Bitcoin craze dying down?

[franky1]

blah blah
summarised tax year yend september

Its what i like to call the Dell Dump. What is the Dell Dump? The Dell Dump is is the name I gave the situation where all companies involved in accepting bitcoin dump their coins for fiat.

you have no clue.

you realise that on the main exchanges its not taking 13million coins(total circulation), its not taking 800k coins(rough hoard mtgox stole), its not taking 3600 coins (a days mining reward), it is only taking less then 500 coins to control the market price.

check out btc-e which most panicking sheeple use.. there is alot of dust and only walls of maybe 200coins causing a wall to stop the price rise.

now then lets move onto Dell and miners selling off:
most of these trades are NOT even done on exchanges. for instance 'overstock' hoards EVERY bitcoin. also dell does not do millions of dollars a day in bitcoin transactions, they do not do hundreds of thousands a day. its only a few coins a day.

so with that please understand that the exchange rates on the markets are only a true measure of a couple hundred coins, maximum of 500 coins at any one point.. NOT 13million coins.

you will see that more is being bought and sold via localbitcoins privately from hoards that dont touch exchanges. and also bitpay using private investment amounts which again are not ever touching an exchange. and non of these coins are taken into consideration when doing TRUE bitcoin valuations

the amount of average joe buyers do not want to put their bank account details on exchanges as their bank accounts get slammed and shutdown by their banks decision makers. exchanges like bitstamp/coinbase/btc-e DO NOT have customers doing large buys of $10k (22btc) simply because of all of these bank flags, and AML rules.

but once september is over and the truly smart people have sorted out their tax year and begin buying back in when october arrives, the bitcoin sellers that are selling privately will run out of coins to sell and they will grab a crap load from exchanges to continue to feed the private traders that do not want to touch exchanges personally/directly.

quick explanation of tax:
october 2013: imagine someone invested $2k(btc=$100 = 20btc)
september 2014: imagine bitcoin was their only income (20btc =$9000 this month) so buy cashing out every bitcoin they would be on the 0%-10% ta bracket (dependant on countries tax law) because their income is below poverty line and they have only made $7k profit(true income).
october 2014: imagine they put that $9k back in (making them initially minus $9k taxable) so even if bitcoin went upto $800 a coin their 20btc would be $16k, or put simply $7k profit. meaning they would be only taxed on $7k in 2015 (which in alot of countries is 0% due to income/profit being under $10k).

so alot of smart people cash out before the year end to maximum the next financial year end. this is due to the fact that if in october 2013 they put in that $2k and left it as bitcoin in 2014 and then cashed out in 2015, that $2k would become $16k meaning $14k profit in 2015 which means they WOULD pay tax..

so again smart people cash out at the end of the tax year and then buy in to maximise the 0% tax thresholds.

as for miners:
if they were really smart, instead of turning off mining completely they would be moving to altcoins simply to mine for a small profit to then swap for BTC meaning buying bitcoin.. which will eat up the sell wall

so just you wait.. you have not seen anything yet and you seem to be the kind of person that bases your investments on emotion rather than proper information, facts and statistics.

please add more statistics and facts, and research, do not rely on opinion and emotion. bitcoin is not dead, it is just preparing for the next leap.

use this oppertunity in sepember to buy in whil its cheap. or just like the cry babies of last year that missed out on september 2013's $70 bitcoin.. alot of you will be crying at christmas when you look back and say you wish you bought in at $450.

and if you are going to rebuttle that last christmas was a hype. you are correct. based on mining costs and true market valuation christmas last year should have been at$250-$350, not $1200.... this year i can see christmas not being $10k a coin, not being $5k a coin. but very very near $1k a coin based on statistics, not hype

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[cyberpinoy]

use this oppertunity in sepember to buy in whil its cheap. or just like the cry babies of last year that missed out on september 2013's $70 bitcoin.. alot of you will be crying at christmas when you look back and say you wish you bought in at $450.

I do have a clue, I was a profitable forex trader long before I got into crypto. Not to toot my own horn but If I was able to beat the big banks at their manipulation and collusion games I think I know a train to ride when i see one.

