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[BitSat19]

My picks @Trofo and @BitcoinGirl.Club if we have no bad luck then surely we are going to win prize this week because I just check we have five same picks and just 2 are not matching so hopefully we will able to have prize and end of this season because now its very long time I am living here without any free bet from gambling sites.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Really don't like your Abraham pick, I think he will probably play just about 20 minutes. Willian, Pulisic & Giraud would be my picks before him. Now that I have written that Willian will probably not play and Abraham will score in minute 1

Here are my picks:


Don't like Antonio pick much, he scored 4 last time around and now I am quite sure he will not score but I wanted someone from West Ham and nobody else is looking good for me. Maybe Welbeck, Deeney or Sarr would be a better option here but he delivered last time for me so let's try once again.

The whole thing is totally gamble so I am very happy with my picks and hope for the best. Imagine few matches end with no goal LOL

My picks @Trofo and @BitcoinGirl.Club if we have no bad luck then surely we are going to win prize this week because I just check we have five same picks and just 2 are not matching so hopefully we will able to have prize and end of this season because now its very long time I am living here without any free bet from gambling sites.

This will be great and even better if any one of us wins the 1 BTC prize. Will we?

[BitSat19]

Really don't like your Abraham pick, I think he will probably play just about 20 minutes. Willian, Pulisic & Giraud would be my picks before him. Now that I have written that Willian will probably not play and Abraham will score in minute 1

Here are my picks:


Don't like Antonio pick much, he scored 4 last time around and now I am quite sure he will not score but I wanted someone from West Ham and nobody else is looking good for me. Maybe Welbeck, Deeney or Sarr would be a better option here but he delivered last time for me so let's try once again.

The whole thing is totally gamble so I am very happy with my picks and hope for the best. Imagine few matches end with no goal LOL

My picks @Trofo and @BitcoinGirl.Club if we have no bad luck then surely we are going to win prize this week because I just check we have five same picks and just 2 are not matching so hopefully we will able to have prize and end of this season because now its very long time I am living here without any free bet from gambling sites.

This will be great and even better if any one of us wins the 1 BTC prize. Will we?

Why not but its need some luck and my lady of luck is far away from me so hopefully someone else win and we will celebrate here on this thread

[arallmuus]

The whole thing is totally gamble so I am very happy with my picks and hope for the best. Imagine few matches end with no goal LOL

A gamble with no risk at all  , thats the best part of it. Some other site needs you to wager atleast X amount to participate in their event but for Majestic 7 , you can play it for free

This will be great and even better if any one of us wins the 1 BTC prize. Will we?

Sooner or later someone is definitely going to win 7/7 but as I have mentioned on this thread before, the probability to actually hit 7/7 would less than 0.00001 % ( Not accurate but it should be close to the real number ). Silly chances isnt it but with nothing to lose at all, I dont see why people should be skipping this knowing that everyone stands a chance to win 

Assuming that every player has equal chance to score and if you have to pick 1 player from 1 match

Lets say we ruled out few players from each team so 1 goalkeeper and 4 defenders and 1 defensive midfielder will be ruled out because they have lower chance to score

so that left us with 1/10 chance

and also you have to win 7 times in a row so the odds will be 1/10^7 = 0.00001 % chance  

Obviously the odds should be significantly lower because all player have equal chance to score except goalkeeper

[Trofo]

This will be great and even better if any one of us wins the 1 BTC prize. Will we?

Sooner or later someone is definitely going to win 7/7 but as I have mentioned on this thread before, the probability to actually hit 7/7 would less than 0.00001 % ( Not accurate but it should be close to the real number ). Silly chances isnt it but with nothing to lose at all, I dont see why people should be skipping this knowing that everyone stands a chance to win  

Assuming that every player has equal chance to score and if you have to pick 1 player from 1 match

Lets say we ruled out few players from each team so 1 goalkeeper and 4 defenders and 1 defensive midfielder will be ruled out because they have lower chance to score

so that left us with 1/10 chance

and also you have to win 7 times in a row so the odds will be 1/10^7 = 0.00001 % chance  

Obviously the odds should be significantly lower because all player have equal chance to score except goalkeeper

I don't like your math very much. You are making a lot of assumptions which aren't too close to the real thing. If we want to get actual numbers we should take into account only best scorers for the club, your assumption that every player has equal chance to score goal is fundamentally wrong. For example chance for Salah to score a goal is much higher than chance for Keita to score a goal. Then we would have to take into account the expected number of goals each team could score and much more. Most of us will chose the best goalscorers from the stronger club.

