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Author Topic: A day in the life of a pirate.  (Read 28250 times)
imsaguy
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May 23, 2012, 03:24:14 PM
 #121

HFT isn't out of realm
but front-running with "inside information" is highly doubtful at best

If you back and look at what he has posted it is consistent with HFT.  

Without the right information things will go awry fast.

You're doing this instead of your algebra homework, aren't you?  Once you hit high school, those grades matter to universities.

Since when do garbage collection specialists need a college degree?

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May 23, 2012, 03:47:47 PM
 #122

Okay, not defending pirates business here, as I think its a ponzi, but:

1. Everyone withdrawing shows nothing. If I was running a legitimate business investing peoples money in wind turbines (serious pooling benefits) then I would not be able to pay out a dime or much anyway (edit: During a bank run).

... then again if I was doing that I would just show documents for turbine ownership.

2. The reason you invest other peoples money and not just your own is so you can scale up. I may only have a small amount, say 5K$, and even if I get the full return for that, taking 1-10% of other peoples return while investing 50-500K$ more still nets me extra income.

As others said it is also safer for me to "gamble" with other peoples money.

The benefit for my clients is that I would have the contacts, pooling benefits and save them time investing themselves.

So yeah pirate is likely running a ponzi, but the above are not suspicious signs.

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May 23, 2012, 03:53:56 PM
 #123

Okay, not defending pirates business here, as I think its a ponzi, but:

1. Everyone withdrawing shows nothing. If I was running a legitimate business investing peoples money in wind turbines (serious pooling benefits) then I would not be able to pay out a dime or much anyway (edit: During a bank run).

... then again if I was doing that I would just show documents for turbine ownership.

2. The reason you invest other peoples money and not just your own is so you can scale up. I may only have a small amount, say 5K$, and even if I get the full return for that, taking 1-10% of other peoples return while investing 50-500K$ more still nets me extra income.

As others said it is also safer for me to "gamble" with other peoples money.

The benefit for my clients is that I would have the contacts, pooling benefits and save them time investing themselves.

So yeah pirate is likely running a ponzi, but the above are not suspicious signs.

Why do you think its a ponzi?

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May 23, 2012, 04:09:44 PM
 #124

Good luck pirateat40 and thanks for all you do.

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May 23, 2012, 04:36:49 PM
 #125

Okay, not defending pirates business here, as I think its a ponzi, but:

1. Everyone withdrawing shows nothing. If I was running a legitimate business investing peoples money in wind turbines (serious pooling benefits) then I would not be able to pay out a dime or much anyway (edit: During a bank run).

... then again if I was doing that I would just show documents for turbine ownership.

2. The reason you invest other peoples money and not just your own is so you can scale up. I may only have a small amount, say 5K$, and even if I get the full return for that, taking 1-10% of other peoples return while investing 50-500K$ more still nets me extra income.

As others said it is also safer for me to "gamble" with other peoples money.

The benefit for my clients is that I would have the contacts, pooling benefits and save them time investing themselves.

So yeah pirate is likely running a ponzi, but the above are not suspicious signs.

actually he's probably not running a ponzi.   what he is likely doing is very profitable. in this scam traders get burned.  his clients, his investors profit from that.  they do not get burned.  clients could get hurt if he is levered up ("scale up") with money he has borrowed from when his strategy eventually fails.  leverage works both ways.  risk/reward multiplier.   

the definition of ponzi has broadened but generally most say it is the type of scam that requires more new suckers coming in to pay off the old suckers.  it blows up when there aren't enough new suckers.  sometimes people misapply the word ponzi to any type of business fraud that happens to fail.  there's more ways to steal from people than simply running a ponzi scam.

his scam is more like penny shaving or salami slicing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_slicing

nothing new under the sun.  as old as time. 

the type of scam we see before us now ends when whatever market advantage he is exploiting disappears.  he has said that he has an advantage simply because he is a good trader.  the thing is there are a lot of smart talented traders how there.   even he found something they missed they will surely will find the same market inefficiency with haste.  they should have found it long before now once they exploit it his strategy the game is over.  there are many sharks out there and somehow he has managed to evade them for an improbable amount of time.   risk adjusted performance is way out there in the tail.  beyond six standard deviations. 

abnormal and extraordinary performance like this tell us that something is rotten in Denmark.  explanations like market manipulation, fraud, insider trading, and exchange collusion are no longer implausible.  they are the only theories that make sense.  Occam's Razor. 

