Cypherdoc, I enjoy your reports and value your service.
However, I notice you didn't give any bitcoin selling recommendation in the whole rally towards $266. Just like you didn't give any selling recommendation in the whole rally of 2011 towards $30.
And I am afraid, just like after the first drop in 2011 from $30 to $15, your advice to buy this dip will be proven wrong on a short term basis, the coming months.
I think it is fair to say you have been acting as a permabull up until now. And though permabulls offer high value to buy at true bottoms and stick with it in an upward cycle. A lot of that value is lost when they miss the top completely and go all-in into a downwards temporary cycle.
Or, I think your calls at the bottom of 2011, and into the start of this rally have been very good. Your calls towards the top in 2011 and 2013 and into the downwards cycle of 2011 have been very poor.
Ofcourse, I will revise my opinion if you prove to be right that we get new highs the coming weeks/months. But until then the empirical proof supports my thesis I believe.
I do feel irritated when permabulls do not acknowledge their wrong calls when missing another major top. Instead of acknowledging the failure, they double down, saying to buy the dip, only to be proven wrong about that too in the months ahead. After which they continue to advise the same, 'buy the dip'. At some point ofcourse they are right. But in the meantime they have been very wrong and have never acknowledged that. I hope you can raise above that and can take responsibility for wrong calls.
If not, all is well, you do offer high value acting as a permabull in bitcoin. And indeed, following your advise, although it is a strong rollercoaster, and great opportunities are missed at temporary tops, you certainly balance that out with giving great opportunities at real bottoms. I believe in the long run your strategy to basically always stick with it, as well as accumulate more, will create great wealth for the once following that advise consistently.
I think you will be able to help more people if you recognize your mistakes more. Because you lose credibility if you don't. Less experienced investors will, understandably, give up on your advise, as the amount of wrong calls add up into a downward cycle, and will not act on your best calls at the bottom. However, if you recognize the past mistakes you made into a downwards cycle, those less experienced investors, will have more sympathy for your continued calls to buy.
I think investors will get much higher value from you if they are conscious you are acting, up until now, as a permabull.
My advise to other investors would be to subscribe to Cyperdocs service but to either:
1. Follow his advise always.
or 2. Follow your own advise, using your own system. Even then Cyperdoc his bitcoin reports are very informative.
Do not do 3. Follow his advise after he made many right calls, and stop following his advise after he made several wrong ones as this will lead you to continue to buy towards the top, and leading you to stop buying as we go into true bottoms.
And NEVER do 4. Following his advise after he made many right calls, and giving up on him and doing the inverse after he made several wrong ones, as that is a recipe for disaster. This will lead you to buy high and sell low, ruining your capital.
its impossible to respond to criticisms like this as everyone has a different perspective and strategy. all i can do is lay down the facts. since this letter began on 3/31/12 my recommendations have performed to the tune of:
BTC: 4.87 --> 94.6 or
1843% gainGold: 1671 --> 1374 or 18% loss OR at minimum,
18% GAIN if you went short like i did, or even more if you sold bullion and then went short on top of that. actually my personal gain is even larger since i've used leverage like DZZ or ZSL and have been swing trading a bunch of miner shorts like GG, SLW, RGLD, AG. all this is well documented in the gold thread.
Stocks: this one is more difficult to calculate b/c i do swing/day trade these. i have been too early on calling a top in the Dow but not in individual retailer shorts that i've used to short the stock market many of which have had spectacular gains. overall, my estimate of this is a
15% gain since this letter started.
sorry i didn't say SELL at 260. to me, this drop doesn't change the big picture.