You want to blindly act as if every single person in bitcoins follows your exact fundamental research, and that is why sooooo many people fail drastically in Forex. because fundamentals are just a guide not a full proof plan. when trading a currency seeing wehat it did this time last year is only a small percentage of the deciding factor of what its going to do tomorrow, you muist look atb its history as you have provided, then look at many other variables, who needs it and for what reason they need it, who all will be buying it and why. who may be selling it and why will they be selling it off. For BTC you have a lot more sellers this year thahn you did last year.the more companies we bring on to accept bitcoins who have fiat based businesses the more sellers we have attracted. (define Fiat based business- any business who must supply their business wit the use of cash, pay labor with the use of cash,) NO ONE can say exactly what is going to happen to any currency this year based on what happened last year or the year before. there are just to many variables ESPECIALLY in bitcoins. Bitcoin has no true demand and its values is strictly based upon the buying and selling on the tradable market. you said 500 BTC is the controlling factor in its movement, I can guarantee the companies accepting bitcons added with the miners cashing out well surpasses your 500 BTC every 2 weeks. and sellers are dominating.

As the price drops the holders that did get in at 70 bucks last year panic and sell off as well.

ALtho i call it the DELL DUMP you clearly did not read the definition very well, altho Dell is the name I used it represents all the companies accepting bitcoins dumping them every two weeks, and so far as you watch my false claims i know nothing about they still seem to be quite true. we are now dwindling between 446 and 450 a coin huh, in two weeks it ill be under 430.

People trading and exchanging and selling/buying off the exchanges doesnt help or hurt the value of bitcoin so for this discussion it is quite irrelevant. If people cared about BTC and really wanted it to grow you would do their best to sell person to person and buy online thru an exchange.

I am one of those smart miners as you call them have been doing it that way for a long long time actually because as far as profitability it is better to solo mine a crap coin exchange it for BTC however you left one very important step out of your process as I also DUMP the BTC I get for cash. so altho i am buying BTC with the crapcoins which only effects the value of BTC against the coin i have just sold I am also selling it against the USD value of bitcoin. selling my crapcoin for BTC has no effect on the BTC/USD value it will only effect the BTC/CRAP value. so I as a cash perspective miner only hurt the value of bitcoins and unfortunately I am not alone.

Keep in mind, we dont mine for BTC. I cant pay my electric with BTC or my car payment or my internet I must pay those with cash. My house payment my childrens school supplies and clothes, everything I need to survive and allow my mine to function is paid for in cash not BTC so I have no choice.

Unfortunately the tax respective onlookers will not be the market movers anymore, the variables now have drastically increased and the financial value of bitcoin to a true investor has hit a rock hard medium, now investors have to wonder at 300 to 400 a coin is it worth it to reinvest, and as a former forex investor I can tell you they will hold their cash and wait.

Gold has been a trusted fallback for currency traders for decades, and even now high dollar investors are scared and shy from investing in gold. Gold used to hold the same interests as your fundamentals on BTC did, because it was easily purchased and hard to trace, it was an easy way for people to spend cash without "SPENDING" cash. Gold is also something that holds true value and has a real demand, what makes you think BTC is impervious to the effects Gold has been hit with?

[Kprawn]

blah blah
summarised tax year yend september

Its what i like to call the Dell Dump. What is the Dell Dump? The Dell Dump is is the name I gave the situation where all companies involved in accepting bitcoin dump their coins for fiat.

you have no clue.

you realise that on the main exchanges its not taking 13million coins(total circulation), its not taking 800k coins(rough hoard mtgox stole), its not taking 3600 coins (a days mining reward), it is only taking less then 500 coins to control the market price.

check out btc-e which most panicking sheeple use.. there is alot of dust and only walls of maybe 200coins causing a wall to stop the price rise.

now then lets move onto Dell and miners selling off:
most of these trades are NOT even done on exchanges. for instance 'overstock' hoards EVERY bitcoin. also dell does not do millions of dollars a day in bitcoin transactions, they do not do hundreds of thousands a day. its only a few coins a day.

