Crunch time!

[sgbett]

I don't trade, so I don't do a lot of what folks would probably call TA, but I do think that past price can give you some information about market participants psychology.

In the past each run up has typically been followed by a period of bottom discovery. A process which seems to be unfolding again. This is my take on whats been going on.

1. Profit taking

The ATH is in, when panic buying is finally overtaken by profit taking. This first big move usually sets the ball park for where the bottom will eventually be and this time looks to be no exception. We had three ("dead cat") bounces in december, each making lower lows. The final one we settled into the long steady decline which seeks to discover base support. This looked to have been found mid april with a capitulation sell to mid 360s. Bottom fishers pushed the price back up but the major downtrend was not ready to resolve until mid may.

2. Attempted break out

The triangle resolved, and we broke out to the upside, there wasn't really enough volume to support this move though, and as it ran out of steam we resumed the downtrend.

3. Continuation

The unconvincing breakout says to me that there was still plenty of downside left unexplored. Although we had visited lows a few months prior, the euphoria of the previous ATH lingered and sentiment was never really that bad. There was nothing like the deluge of "bitcoin is doomed" posts we are seeing now. I think thing that niggled at people's minds was the big question mark over whether the April low was really the bottom?

4. Unconfirmed

The only way to surely know something is to test it, and the market demands answers. I think we have to revisit that low and test it conclusively. We need to do it whilst sentiment is at a low (unlike in april, where false hope may have terminated the capitulation early?) only then will the market have decided whether we need to test new lows, or whether it is happy that mid 360s is a bad is it will get.

[fonzie]

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader! 
Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

[anu]

There was nothing like the deluge of "bitcoin is doomed" posts we are seeing now.

The question is how relevant this is - if anyone who matters actually reads this forum. Even if - the "Bitcoin is doomed" meme should wear out. 9/2011 Bitcoin had "The rise and fall". 7/2013 - it was dead then. Now its dead again. I am pretty sure the Bitcoin story will end at least 3 times until 2020 if you listen to trolls.

[sgbett]

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader!  
Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

Newsflash. We are visiting it now. Hence the title "crunch time". Do keep up!

If you pay attention you'll see I haven't said anything about what's going to happen just shared some speculation about what has happened.

Trolls are becoming so rabid that they don't even read before shouting you down  

[nanobrain]

Nice analysis SG; I tend to agree with what you say.  The market demands answers and fiddling around sideways is not providing any, so it is indeed 'crunch' time. 

Someone's patience will snap and we either retest support in the 340's or we break out for real. For me, much of this will do with timing: the monthly cycle tends to suggest more positive moves at the beginning of the month but the concept of the weekend dip is also valid.  So, if we can maintain the 370 - 380 range until Monday/Tuesday next week I think something positive may happen.  CLearly that is a significant "if".

[piramida]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

[sgbett]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

I think that last point is a lot more significant right now than one might think at first glance. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

[Thenen]

Best time to buy now and hold until halving.

[EuroTrash]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

Methinks: if a certain market bottom (or top) is taken for granted by the majority, it likely isn't granted to happen at all.
In fairness I still see a likely bottom around 250 but I don't discount a quick dip below 200.
Not that I'm going to take any coin out of cold storage because of this.

[inca]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

Methinks: if a certain market bottom (or top) is taken for granted by the majority, it likely isn't granted to happen at all.
In fairness I still see a likely bottom around 250 but I don't discount a quick dip below 200.
Not that I'm going to take any coin out of cold storage because of this.

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

[inca]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

I think that last point is a lot more significant right now than one might think at first glance. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

In agreement. Problem is there is a big price range from where we are now to a potential final capitulation bottom that falllling et al want to buy in at!

The way I look at it is: this isn't the end of bitcoin it is simply a transient bear market as part of a larger bull market. Buying here is therefore great value even if I cannot perfectly time the bottom, which will only become clear on a chart from the future.

[EuroTrash]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

[inca]

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

[EuroTrash]

(usual stuff and bubble graphs and we are going to zero)

Wow, that was the quickest ignore ever.

[maker88]

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader! 
Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

Says the asshole whose been spreading doom an gloom FUD for 5 months...

[maker88]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

I think that last point is a lot more significant right now than one might think at first glance. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

In agreement. Problem is there is a big price range from where we are now to a potential final capitulation bottom that falllling et al want to buy in at!

The way I look at it is: this isn't the end of bitcoin it is simply a transient bear market as part of a larger bull market. Buying here is therefore great value even if I cannot perfectly time the bottom, which will only become clear on a chart from the future.

i don't want to buy your bags not even one, you can keep it and watch your money lossing everyday

HOWEVER, stop fooling people to buy in this ponzi pyramid schemes!

Lossing is not a word. You'd think with all the money you've made shorting bitcoin and getting paid to troll this forum everyday that you'd be able to afford a dictionary and learn English.

[mano21]

I think once we hit 299 a rally will start. There is zero confidence in the markets, price is dropping every day.

Minders dgaf and will sell at any price.

[b rock]

Nice analysis SG; I tend to agree with what you say.  The market demands answers and fiddling around sideways is not providing any, so it is indeed 'crunch' time. 

Someone's patience will snap and we either retest support in the 340's or we break out for real. For me, much of this will do with timing: the monthly cycle tends to suggest more positive moves at the beginning of the month but the concept of the weekend dip is also valid.  So, if we can maintain the 370 - 380 range until Monday/Tuesday next week I think something positive may happen.  CLearly that is a significant "if".

I totally agree with you. I haven't bought a bit coin in over a year. I used them for buying things though. After missing that great run last year I decided to keep an eye on it to see if the opportunity to get in on a run presented itself.  I would be buying right now it just so happens I have money tied up in other things. I know I probably don't qualify for any loans on here so I will be watching closely, hoping it holds off another week.

[Miz4r]

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader!  
Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

Says the asshole whose been spreading doom an gloom FUD for 5 months...

Fonzie is clearly being sarcastic here, he likes to imitate bulltards and bearturds for some reason.

As for the OP, I believe we'll either see a real capitulation into the $200s or a rounded bottom formation around $350-370. A break below the previous April low will almost certainly see a sharp drop towards the old ATH at $265. My fingers are already itching to buy at this point but I'm going to be patient and see if we go below $300 and then I will definitely buy some.

[Dafar]

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.



I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich