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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1649236 times)
lebing
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Bitcoin: The honey badger of currencies


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March 09, 2013, 09:48:57 AM
 #12981


Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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rpietila
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March 09, 2013, 09:49:48 AM
 #12982

(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

Great, where will you go short? I can borrow you some. Grin

Hmmm. any suggestions? Cheesy

My position is about 500. What do you think is the best way to change this to a position of -1000, (so that I profit $1000 for each dollar it loses value)?

I don't care about technicalities. What matters to me is

- Liquidity. Possible to enter and exit contract within reasonable time (after all it is 1500 BTC change in position)
- Security. I don't want to lose my BTC or profits.
- Fees. Yeah this kind of play is expensive but I am a very fee-averse person and quite skilled in maths

lebing
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Bitcoin: The honey badger of currencies


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March 09, 2013, 09:50:49 AM
 #12983

I am going to lol if we get over 50 on a weekend.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
zby
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March 09, 2013, 09:52:46 AM
 #12984

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter!  There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$.  I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$.  

People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 (http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction".  Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper.  And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right?  But I still wanted to read the paper myself.  And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site.  I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!".
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March 09, 2013, 09:53:08 AM
 #12985

I would add that any options play / betting or whatever is good, as long as the effective change in payout is along the lines.

(Yes, right now it is moving to direction that I not so likely short but anyway the moment of truth is some time tomorrow Wink

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March 09, 2013, 09:53:53 AM
 #12986

(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

Great, where will you go short? I can borrow you some. Grin

Hmmm. any suggestions? Cheesy

My position is about 500. What do you think is the best way to change this to a position of -1000, (so that I profit $1000 for each dollar it loses value)?

I don't care about technicalities. What matters to me is

- Liquidity. Possible to enter and exit contract within reasonable time (after all it is 1500 BTC change in position)
- Security. I don't want to lose my BTC or profits.
- Fees. Yeah this kind of play is expensive but I am a very fee-averse person and quite skilled in maths

Well, probably can't help you out then, I had about 200-300 available for borrowing, but the remaining unloaned part is only 50 by now.

The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
rpietila
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March 09, 2013, 09:59:25 AM
 #12987


The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.

Please, tell me more I beg you Smiley The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit)

lebing
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Bitcoin: The honey badger of currencies


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March 09, 2013, 10:03:06 AM
 #12988


The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.

Please, tell me more I beg you Smiley The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit)

Yeah the rally tried to take a breather... The demand is simply too high. Peoples expectations is what needs adjusting, not the price (down that is).

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
oakpacific
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March 09, 2013, 10:06:48 AM
 #12989


The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.

Please, tell me more I beg you Smiley The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit)

Okay, first you could just setup a trading account on Bitfinex and taking BTC loans there, there seems to be about 2000 BTC available for borrowing there, this is a platform not incorporated yet, but the security seems to be relatively solid as these guys put most of their balance in a cold wallet and process withdrawals once per day manually.

For options trading the biggest platform is MPEX, but it has been down for days and is notoriously unfriendly to use, or you could try icbit.se, there is also a MPEX passthrough called coinbr(disclaimer: I haven't done any BTC option trading personally yet)

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
oakpacific
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March 09, 2013, 10:11:06 AM
 #12990

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter!  There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$.  I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$.  

People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 (http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction".  Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper.  And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right?  But I still wanted to read the paper myself.  And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site.  I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!".

So what's so bad? If you have held until now, it's going to be way more profitable than putting your money into banks, whatever way you look at it.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
rpietila
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March 09, 2013, 10:15:49 AM
 #12991


The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.

Please, tell me more I beg you Smiley The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit)

Okay, first you could just setup a trading account on Bitfinex and taking BTC loans there, there seems to be about 2000 BTC available for borrowing there, this is a platform not incorporated yet, but the security seems to be relatively solid as these guys put most of their balance in a cold wallet and process withdrawals once per day manually.

For options trading the biggest platform is MPEX, but it has been down for days and is notoriously unfriendly to use, or you could try icbit.se, there is also a MPEX passthrough called coinbr(disclaimer: I haven't done any BTC option trading personally yet)

So you think there could be demand for the service I outlined (and playtested) in the other thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0

It would allow me to just specify in which exchange rate outcome (what price and what week) I want to profit and how much, and calculate the option premium (or call it wager if you will). No need to register anywhere, just send BTC, and the blockchain will testify that everything is done honestly.

oakpacific
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March 09, 2013, 10:23:11 AM
 #12992


The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.

Please, tell me more I beg you Smiley The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit)

Okay, first you could just setup a trading account on Bitfinex and taking BTC loans there, there seems to be about 2000 BTC available for borrowing there, this is a platform not incorporated yet, but the security seems to be relatively solid as these guys put most of their balance in a cold wallet and process withdrawals once per day manually.

For options trading the biggest platform is MPEX, but it has been down for days and is notoriously unfriendly to use, or you could try icbit.se, there is also a MPEX passthrough called coinbr(disclaimer: I haven't done any BTC option trading personally yet)

So you think there could be demand for the service I outlined (and playtested) in the other thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0

It would allow me to just specify in which exchange rate outcome (what price and what week) I want to profit and how much, and calculate the option premium (or call it wager if you will). No need to register anywhere, just send BTC, and the blockchain will testify that everything is done honestly.

Demand? WTF are you talking about? This is so f***ing cool I am gonna try it out in no time! Wink

Keep it up buddy, those MPEX thugs need some serious kicks in the ass! Grin

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
zby
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March 09, 2013, 10:24:27 AM
 #12993

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter!  There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$.  I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$.  

People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 (http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction".  Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper.  And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right?  But I still wanted to read the paper myself.  And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site.  I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!".

So what's so bad? If you have held until now, it's going to be way more profitable than putting your money into banks, whatever way you look at it.

Well - I never complained.  I sold during the crash and bought back around 4 with some left-over money.  Overall crazy profitable.
rpietila
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March 09, 2013, 10:29:25 AM
 #12994

Quote
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0

It would allow me to just specify in which exchange rate outcome (what price and what week) I want to profit and how much, and calculate the option premium (or call it wager if you will). No need to register anywhere, just send BTC, and the blockchain will testify that everything is done honestly.

Demand? WTF are you talking about? This is so f***ing cool I am gonna try it out in no time! Wink

Thanks Grin

I also would like such a thing to exist so I'm trying to create one  Cheesy

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March 09, 2013, 10:31:38 AM
 #12995

If only I knee-eew if this is a false breakout or real one. Would be so cool to short from the top of the hill all the way to $27.04!  Cool

lebing
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Bitcoin: The honey badger of currencies


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March 09, 2013, 10:38:59 AM
 #12996

If only I knee-eew if this is a false breakout or real one. Would be so cool to short from the top of the hill all the way to $27.04!  Cool

You seem like a good guy. Dont get fucked by the bitcoin noobs like Lucif did.



Bro, do you even blockchain?
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March 09, 2013, 10:51:03 AM
 #12997

If you want to get some cheap coins sell now.  Don't thank me later.
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Bitcoin: The honey badger of currencies


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March 09, 2013, 10:58:54 AM
 #12998

If you want to get some cheap coins sell now.  Don't thank me later.

Buy back now bro - those walls at 48.5 are not real.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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March 09, 2013, 10:59:01 AM
 #12999

What the fuck 's happening just now by the way? We're almost at $47.
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March 09, 2013, 11:02:24 AM
 #13000

What the fuck 's happening just now by the way? We're almost at $47.

I'm wondering if some bulls decided to run it all the way upto 50.
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