But we don't have to do all that since bookies are already doing all the work for us. You have odds for most of the players to score goal. We can just use those odds and calculate our probability to win 1 BTC for each combination with much higher level of accuracy. I will make here a theoretical example when using decimal odds since I am not feeling like searching for odds for all the guys I chose. I prefer not knowing

Let's say I have chosen 3 "sure" goal scorers with odds of 1.85 that is same as 1/1.85 which gives me a probability of 54% for outcome in my favor.
Let's say I have chosen 4 "less sure" goal scorers with odds of 3.0 which gives me a probability of 33.3% of outcome in my favor.

So my chances of winning 1BTC are as follows:
1/1.85*1/1.85*1/1.85*1/3*1/3*1/3*1/3 which gives roughly 0,00187. That is 0.187% or if you want to put in laymen's terms you will get it correctly 1.8 times in 1000 tries and you have only 38 tries per season. Much better odds than what you came up with but still quite long odds and have in mind these are not connected events and they don't depend on each other. Think roulette, after ball ends up on red 20 times in a row there is still equal chance that 21st ball will end on red or black regardless of what that Martingale user hopes for

Now that I have written this, it actually looks too good to be true and I am bit concerned that those 5 beers I just drank have some influence on my statistical and math knowledge. Please point glaring mistakes if any.

[Indymoney]

Really don't like your Abraham pick, I think he will probably play just about 20 minutes. Willian, Pulisic & Giraud would be my picks before him. Now that I have written that Willian will probably not play and Abraham will score in minute 1

Here are my picks:


Don't like Antonio pick much, he scored 4 last time around and now I am quite sure he will not score but I wanted someone from West Ham and nobody else is looking good for me. Maybe Welbeck, Deeney or Sarr would be a better option here but he delivered last time for me so let's try once again.

The whole thing is totally gamble so I am very happy with my picks and hope for the best. Imagine few matches end with no goal LOL

My picks @Trofo and @BitcoinGirl.Club if we have no bad luck then surely we are going to win prize this week because I just check we have five same picks and just 2 are not matching so hopefully we will able to have prize and end of this season because now its very long time I am living here without any free bet from gambling sites.

This will be great and even better if any one of us wins the 1 BTC prize. Will we?

Sadly first match is nightmare for 1 Bitcoin dream as most of members out just 1 goal and its by Ground no Pulsic and Willian so now we have just 2 more chances for this big dream.

[arallmuus]

-snipped-

I don't like your math very much. You are making a lot of assumptions which aren't too close to the real thing. If we want to get actual numbers we should take into account only best scorers for the club, your assumption that every player has equal chance to score goal is fundamentally wrong. For example chance for Salah to score a goal is much higher than chance for Keita to score a goal. Then we would have to take into account the expected number of goals each team could score and much more. Most of us will chose the best goalscorers from the stronger club.

I wrote that in another post of mine in this thread as well. Of course the probability of some top scorer scoring the goal would be significantly higher than all the others. ( scroll few pages back to check on the discussion for the odds of 7/7 to happen )

Now that I have written this, it actually looks too good to be true and I am bit concerned that those 5 beers I just drank have some influence on my statistical and math knowledge. Please point glaring mistakes if any.

That definitely has some effect on you  . Its easy to choose which team would "probably" score if a dominating team be playing against lower table team but its hard to predict which player will score in the game. If we use the previous game of Chelsea vs Norwich as example, Most people will definitely choose Chelsea instead of Norwich but the point is which player would score for the game.

Alot of people would go for either Abraham or Willian ( Or even Pulisic ) because they are both top one and two goalscorer for Chelsea but here's the catch. Abraham was on the bench today until 86th minutes and Giroud the only goalscorer is currently the fifth goalscorer in terms of number of goal for Chelsea.

