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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652327 times)
adamstgBit
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November 10, 2012, 12:50:15 AM
 #4701

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol


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November 10, 2012, 01:27:35 AM
 #4702

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol



I think miners are more pragmatic and logical then speculators. I say this through reading many many mining threads that a lot of miners do not see the huge value with btc in current bitcoin economy. We suck usd out non stop and never bring it back. This is prob due to us seeing it as a speculative business that requires roi, fixed costs, hardware assets, etc... People who buy btc to hopefully sell for more later are just looking for the bigger fool. Sounds harsh but it is basically true.  We have a plan if btc fails by selling assets and know we wont lose everything.  speculators in btc, not necessarily traders, those true believers may very well ride it down to pennies on the dollar. Or it could goto the moon. Miners want a fair return on investment and do not shoot for the moon. We are more reasonable and calculated based on possible outcomes.

So saying we are poor speculators is untrue. The amount of money i put in and my return is probably greater then yours. The turtle, boring turtle, can win the race over the rabid speculative rabbit.

:-)
adamstgBit
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November 10, 2012, 01:51:04 AM
 #4703

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol



I think miners are more pragmatic and logical then speculators. I say this through reading many many mining threads that a lot of miners do not see the huge value with btc in current bitcoin economy. We suck usd out non stop and never bring it back. This is prob due to us seeing it as a speculative business that requires roi, fixed costs, hardware assets, etc... People who buy btc to hopefully sell for more later are just looking for the bigger fool. Sounds harsh but it is basically true.  We have a plan if btc fails by selling assets and know we wont lose everything.  speculators in btc, not necessarily traders, those true believers may very well ride it down to pennies on the dollar. Or it could goto the moon. Miners want a fair return on investment and do not shoot for the moon. We are more reasonable and calculated based on possible outcomes.

So saying we are poor speculators is untrue. The amount of money i put in and my return is probably greater then yours. The turtle, boring turtle, can win the race over the rabid speculative rabbit.

:-)

what is the "current bitcoin economy"

did you factor in the 60 bitcoin i send as payment to my dad?
how about the 1 bitcoin i traded for 1 gram of weed?
how could you know, these trades never and will probably never hit the exchange, a lot of my trades didn't even hit the blockchain (Casascius coins to buy into friendly poker games).

I think everyone is totally underestimating the economy, because its not very big, and its spared thin through out the globe. So from any small shop's perceptive, bitcoin economy is very small, but small things add up quick ...

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November 10, 2012, 03:30:53 AM
 #4704


I'm pretty sure, a few big players have been selling their hoards looking to buy back cheaper.

ya GOOD LUCK!  Grin

I would advise all my bullish friends to practice patience and caution, we are likely to be hovering at these price for a long time, do not jump the gun, we all need to work together to make The Squeeze work well.

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November 10, 2012, 06:02:36 AM
 #4705

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol



I think miners are more pragmatic and logical then speculators. I say this through reading many many mining threads that a lot of miners do not see the huge value with btc in current bitcoin economy. We suck usd out non stop and never bring it back. This is prob due to us seeing it as a speculative business that requires roi, fixed costs, hardware assets, etc... People who buy btc to hopefully sell for more later are just looking for the bigger fool. Sounds harsh but it is basically true.  We have a plan if btc fails by selling assets and know we wont lose everything.  speculators in btc, not necessarily traders, those true believers may very well ride it down to pennies on the dollar. Or it could goto the moon. Miners want a fair return on investment and do not shoot for the moon. We are more reasonable and calculated based on possible outcomes.

So saying we are poor speculators is untrue. The amount of money i put in and my return is probably greater then yours. The turtle, boring turtle, can win the race over the rabid speculative rabbit.

:-)

what is the "current bitcoin economy"

did you factor in the 60 bitcoin i send as payment to my dad?
how about the 1 bitcoin i traded for 1 gram of weed?
how could you know, these trades never and will probably never hit the exchange, a lot of my trades didn't even hit the blockchain (Casascius coins to buy into friendly poker games).

I think everyone is totally underestimating the economy, because its not very big, and its spared thin through out the globe. So from any small shop's perceptive, bitcoin economy is very small, but small things add up quick ...

Small? It is tiny when one gambling site can make up a significant portion of transactions per day. Another good chunk of those transactions are pools, miners, and exchanges. What is left really? About 10k other transactions which still are mostly nothing much to get excited about. Lets be generous and say another 5k of transactions off the blockchain. So after all this time we are still at the point of 15k transactions per day yet somehow btc is worth 11ish each? Insanity.  5 is still too high. 10 million plus btc mined times 11 usd and we see 15k of transactions?

In my opinion 3000 transaction per day of quality examples of bitcoins use take place. 3 measily thousand.

And by quality i mean no silk road, no gambling, no pools, miners, exchanges, shuffling btc around to diff wallets, mixing stolen btc, testing/experimenting, speculation etc...  by quality i mean selling legal goods, pay for hire, etc...

So yea...   i do not see a huge value and others do too.  So far the growth of transactions has been in areas that are disappointing to say the least.

