WhatTheGox (OP)
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November 03, 2014, 03:47:43 PM |
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unamis76
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November 03, 2014, 04:25:32 PM |
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This guy did it again, how is it even possible...
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redsn0w
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#Free market
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November 03, 2014, 04:26:30 PM |
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This guy did it again, how is it even possible...
I don't know , it's very strange...
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DarKSpectrE
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 03, 2014, 05:27:43 PM |
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This guy did it again, how is it even possible...
I don't know , it's very strange... Yep, I don't buy that it was a pure dumb luck.
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Omikifuse
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November 03, 2014, 05:36:43 PM |
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This guy did it again, how is it even possible...
I don't know , it's very strange... Yep, I don't buy that it was a pure dumb luck. Or maybe he found a flaw in the betting system. Or maybe he is from the Secret Service and has a Quantum computer to play with. If it is pure luck it is a waste, because he could win billions betting on lottery
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DarKSpectrE
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 03, 2014, 05:39:22 PM |
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This guy did it again, how is it even possible...
I don't know , it's very strange... Yep, I don't buy that it was a pure dumb luck. Or maybe he found a flaw in the betting system. Or maybe he is from the Secret Service and has a Quantum computer to play with. If it is pure luck it is a waste, because he could win billions betting on lottery Lol. Maybe he has the server seed.
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omahapoker
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 03, 2014, 05:45:08 PM |
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dooglus knows a lot and i mean alot about server seed ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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zoukenn
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 03, 2014, 06:18:05 PM |
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I hope that Hufflepuff will stop to bet in primedice and go at an other part or try to have fun with its money, because this isn't absolutely a good thing for primedice ![Undecided](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/undecided.gif)
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dooglus
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November 03, 2014, 06:29:04 PM |
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http://prntscr.com/52kipm Just another example of how Stunna is a scam artist. I don't know how Primedice has survived this long with Stunna scamming Hufflepuff 1/3 of a penny every time he wins $8,000... I made a typo. It's more like 4 pennies not 1/3 of a penny: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdfI26G8.png&t=665&c=2tJ9T1vznq7RcQ) It's still a small percentage error. My point is that such errors shouldn't happen.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
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November 03, 2014, 06:33:27 PM |
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Plus when PrimeDice still had public stats, this is months ago if not last year PrimeDice already had 4000+ profit. That is at least a billion bets ago.
Are you sure PrimeDice ever had public stats? I remember they used to show the number of bets and the total amount wagered, but I don't think they ever showed their profit. They stopped publishing the amount wagered about a month ago: Tue Sep 30 11:14:09 PDT 2014 BTC WAGERED: 479,855.2881 TOTAL BETS: 1,165,821,154 Wed Oct 1 09:26:44 PDT 2014 BTC WAGERED: 481,527.3520 TOTAL BETS: 1,173,764,666 Thu Oct 2 11:09:28 PDT 2014 BTC WAGERED: 484,587.2089 TOTAL BETS: 1,184,083,585 Fri Oct 3 12:36:05 PDT 2014 TOTAL BETS: 1,194,817,217 Sat Oct 4 10:53:32 PDT 2014 TOTAL BETS: 1,203,248,935 Sun Oct 5 10:05:42 PDT 2014 TOTAL BETS: 1,213,617,864
but given a house edge of 1%, we would expect a profit of around 5000 BTC at that point. Of course, the actual profit could be vastly different in either direction. He probably figured a way to determine when the middle part that loses either way, above 33.0 and below 66.99, has passed its cycle and just bounce between <33.0 and >66.99 depending which one is going into positive variance.
According to Wikipedia: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzSzjtpR.png&t=665&c=LbNFyDc05YvlOA) The squared term means that variance is always non-negative. So what is "positive variance"? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FEp5GTmf.png&t=665&c=FIRTwpS8vAY-1w)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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paradoxal420
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 03, 2014, 06:47:38 PM |
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Plus when PrimeDice still had public stats, this is months ago if not last year PrimeDice already had 4000+ profit. That is at least a billion bets ago.
Are you sure PrimeDice ever had public stats? I remember they used to show the number of bets and the total amount wagered, but I don't think they ever showed their profit. They stopped publishing the amount wagered about a month ago: Tue Sep 30 11:14:09 PDT 2014 BTC WAGERED: 479,855.2881 TOTAL BETS: 1,165,821,154 Wed Oct 1 09:26:44 PDT 2014 BTC WAGERED: 481,527.3520 TOTAL BETS: 1,173,764,666 Thu Oct 2 11:09:28 PDT 2014 BTC WAGERED: 484,587.2089 TOTAL BETS: 1,184,083,585 Fri Oct 3 12:36:05 PDT 2014 TOTAL BETS: 1,194,817,217 Sat Oct 4 10:53:32 PDT 2014 TOTAL BETS: 1,203,248,935 Sun Oct 5 10:05:42 PDT 2014 TOTAL BETS: 1,213,617,864
but given a house edge of 1%, we would expect a profit of around 5000 BTC at that point. Of course, the actual profit could be vastly different in either direction. He probably figured a way to determine when the middle part that loses either way, above 33.0 and below 66.99, has passed its cycle and just bounce between <33.0 and >66.99 depending which one is going into positive variance.
