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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652770 times)
Wekkel
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March 09, 2013, 03:06:24 PM
 #13021

Long term, I have trust in the Bitcoin concept (or: the concept of crypto currencies in general). But for the short term, I am reminded of what happened in 2011. It seemed as if the whole rally faded once headlines appeared in major MSM. That doesn't mean that it will be the same now, or that we will not go over $50 this time, but I am wary of the same thing happening again.

Indeed, better of just to accumulate at appropriate times and leave the ups and downs to others. A MACD cross through 0 on the daily has always been a good time to buy some more.

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Technomage
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March 09, 2013, 03:53:29 PM
 #13022

A fast rise will undoubtedly lead to a correction eventually, that is clear. It would defy all market behaviour in history if it didn't. However, the 2011 situation was different. First of all, the rise was pretty much all hype based on the idea of this new cryptocurrency. There was no economy to speak of, except Silk Road that had just started. There were literally only a few Bitcoin companies in the whole world, and merchants such as Alpaca Socks accepting bitcoins. Then the hype went down, and security problems ran rampant within the community, leading to a total crash.

We might be seeing a correction, but that is different from a total crash. Totally different. The Bitcoin economy today is 10 times more mature than it was during the 2011 hype. We have dozens of Bitcoin startups all over the world. Silk Road is huge compared to what it used to be. Bitcoin is becoming widely accepted online, for pretty much any service one can imagine. We have VC's and Hedge Funds starting to invest in bitcoins and Bitcoin companies. Security of Bitcoin exchanges, while not perfect, is at a very high level compared to the past.

Fear of a larger crash is, at this moment, entirely unfounded. It's the definition of FUD. A large majority of market players do know this, and they're simply figuring out how deep the correction will be. The backbone of the economy becomes stronger every day, leading to a higher bottom price. This doesn't mean we don't have significant corrections, the market can still go to an overdrive. There is always the point where it's too much, regardless of where we're at, but my personal opinion is that with what is going on in the economy, any price below $50 is not a bad entry point for buyers, unless they're thinking super short term.

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humanitee
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March 09, 2013, 03:56:51 PM
 #13023

A fast rise will undoubtedly lead to a correction eventually, that is clear. It would defy all market behaviour in history if it didn't. However, the 2011 situation was different. First of all, the rise was pretty much all hype based on the idea of this new cryptocurrency. There was no economy to speak of, except Silk Road that had just started. There were literally only a few Bitcoin companies in the whole world. Then the hype went down, and security problems ran rampant within the community, leading to a total crash.

We might be seeing a correction, but that is different from a total crash. Totally different. The Bitcoin economy today is 10 times more mature than it was during the 2011 hype. We have dozens of Bitcoin startups all over the world. Silk Road is huge compared to what it used to be. Bitcoin is becoming widely accepted in the Internet, for pretty much any service one can imagine. We have VC's and Hedge Funds starting to invest in bitcoins and Bitcoin companies. Security of Bitcoin exchanges, while not perfect, is at a very high level compared to the past.

Fear of a larger crash is, at this moment, entirely unfounded. It's the definition of FUD. A large majority of market players do know this, and they're simply figuring out how deep the correction will be. The backbone of the economy becomes stronger every day, leading to a higher bottom price. This doesn't mean we don't have significant corrections, the market can still go to an overdrive. There is always the point where it's too much, regardless of where we're at, but my personal opinion is that with what is going on in the economy, any price below $50 is not a bad entry point for buyers, unless they're thinking super short term.

+1, I see you're someone who understands.
mccorvic
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March 09, 2013, 04:35:28 PM
 #13024

Buy and hold.

If you must sell, you'd be incredibly stupid to do so under $46.

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humanitee
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March 09, 2013, 04:49:43 PM
 #13025

Buy and hold.

If you must sell, you'd be incredibly stupid to do so under $46.

I don't think it'd be incredibly stupid. Incredibly stupid was below $36 on the panic.
mccorvic
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March 09, 2013, 04:53:52 PM
 #13026

Buy and hold.

If you must sell, you'd be incredibly stupid to do so under $46.

I don't think it'd be incredibly stupid. Incredibly stupid was below $36 on the panic.


