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Author Topic: [SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)  (Read 18735 times)
Spekulatius
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September 08, 2012, 01:59:37 PM
 #81







This is todays analysis by me. The most important signals will be generated shortly by the outcome of this triangle (see upper chart). If we break out, the rally may continue. First resistance slightly above 12$ (see high volume on the 18th of August just above 12$ in lower chart), second resistance 15$.

If we break below the green support line in the upper chart, price will head down and may test a number of supports at 10$, 8$, 6$, 5$.

The support is however VERY stable and well tested (see lower chart). A break below that support is therefore unlikely.

Further indicators:

Parabolic SAR
: Currently pointing up for all time periods 6hrs+ (12hrs, days, weeks)

(Goombo's) EMA (10) & EMA(21):
Currently pointing up for all time periods 6hrs+ (12hrs, days, weeks)
Note: In chart above it says: SMA (21) when it should say EMA (21). That doesnt change the uptrend assurance of this indicator, because EMA (21) behaves almost identically in this case

Volume: Decreasing volume during down turns, highest volumes during up candles

News: Lots of coverage lately (bad publicity is GOOD publicity for an unknown product like bitcoin), more in the pipeline: Larry Flynt, Bitcoin Conference on the 15th and 16th of September in London, Mystery Announcement coming up,..

Short Term: UP

Mid Term: UP

Long Term: UP

-edit- Full disclosure: I last bought in at 10.86$ and am all in BTC right now.
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Spekulatius
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September 11, 2012, 02:17:08 AM
 #82

SHOWTIME! Grin Grin Grin

The triangle's gotta decide today, what's it gonna be, UP or NOT??!
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September 11, 2012, 02:44:16 AM
 #83

SHOWTIME! Grin Grin Grin

The triangle's gotta decide today, what's it gonna be, UP or NOT??!

nice sell off just happened.

price is still mostly unchanged tho  Kiss

i think UP

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September 11, 2012, 03:14:03 AM
 #84

Are these projections still relevant in this market? I'm an absolute noob but it seems to me that any time the price sneaks over about $11.15 there is a massive several thousand bitcoin sell-off and the price ends up just over $10.9 again. This has been happening for a while now. I can't see how anything much is going to change until these sell-offs run their course

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September 11, 2012, 03:28:23 AM
 #85

Are these projections still relevant in this market? I'm an absolute noob but it seems to me that any time the price sneaks over about $11.15 there is a massive several thousand bitcoin sell-off and the price ends up just over $10.9 again. This has been happening for a while now. I can't see how anything much is going to change until these sell-offs run their course

that's the idea. everyone has a price, and 11.15 is it for many people.

10 is looking more and more like the new 5


keewee
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September 11, 2012, 03:38:20 AM
 #86

So that last big sell-off was approximately 15,000btc. That's not unusual?

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September 11, 2012, 03:41:55 AM
 #87

.
adamstgBit
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September 11, 2012, 03:46:06 AM
 #88

So that last big sell-off was approximately 15,000btc. That's not unusual?

it was about 9,000BTC

and no its not unusual.

just look at the charts volume at a 15 min interval

sell offs like this happen all the time.

like i said everyone has a price.



IMO this is a very good sign. it means as people take their profits from long term hording, the coins are being more and more evenly distributed.

keewee
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September 11, 2012, 07:08:52 AM
 #89

IMO this is a very good sign. it means as people take their profits from long term hording, the coins are being more and more evenly distributed.

Ah yes, I was thinking the same regarding the distribution of the coins. For everyone selling there must be buyers so those huge sell-offs must end up in multiple wallets.

My 15,000 figure came from the Clark Moody realtime chart. Is the other chart averaged over the 15 minute period? This is what I saw:


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Spekulatius
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September 11, 2012, 12:48:31 PM
 #90

Are these projections still relevant in this market? I'm an absolute noob but it seems to me that any time the price sneaks over about $11.15 there is a massive several thousand bitcoin sell-off and the price ends up just over $10.9 again. This has been happening for a while now. I can't see how anything much is going to change until these sell-offs run their course

Yes they are.

