Hufflepuff Making 2k BTC On PrimeDice Nov 2014. March 2015 Update: He Cheated

[dooglus]

Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already.

Much love.

Stunna just lost 2000 BTC in a few days and must be stressing about it. "Is there an exploit? Is he cheating? Is he going to bust me? Should I reduce the max bet to prevent further losses, or would that just prevent him losing his gains back to the site?"

I remember having all those worries whenever anyone got lucky on JD, and don't miss them.

Mwaaaah.

[richierich]

We are not worthy

HUFFLEPUFF THE ROBIN HOOD OF OUR TIMES WTFG BRO!

[bitcasino]

Who is Hufflepuff? How old is he?..
The only clue I found,
Hufflepuff values hard work, patience, justice, and loyalty. The house mascot is the badger, and canary yellow and black are its colours. The Head of this house http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hogwarts
 

[Shogen]

Hufflepuff crossing 1000 Bitcoin profit on PrimeDice, watched it live and recorded the moment (vid below), so sick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uALj-u-BvOc&list=UUYT9hwCLb2qhv8wnCGWmw9w

Part 2: Hufflepuff Continues And Makes 2000 Bitcoin Profit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSLXv5Tz1ZY&list=UUYT9hwCLb2qhv8wnCGWmw9w&index=1

Will we see a third video tomorrow showing Hufflepuff winning over 3000 btc from PD lol? 

[chazley]

Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already.

Much love.

Stunna just lost 2000 BTC in a few days and must be stressing about it. "Is there an exploit? Is he cheating? Is he going to bust me? Should I reduce the max bet to prevent further losses, or would that just prevent him losing his gains back to the site?"

I remember having all those worries whenever anyone got lucky on JD, and don't miss them.

Mwaaaah.

That's the beauty of a site with investors... you do not have to worry about big losses nearly as much. The community really needs you to come back after getting scammed repeatedly, at the very least as an escrow of cold-wallet funds for a site. I'm sure you have a plethora of options available to you that would include significantly less work than before. I know you have said previously you didn't do JD for the money, but it had to be nice.

[gangz]

He should withdraw his winnings and never return. He's just going to end up giving them back.

You don't win 2,000 BTC with that kind of mentality haha. 

[duckydonald]

I think this shit was done on purpose to bring traffic to PD. bullshit luck dont exist like this

[omahapoker]

this is the only pic we have of hufflepuff



yes your right, a 14 year old is taking stunna and edward to the cleaners



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0Z5_wipT2o


you can thank hui for youtube video. dont know what he was searching for at you tube

[dooglus]

This doesn't seem like a very good way to talk to your biggest customer:

[Stunna]

This doesn't seem like a very good way to talk to your biggest customer:

Ed & Huffle have talked on Skype a bit before. They're on a pretty chilled basis I assume

[Densitymax]

I think this is just a publicity stunt.

[alani123]

I think this is just a publicity stunt.

Looking at this from a third person perspective and seeing that this guy is still betting I guess that Primedice isn't in trouble for now. At least not yet. If this is really happening the hard part for PD should be paying out this guy. That's a great way for us all to see if Primedice is really as big as it wants us to believe it is.

But all this makes me somewhat suspicious too.

[Stunna]

I think this is just a publicity stunt.

Looking at this from a third person perspective and seeing that this guy is still betting I guess that Primedice isn't in trouble for now. At least not yet. If this is really happening the hard part for PD should be paying out this guy. That's a great way for us all to see if Primedice is really as big as it wants us to believe it is.

But all this makes me somewhat suspicious too.

HUfflepuff has been paid out in full.

Our max payout is now only 20 BTC instead of 40 BTC.

[cryptasm]

That is why his luck % of 104.23 after 7,292 rolls is so high.

Do we know how PD calculates the luck statistic?

I just made a new account ('dooglus2') and played 24 times at 3x (33%), noting wins, losses, and luck:

wins    losses  luck
0       0       NaN
        1       0
1               202.94
        2       101.47 *
        3       67.65
        4       50.73
        5       40.59
        6       33.82
        7       28.99
        8       25.37
        9       22.55
        10      20.29
2               40.59
3               60.88
4               81.18
5               101.47 *
        11      92.24
        12      84.56
6               101.47 *
7               118.38
        13      109.27
        14      101.47 *
        15      94.7
8               108.23
        16      101.47 *

I can't immediately come up with the formula they're using.

