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Author Topic: A day in the life of a pirate.  (Read 28276 times)
drakahn
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May 24, 2012, 07:24:34 AM
 #201

lol, someone in a time machine going somewhere else than 2009 with future mining technology and constantly keeping just under most users radar (zomg, mysteryminer is a time travelling pirate manipulator?)

Well, I agree that that would be logical, but not if you're "a pirate 200 years late". In 2009, opprtunities to make people walk the plank and say things like "Argh! Ye lubber etc" were severely limited.

I guess "somewhere else than 2009" did seem a bit exclusive, but not really what i meant, just that the bitcoin profits wouldn't come from piracy, chances are he's running the same program with pirate booty, the original guy fawkes was him in a v for vendetta mask(just to claim 'first') and he was there the night satoshi drowned

While we're brainstorming here, drakahn, and still keeping in mind Occam's razor, he could have invested in steam devices with his pirate booty, and developed the first difference engine rather early. From there it's only a matter of years before he introduces coal-coin mining on distributed steam powered difference engines and corners the market on cryptocurrency. Without the ability to reign in his expanding wealth, he soon controls the world.

You really want to contribute coins to Pirate's quest for world domination?

more than ev'yarrgh

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Vladimir
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May 24, 2012, 08:02:44 AM
 #202

Vlad brought up Occam's Razor which most take to mean: "other things being equal, a simpler explanation is better than a more complex one."

I think the most likely and simplest explanation, given pirate's know proclivities, is that he has a time machine, goes back in time to the 18th Century and captains a privateer. He needs investor money not just to to enable the purchase and maintenance of the privateer and the hideous expense of time travel, but also when he and his crew face life and death every day he'll want to have been prepared as much as possible, using as much money as he could.

However, he can afford to repay at such a high interest rate because he can attack the same Spanish Galleons again and again, and sell the same gold over and over. Such is the beauty of time travel.

I think others have brought up similar reasons for the necessity of investors when the profits are so large; I think mine is the simplest and most realistic by far.


Now this all suddenly makes a lot of sense!

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farfiman
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May 24, 2012, 09:01:03 AM
 #203

Regular bitcoin interest rates in the lending sub forums are 10-15% a MONTH. This is because of bitcoins unknown future.

Id say its primarily because of the huge risk for the borrower to get scammed and never see his coins back.

You mean the lender....

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May 24, 2012, 10:01:29 AM
 #204

I do a little lending, and selling.  Most of the last six months I have been making 10% to 15% per month.  My borrowers have been willing counter-parties and buyers similarly willing to pay (sometimes) $1/BTC above market rates.  Why, because there are other fees/costs that make this affordable.

I must be doing something right because demand has remained strong and my rate of defaults is quite low.  I even provide an on-call deposit service, much smaller than Pirate, and paying much lower rates, and you could say my guarantee to repay is worthless too if you wanted.

If you think the interest rates are wrong, I expect you have never lived in a high inflation or volatile economy, and are just very limited in life experience.  I still remember the days (in an OECD country) offering 22% deposit rates.

do you see something like a lending bubble, have the rates increased since pirate started his business?

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May 24, 2012, 10:07:43 AM
 #205

how to mess with bitcoin if you are say, a bank consortium:

1. amass a large amount of coins (do it cheap by means of a ponzi scheme)
2. get control over a large amount of hashing power (pay more than average pool)
3. screw bitcoin

I am not saying pirate is doing this but I would not know the difference.


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drakahn
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May 24, 2012, 10:11:00 AM
 #206

how to mess with bitcoin if you are say, a bank consortium:

1. amass a large amount of coins (do it cheap by means of a ponzi scheme)
2. get control over a large amount of hashing power (pay more than average pool)
3. screw bitcoin

I am not saying pirate is doing this but I would not know the difference.



the exact opposite could also be true

how to massively support bitcoin if you are say, someone who uses bitcoin.