so with that please understand that the exchange rates on the markets are only a true measure of a couple hundred coins, maximum of 500 coins at any one point.. NOT 13million coins.

you will see that more is being bought and sold via localbitcoins privately from hoards that dont touch exchanges. and also bitpay using private investment amounts which again are not ever touching an exchange. and non of these coins are taken into consideration when doing TRUE bitcoin valuations

the amount of average joe buyers do not want to put their bank account details on exchanges as their bank accounts get slammed and shutdown by their banks decision makers. exchanges like bitstamp/coinbase/btc-e DO NOT have customers doing large buys of $10k (22btc) simply because of all of these bank flags, and AML rules.

but once september is over and the truly smart people have sorted out their tax year and begin buying back in when october arrives, the bitcoin sellers that are selling privately will run out of coins to sell and they will grab a crap load from exchanges to continue to feed the private traders that do not want to touch exchanges personally/directly.

quick explanation of tax:
october 2013: imagine someone invested $2k(btc=$100 = 20btc)
september 2014: imagine bitcoin was their only income (20btc =$9000 this month) so buy cashing out every bitcoin they would be on the 0%-10% ta bracket (dependant on countries tax law) because their income is below poverty line and they have only made $7k profit(true income).
october 2014: imagine they put that $9k back in (making them initially minus $9k taxable) so even if bitcoin went upto $800 a coin their 20btc would be $16k, or put simply $7k profit. meaning they would be only taxed on $7k in 2015 (which in alot of countries is 0% due to income/profit being under $10k).

so alot of smart people cash out before the year end to maximum the next financial year end. this is due to the fact that if in october 2013 they put in that $2k and left it as bitcoin in 2014 and then cashed out in 2015, that $2k would become $16k meaning $14k profit in 2015 which means they WOULD pay tax..

so again smart people cash out at the end of the tax year and then buy in to maximise the 0% tax thresholds.

as for miners:
if they were really smart, instead of turning off mining completely they would be moving to altcoins simply to mine for a small profit to then swap for BTC meaning buying bitcoin.. which will eat up the sell wall

so just you wait.. you have not seen anything yet and you seem to be the kind of person that bases your investments on emotion rather than proper information, facts and statistics.

please add more statistics and facts, and research, do not rely on opinion and emotion. bitcoin is not dead, it is just preparing for the next leap.

use this oppertunity in sepember to buy in whil its cheap. or just like the cry babies of last year that missed out on september 2013's $70 bitcoin.. alot of you will be crying at christmas when you look back and say you wish you bought in at $450.

and if you are going to rebuttle that last christmas was a hype. you are correct. based on mining costs and true market valuation christmas last year should have been at$250-$350, not $1200.... this year i can see christmas not being $10k a coin, not being $5k a coin. but very very near $1k a coin based on statistics, not hype

I have never even considered this and it makes perfect sense, now that you explain it, in this way.

Let's hope, this does happen, and we see a record high BTC price in December.

[arbitrage001]

Is it just me or does it seem like the bitcoin "craze" has died down a lot? Not as much people active in talking about it, and especially in other forums for altcoins, there used to be a lot of buzz and excitement but not any more it seems

The crashed from peaked has burned a lot of people out. All my family members and friends have pretty negative view on bitcoin.

[OrientA]

Is it just me or does it seem like the bitcoin "craze" has died down a lot? Not as much people active in talking about it, and especially in other forums for altcoins, there used to be a lot of buzz and excitement but not any more it seems

The crashed from peaked has burned a lot of people out. All my family members and friends have pretty negative view on bitcoin.

I am glad you are still around/posting.

[messibtc]

We are under $439, it's depressing... I am one of the burned investors.

[OrientA]

We are under $439, it's depressing... I am one of the burned investors.

So am I.

[ChuckBuck]

Depends, if you started investing in Bitcoin of December of 2013. 

If you did, then there's nothing you can do about the price. 

Selling for a loss doesn't make a sense.  Selling also lowers the price further.

Only thing you can do is wait it out, or do what I'm about to do....BUY SOME MORE!   

[Minerjoe]

Well burned investors are only idiots who get caught into this whales game. As soon as the price takes a dip, panic kicks in and idiots start selling just to cry later how they lost their money.