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May 23, 2012, 04:37:44 PM
 #126

Stability is NOT good

Since there is a limited number of bitcoins, if more people start using and buying them the price must rise.

If the price stay the same then it means that btc adoption is a bit slow. Wich is not a problem now, after all we still lack infrastructure, easier clients etcetc. But in the future if there will be more ppl using btc then the price must rise.
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May 23, 2012, 04:41:23 PM
 #127

Stability is NOT good

Since there is a limited number of bitcoins, if more people start using and buying them the price must rise.

If the price stay the same then it means that btc adoption is a bit slow. Wich is not a problem now, after all we still lack infrastructure, easier clients etcetc. But in the future if there will be more ppl using btc then the price must rise.
Stability is good if the price rise is extremely gradual. Bitcoin's deflation mechanism takes literally a century to play itself out.

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May 23, 2012, 04:43:53 PM
 #128

Won't it go on forever if the amount of humans (or other future full members of our society) keeps growing?

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May 23, 2012, 04:44:02 PM
 #129

Quote
actually he's probably not running a ponzi.   what he is likely doing is very profitable. in this scam traders get burned.  his clients, his investors profit from that.  they do not get burned.  clients could get hurt if he is levered up ("scale up") with money he has borrowed from when his strategy eventually fails.  leverage works both ways.  risk/reward multiplier.

You know this sounds like something familiar. Can't quite figure it.

Oh, a really good Broker on Wall Street. (Pirate = EF Hutton)

Don't give him ideas, he'll start charging commissions.

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May 23, 2012, 04:45:07 PM
 #130

Won't it go on forever if the amount of humans (or other future full members of our society) keeps growing?
Yes, I was only specifically referring to the block reward halving.

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May 23, 2012, 04:46:25 PM
 #131

actually he's probably not running a ponzi.   what he is likely doing is very profitable. in this scam traders get burned.  his clients, his investors profit from that.  they do not get burned.  clients could get hurt if he is levered up ("scale up") with money he has borrowed from when his strategy eventually fails.  leverage works both ways.  risk/reward multiplier.   

the definition of ponzi has broadened but generally most say it is the type of scam that requires more new suckers coming in to pay off the old suckers.  it blows up when there aren't enough new suckers.  sometimes people misapply the word ponzi to any type of business fraud that happens to fail.  there's more ways to steal from people than simply running a ponzi scam.

his scam is more like penny shaving or salami slicing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_slicing

nothing new under the sun.  as old as time. 

the type of scam we see before us now ends when whatever market advantage he is exploiting disappears.  he has said that he has an advantage simply because he is a good trader.  the thing is there are a lot of smart talented traders how there.   even he found something they missed they will surely will find the same market inefficiency with haste.  they should have found it long before now once they exploit it his strategy the game is over.  there are many sharks out there and somehow he has managed to evade them for an improbable amount of time.   risk adjusted performance is way out there in the tail.  beyond six standard deviations. 

abnormal and extraordinary performance like this tell us that something is rotten in Denmark.  explanations like market manipulation, fraud, insider trading, and exchange collusion are no longer implausible.  they are the only theories that make sense.  Occam's Razor. 

All these attacks you talk about would require that Pirate has inside information from MtGox/Bitcoinica or some other source. Do you have anything to show that this is the case?
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May 23, 2012, 04:51:58 PM
 #132

Stability is NOT good

Since there is a limited number of bitcoins, if more people start using and buying them the price must rise.

If the price stay the same then it means that btc adoption is a bit slow. Wich is not a problem now, after all we still lack infrastructure, easier clients etcetc. But in the future if there will be more ppl using btc then the price must rise.


agree with you.   more people using them creates more demand which increases price. 

you can technical and apply MV=PQ

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money

the end result is the same. the price of bitcoin should be increasing.  That's a good thing for the community and from those holding it as a store of value.   

