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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652749 times)
rpietila
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March 17, 2013, 09:15:55 PM
 #13761

There more people are touting their hope to see $50...

...the less they will see it. Why? Everybody hoping for price to rise is already committed, and cannot help the price to rise by buying more. The ones that could cause the price to rise (such as I) don't want it to rise, as they want to buy cheaper.

Therefore, the more people I see wishing for a price rise, the less I will be helping them. If I see too many such people, I will start selling, and then you will, and then the price will not indeed rise but rather fall. How about that?

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March 17, 2013, 09:17:04 PM
 #13762

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rpietila
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March 17, 2013, 09:21:39 PM
 #13763


If you are all in, therefore cannot buy, and do not intend to sell, you have no share in deciding bitcoin's future. Your (in)action will not cause the price to do anything. You can just hope.

molecular
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March 17, 2013, 09:24:55 PM
 #13764

There more people are touting their hope to see $50...

...the less they will see it. Why? Everybody hoping for price to rise is already committed, and cannot help the price to rise by buying more. The ones that could cause the price to rise (such as I) don't want it to rise, as they want to buy cheaper.

Therefore, the more people I see wishing for a price rise, the less I will be helping them. If I see too many such people, I will start selling, and then you will, and then the price will not indeed rise but rather fall. How about that?

That would be great because I have some fiat waiting on exchanges for that case. Quite a bit of fiat actually. This fact and the one that I was one of the people touting the horn hints at the possibility that your assumption that everybody hoping for a rise is 100% commited might be inaccurate.

However, the muteness of the bears is quite astonishing, maybe you're right and most of them got back in...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, rpietila. You seem to be on your way to become a well-known and respected community member quite fast.

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molecular
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March 17, 2013, 09:27:36 PM
 #13765


If you are all in, therefore cannot buy, and do not intend to sell, you have no share in deciding bitcoin's future. Your (in)action will not cause the price to do anything. You can just hope.

You said his action would be to sell and that was what you based your possible outlook on. If he was an indicator for a sizeable enough part of the long dudes (which is possible) he would've just invalidated your outlook.

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wareen
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March 17, 2013, 09:29:32 PM
 #13766

There more people are touting their hope to see $50...

...the less they will see it. Why? Everybody hoping for price to rise is already committed, and cannot help the price to rise by buying more.
Already being committed does not imply not being able to buy more. Some of us actually do have jobs you know Wink

The ones that could cause the price to rise (such as I) don't want it to rise, as they want to buy cheaper.
Of course and you are in good company: there's over 8 million USD in the visible order book on Mt. Gox alone. Just don't assume all of that money will wait indefinitely for lower prices.
robocoin
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March 17, 2013, 09:33:59 PM
 #13767

It seems to be holding steady with a lot of orders on both sides.

This resoundingly demonstrates the willingness of sellers to stop this rally for now (which is good for the long term prospects of Bitcoin).

+1

There need to be some quiet times to show that bitcoin is not just some speculative toy. Larger investors/businesses will gain confidence to enter the market in the long run.

Once we cross 50 it might(will) be violent for a few days...

Yes, absolutlely nothing wrong with going sideways or down for a while. Let new awesome projects develop, let new businesses offer Bitcoin payments and let potential investors gain confidence in this new price level. I think alot of people don't invest into Bitcoin atm because the price seems already sky high. Oh wait? Its only me who wants to see a little consolidation period. Expect further panic buying!

Bitcoin is still in beta, you really think you can attract the hundreds of millions from institutional investors, when the blockchain forks, something simple as Satoshi Dice is a threat to Bitcoin and core devs telling you that its possible to lose your asset at any time? lol?
There are VCs and other captains like 'loaded' bringing in boat loads of money, high risk - extrem high profits. But in order to get grandma believe/trust in Bitcoin, a lot of work has do be done to reach bitcoind v.1.0+

I am releaxed, in the worst case I lose a few coins if I have to buy back at higher prices, like a pig Roll Eyes. I'll reevaluate when $50 is broken, or we're sideways for a month, or this turns out to be a steady little uptrend. I can afford to leave out some profit, I don't pray to money. I know its dangerous because of all the fresh money on the books, but 'walls' have proven wrong, too many times.