But hey.... As long as i can make a buck i am cool with it.
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November 10, 2012, 08:15:29 AM
 #4706

Small? It is tiny when one gambling site can make up a significant portion of transactions per day. Another good chunk of those transactions are pools, miners, and exchanges. What is left really? About 10k other transactions which still are mostly nothing much to get excited about. Lets be generous and say another 5k of transactions off the blockchain. So after all this time we are still at the point of 15k transactions per day yet somehow btc is worth 11ish each? Insanity.  5 is still too high. 10 million plus btc mined times 11 usd and we see 15k of transactions?

In my opinion 3000 transaction per day of quality examples of bitcoins use take place. 3 measily thousand.

And by quality i mean no silk road, no gambling, no pools, miners, exchanges, shuffling btc around to diff wallets, mixing stolen btc, testing/experimenting, speculation etc...  by quality i mean selling legal goods, pay for hire, etc...

So yea...   i do not see a huge value and others do too.  So far the growth of transactions has been in areas that are disappointing to say the least.

But hey.... As long as i can make a buck i am cool with it.


About a month ago I got to pay someone in Japan with bitcoins. I never thought I would meet anybody else who would take bitcoins, but I did. That is why I feel the bitcoin project will succeed, and that its just going to take some time.
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November 10, 2012, 08:18:04 AM
 #4707


by quality i mean selling legal goods, pay for hire, etc...

So yea...   i do not see a huge value and others do too.


Would you say the same about gold?

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proudhon
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November 10, 2012, 01:48:04 PM
 #4708

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol



I think miners are more pragmatic and logical then speculators. I say this through reading many many mining threads that a lot of miners do not see the huge value with btc in current bitcoin economy. We suck usd out non stop and never bring it back. This is prob due to us seeing it as a speculative business that requires roi, fixed costs, hardware assets, etc... People who buy btc to hopefully sell for more later are just looking for the bigger fool. Sounds harsh but it is basically true.  We have a plan if btc fails by selling assets and know we wont lose everything.  speculators in btc, not necessarily traders, those true believers may very well ride it down to pennies on the dollar. Or it could goto the moon. Miners want a fair return on investment and do not shoot for the moon. We are more reasonable and calculated based on possible outcomes.

So saying we are poor speculators is untrue. The amount of money i put in and my return is probably greater then yours. The turtle, boring turtle, can win the race over the rabid speculative rabbit.

:-)

what is the "current bitcoin economy"

did you factor in the 60 bitcoin i send as payment to my dad?
how about the 1 bitcoin i traded for 1 gram of weed?
how could you know, these trades never and will probably never hit the exchange, a lot of my trades didn't even hit the blockchain (Casascius coins to buy into friendly poker games).

I think everyone is totally underestimating the economy, because its not very big, and its spared thin through out the globe. So from any small shop's perceptive, bitcoin economy is very small, but small things add up quick ...

Small? It is tiny when one gambling site can make up a significant portion of transactions per day. Another good chunk of those transactions are pools, miners, and exchanges. What is left really? About 10k other transactions which still are mostly nothing much to get excited about. Lets be generous and say another 5k of transactions off the blockchain. So after all this time we are still at the point of 15k transactions per day yet somehow btc is worth 11ish each? Insanity.  5 is still too high. 10 million plus btc mined times 11 usd and we see 15k of transactions?

In my opinion 3000 transaction per day of quality examples of bitcoins use take place. 3 measily thousand.

And by quality i mean no silk road, no gambling, no pools, miners, exchanges, shuffling btc around to diff wallets, mixing stolen btc, testing/experimenting, speculation etc...  by quality i mean selling legal goods, pay for hire, etc...

So yea...   i do not see a huge value and others do too.  So far the growth of transactions has been in areas that are disappointing to say the least.

But hey.... As long as i can make a buck i am cool with it.


3000 transactions minus all the stuff you listed?  I think that's being very, very generous.  To be honest, I'd be surprised to learn it's more than 1000.
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November 10, 2012, 01:53:39 PM
 #4709

\...\
I would advise all my bullish friends to practice patience and caution, we are likely to be hovering at these price for a long time, do not jump the gun, we all need to work together to make The Squeeze work well.
You told a squeeze? Hmm .. The only true observation I made at the time of reading this forum - if all say "up, all the bulls, the squeeze, the moon, and so on" - then the only correct decision - to sell  Undecided

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November 10, 2012, 02:47:01 PM
 #4710

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol



I think miners are more pragmatic and logical then speculators. I say this through reading many many mining threads that a lot of miners do not see the huge value with btc in current bitcoin economy. We suck usd out non stop and never bring it back. This is prob due to us seeing it as a speculative business that requires roi, fixed costs, hardware assets, etc... People who buy btc to hopefully sell for more later are just looking for the bigger fool. Sounds harsh but it is basically true.  We have a plan if btc fails by selling assets and know we wont lose everything.  speculators in btc, not necessarily traders, those true believers may very well ride it down to pennies on the dollar. Or it could goto the moon. Miners want a fair return on investment and do not shoot for the moon. We are more reasonable and calculated based on possible outcomes.

