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 Author Topic: [SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)  (Read 18977 times)
robocoin
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 December 04, 2012, 05:10:24 PM

(...)

I just madde two charts for a friend, so I can as well just post them here:

[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/35mlk6o.png
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl

[IMG]http://i46.tinypic.com/o0dt2b.png
https://ferroh.com/chart

The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12\$ (weaker support) to 11\$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13\$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.

The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11\$ in our case).

Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77\$ to 13\$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)

Spekulatius! Do have some tips for good books on basic financial probabilistics? (German is also fine :-) What algorithms/ formulas worked best for you?

I never read a book about it. Its all on the net. Here are some good addresses to dig into if you are interested or dont know where to start. A good place to start with is investopia. Google searches generate helpful results as well (also in German!).

These are the basic things you should master if you want to do chart analysis (in this order):
- Reading different chart types (Closing Price, OHLC, Candle,..)
- Trends (what is a trend?, How to spot trends?, When do trends reverse?,..)
- Chart patterns (double top, triple bottom, diamonds,..)
- Fibonacci Reversals
- Indicators (Volume, Clouds, PSAR, RSI, Moving Averages, OBV,..)

investopedia.com (THE place to learn chart analysis)
There is so much helpful info around here to be found, one can easily loose orientation. some suggestions to start with:
http://www.investopedia.com/walkthrough/forex/beginner/level3/economic-data.aspx#axzz24gXlMoH1
http://www.investopedia.com/video/forex/#axzz24gXlMoH1
...
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm#triangle (super Elliot Wave Theory explaination; Elliot Waves, btw is advanced stuff and only apply to Bitcoin within limits IMO.)
http://www.wavaholic.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-rules-and-guidelines.html

First thing you do when looking at charts is determining the overall market sentiment (bull market or bear market?? Where are we in the Trader cycle of emotions? That helps to put everything else into context. Most impact on price have BIG news (like the recent wordpress one), they can overrule anything you think you see in a chart. Followed by that are chart patterns, for they have the best prediction power IMO. Thirdly I look at the volume, then other indicators like RSI, Bollinger Band, PSAR, the EMAs and OBV (mostly in that order).

The indicators I use: Bollinger Band, RSI, PSAR, Volume, EMA 10, EMA 21, OBV

You should in regular intervals re-evaluate the fundamentals of the market (market cap, tx count, product announcements and those still in the pipeline, legal framework and development,..). If they change, price changes. If you spot changes first, you are ahead of the market.

Now, I think you got some literature to chew on till next christmas, the good news however: The is still more!
If u got questions, PM me. And good luck!

Thanks a lot!!!!!
Let's see if I make through the materials before my course starts: https://www.coursera.org/course/compfinance
Thanks to Bitcoin I have a chance to monetarize some programming skills (without big amounts on traditional markets). For now my only tools are news and emotions

And this tells me we'll cycle down by tonight^^
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Legendary

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 December 04, 2012, 08:06:03 PM

Keep in mind that most technical indicators based on price tend to look like the price action they are applied to, except they are 'detrended' or normalized around a common 'zero' point. This is why you get 'oversold' or 'overbought' conditions - which really don't help at all.

A real indicator doesn't get pegged at the extremes, beware of the ones that do - they're pretty much useless.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
Spekulatius
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 December 04, 2012, 08:30:07 PM

Keep in mind that most technical indicators based on price tend to look like the price action they are applied to, except they are 'detrended' or normalized around a common 'zero' point. This is why you get 'oversold' or 'overbought' conditions - which really don't help at all.

A real indicator doesn't get pegged at the extremes, beware of the ones that do - they're pretty much useless.

