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Author Topic: MOORE: Mining Bond Beating the Moore's Law (Collecting Shareholder Data)  (Read 17132 times)
friedcat
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May 21, 2012, 11:33:00 AM
 #21

Revision of Coupon Payments

Definitions
Financial Week: Starting from 16:00:00(GMT Time) each Tuesday, ending at 16:00:00(GMT Time) the succeeding Tuesday.

Coupon Unit: The quantity of Bitcoins paid each share each financial week.

Payment Time
We assume T(0) is the IPO starting time, T(i) is the time of i-th coupon payment, and it should satisfy:

16:00:00(GMT Time) Tuesday of the i-th financial week <= T(i) < 16:00:00(GMT Time) Wednesday of the i-th financial week

The substraction on T(i) is defined in seconds, which means that (T(i)-T(i-1)) represents "how many seconds elapse between T(i) and T(i-1)".

Amount of Payments
The coupon unit of the i-th financial week is:

10^6 * (1.0089)^(i-1) * f(i) / 2^32

in which f(i) is calculated as follows:
  f(i) = (t(1)-t(0))*B(0)/D(0) + ... + (t(n)-t(n-1))*B(n-1)/D(n-1)
     where:
        the number of the changes of difficulty and block reward between T(i-1) and T(i) is (n-1).
        t(0) equals to T(i-1).
        t(j) (when 0<j<n and n>1) means the time of the j-th change of either the difficulty or the block reward during T(i-1) and T(i).
        t(n) equals to T(i).
        B(j) means the last block reward before t(j+1).
        D(j) means the last difficulty number before t(j+1).
        The substraction on t(j) is also defined in seconds.

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Sukrim
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May 21, 2012, 11:45:19 AM
 #22

Perfect! Smiley

Just a recommendation: Plot this (with assumed constant difficulty) for 1 year and show people the nice exponential curve! Cool

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May 21, 2012, 01:35:34 PM
 #23

Looking good. Just a couple of points:
1. I find
Code:
10^6 * (1+0.89%)^(i-1) * f(i) / 2^32

a bit confusing.

Code:
10^6 * [b](1.089)[/b]^(i-1) * f(i) / 2^32

is a bit simpler and easier to parse (nitpicky I know, but still...)

2. You're still basing payment on a chronological basis which I'm sure makes ROI easier to calculate, but mean you have to use a complex function to calculate f(i). Basing the coupon period on the greatest common denominator of the block count to halving the bitcoin reward (210000) and between difficulty changes (2016) mean that you'd calculate the dividend on 336 blocks at a time. You can still pay weekly if you want, although the weekly payment will vary depending on how many sets of 336 blocks were in that time period. But the divdend calculation becomes a lot simpler. 

Good luck. I'll purchase some of these with my next lot of bond dividends.


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May 21, 2012, 01:42:42 PM
 #24

1.089 != 1 + 0.89%... Wink

1 + 0.89% is 1.0089!

Meni does this thing with 336 block "macroblocks" - there might still be an issue though with being able to game the system a bit by buying in on weeks where it's likely that they contain 1 more macroblock than other weeks, since on average one macroblock is a bit longer than 1 day.

The correct (though a bit complicated) way to do it (if you want constant time window payouts) is as friedcat already outlined: Calculate for each second how much 1 hash would be worth and sum it up for 1 week or whatever your payout frequency is.

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friedcat
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May 21, 2012, 02:20:25 PM
 #25

Looking good. Just a couple of points:
1. I find
Code:
10^6 * (1+0.89%)^(i-1) * f(i) / 2^32

a bit confusing.

Fixed. Thanks for informing.

2. You're still basing payment on a chronological basis which I'm sure makes ROI easier to calculate, but mean you have to use a complex function to calculate f(i). Basing the coupon period on the greatest common denominator of the block count to halving the bitcoin reward (210000) and between difficulty changes (2016) mean that you'd calculate the dividend on 336 blocks at a time. You can still pay weekly if you want, although the weekly payment will vary depending on how many sets of 336 blocks were in that time period. But the divdend calculation becomes a lot simpler.

I think a more faithful connection to real mining process is more important than easier coupon calculation. So I may just stick to my new calculation formula.

Good luck. I'll purchase some of these with my next lot of bond dividends.

Glad to know this. Thank you very much.

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May 21, 2012, 02:49:37 PM
 #26

1.089 != 1 + 0.89%... Wink

1 + 0.89% is 1.0089!
see what I mean by confusing!

Quote
Meni does this thing with 336 block "macroblocks" - there might still be an issue though with being able to game the system a bit by buying in on weeks where it's likely that they contain 1 more macroblock than other weeks, since on average one macroblock is a bit longer than 1 day.

The correct (though a bit complicated) way to do it (if you want constant time window payouts) is as friedcat already outlined: Calculate for each second how much 1 hash would be worth and sum it up for 1 week or whatever your payout frequency is.

Yes this is not my idea, its Meni's. I like its simplicity and it allows me to calculate the results myself pretty easily. I like the transparency. The constant time window payouts aren't a big attraction for me. I don't mind a bunch of smaller payouts.