It is very easy not to get burned, DO NOT SELL!!! Revolutionary technology like this one will survive. When everybody figure that out, the price ll go back up. How many times so far have we seen these period of decline and how many times people got burned. At least 10x in the last 2 years. People ll just never learn.

[franky1]

I do have a clue, I was a profitable forex trader long before I got into crypto.

blah blah waffle waffle

what you need to realise is that last year people were not constrained to 20 bitcoin deposit/withdrawals.. last year there were whales with 500-20,000 coins each. and there was higher daily volume.. even i was playing with thousands of coins last year. i still have the coins but no way will i throw them on an exchange. nor will other smart people

this year the AML/KYC are inhibiting the exchange rate of the visable exchanges, and people are now private trading. so the problem is NOT usage or demand/supply.. the problem is that your basing the price of 13million coins, based on transactions that amount to at most 200 coins at a time, and most of the time well below 2btc.

its got nothing to do with no one wants bitcoin. its just that no one wants to buy bitcoin from an exchange that has AML/KYC crap. PLEASE take that into account. people are still grabbing bitcoin, more so than last year, they just no doing it on exchanges directly.
again localbitcoins, bitcoin-otc, bitcoin ATM's, bitcoin meetups, private investments. are the new methods of getting bitcoin.. NOT exchanges.

compared to last year bitcoin has a 300% increase in its usability, but in actual fact it has alot more due to the fact that some of these new businesses are actually BIG corporations rather than just 'mom and pop' stores. so the effective usability of bitcoin has a 'feel' in comparitive to 1000%.

and like i said, these large corporations are not cashing out to fiat in large amounts. that is your opinion.

and as for being a forex trader, even you have seen that there are certain times of year where forex trades plato, and certain times when forex trading becomes active.

[Kprawn]

Franky1 - Are there exchanges that do not have these AML/KYC crap? And if there are, would their trades be incorporated in, determining the BTC price?

The reason, why I stayed away from using, alternative methods of buying BTC was the inherent higher risk of being scammed.

After the MtGox fiasco, I am even hesitant to buy from exchange's too. {So it's mostly ATM's and then directly to cold storage for me}

Very interresting discussion, thanks for your inputs. I am quoting this discussion on another platform too, to start this debate.

[Seldar]

1. BTC is too slow - ordinary folk are not interested in waiting any longer than their debit card takes. They expect and demand a faster technology, not a slower one.

Have you ever paid something with BTC with bitpay, coinbase...? I don't think so, it's immediate...

3. The BTC economy now is NOT as Satoshi intended. He intended millions of individual CPU's to do the mining, not a few factories of ASICs. Why is this important? Because a small number of groups have cornered mining and have manipulated the price to astronomic levels. Now that the difficulty is getting higher, and the Chinese have stepped in, these groups now have to sell as they mine to cover their costs - so the manipulation is undermined - and voila, the price drops.

Do you really think Satoshi is a moron? I've read somewhere that he was aware of the mining cost and it's concentration.

5. The media (MSM) have correctly identified BTC as a threat to government power. As the slaves to the elite political class that they are, they have jumped all over the Mt Gox disaster and deliberately terrified the population. Ordinary people are now SCARED to use BTC, thanks to these manipulative MSM bastards.

7. Many governments are going to squash BTC under their heels (using state laws) under the fake reasoning of combating terrorism/gangsters. (The real reason is that cryptos would hemorrhage power from governments).

That's good points and I agree with you.
To my mind, it's the biggest problem that bitcoin will have to face : governments.

[Jamie_Boulder]

Nope, just carrying along..hopefully starting to stabilize...

[LitcoinCollector]

Great price to buy some more!

[OrientA]

Great price to buy some more!

Only if I still have some cash.

[Meuh6879]

We are under $439, it's depressing... I am one of the burned investors.

  and six month later ... 800 USD 

[DannyHamilton]

1. BTC is too slow - ordinary folk are not interested in waiting any longer than their debit card takes. They expect and demand a faster technology, not a slower one.

I've never had a bitcoin transaction take me longer than a credit card.  I think you are mistaken.

