[SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)

[Spekulatius]

Im just sad I didnt buy some of that BTCs at bitstamp for 7.96 $ about 30 minutes ago, just when I saw the price climbing at MtGox (to 8.50$)

Anyways, I gonna buy back more when we hit 4$ 

[augustocroppo]

 

Understanding The Time Value Of Money

Congratulations! You have won a cash prize! You have two payment options: A - Receive $10,000 now OR B - Receive $10,000 in three years. Which option would you choose?

But why is this? A $100 bill has the same value as a $100 bill one year from now, doesn't it? Actually, although the bill is the same, you can do much more with the money if you have it now because over time you can earn more interest on your money.

Back to our example: by receiving $10,000 today, you are poised to increase the future value of your money by investing and gaining interest over a period of time. For Option B, you don't have time on your side, and the payment received in three years would be your future value.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/082703.asp#ixzz2439XkzpN

http://bitcoinstats.org/



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[augustocroppo]

 

Reversal

A reversal can be a positive or negative change against the prevailing trend. Technical analysts watch for these patterns because they can indicate the need for a different trading strategy on the same security.

For example, if a technical analyst holds stock ABC and notices a reversal pattern, he or she may want to consider closing his or her existing long position and assuming a short position to capitalize on the potential downward movement of the stock's price.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversal.asp#ixzz243LLvBf8

Edit: see post #26

[Spekulatius]

No correction till we cross that trendline (currently around 11$). Also we would have to remain there. The current depth on MtGox makes a sudden fall back easy as soon as lets say rumors of the first major lenders of BS&T start to go around or a big ASK wall pops up. Before the end of the day I wouldnt call it that.

Keep calm, carry on

[augustocroppo]

Before 20/08/2012 23:59:00 (UTC):

High, US$ 11
Low, US$ 8.5

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2zig15-minztgCzm1g10zm2g25zi1gAccDistzi2gROCzcv

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[TraderTimm]

Here's my guess - I think we're reaching an equilibrium point from the initial downtrend.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1ZWV2Mk9LTmplMEE

[augustocroppo]

 

Aug 21, 2012 00:29:42 (UTC)

Code:

Expected Bitcoins			21000000
	
Produced Bitcoins			9745100
Transactions last 24h			36916
Transactions avg. per hour		1538.17
Bitcoins sent last 24h			9684679.76
Bitcoins sent avg. per hour		403528.32
	
Bitcoin reserve				11254900

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/



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[Spekulatius]

-deleted-

Most of the bitcoins sent per day are the same coins just sent back and forth. Your assumption (if I understand correctly), that nearly half of all bitcoins in existence have been moved today is wrong. A good idea of of the actual unique coins that move around per given time frame gives this chart: http://ecdsa.org/stats.html
This could also be helpfull: https://blockchain.info/charts --> goto bitcoin days destroyed

[Spekulatius]

Here's my guess - I think we're reaching an equilibrium point from the initial downtrend.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1ZWV2Mk9LTmplMEE

I would even say we are at the bottom of this correction from a pure technical analysis (TA) point of view. Nevertheless with the impending payback looming, as well as further price manipulation through Pirate (e.g. 100k BTC ASK walls) and resulting mass panicking I see us heading further down.
The price is on hold as it seems. Over the last 20 hrs we have halted further appreciation because of the above expectations IMO.
IF Pirate does not payback within the next few ours (at least partially) I would expect a sudden rise due to the diminished risk of the above possibility becoming reality. If he however does payback I expect the above scenario to unfold. We are at a cross road right now. The next signals will be crucial.

[augustocroppo]

Most of the bitcoins sent per day are the same coins just sent back and forth. Your assumption (if I understand correctly), that nearly half of all bitcoins in existence have been moved today is wrong. A good idea of of the actual unique coins that move around per given time frame gives this chart: http://ecdsa.org/stats.html

This could also be helpfull: https://blockchain.info/charts --> goto bitcoin days destroyed

Not at all.