1. amass a large amount of coins because coins rock
2. get control over a large amount of hashing power to protect the network
3. yay bitcoin

I am not saying pirate is doing this but I would not know the difference.

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May 24, 2012, 10:35:38 AM
 #207

both have in common that it undermines decentralization either way  Undecided

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May 24, 2012, 12:50:30 PM
 #208

Occam's Razor: The simplest explanation to me is that he is running some kind of Bitcoin a payment processing service. He might be charging the merchant 1.5% per transaction (half of Visa/MC), and his service includes instant conversion to fiat. Based on the way he operates, he needs to hold large buffers of confrimed coins in order to accomplish this. He has no idea and doesnt care if if the price of Bitcoins is going up or down tomorrow or even over the next 6 blocks. To hedge for this uncertainty he borrows other people's Bitcoins at a weekly rate that pays for itself after the coins have churned through about 10 payments.

There are a couple more I can think of that does not involve scams.

Oh, a bitcoin payment processing service with such huge volume but nobody has heard of it? LOL!

Occam's Razor: ponzi scam.

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May 24, 2012, 12:53:29 PM
 #209

And the obvious purpose of him starting this thread was just to suck in more bag-holders until he's ready to cash out.

Not enough technical-security skills to steal bitcoins by hacking. But certainly good social engineering.

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May 24, 2012, 02:47:22 PM
 #210


FredericBastiat
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May 24, 2012, 06:23:50 PM
 #211

Let's assume a few things here:

<assumptions>
1) It's not a ponzi (or a proxy to a ponzi). The definition of which is a little tenuous since if you say you're running a ponzi, and you notify all of your "investors" that that's what you're doing, then are you actually a ponzi? <sarcasm> If the government says it's a ponzi, then it must be a ponzi</sarcasm>. Don't believe everything you hear, just follow the money or the deal.

At the moment we know little of Pirate's business plan, and if we knew more, and there were more competitors, then the interest rates would likely drop and likely without an additional decrease in risk exposure. That being the case, I'd just as soon he keep the secret. In fact, even if Pirate were to tell me right now, not only would I keep the secret, I probably wouldn't even try to compete with him, since I value my time differently than he does (or anybody else for that matter). It would have to be really really simple to get my attention and deal with all of the FUD that's spewed around here.

2) It's not drugs (or a proxy to drugs). I assume that would be both the legal and illegal kind. However, if it includes the "illegal" kind, that's just a matter of jurisdictional geography and you're legal again. Now I'm just rambling on, but whatever.

3) It's not insider currency exchange knowledge (or a proxy to insiders). Given the lack of transparency of the exchanges due to the psuedo-anonymous nature of bitcoin and the current lack of much regulation, this is possible. I'm sure others could address this issue better than I, so I'll leave it to them to work the numbers. Notwithstanding, I could really care less (nobody forced you to trade USD/BTC). Besides, if our benevolent Pirate "manipulator" can maintain some degree of stability (which we've had a little more of lately; correlation perhaps?), and make some money on the side, then more power to him. I value stability more than speculation anyway. Given his price-spike comment, so does he.

And even if stability isn't the desired side effect, and controlled volatility is (or some kind of bid-ask sniping, arbitrage, or algorithmic HFTs), then speculators can continue day-trading the market by predicting trends. Either way, most exchanges don't promise transparency anyway (maybe none?). If that's what you want, then make a better exchange (perhaps an OSS exchange) and convince people to join you. That way you could get transparency and decentralization in one fell swoop, yayyy!! Whatever floats yer boat I guess.
</assumptions>

Now that I've got all that out of the way, that narrows the playing field significantly. Nevertheless, I personally know of at least a half-dozen ways to make the kind of returns Pirate does, and they're relatively simple too (I'm busy and lazy), and I only spent about a week or two thinking about it (surfing the net helps). I however will not enumerate nor describe them here, since by divulging, it would likely make it more difficult for me to try them myself should I be so inclined. In any case, I'm sure if any of you had half a brain (an imagination helps), you could probably come up with a similar subset, and then some, given the nature of the financial "black box" Pirate operates within.