All of us, this entire community, are losing from this.

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May 23, 2012, 04:52:52 PM
 #133

stuff
Have you finished playing Wikipedia Accountant/Lawyer?

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May 23, 2012, 05:05:36 PM
 #134

Stability is NOT good

Since there is a limited number of bitcoins, if more people start using and buying them the price must rise.

If the price stay the same then it means that btc adoption is a bit slow. Wich is not a problem now, after all we still lack infrastructure, easier clients etcetc. But in the future if there will be more ppl using btc then the price must rise.
Stability is good if the price rise is extremely gradual. Bitcoin's deflation mechanism takes literally a century to play itself out.
A century if the user base does not increase

But since user base is very small, it can quickly increase bringing great price rise
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May 23, 2012, 05:25:24 PM
 #135

Stability is NOT good

Since there is a limited number of bitcoins, if more people start using and buying them the price must rise.

If the price stay the same then it means that btc adoption is a bit slow. Wich is not a problem now, after all we still lack infrastructure, easier clients etcetc. But in the future if there will be more ppl using btc then the price must rise.


agree with you.   more people using them creates more demand which increases price. 

you can technical and apply MV=PQ

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money

the end result is the same. the price of bitcoin should be increasing.  That's a good thing for the community and from those holding it as a store of value.   

All of us, this entire community, are losing from this.



By your formula, the price only has to increase if velocity (V) remains constant... Take a look at this: http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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May 23, 2012, 05:38:02 PM
 #136

actually he's probably not running a ponzi.   what he is likely doing is very profitable. in this scam traders get burned.  his clients, his investors profit from that.  they do not get burned.  clients could get hurt if he is levered up ("scale up") with money he has borrowed from when his strategy eventually fails.  leverage works both ways.  risk/reward multiplier.   

the definition of ponzi has broadened but generally most say it is the type of scam that requires more new suckers coming in to pay off the old suckers.  it blows up when there aren't enough new suckers.  sometimes people misapply the word ponzi to any type of business fraud that happens to fail.  there's more ways to steal from people than simply running a ponzi scam.

his scam is more like penny shaving or salami slicing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_slicing

nothing new under the sun.  as old as time. 

the type of scam we see before us now ends when whatever market advantage he is exploiting disappears.  he has said that he has an advantage simply because he is a good trader.  the thing is there are a lot of smart talented traders how there.   even he found something they missed they will surely will find the same market inefficiency with haste.  they should have found it long before now once they exploit it his strategy the game is over.  there are many sharks out there and somehow he has managed to evade them for an improbable amount of time.   risk adjusted performance is way out there in the tail.  beyond six standard deviations. 

abnormal and extraordinary performance like this tell us that something is rotten in Denmark.  explanations like market manipulation, fraud, insider trading, and exchange collusion are no longer implausible.  they are the only theories that make sense.  Occam's Razor. 

All these attacks you talk about would require that Pirate has inside information from MtGox/Bitcoinica or some other source. Do you have anything to show that this is the case?

Lack of transparency is a big part of the problem.  Without transparency people can get away with scams for a long time  We need full and accurate reporting from the exchange where this trading is occurring.  We don't have that.  

Exchanges we have in the United States such as NASDAQ and the NYSE are public institutions that are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.  We can read public statements that they are required to file.  We can request irregular activity be investigated.

The exchanges themselves are accountable to the public

http://ir.nasdaq.com/history.cfm
http://ir.nasdaqomx.com/ourFinancial.cfm

A timely example is the recent IPO of Facebook which has raised serious concerns of "securities fraud."  FINRA and the SEC are investigating allegations that Morgan Stanley gave preferential treatment to insiders over the public.  In the Facebook case they had enough circumstantial evidence to launch a full investigation.   The SEC is on that case now.  The SEC has strong and extensive powers to investigate securities fraud.  They can enforce severe civil and criminal penalties.  In addition to that numerous lawsuits have been filed.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0523-facebook-regrets-2-20120523,0,2596022.story


In this situation we  have more than enough evidence documented on forum threads by Pirate himself and others  to meet the "probable cause" standard sufficient to trigger a thorough investigation.  There are also the documents he provided to his investors.   If you study this case and study the Facebook case there is actually more irregular activity to cause concern in this case than the Facebook case.  

