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Author Topic: [SHARE] Your Personal Analysis (only post with pictures)  (Read 18717 times)
cloon
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February 14, 2013, 03:24:57 PM
 #161

as we know we drove the rize up til touching the upper green line of my last post.
so we all feel that a correction would be healthy for the market, and I think this shost spike last night doesnt count as correction as you see in the following picture:



1.we have enought momentum, span is getting smaller.
2.the MACD wil likely go down to ~0.5 if not below. the time span of the green bars of the macd who are negative got longer last 3 times so it could this time lenghten too.
3.on the rsi we see that we will likely stay between 50 and 70 for a few days.
4.the lines on the cci are not enough tested, so i dont want to relay on it...

this is the case if we make a minor correction and continue rise,
but if we brake the diagonal in the momentum, the under diagonal in the macd and the line in rsi I think we'll see a major correction...

the longer it goes up and makes minor corrections the more likely it is that the next correction is a major one.
so i sold a few coins...

where do you expect the top?


donations to 13zWUMSHA7AzGjqWmJNhJLYZxHmjNPKduY
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March 09, 2013, 06:15:34 PM
 #162

funny to see those top calls from weeks ago..

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March 09, 2013, 06:27:42 PM
 #163

World domination by 2020

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March 09, 2013, 08:23:49 PM
 #164



The funny part about charts: you can draw anything you like. Let's hit $30 again  Tongue

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March 10, 2013, 05:14:21 AM
 #165

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April 11, 2013, 11:25:06 AM
 #166

Hi,

I like to request to be added to the whitelist.
I'm working with bitcoins some time now, also mining a bit, waiting for my BFL :-( and I like to do some technical chart posting in this forum list here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=82626.160

Not quite sure wich groups I can post in except this one :-) So I'll post my analysis in here for now, hope that is ok.
So if some one coud please cut& past this chart in there for the time being :-)



And annother one but that one is outdated:


Looking forward to be white listed :-D


JWR

pasted from the newbies section 
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April 11, 2013, 11:25:24 AM
 #167


more or less retired.
Spekulatius
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July 15, 2013, 10:00:45 PM
 #168

^^^WOW, this picture is amazing;) Im sure we'll see it again this year!

Now for some traditional chart (which have become increasingly few in this forum):



This could of course break out to the upside as well, triggering another rally if the price can hold above the resistance for 2 or 3 days but I think chances are higher that we go down once more to test the bottom, looking at the low volume in outbreak attempts, the percived timidity of the crowd, while some big buyers almost trade by themselves, RSI being overbought on so many scales and a much too fast recovery from recent lows to be sustainable (if you ask me). Add to that the similarity with the last chart and you got a case. What do you all think? Be warned, that we will see in a couple of days so choose your predictions wisely Wink



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July 16, 2013, 05:55:04 PM
 #169



Spekulatius
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July 24, 2013, 07:54:07 PM
 #170

Concluding the triangle, either breaking 100 and start a rally for new price discovery, leaving the bubble burst behind us or breaking 88 and going down to knock on 70.

Both ways should be taken quickly once triggered.

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August 04, 2013, 10:11:04 PM
 #171

BEARISH WEDGE FORMING!


original idea by "bitpay" from https://www.tradingview.com/v/K8hG1auJ/

How do those rectangles compare?
If this wedge breaks, we are going DOWN to pursue the full emotion cycle, culminating in capitulation.

IF on the other hand, we break upwards, another rally can ensue.


To anybody that is interested in some quality charting tools and improvement on TA knowledge. I warmly recommend tradingview.com, Check it out!
Spekulatius
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October 01, 2013, 02:57:50 AM
 #172



It looks as if we are about to break out this BIG triangle (thx to Frozenlock for pointing it out to me). Its either going up if we go above 150$ or back to 100$ if we break below 136$. As you can see the current little triangle is just part of the bigger one that formed after the bubble burst. The actual count of waves is controversial, as this could either be interpreted as an ascending waves series (1-5) or retracting waves (A-C or A-E). Anyway, Elliot waves aside, the chart lines provide the best indication which way we are heading IMO. If its down, 100 will provide a good resistance that will be hard to crack for technical and psychological reasons. Double digits may shortly be visited but are unlikely to drag through the winter.
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October 01, 2013, 03:53:29 AM
 #173

It looks as if we are about to break out this BIG triangle (thx to Frozenlock for pointing it out to me). Its either going up if we go above 150$ or back to 100$ if we break below 136$. As you can see the current little triangle is just part of the bigger one that formed after the bubble burst. The actual count of waves is controversial, as this could either be interpreted as an ascending waves series (1-5) or retracting waves (A-C or A-E). Anyway, Elliot waves aside, the chart lines provide the best indication which way we are heading IMO. If its down, 100 will provide a good resistance that will be hard to crack for technical and psychological reasons. Double digits may shortly be visited but are unlikely to drag through the winter.
It seems you are just arbitrarily drawing that purple line.  What made you connect 170 to our 149 vs some other level? How do you know that the resistance in our current rally isn't actually another sub-line, like the thin green line, and then the purple line would be an additional stronger resistance above that?
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October 01, 2013, 04:26:08 AM
 #174

It seems you are just arbitrarily drawing that purple line.

