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[fullhdpixel]

~snip~

The odds are semi-correct, obviously when you put "all players have equal chances" and remove certain players like defense or defensive midfielder you are both shooting yourself in the leg with the calculation of "all players have equal chances" but also you are removing players at the same time. Don't we know that VVD scores time to time, look at ramos in La Liga dude is one of the top scorers.

So, all I was saying is that strikers have a higher chance, so when you play on the player that scored once every 2 games on average, that should have a higher chance to hit than having a midfielder to score, doesn't mean it is always like that, a midfielder could have a hat trick while striker has zero in any game depending on luck, but I was talking about the luck and the statistics of how that could happen.

Sorry if you thought I was picking a fight, it seems my attempts at humour on this forum are often miscontrued as antagonist!

Never need to be sorry mate! Text is something quite hard to convey the sense of humor, I am sure you are normally funny and it was me who didn't get it via texts.

[tokeweed]

Hi FJ, some bookies started laying lines for Usman vs Masvidal for UFC 251.  Something you guys might wanna look into.  

https://www.bestfightodds.com

[arallmuus]

~snip~

The odds are semi-correct, obviously when you put "all players have equal chances" and remove certain players like defense or defensive midfielder you are both shooting yourself in the leg with the calculation of "all players have equal chances" but also you are removing players at the same time.

So, all I was saying is that strikers have a higher chance, so when you play on the player that scored once every 2 games on average, that should have a higher chance to hit than having a midfielder to score, doesn't mean it is always like that, a midfielder could have a hat trick while striker has zero in any game depending on luck, but I was talking about the luck and the statistics of how that could happen.

You should read my entire post before jumping on your own conclusion to what I wrote. This is the main point of my post of which you argued

Obviously the odds should be significantly lower because all player have equal chance to score except goalkeeper

If you would like to include all players including the goalkeepers then just go with 1/22^7 .

Also I did wrote this

That odds was calculated with assumption that every player has the same chance to score.

This post is actually about every 5 other player on each team that I didnt rule out.

Don't we know that VVD scores time to time, look at ramos in La Liga dude is one of the top scorers.

Im quite aware of what I wrote and this is majestic 7 for premier league not La Liga. Even if it is majestic 7 for La Liga , I would still choose Benzema over Ramos

depending on luck, but I was talking about the luck and the statistics of how that could happen.

Luck/being lucky is part of the variances in a gamble. Someone could win 1 in 100 chances game with only 1 time of playing while someone could win it after 5000 tries, thats variances.

[adamistraybar]

i was lucky i got 2 out of 7 lol. yea its all messed up because of coronovirus delay it was already hard enough before lol. But now you never know who might score

[masulum]

I want to ask if there is a session limit on the account that we open, because every time I log in, It only takes less than 5 minutes to logged out automatically. even though I'm active on the page or I'm not idle, my account still logs out. Anyone who has the same problem, please tell me how to fix it.

[Bitinity]

I want to ask if there is a session limit on the account that we open, because every time I log in, It only takes less than 5 minutes to logged out automatically. even though I'm active on the page or I'm not idle, my account still logs out. Anyone who has the same problem, please tell me how to fix it.

I've posted about this issue few times in the past and I think it is due to my dinamic IP. Once the IP changed because of unstable connection or something else then I'll be logged out even if I'm playing on Fortunejack. I have no ideas on how to fix this but in the past few months, I did not face this problem anymore.

[masulum]

I've posted about this issue few times in the past and I think it is due to my dinamic IP. Once the IP changed because of unstable connection or something else then I'll be logged out even if I'm playing on Fortunejack. I have no ideas on how to fix this but in the past few months, I did not face this problem anymore.

thank you, I think it's true that this happened because of a dynamic IP issue.  Because i see a warning message from cloudflare two times but I didn't pay attention to my ip at that time . maybe I will try again using VPN to make sure whether the account will still be logged out automatically or not.

[buwaytress]

Of course 0.001% doesnt sound too bad if you compare it with 0.00001% . Ever since the majestic 7 has started , I havent see anyone that brag he got 5/7 but perhaps someone actually got it (or perhaps in the past with reference to you post )

Um yeah, a few posts above yours is someone saying he got 5/7, and yeah there was a time many of us got 5/7. So it's obviously reachable! IIRC it was during a time they posted promos where you only needed to get 3/7 to get a small freebet, and they picked all the matches where the topscorers were playing.

