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Author Topic: [SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)  (Read 18719 times)
Otoh
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September 27, 2012, 11:59:09 PM
 #101

An attempt to cancel out all the pirate noise & just assume that there has been a general increase of interest in bitcoin since June & that it will continue along those lines


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mobodick
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September 28, 2012, 02:36:34 AM
 #102

An attempt to cancel out all the pirate noise & just assume that there has been a general increase of interest in bitcoin since June & that it will continue along those lines



Why would general interest growth be a linear process?
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September 28, 2012, 09:04:12 AM
 #103

An attempt to cancel out all the pirate noise & just assume that there has been a general increase of interest in bitcoin since June & that it will continue along those lines

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Why would general interest growth be a linear process?


No reason that it has to be, but any move over the blue line would show increasing interest & a move bellow the red line a fall off in interest or profit taking, with a price around the yellow line showing a similar linear growth that's being going on for nearly 4 months now if the pirate noise is ignored.

This is probably a very naive way of looking at the trend but maybe the sort of reasoning some others may follow instinctively especially if they're not in to serious TA, I'm interested in how we continue to travel within that approx 1 btc rising band & if it is really a general trend or will it break down (or up) soon, just my personal analysis (or one of them) of what may be going on atm. I'll update it in about a months time if we're still within the band.

Edit to add: For contrast here's an example of bitcoin exponential growth when ignoring the bubbles, particularly in mid 2011. (taken from http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/koch20120927)


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September 28, 2012, 01:03:11 PM
 #104

An attempt to cancel out all the pirate noise & just assume that there has been a general increase of interest in bitcoin since June & that it will continue along those lines

pic

Why would general interest growth be a linear process?


No reason that it has to be, but any move over the blue line would show increasing interest & a move bellow the red line a fall off in interest or profit taking, with a price around the yellow line showing a similar linear growth that's being going on for nearly 4 months now if the pirate noise is ignored.

This is probably a very naive way of looking at the trend but maybe the sort of reasoning some others may follow instinctively especially if they're not in to serious TA, I'm interested in how we continue to travel within that approx 1 btc rising band & if it is really a general trend or will it break down (or up) soon, just my personal analysis (or one of them) of what may be going on atm. I'll update it in about a months time if we're still within the band.

Edit to add: For contrast here's an example of bitcoin exponential growth when ignoring the bubbles, particularly in mid 2011. (taken from http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/koch20120927)







Still looks way too arbitrary to me.
If there is no reason for the growth to be linear then why is it?
I don't think that this growth of the past few months is a sign of growth in interest as i can't imagine why this would be a straight line over such an extended period.
I would say that you're not naive enough in your interpretation. IMO you should let go of the idea that the movement in price is created by 'normal' bitcoin economy interactions.

A few weeks ago i found something about bitcoin that has since puzzled me.
Look at this graph (i think it is a much better example of bitcoin exponential growth):



At first i simply connected the bottoms of the triangles with straight lines, but then saw that it looks like an exponential curve so i created an exponential graph in another tool and after some experimentation got an exponent that fits the bitcoin bottom and combined it with the bitcoin price chart.

So now i have this idea of a synthetic bottom to bitcoin with waves of 'something' (could be interpreted as the actual bitcoin market interactions) riding on top of it.
I mean, with all the dynamics in bitcoinland, how the hell would the community maintain such a precise curve for the bottom of price?
It seems to me there is something built into bitcoin that makes the network itself have this effect.

Anyone has a better explanation?

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September 28, 2012, 02:34:43 PM
 #105

@ mobo: Whats that formular?
mobodick
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September 28, 2012, 03:00:36 PM
 #106

@ mobo: Whats that formular?

For this log chart i used a x^1.82 function (iirc). Then i mirrored horizontally and rotated 90 deg.
But the exponent would vary with how the chart is scaled.
If you look at these bottom points in linear view then you see a slightly accelerating rise in price.
So in linear view it would be an exponent close to but bigger than 1.
But what i find shocking is that there is this very nice simple relation of the bottom to an exponential function.
And i have absolutely no idea what supports it!
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September 28, 2012, 05:57:10 PM
 #107

It's interesting and all, but honestly you can take a few repeatable phenomena and find a 'match' to historical data. Some technical analysis uses FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) to extract dominant cycles and attempt to get turning points for tops and bottoms. Fib numbers, golden mean, all of it - you can get some interesting 'hits', but the numbers don't imply much for price action in the predictive sense.

That is a very nice exponential function, though. If anything, perhaps you're keyed into the adoption rate of bitcoin independent of the traded price. That's my guess, at any rate.

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September 28, 2012, 06:10:36 PM
 #108

It's interesting and all, but honestly you can take a few repeatable phenomena and find a 'match' to historical data. Some technical analysis uses FFT (Fast Fourier Transform) to extract dominant cycles and attempt to get turning points for tops and bottoms. Fib numbers, golden mean, all of it - you can get some interesting 'hits', but the numbers don't imply much for price action in the predictive sense.

That is a very nice exponential function, though. If anything, perhaps you're keyed into the adoption rate of bitcoin independent of the traded price. That's my guess, at any rate.