I find RSI, for example, which makes a perfect poster oscillator, very helpful. Keep in mind to NOT only rely on oscillators (those indicators that oscillate around a zero value)! Always put them into context and combine them with other indicators, chart patterns, etc.
What gives many ppl the idea indicators wouldnt be worth much is that they apply them only or use them wrongly. The RSI for example appears to predict the market very well at first, till you realise it always lags price movement. Nevertheless is it a great tool to pick entry- and exit points. Compare an arbitrarily large time frame with reasonable intervals and you will see, the RSI mostly predicts good entry and exit opportunities.
Legendary

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 December 05, 2012, 12:12:38 AM

Keep in mind that most technical indicators based on price tend to look like the price action they are applied to, except they are 'detrended' or normalized around a common 'zero' point. This is why you get 'oversold' or 'overbought' conditions - which really don't help at all.

A real indicator doesn't get pegged at the extremes, beware of the ones that do - they're pretty much useless.

I find RSI, for example, which makes a perfect poster oscillator, very helpful. Keep in mind to NOT only rely on oscillators (those indicators that oscillate around a zero value)! Always put them into context and combine them with other indicators, chart patterns, etc.
What gives many ppl the idea indicators wouldnt be worth much is that they apply them only or use them wrongly. The RSI for example appears to predict the market very well at first, till you realise it always lags price movement. Nevertheless is it a great tool to pick entry- and exit points. Compare an arbitrarily large time frame with reasonable intervals and you will see, the RSI mostly predicts good entry and exit opportunities.

I've spent a good deal of my life developing trading systems for various markets. I used to do so on the actual trading floor, then moved to off-floor for other opportunities. I see your point about RSI, you recognize its characteristics and if you can weave that into a system you're familiar with, good for you.

My point revolves largely on indicators that are predictive, not reactive. Yes, they exist, and no - I'm not about to expose what works (it took a LOT of iterations to get where I am right now). Suffice to say, there are things in price action that can be used for predictive purposes that exceed random 'chance' correlations. I'm not claiming perfect performance, but enough of an 'edge' that can be used in an automated strategy.

That is why when I see an indicator lagging or merely displaying price-influenced characteristics quite transparently (Peaks when price peaks, turns down when price turns down) -- I'm immediately cued into the fact that I'm dealing with a simple formulaic projection of price that provides zero predictive power.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)

 December 05, 2012, 03:10:43 AM

special thx to RyNinDaCleM for pointing my failure on wave B

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
da2ce7
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Live and Let Live

 December 05, 2012, 03:25:11 AM

One off NP-Hard.
Spekulatius
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 December 10, 2012, 11:45:28 PM

I just made two charts for a friend, so I can as well just post them here:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zigDailyztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi2gRSIzvzcvzl

https://ferroh.com/chart

The first chart shows some severely low volumes at rising prices. A correction to more stable levels is immanent, unless volumes rise up shortly. The target area is 12\$ (weaker support) to 11\$ (stronger support). I would say chances are 85% for a soon drop versus 15% chance that we make it above 13\$ and stay there for a couple o days at least.

The second chart illustrates the text book double top, that would form if a price drop occurred. In such a pattern, prices drop to levels where they commenced the pattern (around 11\$ in our case).

Above all, the upward triangle shows from 9.77\$ to 13\$. I doubt that we will break it with this attempt, but rather sometime within the this month (could be the best christmas present yet;)

I think its save to say: "The volume has returned and we can continue our rally without fear!"

myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)

 December 11, 2012, 04:21:47 PM

bulls is now or never

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
proudhon
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 December 11, 2012, 04:51:02 PM

bulls is now or never

Wow.  Probably a good time to short.  Looks like we're going back down to around \$1.
Yuhfhrh
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 December 11, 2012, 05:00:53 PM

bulls is now or never

[/url]

Wow.  Probably a good time to short.  Looks like we're going back down to around \$1.

Legendary

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 December 11, 2012, 09:26:34 PM

Something to recall when considering triangle formations is that they tend to breakout dramatically. In my chartist opinion, we're looking at a long-term ascending triangle.