Like I said this is all a bit nitpicky, and if friedcat is ok with the extra complexity, it really isn't a big deal. I just like simplicity where it's available.

I think a more faithful connection to real mining process is more important than easier coupon calculation. So I may just stick to my new calculation formula.

Well, I have to disagree with you there. There's no reason a bond has to be faithful to the real mining process, just faithful to the promised dividend. I guess what I'd really like is a bond that pays the same amount per dividend for a given difficulty period - or as in MOORE, an exponentially ramping amount.

Anyway, this is total offtopic, and your current system will serve just as well.

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friedcat
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May 22, 2012, 06:01:14 AM
 #27

Perfect! Smiley

Just a recommendation: Plot this (with assumed constant difficulty) for 1 year and show people the nice exponential curve! Cool

I'm now actively working on it, besides the planning of the initial portfolio, and the coordinating jobs of miners and mining operations.
Expect a detailed estimation soon. Smiley

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May 22, 2012, 07:45:07 AM
 #28

Estimated Returns vs Normal Mining Bonds

Normal Mining Bonds are assumed to have a price of 0.3BTC/share, plotted in blue.
Moore Bonds are assumed to have a price of 0.48BTC/share, plotted in red.

X-axis is the number of weeks, Y-axis is the expected total return rate from coupons.

The difficulty is set at 1,733,208.
The date when block reward reduces to 25 is set at 30 weeks later.

The first picture assumes that the difficulty does not change:



The second picture assumes that when the block rewards turns to 25, the difficulty also turns to a half, as some miners will close their operations:


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May 22, 2012, 12:34:50 PM
 #29

How many shares are you going to sell? How much does each share cost? At least I would like to know an estimated price :-)

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May 22, 2012, 01:40:32 PM
 #30

In the post above he/she valued them at 0.48 BTC per initial MH/s, about 60% above the typical 0.30 BTC that 1 MH/s bonds sell atm.

Another interesting plot would be with difficulty that increases according to Moore's law - your bonds then should show a straight line while constant bonds (while initially cheaper) will rapidly decline at some point.

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May 22, 2012, 10:55:04 PM
 #31

I'm looking forward to the IPO.

It was a cunning plan to have the funny man be the money fan of the punning clan.
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friedcat
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May 23, 2012, 07:20:05 AM
 #32

In the post above he/she valued them at 0.48 BTC per initial MH/s, about 60% above the typical 0.30 BTC that 1 MH/s bonds sell atm.

Another interesting plot would be with difficulty that increases according to Moore's law - your bonds then should show a straight line while constant bonds (while initially cheaper) will rapidly decline at some point.

The price is now finally determined at 0.48BTC/s. The amount is to be announced yet.

The following are two pictures showing that if the difficulty increases according to Moore's Law, how our bonds will perform compared to normal bonds.

Normal Mining Bonds are assumed to have a price of 0.3BTC/share, plotted in blue.
Moore Bonds are assumed to have a price of 0.48BTC/share, plotted in red.

X-axis is the number of weeks, Y-axis is the expected total return rate from coupons.

The difficulty is initially set at 1,733,208, and increases by 0.89% each week.
The date when block reward reduces to 25 is set at 30 weeks later.

The first picture assumes that the difficulty always smoothly increases:



The second picture assumes that when the block rewards turns to 25, the difficulty also turns to a half, as some miners will close their operations:


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May 23, 2012, 07:24:59 AM
 #33

Thanks for the graphs. I like graphs!  Cheesy What program did you use to produce them?

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May 23, 2012, 07:28:46 AM
 #34

Thanks for the graphs. I like graphs!  Cheesy What program did you use to produce them?

I wrote a little script to generate the data, then using Excel to plot them.
It's the standard and most painless way for me. Smiley

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May 23, 2012, 12:03:44 PM
 #35

Update

The price of IPO is set at 0.480.50 BTC/s.

The price of bulk purchase is 0.45 BTC/s(6.6710.00% discount), but each trade has to involve larger than 500 shares(225 BTC). Please PM me for trades, and find witnesses/make records on replies if necessary.

The total amount of our initial release will be less than or equal to 20,000 shares.
It depends on how the bulk purchase goes on.

Thanks to everyone who's interested. Smiley

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May 23, 2012, 01:55:28 PM
 #36

Update

The price is adjusted. The bulk purchase price is unchanged, but the IPO price is increased to 0.50 BTC/share.

Since the IPO hasn't started, I hope this will not provoke too much confusion.

I am very sorry but the first round is priced at the lowest bound in our profit-risk estimation, therefore after some consideration, we decided to re-price them.

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May 23, 2012, 02:16:41 PM
 #37

This looks very interesting.  Subscribe.

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May 23, 2012, 03:27:02 PM
 #38

Are you a mining company who will utilize the funds directly, or are you using the proceeds to purchase other mining bonds?

Also, when is the IPO ( or did I already miss it )?

Thanks.
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May 23, 2012, 07:36:56 PM
 #39

The MOORE IPO time has passed; when will the opening asks be posted?

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May 23, 2012, 11:40:57 PM
 #40

The MOORE IPO time has passed; when will the opening asks be posted?

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