No, that was unforgivingly stupid.

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March 09, 2013, 05:07:41 PM
 #13027

Buy and hold.

If you must sell, you'd be incredibly stupid to do so under $46.

I don't think it'd be incredibly stupid. Incredibly stupid was below $36 on the panic.


No, that was unforgivingly stupid.


BITCOIN, BUY ME A CHICKEN SANDWICH
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March 09, 2013, 05:12:04 PM
 #13028


Bro, do you even blockchain?
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March 09, 2013, 05:16:03 PM
 #13029

How will the price react on the Butterfly Labs scam when everyone finds out, I'm wondering.

mccorvic
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March 09, 2013, 05:20:07 PM
 #13030

How will the price react on the Butterfly Labs scam when everyone finds out, I'm wondering.

It'll probably just suck for people who don't get an asci and things keep on trucking.  If anything, the last 3 months have shown the market is no longer at the whims of scardy-cats and poor investors.

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01BTC10
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March 09, 2013, 05:21:36 PM
 #13031

How will the price react on the Butterfly Labs scam when everyone finds out, I'm wondering.
They will panic buy BTC  Grin
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March 09, 2013, 05:23:22 PM
 #13032

There is always the point where it's too much, regardless of where we're at, but my personal opinion is that with what is going on in the economy, any price below $50 is not a bad entry point for buyers, unless they're thinking super short term.
Right now I think with all the confidence and hope generated by new startups and high-profile acceptors, a good estimate of a potentially stable value is no higher than $40. That sudden push from $40 to $47 was met with lots of resistance, so I think we need to give the market a couple of months to catch up to the fanboiz' hopes for $50 to become possible to reach and hold. How things play out until then is up to the bulls: they get overeager again and try to push too soon, they'll just generate another big correction and scare off some of this year's potential adopters. They take it slow and let it rise steadily, there'll be less uncertainty and we won't lose so many potential adopters along the way.

It's your call, bulls.

ineededausername
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March 09, 2013, 05:26:13 PM
 #13033

We're doing pretty well for the weekend... up $2.5 since yesterday Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
Technomage
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March 09, 2013, 05:32:15 PM
 #13034

I agree that stability is better for Bitcoin adoption in terms of it being used as a medium of exchange. However, many people are currently afraid that they lose on this great opportunity to buy bitcoins at a price which is likely very low in just a couple of years time. Thinking about what it is next month is short term thinking.

If $40 is a "sustainable price", then a speculative bubble right now would probably be more like $200. Not $45. I don't know what the sustainable price is, market will show us in time. I look at the 90d average price as a good indicator, right now it's at $21, give or take. We have no proof yet that $40 is sustainable, or even $30, although I believe that $30 is fairly sustainable at least.

In fact it looks like $40 is surprisingly strong as well, leading me to believe that $50 might not be such a boogieman as some believe. We'll see next week if $50 is broken or not. I wouldn't mind a period of stability, I just think the whole Bitcoin phenomenon is too heated for a stable period now.

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March 09, 2013, 05:34:45 PM
 #13035

How will the price react on the Butterfly Labs scam when everyone finds out, I'm wondering.

Negative.

1Pakis
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March 09, 2013, 05:55:09 PM
 #13036


Tips are welcome at this address 18DVZkpSwmejPjekX3QMKvRRtR8Bfx65LN.
drawingthesun
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March 09, 2013, 06:05:27 PM
 #13037

Lots of slippage free coins for anyone who is interested.

What does that mean? I don't understand, how could one take advantage and make money because of "slippage"

Cheers. Smiley
Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 09, 2013, 06:11:07 PM
 #13038

Slippage-free. You can buy large amounts at the wall price without having to pay more and more along the way as your own buying action drives up the price (a.k.a. slippage).
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March 09, 2013, 06:22:31 PM
 #13039

ie lots of liquidity for a large buyer. One has to wonder however if there are any bullets in the gun, being the weekend and all....

ineededausername
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March 09, 2013, 06:58:37 PM
 #13040

Trends right now are looking pretty bullish.  There were 60k BTC to $50 a day ago, now there are <40k BTC:


(BFL)^2 < 0
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