I am just showing the number of Bitcoins sent in the last 24 hours as informed by the Bitcoin Charts internet page.

Thank you, anyway.

Now, could you edit and remove my content from your post? I will update that...

Thank you, again.

[Spekulatius]

Hmm, I have to admit that I dont understand your graph. Would you pls explain?

[augustocroppo]

Hmm, I have to admit that I dont understand your graph. Would you pls explain?

I updated the post to correct the underlying assumption. Could you remove the old content from your post, please?

[Spekulatius]

I still dont get your graph but if it is your desire...

content deleted

[augustocroppo]

I still dont get your graph but if it is your desire...

content deleted

Sorry, Spekulatius, I thought you would understand after the update.

Anyway, the graph represents the sum of the already produced Bitcoins and the Bitcoins sent in the last 24 hours. So the representation in % means the fraction of the sum.

E.g.:

9745100.00 (50%) + 9684679.76 (50%) = 19429779.76 (100%)


 

[Spekulatius]

Ok, so your graph just illustrates this relation, I see. Is it intended to provide any practical use?

[Spekulatius]

Here's my guess - I think we're reaching an equilibrium point from the initial downtrend.

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0BzdbolIn7zf1ZWV2Mk9LTmplMEE

I would even say we are at the bottom of this correction from a pure technical analysis (TA) point of view. Nevertheless with the impending payback looming, as well as further price manipulation through Pirate (e.g. 100k BTC ASK walls) and resulting mass panicking I see us heading further down.
The price is on hold as it seems. Over the last 20 hrs we have halted further appreciation because of the above expectations IMO.
IF Pirate does not payback within the next few ours (at least partially) I would expect a sudden rise due to the diminished risk of the above possibility becoming reality. If he however does payback I expect the above scenario to unfold. We are at a cross road right now. The next signals will be crucial.

-Update- Ok guys, I think we are in for a half day rally (or till the first payouts are confirmed). Pirate just announced on IRC that he's doing all he can but will take more time then previously expected: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.msg1118479#msg1118479

The market should now adjust to the shifted default risk, i.e. go up. I would expect a rally to 11-12$ within 12-20 hrs.

[augustocroppo]

Ok, so your graph just illustrates this relation, I see. Is it intended to provide any practical use?

If your strategy is based on the law of supply and demand, yes.

[Spekulatius]

Hm, I dont know. Nor the number of total bitcoins in existence nor the bitcoin being transferred on a daily basis really give a representative picture of supply and demand IMO. A better indicator may be the MtGox order book with all bitcoins currently for sale and also ASK orders. Derived from that the spread which can be live monitored at mtgoxlive.com or btccharts.com

[augustocroppo]

Hm, I dont know. Nor the number of total bitcoins in existence nor the bitcoin being transferred on a daily basis really give a representative picture of supply and demand IMO. A better indicator may be the MtGox order book with all bitcoins currently for sale and also ASK orders. Derived from that the spread which can be live monitored at mtgoxlive.com or btccharts.com

But the Mt.Gox market does not represent the Bitcoin network. Like in any economic model, not all consumers and producers which utilize a given currency are necessarily relying on the exchange markets. However, the exchange markets react to events outside its influence. There is where the graph could show how the exchange markets would respond to changes in the supply and demand occurrences across the Bitcoin network.

[augustocroppo]

Aug 21, 2012 21:38:07 (UTC)

Bearish Reversal

(...) In this regard, the indicator is used to either reinforce the underlying trend or cast doubts on its sustainability. An uptrend in prices with a downtrend in the Accumulation Distribution Line suggests underlying selling pressure (distribution) that could foreshadow a bearish reversal on the price chart. (...)

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:accumulation_distrib

ttp://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2zig15-minzczsg2012-08-22zeg2012-08-22ztgCzm1g10zm2g25zi1gAccDistzi2gOBVzcv

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