20k+ BTC dumps are not so extraordinary. They have increased in frequency over the past rally, maybe due to some major players trying to manipulate the market.

If the price jumps back to where it was before the big dump in a relatively short period of time, that indicates thatmove can be viewed as variance rather then mutual market moves. That just happened and is in our case a bullish sign.

This player will eventually run out of bitcoin or dedide to sell at higher rates. As long as market mood stays up, we are bound to go up.
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September 11, 2012, 04:24:15 PM
 #91

Price Stabilizes and pirate gets pissed on.



















 






keewee
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September 11, 2012, 06:51:43 PM
 #92

Thanks everyone, I get it now. This stability is a good thing and a positive sign for the near future. Have to admit I was kinda hoping the price would tank for a bit so I could pick up some more cheap coins, but up is good  Smiley

And mem, you're quite the artist!  Grin

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September 21, 2012, 10:52:54 AM
 #93


the triangle it built is broken.
now it looks like a standart retest of broken line at 12USD
next resistance at last high ~15.5USD
i dont see much downward pressure in the market

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September 21, 2012, 12:11:58 PM
 #94

I still don't agree with calling the current situation "stability". True, volatility isn't super large, but that could be random, or caused by people following some strange trend line. But look at the volume in BTC:



What I see is no real testing of liquidity after gigantic and clearly unreasonable price swings. I say unreasonable because they went up-down-up, now there, a lot of people clearly didn't make up their minds where price should be. Rally to the moon or not, who knows, but the lack of volume afterward and the notably weaker order book IMO show that price levels haven't been tested enough.

I also don't get the point of creating straight lines in a price/time chart, at least not ones that are this long. If these become normal, Goomboo and the turtles take out everyone eventually. Oh wow, if he's still on this, he must've made a killing in the last three months. Grin
augustocroppo
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September 22, 2012, 12:25:12 AM
 #95

DO NOT QUOTE THIS POST. POSSIBLE LATER UPDATE.

Expected Bitcoins: 21000000
   
Produced Bitcoins: 9995950
Transactions last 24h: 30269
Transactions avg. per hour: 1261.21
Bitcoins sent last 24h: 25488311.14
Bitcoins sent avg. per hour: 1062012.96

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/



http://bitcoinstats.org/



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Otoh
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September 24, 2012, 12:22:32 PM
 #96

The pirate pincers or Texas triangle



I wonder if 12 will continue hold by the end of tomorrow - I somehow doubt it myself Wink

But lets see what happens on Wednesday, when everything changes ~ changes

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Otoh
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September 26, 2012, 08:39:03 AM
 #97

Nothing happened yesterday, how about today now I wonder?


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Yuhfhrh
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September 26, 2012, 09:06:07 AM
 #98

Nothing happened yesterday, how about today now I wonder?



I keep telling myself we are going down... but why does it feel like a rally is about to start?
Spekulatius
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September 26, 2012, 04:37:33 PM
 #99







I keep telling myself we are going down... but why does it feel like a rally is about to start?

Maybe because the underlying trend (see green support in top piucture) is still UP?
Also most indicators point upwards (on a daily scale: PSAR, Bollinger Band, Candle Sticks closing high, EMA 10 and EMA 21, Stoch RSI (14))
The only relevant ones (IMO) pointing down are RSI and the fact that we actually broke that weaker support (see lower picture) on the 21st of September.

My prediction:
with a 70% likely hood outbreak upwards incoming. An uptick above 12.30 $ signals the outbreak, a break through 12.70$ (new high) verifies it.

Sorry, I was too lazy to make updated pictures, the charts above are still valid though.
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September 26, 2012, 04:47:48 PM
 #100

-the now building triangle is quiet stump eventually it will lengthen a bit...

Then it won't be a triangle anymore....
Just saying.

True, but from the ashes shall arise a new triangle.  A better triangle.  A longer triangle.
A triangle to beat all other triangles you say?
Oh boy oh boy oh boy!!
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