC occupies less than 10% of my total quasi-liquid financial holdings... but currently, I am investing a large quantity of new money into BTC.  I am anticipating some BTC bubbles in the future, which will cause me to reconsider the percentages allocation towards BTC.  Though currently, I am NOT really opposed to allowing my percentage allocation towards BTC to increase to a considerable quantity so long as the growth in the weighting of the investment towards BTC prices has been caused by the appreciation of BTC prices, rather than caused by my putting more fiat into it..... and so long as I consider the BTC fundamentals to remain strong in the present and into the future projection of what seems to be happening in the BTC space (such as adoption rate increasing and investment rate increasing and liquidation opportunities increasing).

In the end, with BTC, it seems like we likely need to tailor our plan to our own circumstances and risk tolerance and assumptions and then to continue to monitor our plan as the space presumably continues to grow and develop.