I payed my rent and renovation and my awesome new bicycle Grin with my Bitcoin profits. I feel bad about selling below $48? No! Don't get too serious about the price, if you can't have a little party after +250% in less than 3 months, no one can help you.
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March 17, 2013, 11:52:17 PM
 #13768

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Yeah, no.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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March 18, 2013, 12:13:31 AM
 #13769

Since Wall Watching is boring atm, so I thought some of you might want change looks. This is work in progress, but you may like it already:



http://goxgame.sytes.net/

-Clickable legend: hide the stuff you dont want to see
-Graphical history of selected market depth points (only started logging recently!)
-Easy export chart (bitmap, vector, pdf)

Known issues:
- if you zoom in too fast, like from 7 day to 10 minutes, it wont zoom as much as you intended. Click the button again.
- hosted on terribly unreliable server for now, dont be mad if it goes down Smiley
- incomplete dataset

Things I will add still:
- regular depth chart
- vertical zoom
- <Your suggestion goes here>

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March 18, 2013, 12:25:43 AM
 #13770


Gox game. Where the only winning move is to buy and hold.

Nah, for the game you will have to trade. If you dont amass enough trade fees, you will be penalized. Granted, with the price being as stable as it has been recently, the game wont be quite as exciting as it could be, but it might still be good fun when its done.
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March 18, 2013, 12:35:52 AM
 #13771


If you are all in, therefore cannot buy, and do not intend to sell, you have no share in deciding bitcoin's future. Your (in)action will not cause the price to do anything. You can just hope.

Not really. Someone deciding not to sell is effectively removing supply that would be there if they decided to sell instead. Price is determined by supply and demand. 100 BTC removed from supply is no different from 100 BTC added to demand in terms of the price action.
adamstgBit
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March 18, 2013, 12:58:54 AM
 #13772

dumb Bitcoiner rant, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5Lo30EC0IQ&feature=youtu.be   Tongue

Beta-coiner1
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March 18, 2013, 01:12:39 AM
 #13773

I wonder why the major walls only happen during 5 days of the week.

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nimda
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March 18, 2013, 01:28:46 AM
 #13774

I wonder why the major walls only happen during 5 days of the week.
Bitcoin may never sleep, but banks have a tendency to do so.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
Luno
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March 18, 2013, 01:35:54 AM
 #13775

I wonder why the major walls only happen during 5 days of the week.

They show when there is a risk of large movement. The risk is less in the weekends as fewer people are watching the number. If there suddently was some selling gaining momentum, buy walls would come up.

A lot of people are anticipating the effect of Coinlab opening the flood gate of bank transfers! If someone have knowledge of how much is pending at Gox as uncleared bank transfers, it's polite to have the $48 wall for newbs to buy into when their money clear.  If there was was no $48 wall, we would have an unfuled rocket at the apex of it's trajectory Monday morning. That would be scary to watch.

The price is held during this weekend also even if no walls are visible.


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oakpacific
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March 18, 2013, 02:46:42 AM
 #13776

FYI: network hasrate now over 50 TH/s.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
zyphus
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March 18, 2013, 03:13:45 AM
 #13777

yeah most of that hash rate is coming from the 1st shipments of AVALON ASIC's (China). They also selling about 7.5K coins before midnight(~ish~) PST unfortunately : / I will be asleep Zzzz.
zyphus
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March 18, 2013, 03:25:30 AM
 #13778

scratch that, post says they selling 17.5K coin : / I hate high rollers.
Also, damn double spending is killing the confidence from new investors WTF!! http://blockchain.info/double-spends
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March 18, 2013, 03:26:25 AM
 #13779

yeah most of that hash rate is coming from the 1st shipments of AVALON ASIC's (China). They also selling about 7.5K coins before midnight(~ish~) PST unfortunately : / I will be asleep Zzzz.

Where are you pulling this from? Link? Anecdotal evidence? A story you heard? Give us something.

Currently trying to learn ruby on rails - - coding is the future. The future is now.

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March 18, 2013, 03:31:58 AM
 #13780

scratch that, post says they selling 17.5K coin : / I hate high rollers.
Also, damn double spending is killing the confidence from new investors WTF!! http://blockchain.info/double-spends

I get the feeling from your edit that added on that bit about the blockchain that you are pulling the bit about ASIC operators selling off out of your ass.

Please, I invite you to prove me wrong.

Currently trying to learn ruby on rails - - coding is the future. The future is now.

Donations appreciated: 1JFQhMBERjQ6BBGof6YAGCx33SngK4R9Ag
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