2. The general population is completely oblivious to the fact that the central banks/governments are fleecing them. It's simply too complicated a swindle for them to realise what's going on. The schmucks.

True, but bitcoin provides some significant benefits for both merchants and consumers.  In the end, those tangible and valued benefits are what will drive adoption, not some altruistic idealism.

3. The BTC economy now is NOT as Satoshi intended. He intended millions of individual CPU's to do the mining

You are mistaken. While he may (or may not) have understood the likelihood of GPU, FPGA, and ASIC mining, he certainly understood the likelihood of large scale mining operations.

See these quotes from Satoshi:

- snip -
most users should start running client-only software and only the specialist server farms keep running full network nodes
- snip -

- snip -
Bitcoin generation should end up where it's cheapest.
- snip -

Some places where generation will gravitate to:
1) places where it's cheapest or free
- snip -

- snip -
Pool operators can modify their getwork to take one additional parameter, the address to send your share to.
- snip -
New users wouldn't really even need the Bitcoin software.  They could download a miner, create an account on mtgox or mybitcoin, enter their deposit address into the miner and point it at anyone's pool server.  When the miner says it found something, a while later a few coins show up in their account.
- snip -

4. The much-anticipated remittance opportunity is a dead duck at the moment - it can only work P2P if there is an easy way for people to directly spend their BTC after receiving them. Otherwise, the path is Fiat->BTC->Fiat->delivery (all via a third party, and all using conventional laws covering remittances)

Conventional laws and third parties do not make the remittance opportunity a "dead duck".  Regardless, as bitcoin gains usage, the "directly spending" opportunities will increase.  There are already many options to "directly spend" bitcoins, and those opportunities will only increase in the future.

5. The media (MSM) have correctly identified BTC as a threat to government power. As the slaves to the elite political class that they are, they have jumped all over the Mt Gox disaster and deliberately terrified the population. Ordinary people are now SCARED to use BTC, thanks to these manipulative MSM bastards.

There once was a time when the only source of information about current events that people had available to them was what was spoon fed to them from the "mainstream media".

In more modern times, the development of self publishing (social networks, blogs, vlogs, desktop publishing, etc) has resulted in people turning to multiple non-mainstream sources for their information.

6. The big investors - The City, Wall st - they are not fucking interested.

They appear to be beginning to develop some interest.  Old, fiscally conservative, institutions are slow to adjust to new paradigms, but they always do eventually.

They can see that cryptos are fully transparent - that's the last thing these criminals want.

Cryptos are not fully transparent.  There are many opportunities for obfuscation.  MtGox taught that lesson to many people.

7. Many governments are going to squash BTC under their heels (using state laws) under the fake reasoning of combating terrorism/gangsters. (The real reason is that cryptos would hemorrhage power from governments).

Sure.  Just like they squashed alchohol, drugs, violent crime, organized crime, and terrorism. I'll believe that they can be successful at that when I see it.

All in all, the picture looks very bleak to me.

And quite rosy to me.

Most of the rise in BTC was due to enthusiastic investors, not enthusiastic users.

Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  I'm not sure that it matters either way.  There clearly are users, and the number of users (as well as the opportunities for use) appear to be continuously increasing.

Now I believe there is going to be a prolonged decline in price.

Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  I'm not sure that it matters either way.  Bitcoin is just as useful at $0.01 per bitcoin as it is at $10,000 per bitcoin.

And I think a different cryptocurrency will eventually take hold.

I don't see any reason for that to happen.  It seems highly unlikely to me.  Can you explain why you think that way, or is it just something that you hope will happen?

Eventually, there will come a breakout crypto, and it won't be BTC. So place your bets, Ladies and Gentlemen...

I have.  I'm pretty certain that Bitcoin IS the breakout crypto.

[OrientA]

We are under $439, it's depressing... I am one of the burned investors.

  and six month later ... 800 USD 

More like $1200.

[Campsis]

429$ is really bad, it should be 600$ at least.

[BreadJoint]

429$ is really bad, it should be 600$ at least.

damn miners dump 3600 BTC a day (1.5M bucks). No wonder price drops