The only unknown I can't put a finger on is why use bitcoin when for the most part you can use fiat? To that, I can only venture to guess that bitcoin transactions are nearly frictionless (borderless) in the sense that there is less regulation, more anonymity, fewer adjudicated encumbrances leading to cheaper insurance costs -lowering operational overhead-, limited or advantaged market "commodity/currency" exposure, diminished creditor recourse (both good and bad), and perhaps a great disdain for government largesse and general interference. Besides, promoting bitcoin isn't such a bad idea anyway, right? That being the case, and a little bit of altruism (karma whore?), it's not impossible to imagine why Pirate might part with as much bitcoin as he does when he could likely keep more of it to himself. Be glad you're on the money train, and if you're not, stop the hating/FUDding/whining, or use pass-thrus. We're all "adults" here right?

All you should be concerned about is the "promise" and any nuanced contractual details.

On a side note: thanks Pirate for your patience and professionality. Seemingly a rare trait around here.

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Vladimir
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May 24, 2012, 09:02:27 PM
 #212

I personally know of at least a half-dozen ways to make the kind of returns Pirate does, and they're relatively simple too (I'm busy and lazy), and I only spent about a week or two thinking about it (surfing the net helps).

Oh really? You do know how to make 6000% annual return! Cool beans! I bet you then could get Warren Buffet out of biz by the end of 2013 (if only you were not that lazy, of course).

I wish I was half that smart.

P.S. Or is it by any chance you just have no idea how to calculate compound interest?


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May 24, 2012, 09:09:25 PM
 #213

My thought exactly.

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May 24, 2012, 09:13:53 PM
 #214

Oh, and by the way - this should work with tens of thousands of BTC over months consistently, not a single transaction/deal once in a while that is especially profitable...

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May 24, 2012, 09:37:42 PM
 #215

P.S. Or is it by any chance you just have no idea how to calculate compound interest?

Even without compound interest, 7% a week is ~360% a year.

Nevertheless, I personally know of at least a half-dozen ways to make the kind of returns Pirate does, and they're relatively simple too (I'm busy and lazy), and I only spent about a week or two thinking about it (surfing the net helps).

If I had even one idea that can make 3.6x times my capital in a year, I sure as hell won't be too lazy to explore it. Let alone 33x if you consider compounding interest.

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May 24, 2012, 09:39:20 PM
 #216

P.S. Or is it by any chance you just have no idea how to calculate compound interest?

Even without compound interest, 7% a week is ~360% a year.

All the proof we need.

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May 24, 2012, 09:47:34 PM
 #217

I'm a lazy starfish, and I know where my talents are.  And while I know of ways to use bitcoin to make higher returns, that's simply not my best field of operation.  I'll stick to 200% to 300% per year.
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May 24, 2012, 10:11:41 PM
 #218

I'm a lazy starfish, and I know where my talents are.  And while I know of ways to use bitcoin to make higher returns, that's simply not my best field of operation.  I'll stick to 200% to 300% per year.

I am in complete agreeement with Patrick. The bitcoin lending scene is highly profitable.
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May 24, 2012, 10:14:17 PM
 #219

I'm curious who takes on BTC debt? Obviously Pirate does, but who else, and for what purposes?

I'm selling great Minion Games like The Manhattan Project, Kingdom of Solomon and Venture Forth at 4% off retail starting June 2012. PM me or go to my thread in the Marketplace if you're interested.

For Settlers/Dominion/Carcassone etc., I do email gift cards on Amazon for a 5% fee. PM if you're interested.
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May 24, 2012, 10:19:33 PM
 #220

I'm curious who takes on BTC debt? Obviously Pirate does, but who else, and for what purposes?

Mostly miners who have incomes denominated in bitcoin.
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