Different point of view but I get what you mean , there isnt any good way to know the actual odds . As long as it is free, it doesnt matter if it is less than 0.00001 % and lots of people gets to try again and again  

[GreatArkansas]

I want to ask about finding a bug in the new website of Fortunejack? Since recently, the campaign under Services is already ended.
What if I can found some bugs, does FortuneJack still give rewards for some bugs? Like some major bugs or based on how dangerous the bug is?

[TheUltraElite]

I want to ask about finding a bug in the new website of Fortunejack? Since recently, the campaign under Services is already ended.
What if I can found some bugs, does FortuneJack still give rewards for some bugs? Like some major bugs or based on how dangerous the bug is?

If it is a major bug then you should report it to the representative account personally. It is important that you do not attempt to exploit it and be the white knight in order to save a legitimate company from losing some money possibly.

I am sure if it is a major bug then they will and should compensate you, even if there is no ongoing bug bounty. The campaign was the promote awareness about their new site design and possible minor bugs in it. But major bugs as we know are only caught be debugging experts and not everyone's cup of tea.

[Betwrong]

~
Different point of view but I get what you mean , there isnt any good way to know the actual odds . As long as it is free, it doesnt matter if it is less than 0.00001 % and lots of people gets to try again and again  

And I'm one of them. I have tried many times already, and the best I could come up with were 3 right picks, just once.

The thing is that in reality it's never 54% or even 33.3% for someone to score, it is much lower than that, always. Those odds we can see on various betting sites do not represent real odds. Rather they("odds") reflect how many bettors, or what part of bettors, put their hopes on this or that player. (Actually, it's about how much money is placed on this or that player). So, if 60% of the pool's money is placed on, say, Tammy Abraham, no way it means he has those chances to score.

[leea-1334]

I knew I should have picked Giroud but I went for Pulisic instead because of his recent form. All of the chances came to Giroud though in the end and he missed everything except the one that mattered:)

The third round is going to be much better for winning the prize I bet until the second round I earned some bitcoin but the rounds are going to get better due to the higher amount of bonus. The higher the price the more bitcoin you can get.

Seriously, we all need to report meaningless spam like this so we can all help to clean up the forum;) These guys do not read a single thing,,, they probably even never bet on a single game their whole life and are just posting to get their post count up (what a waste of time!).

[arallmuus]

~
Different point of view but I get what you mean , there isnt any good way to know the actual odds . As long as it is free, it doesnt matter if it is less than 0.00001 % and lots of people gets to try again and again  

And I'm one of them. I have tried many times already, and the best I could come up with were 3 right picks, just once.

Got 3 at most for me ever since the Majestic 7 started again. Im just so bad at this 

The thing is that in reality it's never 54% or even 33.3% for someone to score, it is much lower than that, always. Those odds we can see on various betting sites do not represent real odds. Rather they("odds") reflect how many bettors, or what part of bettors, put their hopes on this or that player. (Actually, it's about how much money is placed on this or that player). So, if 60% of the pool's money is placed on, say, Tammy Abraham, no way it means he has those chances to score.

Now that you mention this, I kinda realized that the odds in betting site will significantly decrease sometimes if there are alot of people that choose to wager on that bet. There isnt any way to calculate the exact odds or anything close to the exact odds However if FJ offer 1 btc to hit 7/7 for free to anyone without any string attached, If anything it would be less than 0.00001 % 

I knew I should have picked Giroud but I went for Pulisic instead because of his recent form. All of the chances came to Giroud though in the end and he missed everything except the one that mattered:)

I picked Willian instead knowing full well that Abraham would probably not be playing for full time but Giroud scored instead 

Seriously, we all need to report meaningless spam like this

OOT but for the moment, put him on the ignore list so we wont read anything meaningless like that in the future again 

[buwaytress]

It looks like as soon as the new match of the week plays, the next week is available to select for MajSev.

So for this new week, I've picked very, very predictable choices except for the Newcastle match where I'm going for Sean Longstaff. Also, Antonio is very tasty as he's on form, but I wonder if a penalty for Mark Noble is due soon?

@Trofo yeah I also used odds from bookies to calculate odds for winning M7 and you and I arrived at closer percentage points than arallmuus haha.

[tokeweed]

Just wondering since the Majestic 7 has become so popular around the gambling section...  Would you guys also play a UFC promo if FJ made it?

[Trofo]

Just wondering since the Majestic 7 has become so popular around the gambling section...  Would you guys also play a UFC promo if FJ made it?

