★ NBA expert picks: New Season ★

[Xiaoxiao]

What is your current standing right now?

96-69-5 for about 25 units (i always post good odds and won some major ML's such as lakers v hou and ny v cleveland the 1st)  I've yet to take an odd lower than 1.6 this season.  I think it sugar coats one's record and not as profitable as finding gems that are good odds.

Took a beating this week, like many other statisticians handicappers and experts, but won a lot in personal parlays, which i didn't post.  Will be included in subscription though.   For example, today's game many "experts" and handicappers went 0-6... so very tough day and week for nba experts.

Anyway, researching tomorrows game right now.  Will be very busy tomorrow.  Regarding parlays, I am up about 40-50 units this year from combos/parlays... and record is probably 12-30... which is incredible for combo plays of avg odds of 9 to 1 or greater!

[aqua22]

New Orleans disappointed me today after I took them against your parlay pick , Had them on +9.5 and was pretty confident after the first few minutes/first quarter end, then they went to the drains. Should have followed your pick on GSW.

[Xiaoxiao]

BTW- a lot of you guys have been asking me about parlays and how you think they might not be profitable.  I disagree.  They are CERTAINLY profitable in the long run if done right.  It takes a lot of thinking, stats, and process of elimination.  By that I mean, you must be able assess you confidence level for your straight picks properly and then make plus EV (expected value) parlays based on that.  Another key thing to parlays is you have to know how to hedge (insurance) your less confident straight picks.

[kepo07]

waiting for your next pick

[arvindr]

waiting for your next pick

Not sure if they will come. I think he said that subscription begins on 5th, which is today.

[LitecoinBoss]

waiting for your next pick

Not sure if they will come. I think he said that subscription begins on 5th, which is today.

Guys, where should I place my bet if ever I want to play?

[Zebrasko]

Just got a unwarranted negative feedback it is getting removed as we speak.

Todays pick-

Cleveland Cavaliers v New York Knicks
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers -7 1.952 (-105) and 197.5 over
Port - 8
Gsw v no
206.5 over

I have read this thread from the start and maybe you are passionate, but you make the results a lot better, or less worse, than they really are. I have seen that behaviour a lot in this thread. Several times you showing positive results of bets you didn't place on the forum, or you telling afterwards that you forgot to place a pick that ended into a win.

Today you forgot to mention that the over bet on Golden state warriors was a lost.
Straight bets:
Cleveland Cavaliers -7  lost
Portland -8 lost
Golden state warriors o206.5 lost

0-3

The hedge bet. You changed your mind after reviewing some stats. I wonder why you didn’t reviewing the stats before you placed the original pick.
Cleveland Cavaliers over 197.5 hedged
Cleveland Cavaliers under 197.5 hedged

Result straight bets: Units lost 3 + the juice of the hedged bet.  

After a losing day you telling things like I was not at home, busy, on the phone, other handicappers lost too and so on, dozen of reasons. Your personal results you're telling looking good. I don’t say there aren't true, but it has nothing to do with the forum picks. The forum picks of November, which is the proof black in white, shows a pretty obvious -ev.

Normally someone starts to ask money after showing a profitable month, but that’s not what happening here. If this was my thread with my picks, I waited for the subs after showing one, two or even three months with decent results.

I have noticed in your message history that you asked for several loans, so there are a lot of times you are out of cash. Not only because you had not your password with you to access your bitcoins and need some bitcoin to make bets. I think the need for cash makes you decide to start the subscription so early and not after profitable ‘forum picks months’.

Maybe you overrate yourself or maybe you are new to betting and want to convince others that you're high experienced to collect subs. Maybe you are really as good as you say, but you need to prove it. No basketball pictures, personal results or screenshots of winning bets. Winning forum picks is what we like to see.

I understand that some people already subscribed and thus paid. In my opinion you subbed to soon to this picker. You need to wait for positive and long term proved results before putting your money into a picker. To those ask the money back before the subscription will start and decide at a later stage to subscribe or not. Tbh I'm afraid the money back will not happen. He lost his picks so is probably out of money.

The only thing you can do is to be very careful with the bets. He offered a 50% refund on losing months. Using high stakes with again a losing month, results in losing 50% of the subscription money plus the losing stakes. If the free picks ending today as planned keep us informed about the results you made with the given picks.

[Xiaoxiao]

Just got a unwarranted negative feedback it is getting removed as we speak.

Todays pick-

Cleveland Cavaliers v New York Knicks
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers -7 1.952 (-105) and 197.5 over
Port - 8
Gsw v no
206.5 over

I have read this thread from the start and maybe you are passionate, but you make the results a lot better, or less worse, than they really are. I have seen that behaviour a lot in this thread. Several times you showing positive results of bets you didn't place on the forum, or you telling afterwards that you forgot to place a pick that ended into a win.