What we need now is accurate and full reporting from the exchange that controls ~ 80% of the market.  Mt. Gox has not provided that information thus far.   Mt. Gox is not a transparent exchange like the NASDAQ and the NYSE.  They are secretive and opaque.  Their reputation is still sullied from the June 2011 hacking incident.  They are not known for openness and candor.

We should lobby the SESC (Securities Exchange Surveillance Commission) to get involved.  The SESC is located in Japan and regulates Mt. Gox.  The SESC is similar to the Securities and Exchange Commision (SEC) in the USA.   The SESC can begin an investigation now into market manipulation with the information we have now.  The SESC could can enforce full transparency upon Mt. Gox through more regulation.  Contact the SESC at the link below.

http://www.fsa.go.jp/sesc/english/index.htm





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May 23, 2012, 05:44:30 PM
 #137

Won't it go on forever if the amount of humans (or other future full members of our society) keeps growing?

No.  Bitcoins are only divisible to 8 decimals.  At some point, you can no longer split them without changing the rules of bitcoin.

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May 23, 2012, 05:47:18 PM
 #138

I see that as a sure shot, like that will definitely happen if the value rises enough to warrant it. I would take the bet but I'm afraid I won't live long enough Sad

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May 23, 2012, 05:52:46 PM
 #139

Stability is NOT good

Since there is a limited number of bitcoins, if more people start using and buying them the price must rise.

If the price stay the same then it means that btc adoption is a bit slow. Wich is not a problem now, after all we still lack infrastructure, easier clients etcetc. But in the future if there will be more ppl using btc then the price must rise.


agree with you.   more people using them creates more demand which increases price. 

you can technical and apply MV=PQ

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money

the end result is the same. the price of bitcoin should be increasing.  That's a good thing for the community and from those holding it as a store of value.   

All of us, this entire community, are losing from this.



By your formula, the price only has to increase if velocity (V) remains constant... Take a look at this: http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

Yeah, a saw that when bitcoinmedia ran a story on that not too long ago.  If you look at the graph it started to take off in May 2012.  But this invariable trading pattern has been going for much longer, when transaction history was stable.  The price hasn't changed from then to now.

So the problem here is how do you measure velocity?  You and I could set up bitcoin clients to trade back and forth very rapidly all the time.  The increased network transaction rate we produced wouldn't signify an increase in velocity because it doesn't represent increased economic activity.   Somebody could be spamming transactions just like people are e-mails.

Definitions of velocity can vary between different schools of thought.  I'm glad you brought this up.  We need to have a reliable measure of V.   I think the transaction chart from the block chain is the place to start but we need someway to filter out significant transactions from spam transactions and other transactions that are just noise.   Sounds like a potential block chain project.
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May 23, 2012, 06:03:35 PM
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Yeah, a saw that when bitcoinmedia ran a story on that not too long ago.  If you look at the graph it started to take off in May 2012.  But this invariable trading pattern has been going for much longer, when transaction history was stable.  The price hasn't changed from then to now.

So the problem here is how do you measure velocity?  You and I could set up bitcoin clients to trade back and forth very rapidly all the time.  The increased network transaction rate we produced wouldn't signify an increase in velocity because it doesn't represent increased economic activity.   Somebody could be spamming transactions just like people are e-mails.

Definitions of velocity can vary between different schools of thought.  I'm glad you brought this up.  We need to have a reliable measure of V.   I think the transaction chart from the block chain is the place to start but we need someway to filter out significant transactions from spam transactions and other transactions that are just noise.   Sounds like a potential block chain project.

I believe V can't be accurately measured.  Bitcoin days destroyed is the best metric I've seen for tracking how long funds sit idle, but it's still not really V.  As for spamming, it's much more expensive to spam transactions than emails.  Unless your funds have sat for a few days, you'll need to pay a transaction fee to get it processed.  Also, like I mentioned in the $5 thread, it's only holding steady against the USD.  Measured against most other currencies, Bitcoin is trending up.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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