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October 01, 2013, 10:20:10 AM
 #175

Haha that freefalling bears dropping bitcoins is fantastic !!!!  Cheesy

Heres the channel I'm looking at.


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October 01, 2013, 12:08:43 PM
 #176

It looks as if we are about to break out this BIG triangle (thx to Frozenlock for pointing it out to me). Its either going up if we go above 150$ or back to 100$ if we break below 136$. As you can see the current little triangle is just part of the bigger one that formed after the bubble burst. The actual count of waves is controversial, as this could either be interpreted as an ascending waves series (1-5) or retracting waves (A-C or A-E). Anyway, Elliot waves aside, the chart lines provide the best indication which way we are heading IMO. If its down, 100 will provide a good resistance that will be hard to crack for technical and psychological reasons. Double digits may shortly be visited but are unlikely to drag through the winter.
It seems you are just arbitrarily drawing that purple line.  What made you connect 170 to our 149 vs some other level? How do you know that the resistance in our current rally isn't actually another sub-line, like the thin green line, and then the purple line would be an additional stronger resistance above that?

one can be sceptical about TA in general, or just the quality of TA on this forum, but one should at least know the basics before condeming someone's aproach (not so much aimed at you, but notme's flippant remark below)

anyway, spekulatius can correct me here, but it looks like he drew the support/resistance lines through the extrema of the candles. in this type of TA the belief is that, the more "points of contact" you have, the higher is the validity of that trend line.

zooming in, with a bit of good will (he used a pretty thick line Tongue) the purple line has 5 points of contact, which would be rather good.

disclaimer: I'm not the biggest fan of TA based on candle extrma, but I'm not completely dismissing it either.

EDIT: re: your question why there isn't another line above or below. Some people using a similar TA do exactly that: drawing parallel lines below and above the main trendline, assuming that if the trend line is broken, the next parallel will be the "next level of support/resistance"

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Spekulatius
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October 01, 2013, 03:36:29 PM
 #177

It looks as if we are about to break out this BIG triangle (thx to Frozenlock for pointing it out to me). Its either going up if we go above 150$ or back to 100$ if we break below 136$. As you can see the current little triangle is just part of the bigger one that formed after the bubble burst. The actual count of waves is controversial, as this could either be interpreted as an ascending waves series (1-5) or retracting waves (A-C or A-E). Anyway, Elliot waves aside, the chart lines provide the best indication which way we are heading IMO. If its down, 100 will provide a good resistance that will be hard to crack for technical and psychological reasons. Double digits may shortly be visited but are unlikely to drag through the winter.
It seems you are just arbitrarily drawing that purple line.  

To be honest, this BIG triangle is only just beginning to form with two points of contact at each trend line (Im counting A, B and C as one contact each). So you could argue that the outcome of this triangle is uncertain. I agree, we dont know how long price will stay inside it but according to TA common practice its a valid construct.

What made you connect 170 to our 149 vs some other level?

To draw triangles in general, you try to connect tops and bottoms. The only other top to connect with our current top would be 266$ but it doesnt make sense to me because atm, because the resulting triangle would be to unlikely to find continuation in time.

How do you know that the resistance in our current rally isn't actually another sub-line, like the thin green line, and then the purple line would be an additional stronger resistance above that?

Not sure what you mean by that. I guess I understand you in that the purple line could very well become invalidated by a break through soon, giving way to another, even higher resistance that would emerge somewhere above. Thats indeed a possibility but so far the purple line is a valid resistance that borders this chart formation of an ascending triangle. It has not been invalidated by breakthroughs of its outer borders, thats why I drew them where I did.
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October 01, 2013, 04:29:16 PM
 #178

But the 5 points are all from our recent penant/triangle in the past two months, except the one point where it began in April. Its not like there's a point in April, a point in May, a point in July, and then a point in august. All these 4 points youre using to draw a line could actually be part of a different line not connected to the point in april. They are so recent.
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October 01, 2013, 05:06:34 PM
 #179

maybe. but you asked "are they completely arbitrary", and they're not.

doesn't mean TA based on trendlines is really accurate. personally, i think trends play an important role, but "support" and "resistance" is overrated (in the sense that they don't specify an exact value at which price will bounce off, but instead specify a price region that is of interest perhaps)


Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I can highly recommend Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, extremely fast, and one of the safest ways to store and use your bitcoins.
Executables are available on the Electrum homepage, so you can get a Bitcoin wallet up and running on your own computer in a few minutes.
Spekulatius
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October 01, 2013, 06:11:05 PM
 #180

But the 5 points are all from our recent penant/triangle in the past two months, except the one point where it began in April. Its not like there's a point in April, a point in May, a point in July, and then a point in august. All these 4 points youre using to draw a line could actually be part of a different line not connected to the point in april. They are so recent.

Not sure what you mean. Two points in April (A and the one without a name), B is in July, C is in August/September. But in fact in doesnt really matter how far back they are, as long as they are valid trendlines (not invalidated by break outs).

Could you draw a chart yourself to illustrate your point?
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