Probably if it is free, since I already have the account I would try to copy some info from you guys. No reason to not give it a try. However, I would not place any bet on UFC or related promo since I know absolutely nothing about the sport or have any interest in watching it.

On the other hand, if they made Majestic 7 like paying promo instead of free one I would still play it. Especially if we were able to chose the 7 games instead of them.

[arallmuus]

Just wondering since the Majestic 7 has become so popular around the gambling section...  Would you guys also play a UFC promo if FJ made it?

As long as it is free, people will still go for it. Although this is just a random thought of yours but it is not really feasible idea in FJ Point of view to provide Majestic 7 of UFC

The reason for that would be, there will always be one winner out of two fighters . Well it could end in  a draw as well but it is a very rare occurence

So assuming that there will always be one winner, that would be 50% chance to pick each one so, 0.5^7 would be 0.0078125 ~ 0.78% chance to hit 7/7   Perhaps M15 would be much more appropriate for a UFC fight hence the chance would be somewhere around 0.003 %


Im quite happy with the current M7 for the premier league plus this is one of the most anticipated football league but anything other than football will probably not attract more people .

[fullhdpixel]

^ Yeah, I have tried so many times as well, it is a free thing that gives out 1 bitcoin in the end, there is no way that anyone could complain about it the way it is. There was a moment during the first half ending and second half of the season starting where there were some transfers and the rosters weren't updated and that is the only legitimate feedback that I have seen that should have been done, but that was done like in a week after that so it wasn't a big deal for a long time neither.

This is by far the best promotion in any of the sportsbooks I have seen. Have you seen anywhere else a competition that is giving out 1 bitcoin in return of zero? Everywhere else you get stuff that requires you to spend some money to join, but here it is free and you can do it every single week.

[tokeweed]

Just wondering since the Majestic 7 has become so popular around the gambling section...  Would you guys also play a UFC promo if FJ made it?

As long as it is free, people will still go for it. Although this is just a random thought of yours but it is not really feasible idea in FJ Point of view to provide Majestic 7 of UFC

The reason for that would be, there will always be one winner out of two fighters . Well it could end in  a draw as well but it is a very rare occurence

So assuming that there will always be one winner, that would be 50% chance to pick each one so, 0.5^7 would be 0.0078125 ~ 0.78% chance to hit 7/7   Perhaps M15 would be much more appropriate for a UFC fight hence the chance would be somewhere around 0.003 %


Im quite happy with the current M7 for the premier league plus this is one of the most anticipated football league but anything other than football will probably not attract more people .

What I had in mind wouldn't be as simple as like picking a winner tho.  Maybe something like picking a winner and which round across all matches of the event.

[Betwrong]

~

The thing is that in reality it's never 54% or even 33.3% for someone to score, it is much lower than that, always. Those odds we can see on various betting sites do not represent real odds. Rather they("odds") reflect how many bettors, or what part of bettors, put their hopes on this or that player. (Actually, it's about how much money is placed on this or that player). So, if 60% of the pool's money is placed on, say, Tammy Abraham, no way it means he has those chances to score.

Now that you mention this, I kinda realized that the odds in betting site will significantly decrease sometimes if there are alot of people that choose to wager on that bet. There isnt any way to calculate the exact odds or anything close to the exact odds However if FJ offer 1 btc to hit 7/7 for free to anyone without any string attached, If anything it would be less than 0.00001 % 
~

I'm wondering if there are no strings attached indeed? Shouldn't we wager 30x or even 40x of that prize first before we can withdraw?

Regarding the odds, I think you are about right with your 0.00001 % estimation.

[buwaytress]

Probably if it is free, since I already have the account I would try to copy some info from you guys. No reason to not give it a try. However, I would not place any bet on UFC or related promo since I know absolutely nothing about the sport or have any interest in watching it.

On the other hand, if they made Majestic 7 like paying promo instead of free one I would still play it. Especially if we were able to chose the 7 games instead of them.

Same here. I don't bet on things I don't know about, at least, I know I did bet on some esports games, but even so, it was on football teams I at least thought I knew about haha.

I'd play Majestic Seven even with money, for sure. As long as it's like Multi Master in SB (about $1 a try for something virtually impossible to win!).