Today you forgot to mention that the over bet on Golden state warriors was a lost.
Straight bets:
Cleveland Cavaliers -7  lost
Portland -8 lost
Golden state warriors o206.5 lost

0-3

The hedge bet. You changed your mind after reviewing some stats. I wonder why you didn’t reviewing the stats before you placed the original pick.
Cleveland Cavaliers over 197.5 hedged
Cleveland Cavaliers under 197.5 hedged

Result straight bets: Units lost 3 + the juice of the hedged bet.  

After a losing day you telling things like I was not at home, busy, on the phone, other handicappers lost too and so on, dozen of reasons. Your personal results you're telling looking good. I don’t say there aren't true, but it has nothing to do with the forum picks. The forum picks of November, which is the proof black in white, shows a pretty obvious -ev.

Normally someone starts to ask money after showing a profitable month, but that’s not what happening here. If this was my thread with my picks, I waited for the subs after showing one, two or even three months with decent results.

I have noticed in your message history that you asked for several loans, so there are a lot of times you are out of cash. Not only because you had not your password with you to access your bitcoins and need some bitcoin to make bets. I think the need for cash makes you decide to start the subscription so early and not after profitable ‘forum picks months’.

Maybe you overrate yourself or maybe you are new to betting and want to convince others that you're high experienced to collect subs. Maybe you are really as good as you say, but you need to prove it. No basketball pictures, personal results or screenshots of winning bets. Winning forum picks is what we like to see.

I understand that some people already subscribed and thus paid. In my opinion you subbed to soon to this picker. You need to wait for positive and long term proved results before putting your money into a picker. To those ask the money back before the subscription will start and decide at a later stage to subscribe or not. Tbh I'm afraid the money back will not happen. He lost his picks so is probably out of money.

The only thing you can do is to be very careful with the bets. He offered a 50% refund on losing months. Using high stakes with again a losing month, results in losing 50% of the subscription money plus the losing stakes. If the free picks ending today as planned keep us informed about the results you made with the given picks.

I did mention the GSW o bet was lost.  And I accounted that in the record.  I got .1 loans 2 times in the past.  To make a few extra parlays, but not because I am broke.

It's good you followed this thread.  I am not out of money, in fact I just put $2k on Bitstamp recently to convert to btc.  I said I am new to sports betting in general, but I was a winner in the past in NBA only.  The month of November I am not -EV.  I only posted 10-12 picks before and decided to abandon thread before a few PM'd me asking for more picks.  Then I decided to do subscription after 1 month because there's way too much effort I put into this.  It's unfair to give it away for free for 2 or 3 months like you said.  Also I'm not making things better than it looks.  I am posting bball info and stats as well as showing proof I am heavily involved with bball.  

Is that not important to being a BASKETBALL handicapper?  Just because I borrowed .1 in the past doesn't mean I'm broke, lol.  Here is a screenshot of $2k I just put on bitstamp to convert to btc for this season.  So I'm not broke bum lol.  I make $50/hr for several sessions of BASKETBALL a week taking up 3-4 hrs.  Yeah I get paid to play bball.  




I will obviously be posting results from subscription so I can get more subscribers.  I'm not really doing it for the money tbh.  I just need something to motivate me to be posting my picks and analysis, because I put in at least 2-3 hours a day into it.

Check back for the results.  Maybe you'll subscribe and it will motivate me to put in even more work and put up even better results.  GL sir.

[jjc326]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

[Xiaoxiao]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

In terms of getting shafted, that will not happen.  I'm not a scammer, lol.  In terms of winning or losing, I can't promise winning but I am fairly confident I will win.  A lot of paid services lose after the vig, and I'm probably going to be winning after the vig.  We'll see.  Stay tuned bud.

[caga]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

Even tippsters can have a bad week. And no one is asking people following the tips to put in all the money. I usually, start by investing something like 0.005/unit on each tip..
This way, if the whole month has been bad, I simply don;t follow anymore.

[DebitMe]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

In terms of getting shafted, that will not happen.  I'm not a scammer, lol.  In terms of winning or losing, I can't promise winning but I am fairly confident I will win.  A lot of paid services lose after the vig, and I'm probably going to be winning after the vig.  We'll see.  Stay tuned bud.

If there are issues or questions about anything, I would be willing to stand in as an escrow for membership fees between xiaoxiao and the customer.  If Xiaoxiao also would like, I can help track his bets for him on a google shared spreadsheet, please refer to Stayeduptolate's thread where I do this service for him to see a sample of what the spreadsheet would look like.  My payment would come in the form of free sports picks as long as they are put out.

Please let me know if your interested xiaoxiao.

[sherbyspark]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

I see all these arguments void, specially because they are coming one day before the paid tips start.
If you guys had issues, then why not start the first day he started posting tips, it was clear he would charge after a month of free tips.
If you don't like the tips, and might lose with them, its simple, Just ignore them.

[Xiaoxiao]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

In terms of getting shafted, that will not happen.  I'm not a scammer, lol.  In terms of winning or losing, I can't promise winning but I am fairly confident I will win.  A lot of paid services lose after the vig, and I'm probably going to be winning after the vig.  We'll see.  Stay tuned bud.