Reference: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp#axzz2EmTEbeFx

One of the reasons I love charting BTC is that it traces out the 'classic' chartist patterns - unlike the current high-frequency trading saturated markets now.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
Spekulatius
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 December 11, 2012, 11:37:50 PM

bulls is now or never

Doesnt look like a particularly (i.e. well tested) resistance. The support however is much battle-tested. Should go to 20\$ soon
myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)

 December 12, 2012, 06:07:34 PM

possible targets if we get a break-out with big volume 60 min chart
http://yfrog.com/kj4ulep

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)

 December 14, 2012, 04:43:54 PM

price and accumulation/distribution divergence 1h chart

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
cloon
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 December 14, 2012, 09:32:09 PM

line broken:

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myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)

 December 15, 2012, 05:59:22 AM

it seams to be a minor accumulation, confirmation come when the low is taken out

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
cloon
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 January 05, 2013, 02:50:09 PM

I see this "stable" zone since we've broken the parrallel uptrend channel as:

1. a correction:
if we hold the longest blue line and breake through 13.8-13.9 -> return to uptrend

or:
2. as a midterm top:
if we breake through the longest blue line there are the resistances:
- minor between 12.8-13.1
- major at 12 (green line from altime high)
but longterm the uptrend looks still intact so after a short decent i expect remaining uptrend!

(longest blue line comes from the bottom of 20.08.12)

IMO option 2 looks more possible...what are your thoughts?

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Legendary

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Trusted Bitcoiner

 January 05, 2013, 05:05:50 PM

I see this "stable" zone since we've broken the parrallel uptrend channel as:

1. a correction:
if we hold the longest blue line and breake through 13.8-13.9 -> return to uptrend

or:
2. as a midterm top:
if we breake through the longest blue line there are the resistances:
- minor between 12.8-13.1
- major at 12 (green line from altime high)
but longterm the uptrend looks still intact so after a short decent i expect remaining uptrend!

(longest blue line comes from the bottom of 20.08.12)

IMO option 2 looks more possible...what are your thoughts?

I agree with this 100%

I believe bitcoin is still in "price discovery mode" no one really knows what its worth to everyone else, everyone is scared of huge players sitting on mountains of coins just waiting to crash the market. no one wants to drive the price up, but at the same time everyone wants a piece of the action. I see option 2 as very likely, we all need to see how the market reacts to a slow price drop, we all need to see just how strong support at 12\$ really is, b4 we blast off. i believe we will blast off because the truth is no one is sitting a huge mountains of coins, and if they are they have no intention to crash the market, EVER. So let the price drop and lets get the show on the road!

cloon
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 January 08, 2013, 05:14:29 PM

I see this "stable" zone since we've broken the parrallel uptrend channel as:

1. a correction:
if we hold the longest blue line and breake through 13.8-13.9 -> return to uptrend

or:
2. as a midterm top:
if we breake through the longest blue line there are the resistances:
- minor between 12.8-13.1
- major at 12 (green line from altime high)
but longterm the uptrend looks still intact so after a short decent i expect remaining uptrend!

(longest blue line comes from the bottom of 20.08.12)

IMO option 2 looks more possible...what are your thoughts?

I agree with this 100%

I believe bitcoin is still in "price discovery mode" no one really knows what its worth to everyone else, everyone is scared of huge players sitting on mountains of coins just waiting to crash the market. no one wants to drive the price up, but at the same time everyone wants a piece of the action. I see option 2 as very likely, we all need to see how the market reacts to a slow price drop, we all need to see just how strong support at 12\$ really is, b4 we blast off. i believe we will blast off because the truth is no one is sitting a huge mountains of coins, and if they are they have no intention to crash the market, EVER. So let the price drop and lets get the show on the road!

looks like its going for option 1
upper blue horizontal line broken

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cloon
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 January 17, 2013, 02:11:44 PM

here's my update with the nest resistances and supports
i see a rise to 16 very possible, if not up to ~18
support is quite strong (shouldn't fall below 14)

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