That odds was calculated with assumption that every player has the same chance to score. Of course the chance for Vardy and Maddison from Leicester to score is obviously different.

Which is why I used bookie odds on any time goal scorer to count the odds of winning 7/7 with all the likeliest scorers. But this is football, and the likely scorers don't always score;)

For example, I correctly picked Southampton to beat City (it was 9/1 odds) but I'd never have picked Che Adams to score! Even if I don't pick Ings (the most obvious), I'd have gone for Shane Long or Prowse any day over Adams! Or last night Liverpool's 2-0 win. Surely Salah or Bobby over Curtis Jones, right?

Hope we see M7 return next season though. Best distraction of the lot for EPL Invincibles isn't bad too of course, problem is Liverpool got KO'd so I obviously follow with less enthusiasm haha.

[arallmuus]

That odds was calculated with assumption that every player has the same chance to score. Of course the chance for Vardy and Maddison from Leicester to score is obviously different.

Which is why I used bookie odds on any time goal scorer to count the odds of winning 7/7 with all the likeliest scorers. But this is football, and the likely scorers don't always score;)

To get near accurate result you should perhaps include atleast 3-4 top scorer odds from both club and count everything in accordance to that. That should give you near accurate odds . But It should definitely less than 0.0001 % chance to strike all 7 .

Anyway whatever the odds are, as long as it is free then it is not a problem. Cant really expect alot from free stuff but eventually someone will get it right 

For example, I correctly picked Southampton to beat City (it was 9/1 odds) but I'd never have picked Che Adams to score! Even if I don't pick Ings (the most obvious), I'd have gone for Shane Long or Prowse any day over Adams! Or last night Liverpool's 2-0 win. Surely Salah or Bobby over Curtis Jones, right>

I picked City to get a cleansheet and oh well they dissapoint me and made me lose my parlay  . I posted my betslip on the discussion thread though

[fullhdpixel]

Anyway, I don't think even 100 people are really playing. Judging from the ones who actively post here, about 10 or so actively play, maybe another 90 who don't post here but who have no idea how to pick so pick anyone. It's like those free Survivor games for NFL. OR free draft picks. I can't be arsed to learn the game so I either don't play them or I make random picks that I'm sure people who know the game would laugh at.

In any case, could we just agree that its quite difficult to get it right but since we do not know how many people play, we can't estimate how many times it should have been won?

I mean sure there are variance like you said, the people who got 1/100 thing on first try and on 5000th try both exists but at least we could say that if there are 100 people that tries a week has a lower chance than 100000 people trying per week. That is just statistics. And all of this started out with a discussion about how "wonder how many people play because one person at least should have won already even if its a low chance to hit if there are enough chances given to a lot of people" and that has absolutely no foul idea in there.

[buwaytress]

When my parlay today settles, I'll have earned my fourth 4+1 freebet at FJ. So far, putting all freebets on parlays of at least 7/1, so hitting 1 out of 3 so far is giving me great value back.

Tried just the one 7-leg parlay to see if it's worth the 100% insurance but not really my style at the end of the day, it seems.

FJ: Now that Bundesliga's wrapped up, will we be able to replace leagues? Maybe at least all of the European leagues or Big 4 countries but including all lower leagues? Or reduce the min requirements? It's going to get harder and harder to place qualifying bets as the games get fewer =) Just asking;)

@arallmuus and fullhdpixel:  Well, didn't intend to get into that kind of depth about Majestic Seven but hey, now FJ sees just how popular it is, maybe they'll keep it for next season! The Invincible format too, now I really want to see how that turns out =)

[JeromeTash]

@arallmuus and fullhdpixel:  Well, didn't intend to get into that kind of depth about Majestic Seven but hey, now FJ sees just how popular it is, maybe they'll keep it for next season! The Invincible format too, now I really want to see how that turns out =)

I did win some free bets with Majestic 7 and was close to winning many more on several occasions but that 1 BTC looks impossible for me 
The Invincibles game looks awesome. Of course, it's impossible to win the grand price but one can easily stack up from awesome free bets throughout the tournament. Can't wait for the Champion's League resume soon 

[arallmuus]

-snipped-

I mean sure there are variance like you said, the people who got 1/100 thing on first try and on 5000th try both exists

Actually It was me that wrote that not buwaytrees  

Someone could win 1 in 100 chances game with only 1 time of playing while someone could win it after 5000 tries, thats variances.

