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Author Topic: A day in the life of a pirate.  (Read 28270 times)
wachtwoord
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June 21, 2012, 05:59:30 PM
 #341

P4Man wasn't implying Pirate is running a Ponzi, he was merely refuting the arguments given by ErebusBat with counter examples.

I'm not saying Pirate is running a Ponzi either. In fact, a large portion of my Bitcoin holdings a re on the line stating otherwise. However, I cannot be certain he isn't running a Ponzi scheme based on the information he has released. In the end it all boils done to trust and the risk/reward ratio.

This discussion is really sounding like a broken record though Wink

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P4man
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June 21, 2012, 06:04:08 PM
 #342

Not to be rude to a senior forum member, but.....

Just saying "I think he is running a ponzi because if I twist all of these statements around in this way then he *could* be doing it...."

Im not saying these are proof of pirate running a ponzi, but you were posting those reasons why you think its NOT a ponzi. At least let me show why none of those reasons have any value.  You might as well have listed "Pirate says its not a Ponzi".

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Also if I said limiting deposits I meant to say limiting DEPOSITORS.  And yes he is... I know of someone with a large amount of coin that has been looking for an invite, and yet more stories of people who have given out invites to people who have still not gotten in.

Like I said, Madoff did the EXACT same thing. You couldnt get in without "invite".
That he refuses to accept new depositors also makes complete sense, it makes life easier for him, but its not like his is limiting the inflow of coins, which is the only thing that matters for a ponzi.

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I am not defending pirate, what I am saying is that it is unfair to take things and twist them to how they are not to come up with some big conspiracy scheme.

There is nothing unfair about it.  Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Being able to generate to 3300 or whatever % interest per year on an arbitrary amount of money certainly qualifies as extraordinary in my book.  But if Pirate is legit, why would he even care, Im sure he would be getting a good laugh out of these threads.

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June 21, 2012, 06:18:57 PM
 #343

Which in your opinion is the proper level of interest for lending bitcoins?

Depends entirely on the risk. But thats not the point here. If pirate can consistently turn 10 BTC in to more than 330BTC per year, then why does he need to keep lending?  It would make sense in the beginning, but by now he should be filthy rich and sitting on a gigantic mountain of bitcoins and so youd expect him at the very least to decrease his debt and therefore lending costs, but he is only increasing it further.

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June 21, 2012, 06:22:49 PM
 #344

Which in your opinion is the proper level of interest for lending bitcoins?
Depends entirely on the risk. But thats not the point here. If pirate can consistently turn 10 BTC in to more than 330BTC per year, then why does he need to keep lending? 
My guess here would be that his customers need more than 330 BTC Wink
In other words: the demand for credit is probably growing.

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P4man
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June 21, 2012, 06:25:11 PM
 #345

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My guess here would be that his customers need more than 330 BTC Wink

Give us your best guess of how many BTC pirate currently owes.

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June 21, 2012, 06:29:34 PM
 #346

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My guess here would be that his customers need more than 330 BTC Wink

Give us your best guess of how many BTC pirate currently owes.
As a gentlemen I wont discuss how much money other people own.

Though, in the BS&T deposits, considering the transaction volume ever Monday when the interests are paid, my wild guess would be that there are 100-200k BTC.

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rjk
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June 21, 2012, 06:52:53 PM
 #347

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My guess here would be that his customers need more than 330 BTC Wink

Give us your best guess of how many BTC pirate currently owes.
As a gentlemen I wont discuss how much money other people own.

Though, in the BS&T deposits, considering the transaction volume ever Monday when the interests are paid, my wild guess would be that there are 100-200k BTC.

That's a smart correlation.

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P4man
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June 21, 2012, 07:12:20 PM
 #348

As a gentlemen I wont discuss how much money other people own.

Though, in the BS&T deposits, considering the transaction volume ever Monday when the interests are paid, my wild guess would be that there are 100-200k BTC.


I said owes. Not owns.
Lets assume your lowest number is correct. That means he would currently be paying over 20 million dollar per year in interests. Let that sink in for a moment.
Now I dont know about you, but if I had some  business model that was somehow that incredibly profitable, and yet I needed to loan even and ever more, Id talk to a bank or anyone willing to fund me at slightly less insane interest rates.

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June 21, 2012, 07:21:41 PM
 #349

[...] that has been looking for an invite, and yet more stories of people who have given out invites to people who have still not gotten in.

Invites are very apt for a Ponzi too in the beginning. You want to make sure that your friends and inner circle profit before they back out, right?

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wachtwoord
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June 21, 2012, 07:27:21 PM
 #350

As a gentlemen I wont discuss how much money other people own.

Though, in the BS&T deposits, considering the transaction volume ever Monday when the interests are paid, my wild guess would be that there are 100-200k BTC.


I said owes. Not owns.
Lets assume your lowest number is correct. That means he would currently be paying over 20 million dollar per year in interests. Let that sink in for a moment.
Now I dont know about you, but if I had some  business model that was somehow that incredibly profitable, and yet I needed to loan even and ever more, Id talk to a bank or anyone willing to fund me at slightly less insane interest rates.