When I had won 1 and lost 1, my luck was 202.94%. I had bet twice at 33%, so my expected number of wins was 0.66 and my actual number of wins was 1. How do I get 202.94% from that?

Note that my #wins was exactly double my #losses 5 times (not counting the starting 0,0 case) and each time it was, my luck was 101.47%.

Edit: this fits pretty well:

   (0.6697 / 0.33) * (wins / losses)

I don't know why 0.6697 though, when my chance of losing is 0.67

Edit2: I think this tells us that hufflepuff played at least some rolls at a different multiplier. Because winning 2865 times and losing 4427 times at 3x would give a luck of around 131.33%, but his luck was "only" 104.23% at that point.

If that bettor was real than we know at least that primedice doesnt rig anything=P

[dooglus]

I think this is just a publicity stunt.

I doubt it. Another dice site recently started allowing profits of up to 40 BTC per bet. If PD could have safely continued without halving their maximum payout, I'm sure they would have. It's not much of a publicity stunt to show how much people can win and then immediately withdraw the very bet sizes he used to win that much...

[Stunna]

I think this is just a publicity stunt.

I doubt it. Another dice site recently started allowing profits of up to 40 BTC per bet. If PD could have safely continued without halving their maximum payout, I'm sure they would have. It's not much of a publicity stunt to show how much people can win and then immediately withdraw the very bet sizes he used to win that much...

True, if this were some sort of publicity stunt we wouldn't try to limit our future profits. We had the bankroll to handle bets of that size very comfortably before but now are less comfortable handling them. As I've said before, there's no point in trying to convince skeptics otherwise as I'd probably question it myself if it wasn't right in front of me. However, in this situation logic would point to this being real given the actions we've taken and the course all of this took.

It's pretty aggravating to put in so much work and effort into something and have absolute odds and still fail to turn a profit. I lost some faith in the odds this week, but I'm fairly confident that the loss will be recouped within the next 100 days given the growth of PD and things will work out over time. We will consider re-raising the max bet at that time. To put it bluntly, shit happens but we're going to stay positive and work hard to firmly hold our position at the top of the gambling scene.

Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already.

Much love.

Stunna just lost 2000 BTC in a few days and must be stressing about it. "Is there an exploit? Is he cheating? Is he going to bust me? Should I reduce the max bet to prevent further losses, or would that just prevent him losing his gains back to the site?"

I remember having all those worries whenever anyone got lucky on JD, and don't miss them.

Mwaaaah.

These concerns are very much here and have seriously stressed me out the past few days. While the win is extremely unlikely we haven't found any proof of ill intent/exploiting and opted to pay out huffle as there was no definitive proof of anything. As far as we can tell and in my opinion he legitimately got very lucky and won quite a bit but we can never know for sure. I fully understand why you (doog) felt the stress was too great. Honestly the only thing that keeps me sane is the fact that our stress & workload is divided between a few people each of which have an insane tolerance for risk and loss and don't need bitcoins to make ends meet.

I've said this many times but we're long term believers in bitcoin and cannot be heavily shook by great losses in terms of the price of bitcoin or losses to players. Proof of this is further given by the fact that I've never sold a single bitcoin for fiat currency. We sustained a massive loss but we were once again given an opportunity to prove our trustworthiness and how that even in an anonymous environment where we'd have ultimate control to act unethically we never for a second considered it. *Not that this will stop people who lose 5 satoshi bets from questioning the fairness and wielding their pitchforks after a 6 loss streak  

[BitCoinNutJob]

So he is betting 3x (33%) - and has 2,865 wins & 4,427 loses and 7,292 plays - which is a 39.3% winning percentage +6.3%

While total wagered is 61,406 BTC and winnings being 2,037 BTC

And basically alternating between HI/LO?

Has anyone ran the % that this would happen and has anyone seen a pattern on the HI/LO bets?

If you think about it this kinda run is possible i dont know how to work it out exactly but remember its 61,406 wagered but lets say all were in chunks of 12 btc which most were takes us down to 5k spins of the dice.

[sickhouse]

Good for him, 1 big winner among the soon to be 2 billion bets placed. 

[dave23]

dooglus knows a lot and i mean alot about server seed

It's funny because "server seed" can also mean "waiter cum".

I'm not sure why omahapoker is commenting on this; the manner in which I chose to "tip" my servants is entirely between me and them.

LOLIRL!!!! - thanks doog

[cubanos]

Good for him, 1 big winner among the soon to be 2 billion bets placed.  

Wow! Happy to hear about this.