@arallmuus and fullhdpixel:  Well, didn't intend to get into that kind of depth about Majestic Seven but hey, now FJ sees just how popular it is, maybe they'll keep it for next season! The Invincible format too, now I really want to see how that turns out =)

Perhaps they will and it will be great if they do. If they do, perhaps someone might be able to hit it on next season

I did win some free bets with Majestic 7 and was close to winning many more on several occasions but that 1 BTC looks impossible for me  

Have you ever hit 6/7 ? As I have wrote before, someone will have significantly higher chance to hit 7/7 if they keep on choosing the top scorer of the respective matches but due to the league being postponed for 3 months, some top scorer might not be on their top performances  . That kinda add alot of variances to the game which makes it harder for someone to hit 7/7

Thats my 2 cent and lets take a look at this

Abraham , Chelsea's top scorer scored

Vardy and Aubameyang, both are top scorer from their respective club and both scored tonight

Might be coincidence and it might not works like that the next time, perhaps all top scorer might not score 

[adamistraybar]

i won 5-7 a few times and 6-7 once but 7-7 impossible.

No one will win before season is up. i am 2-3 tis week already proably free bet but will never will 1 btc its wy fortune jack is offerin 1 btc its because its near impossible

[fullhdpixel]

^Yeah sorry about the mix up, I think the top scorer method will work eventually. Next season if they bring it back, I am going to keep going with that, first I will pick the top scorers of each favorited team to score from this year's top scorer list (when the season starts new it is hard to pick the top scorer since they have like 2 goals at most) but eventually move to current (next) seasons scorers and just go with that.

I know in my heart that if I go with "pick the favorite team with odds, and pick the top scorer of that team for each game" eventually I might hit 7/7, it looks and sounds like a sound logical system, can't say I can guarantee it but since it is free to join I can say that everyone should try that time to time. At the very least we might win some free spins .

[arallmuus]

^Yeah sorry about the mix up

No problem 

I know in my heart that if I go with "pick the favorite team with odds, and pick the top scorer of that team for each game" eventually I might hit 7/7, it looks and sounds like a sound logical system, can't say I can guarantee it but since it is free to join I can say that everyone should try that time to time. At the very least we might win some free spins .

Sounds like a plan and the most logical thing to do but it totally depends. For example in the upcoming match for Chelsea against Norwich, the most logical thing to do is to select one top scorer from Chelsea because Chelsea has better chance to score. This of course on the condition that the top scorer player will be playing or doesnt suffer from any injury

However in the upcoming match between Norwich and West ham, it will be hard to choose any scorer from both team but yeah you still kinda need some luck to hit 7/7

[FortuneJack]

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[adamistraybar]

tis is week for 7 out oft 7 someone will do it i tink lets see

[BitSat19]

tis is week for 7 out oft 7 someone will do it i tink lets see

May be someone have luck and achieve this land mark until now we have many 6 out 7 and 5 out 7 but this is just dream now just Four more rounds and something big need to happen.

[fullhdpixel]

I know in my heart that if I go with "pick the favorite team with odds, and pick the top scorer of that team for each game" eventually I might hit 7/7, it looks and sounds like a sound logical system, can't say I can guarantee it but since it is free to join I can say that everyone should try that time to time. At the very least we might win some free spins .

Sounds like a plan and the most logical thing to do but it totally depends. For example in the upcoming match for Chelsea against Norwich, the most logical thing to do is to select one top scorer from Chelsea because Chelsea has better chance to score. This of course on the condition that the top scorer player will be playing or doesnt suffer from any injury

However in the upcoming match between Norwich and West ham, it will be hard to choose any scorer from both team but yeah you still kinda need some luck to hit 7/7

It is not about picking which team based on which one is stronger, it is picking the favorite team, just to give an example Liverpool is the champion team at a record pace and by far higher than anyone even the second, yet on the city game they were given lower odds, so you pick city in that case.

You take a look at west ham and Norwich game, go to fortunejack, see which one has better odds, if one of them is favorited by the provider, that means you pick that team, than you go to top goal scorers of that team on transfermarkt (or any other place you want) and you pick the top scorer, then you go to rosters and league injury report places and check to see if he can play that game, if all of this checks out you get to wager on that player. Doing this for 7 games takes about 15-20 minutes total at most and I feel like it has the biggest chance.