In Bitcoins? Good luck finding a bank. Or in fiat? Volatility might take your entire profit. This way (if this is true of course) he makes less money but the income is far more certain.

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June 21, 2012, 07:28:01 PM
 #351

That's a smart correlation.
Not rally. Not everyone uses the automatic interest payments and the transaction volume sums up the payments and the change.
That's why I said "a wild guess".
But on the GLBSE's PPT bonds alone you have over 50k so I would say that there should be at least another 50k on top of it, outside GLBSE.

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piotr_n
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June 21, 2012, 07:33:37 PM
 #352

As a gentlemen I wont discuss how much money other people own.

Though, in the BS&T deposits, considering the transaction volume ever Monday when the interests are paid, my wild guess would be that there are 100-200k BTC.


I said owes. Not owns.
Lets assume your lowest number is correct. That means he would currently be paying over 20 million dollar per year in interests. Let that sink in for a moment.
Now I dont know about you, but if I had some  business model that was somehow that incredibly profitable, and yet I needed to loan even and ever more, Id talk to a bank or anyone willing to fund me at slightly less insane interest rates.
Sorry - English is not my native language Smiley

AFAIK, the business has been running sine November and the initial rates were lower.
Analyzing it in a few years span is purely theoreticall.
A ponzi or a legit - the interest rate that we are getting now is obviously temporary.
That's the economy: you need more credits - you rise interest rates. You don't need more credits or have a competition that takes your customers away - you lower the rates.
As one of the guys said: this may be just one in a life time chance, which wont last forever - so risk to pick it up or keep doubting... the choice is only yours.

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wachtwoord
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June 21, 2012, 07:37:29 PM
 #353

Interest rates were higher in November (3% per 3 days 3546% interest per year compounded) versus 7% per week now (3273% per year  compounded).

P4man
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June 21, 2012, 07:40:43 PM
 #354

AFAIK, the business has been running sine November and the initial rates were lower.
Analyzing it in a few years span is purely theoreticall.

So its been running for 8 months. Is analyzing over the next 6 month reasonable then? Because even if he stopped accepting funds all of a sudden, that would put the number at "only" $10M for the next 6 months.

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A ponzi or a legit - the interest rate that we are getting now is obviously temporary.

I heard that 8 months ago.

piotr_n
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June 21, 2012, 07:41:12 PM
 #355

Interest rates were higher in November (3% per 3 days 3546% interest per year compounded) versus 7% per week now (3273% per year  compounded).
Oh, ok - so another reason to assume that they will be going down in a future...

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coblee
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June 21, 2012, 07:42:37 PM
 #356

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My guess here would be that his customers need more than 330 BTC Wink

Give us your best guess of how many BTC pirate currently owes.
As a gentlemen I wont discuss how much money other people own.

Though, in the BS&T deposits, considering the transaction volume ever Monday when the interests are paid, my wild guess would be that there are 100-200k BTC.

That's a smart correlation.

It was a decent theory, but Monday transaction volumes are the lowest of each week:
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

piotr_n
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June 21, 2012, 07:43:36 PM
 #357

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A ponzi or a legit - the interest rate that we are getting now is obviously temporary.
I heard that 8 months ago.
Well, then all I can tell you, is that you should have invested your capital in BS&T 8 month ago, compound the interests and thus multiply the initial capital few times by now.
And then withdraw it all today - yet before the ponzi collapses Tongue

No risk - no gain. Suit yourself. Smiley

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June 22, 2012, 01:29:13 AM
 #358

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Why doesn't pirate try to hide is real identity?

Hm?
Why isnt he just revealing it?

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Why does he limit deposits?  

Does he really? There are a gazillion pass through bonds and other schemes that funnel money to Pirate. Ive not seen any one of those refusing new deposits. It doesnt look to me like he is reducing his holdings. BTW, Madoff also tried hard to give the impression of not wanting to accept everyone's money and making it look like a privilege.

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   He has Forex experience

Surely not as much Madoff.

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   At least some portion of his business requires locality and face-to-face type transactions

Thats what he says. If you were running a ponzi, it makes perfect sense to spread that kind of disinformation.

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   If he were really doing something massively illegal the US could, and would, come in and snatch him in a heartbeat

Took a while before they snatched Madoff. That said, Im not even sure if it would be illegal with bitcoins.

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   He is not alone in what he does, as a few others that he is aware of have also started similar operations

So he says. Ive yet to see anyone step forward and say they do the same independently . Most other high yielding investments seem to be all about funneling money to pirate.


P4man your arguments are like a broken record. If I were not so lazy I would copy paste a rebuttal from one of the previous threads. The facts speak for themselves now. BTCST has been operating for almost 8 months without a hitch. At what point will you admit that you are wrong? 12 months? 2 Years? Or Never?
RoloTonyBrownTown
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June 22, 2012, 01:54:43 AM
 #359

At what point will you admit that you are wrong? 12 months? 2 Years? Or Never?

I'm going with never.   But I'm also going to add a "who gives a crap what he thinks" into the mix.

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June 22, 2012, 05:41:06 AM
 #360

http://tmblr.co/ZMIp3vNthL_Q    Cheesy

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