Yes, it is nicely exponential.
And thats why i don't think it's a natural movement like adoption rate.
Things like press and conferences should have has a more random effect on it.
Why would adoption rate (or any other 'natural' behavioral phenomenon) be so exact on such a small scale?
I mean, the start of this function is 2 years old. Adoption at that time was chunky.
But the price never drops below the function. If it was something like adoption then it would have swung around it.
 Undecided
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September 28, 2012, 06:53:29 PM
 #109

@ mobo: Whats that formular?

For this log chart i used a x^1.82 function (iirc). Then i mirrored horizontally and rotated 90 deg.
But the exponent would vary with how the chart is scaled.
If you look at these bottom points in linear view then you see a slightly accelerating rise in price.
So in linear view it would be an exponent close to but bigger than 1.
But what i find shocking is that there is this very nice simple relation of the bottom to an exponential function.
And i have absolutely no idea what supports it!


When you plot a log curve on a log chart, what does that look like on a linear chart?  Does it mean linear growth?

All exponential growth shows up as a straight line on a log chart doesn't it?

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September 28, 2012, 07:04:03 PM
 #110

@ mobo: Whats that formular?

For this log chart i used a x^1.82 function (iirc). Then i mirrored horizontally and rotated 90 deg.
But the exponent would vary with how the chart is scaled.
If you look at these bottom points in linear view then you see a slightly accelerating rise in price.
So in linear view it would be an exponent close to but bigger than 1.
But what i find shocking is that there is this very nice simple relation of the bottom to an exponential function.
And i have absolutely no idea what supports it!


When you plot a log curve on a log chart, what does that look like on a linear chart?  Does it mean linear growth?

All exponential growth shows up as a straight line on a log chart doesn't it?

it depends on how hard exponential the graph compared to the exponential chart axis...

you can plot a log courve (not a hard one) on a log chart and it could still be exponential on a linear chart... (like bitcoin looks now^^)

just a guess ... didnt proof it mathematically... if I get time to, I'll do it...


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September 28, 2012, 07:06:11 PM
 #111

@ mobo: Whats that formular?

For this log chart i used a x^1.82 function (iirc). Then i mirrored horizontally and rotated 90 deg.
But the exponent would vary with how the chart is scaled.
If you look at these bottom points in linear view then you see a slightly accelerating rise in price.
So in linear view it would be an exponent close to but bigger than 1.
But what i find shocking is that there is this very nice simple relation of the bottom to an exponential function.
And i have absolutely no idea what supports it!


When you plot a log curve on a log chart, what does that look like on a linear chart?  Does it mean linear growth?

All exponential growth shows up as a straight line on a log chart doesn't it?

You're right.
I shouldn't call it an exponential function as that implies e
It's just a simple function of the form f(x) = x^r where r is a constant.

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September 28, 2012, 10:27:51 PM
 #112


X is years from founding and Y is total value (Bitcoin)/revenue (paypal).

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October 10, 2012, 03:27:15 PM
 #113



Neutral triangle (slightly downward) closing at 24:00 UTC on 11th of October 2012.

Resistance (red) is stronger then support (green), because more often tested --> more likely the outbreak will be downward

PSAR points down and confirms resistance.

Dead Cat Bounce from 10.60$ to 12.40$ went along decreasing volume which indicates decreasing buy interest among traders --> Correction is due and likely as outcome of triangle

Short term: DOWN
Target price: 11.20$

Mid term: UP

Long term: UP



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October 12, 2012, 12:01:49 AM
 #114



Neutral triangle (slightly downward) closing at 24:00 UTC on 11th of October 2012.

Resistance (red) is stronger then support (green), because more often tested --> more likely the outbreak will be downward

PSAR points down and confirms resistance.

Dead Cat Bounce from 10.60$ to 12.40$ went along decreasing volume which indicates decreasing buy interest among traders --> Correction is due and likely as outcome of triangle

Short term: DOWN
Target price: 11.20$

Mid term: UP

Long term: UP


There is no 24:00... do you mean 00:00 on the 12th?

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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October 12, 2012, 12:23:28 AM
 #115

I'm pretty sure the little volume over the past few days has just been people who actually need bitcoins. (aka silk road buyers) We are doomed to go back down this weekend.
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October 12, 2012, 01:39:37 AM
 #116

Cash waiting on standby  Grin

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October 25, 2012, 09:04:07 PM
 #117

under green line is very strong, coming from2 dollar bottom touching 5.2USD on beginning of june
upper green line coming from 31USD top (only 2 time touched)
looks like were on a desicion point... will it crash painfully or will it continue regular growth and skyrocket?

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October 26, 2012, 05:14:33 AM
 #118

Over sold? Is now the time to buy?


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October 26, 2012, 08:34:29 AM
 #119

I think one or the other will happen. (Both are from just from my gut.)  Grin

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October 26, 2012, 11:06:22 AM
 #120

Over sold? Is now the time to buy?
yes is over sold and can stay like that 1 weeks 2 weeks or even more is time to buy when its about to leave the over sold condition

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