According to Wikipedia: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzSzjtpR.png&t=665&c=LbNFyDc05YvlOA) The squared term means that variance is always non-negative. So what is "positive variance"? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FEp5GTmf.png&t=665&c=FIRTwpS8vAY-1w) Yeah I'm pretty positive there was a time in 2013 when they showed the house profit
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▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ PRIMEDICE The Premier Bitcoin Gambling Experience - PRIMEDICE 3 HAS LAUNCHED @PrimeDice ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
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HWoodrow
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 03, 2014, 07:04:25 PM |
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What a disaster ! This user is the most luckiest people that I've ever heard since I'm in the bitcoin world.
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marcotheminer
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┴puoʎǝq ʞool┴
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November 03, 2014, 07:18:36 PM |
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If this truly is a different person than Stunna, then I think Stunna is close to 0 house profit again. (2000BTC having to be paid out) He must behoping he'll continue to come back and lose eventually.
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dooglus
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November 03, 2014, 07:46:14 PM |
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dooglus knows a lot and i mean alot about server seed ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) It's funny because "server seed" can also mean "waiter cum". I'm not sure why omahapoker is commenting on this; the manner in which I chose to "tip" my servants is entirely between me and them.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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m19
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November 03, 2014, 07:49:32 PM |
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Plus when PrimeDice still had public stats, this is months ago if not last year PrimeDice already had 4000+ profit. That is at least a billion bets ago.
Are you sure PrimeDice ever had public stats? I remember they used to show the number of bets and the total amount wagered, but I don't think they ever showed their profit. They stopped publishing the amount wagered about a month ago: I'm not sure anymore. It could be the bankroll instead of profit like shown on this picture I found googling. I'm pretty sure some number on there, either bankroll or profit, was around 4000.
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FanEagle
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November 03, 2014, 07:58:24 PM |
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I think the world goes like that, some has a giant luck, and some others hasn't
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dooglus
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November 03, 2014, 07:59:07 PM Last edit: November 03, 2014, 08:22:59 PM by dooglus |
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That is why his luck % of 104.23 after 7,292 rolls is so high.
Do we know how PD calculates the luck statistic? I just made a new account ('dooglus2') and played 24 times at 3x (33%), noting wins, losses, and luck: wins losses luck 0 0 NaN 1 0 1 202.94 2 101.47 * 3 67.65 4 50.73 5 40.59 6 33.82 7 28.99 8 25.37 9 22.55 10 20.29 2 40.59 3 60.88 4 81.18 5 101.47 * 11 92.24 12 84.56 6 101.47 * 7 118.38 13 109.27 14 101.47 * 15 94.7 8 108.23 16 101.47 *
I can't immediately come up with the formula they're using. When I had won 1 and lost 1, my luck was 202.94%. I had bet twice at 33%, so my expected number of wins was 0.66 and my actual number of wins was 1. How do I get 202.94% from that? Note that my #wins was exactly double my #losses 5 times (not counting the starting 0,0 case) and each time it was, my luck was 101.47%. Edit: this fits pretty well: (0.6697 / 0.33) * (wins / losses)I don't know why 0.6697 though, when my chance of losing is 0.67 Edit2: I think this tells us that hufflepuff played at least some rolls at a different multiplier. Because winning 2865 times and losing 4427 times at 3x would give a luck of around 131.33%, but his luck was "only" 104.23% at that point.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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chazley
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November 03, 2014, 08:21:52 PM |
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That is why his luck % of 104.23 after 7,292 rolls is so high.
Do we know how PD calculates the luck statistic? I just made a new account ('dooglus2') and played 24 times at 3x (33%), noting wins, losses, and luck: wins losses luck 0 0 NaN 1 0 1 202.94 2 101.47 * 3 67.65 4 50.73 5 40.59 6 33.82 7 28.99 8 25.37 9 22.55 10 20.29 2 40.59 3 60.88 4 81.18 5 101.47 * 11 92.24 12 84.56 6 101.47 * 7 118.38 13 109.27 14 101.47 * 15 94.7 8 108.23 16 101.47 *
I can't immediately come up with the formula they're using. When I had won 1 and lost 1, my luck was 202.94%. I had bet twice at 33%, so my expected number of wins was 0.66 and my actual number of wins was 1. How do I get 202.94% from that? Note that my #wins was exactly double my #losses 5 times (not counting the starting 0,0 case) and each time it was, my luck was 101.47%. Edit: this fits pretty well: (0.6697 / 0.33) * (wins / losses)I don't know why 0.6697 though, when my chance of losing is 0.67 Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already. Much love.
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Omikifuse
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November 03, 2014, 08:24:11 PM |
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He probably is at the local brothel spending his hard earned bitcoins.
At least I would not bother to visit forums or gamble online for some long time if I was the winner of 1k Bitcoins
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jstyler
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November 03, 2014, 08:24:47 PM |
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I would be even happy with 1 btc or more lol
Anyway, nice happenings on pd3 over there...
Never had that luck, just lost my hard worked 0.6 BTC :/
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contact me for advertisement
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