If there are issues or questions about anything, I would be willing to stand in as an escrow for membership fees between xiaoxiao and the customer.  If Xiaoxiao also would like, I can help track his bets for him on a google shared spreadsheet, please refer to Stayeduptolate's thread where I do this service for him to see a sample of what the spreadsheet would look like.  My payment would come in the form of free sports picks as long as they are put out.

Please let me know if your interested xiaoxiao.

You seem like a great forum member and honest person. I'd be interested in your help and would gladly to add you to the subscription.  May I have new subscribers send you the funds from now on?  Let's talk via PM.

[CoinTheCoin]

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

In terms of getting shafted, that will not happen.  I'm not a scammer, lol.  In terms of winning or losing, I can't promise winning but I am fairly confident I will win.  A lot of paid services lose after the vig, and I'm probably going to be winning after the vig.  We'll see.  Stay tuned bud.

If there are issues or questions about anything, I would be willing to stand in as an escrow for membership fees between xiaoxiao and the customer.  If Xiaoxiao also would like, I can help track his bets for him on a google shared spreadsheet, please refer to Stayeduptolate's thread where I do this service for him to see a sample of what the spreadsheet would look like.  My payment would come in the form of free sports picks as long as they are put out.

Please let me know if your interested xiaoxiao.

+1

This would go a long way in reassuring customers... especially if an escrow is held for the full month's period before being released.  

As it stands right now, it's pretty hard to keep track or verify your bets.  Working with DebitMe will help keep your thread organized and make it easier for customer interaction.

From reading some of your posts, it seems that you're very passionate about basketball and definitely have some knowledge about the sport.

You've mentioned that you go over and study previous game tape.  Can you take some time and provide some in-depth game analysis that includes what you saw that reconfirmed your thoughts about efficiencies or inefficiencies of offensive and defensive gameplans and matchups?

Are these capped games based mostly on observational analysis or do you take into consideration line movement, betting volume, and history as well?

I still don't understand your argument of parlays over straight wagers however.  Usually gains are made by making multiple +EV (positive expected value) bets over the course of a long period.  If it gets to the point of hedging out the last legs of the parlays, I believe this should be avoided as it is widely believed to be -EV unless you're working outside a proper bankroll.

Regardless, I wish you luck in your endeavours.  Hope you have a great season

[Xiaoxiao]

Subscription begins Dec. 5!!!

Record thus far this year: 91-59-5 (W-L-T) for 30.5 units profit!

Included is expert picks (guaranteed 60-200+ picks per month), solid parlay combos that I see profitable, confidence level, explanations, insider news content and rumors, and more.

Why I am so good at what I do:

Most experts only rely on stats and algorithms, and might manage a small victory in the long run and probably a loss after vig (the fee taken by the sports betting exchange). My picks will be aided by film analysisand statistical algorithms as well, but I will also factor in team psychology, momentum, morale and motivation, bench rotations, and many other factors denoted in a point system.

Finally there are things that go beyond algorithms.

I was a former basketball trainer (yes basketball exclusively), AAU coach, and serious basketball player.  But most of all, I understand the NBA and the psychology of the odds makers, as well as players and coaches.  

Price for subscription:

3 days: $5 (in btc)*

1 week: $10

SPECIAL PROMOTION 1 month 45 days: $30*

SPECIAL PROMOTION for monthly subscribers: If I don't profit in units for your month, you will get a 50% refund of your money in btc for the days of that month*

Please private message trusted forum member DebitMe profile: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=73438 for payment info.  He will be escrowing funds and handling records.

For any other questions, feel free to private message myself.  

I will be emailing report daily @ 22:00 GMT on weekdays.  Weekends will be the same unless there is matinee game.  In that case, I will be emailing picks 1 hour before the start of the matinee game.

Remember:

I am not just a sports tipper or math guy, I am also a basketball expert.  This is why I win, and this is my day job.

If you're a basketball fan and sports bettor, let me do all the work for you.

*Promotion ends Jan. 1, 2015
*Due to the complications with paypal, I can only accept payment in btc
*All conversion will be in bitstamp price.

[Vani]

Just received the first picks. Xia - I subscribed earlier this week. You are free to send them to the escrow or not. I have faith that you keep your promises we made on pm. Looking forward to the coming days and weeks.

Good luck  

[ratioxz]

Tonight single picks 4 won 5 lost and two combos with 0.10 ant 0.20 so its -1.567 units for today and -8.29 units for this month

[johny08]

Tonight single picks 4 won 5 lost and two combos with 0.10 ant 0.20 so its -1.567 units for today and -8.29 units for this month

I love basketball. so far i was on the sideline with betting and reading the forum. So whats the deal here?

is it worth to make money for you? are you going to continue?

[ratioxz]

Yes I am going to continue,I have monthly subscription and it is just beginning,so results can change in profit very quickly.I do believe that he is good at making predictions you can just follow results and if you like them you start your own subscription.