So saying we are poor speculators is untrue. The amount of money i put in and my return is probably greater then yours. The turtle, boring turtle, can win the race over the rabid speculative rabbit.

:-)

what is the "current bitcoin economy"

did you factor in the 60 bitcoin i send as payment to my dad?
how about the 1 bitcoin i traded for 1 gram of weed?
how could you know, these trades never and will probably never hit the exchange, a lot of my trades didn't even hit the blockchain (Casascius coins to buy into friendly poker games).

I think everyone is totally underestimating the economy, because its not very big, and its spared thin through out the globe. So from any small shop's perceptive, bitcoin economy is very small, but small things add up quick ...

Small? It is tiny when one gambling site can make up a significant portion of transactions per day. Another good chunk of those transactions are pools, miners, and exchanges. What is left really? About 10k other transactions which still are mostly nothing much to get excited about. Lets be generous and say another 5k of transactions off the blockchain. So after all this time we are still at the point of 15k transactions per day yet somehow btc is worth 11ish each? Insanity.  5 is still too high. 10 million plus btc mined times 11 usd and we see 15k of transactions?

In my opinion 3000 transaction per day of quality examples of bitcoins use take place. 3 measily thousand.

And by quality i mean no silk road, no gambling, no pools, miners, exchanges, shuffling btc around to diff wallets, mixing stolen btc, testing/experimenting, speculation etc...  by quality i mean selling legal goods, pay for hire, etc...

So yea...   i do not see a huge value and others do too.  So far the growth of transactions has been in areas that are disappointing to say the least.

But hey.... As long as i can make a buck i am cool with it.


If i had more time and were sufficiently awake i may be able to adequately surmise all of the fail in this sentence, but alas i am off to get drunk on a boat. For now i will say this. Who is the authority on what is legal? Why? What defines "quality" use? As long as you can make a buck? How does one condescend and condone in the same paragraph?


Edit: I would also add this http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin. $5 btc would = operating at a loss for miners, reducing the strength of the network. Look at both sides of the coin.

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adamstgBit
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November 10, 2012, 03:16:29 PM
 #4711

 Roll Eyes

so let me get this right...

you think we need to have 10million BTC transacted every single day in the economy to support 10$?

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November 10, 2012, 03:38:10 PM
 #4712

Are you overlooking the value of having inaccessible money? Having secure funds locked away safely is a pretty good value in and of itself. So in calculating how much BTC is worth, perhaps you have to add in how much you would need to pay to otherwise put some money/gold/etc... somewhere that was impossible for the government/army/dictator/bankrobbers to get to.

That's a pretty valuable service in an of itself.

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November 10, 2012, 03:45:15 PM
 #4713

As a miner i am glad still above 10.
If i was a speculator i would be shocked if still above 10 by christmas.

i guess miners make for poor speculators then, i see that as a good sign  Smiley

It's hard to forget that every coin at some point belongs to a miner, I'm disappointed in you.

when miners sell thinking " muahahah FREE MONEY    ... minus electric bill i made profit Cheesy ",   I lol



I think miners are more pragmatic and logical then speculators. I say this through reading many many mining threads that a lot of miners do not see the huge value with btc in current bitcoin economy. We suck usd out non stop and never bring it back. This is prob due to us seeing it as a speculative business that requires roi, fixed costs, hardware assets, etc... People who buy btc to hopefully sell for more later are just looking for the bigger fool. Sounds harsh but it is basically true.  We have a plan if btc fails by selling assets and know we wont lose everything.  speculators in btc, not necessarily traders, those true believers may very well ride it down to pennies on the dollar. Or it could goto the moon. Miners want a fair return on investment and do not shoot for the moon. We are more reasonable and calculated based on possible outcomes.

So saying we are poor speculators is untrue. The amount of money i put in and my return is probably greater then yours. The turtle, boring turtle, can win the race over the rabid speculative rabbit.

:-)

what is the "current bitcoin economy"

did you factor in the 60 bitcoin i send as payment to my dad?
how about the 1 bitcoin i traded for 1 gram of weed?
how could you know, these trades never and will probably never hit the exchange, a lot of my trades didn't even hit the blockchain (Casascius coins to buy into friendly poker games).

I think everyone is totally underestimating the economy, because its not very big, and its spared thin through out the globe. So from any small shop's perceptive, bitcoin economy is very small, but small things add up quick ...

Small? It is tiny when one gambling site can make up a significant portion of transactions per day. Another good chunk of those transactions are pools, miners, and exchanges. What is left really? About 10k other transactions which still are mostly nothing much to get excited about. Lets be generous and say another 5k of transactions off the blockchain. So after all this time we are still at the point of 15k transactions per day yet somehow btc is worth 11ish each? Insanity.  5 is still too high. 10 million plus btc mined times 11 usd and we see 15k of transactions?

In my opinion 3000 transaction per day of quality examples of bitcoins use take place. 3 measily thousand.

And by quality i mean no silk road, no gambling, no pools, miners, exchanges, shuffling btc around to diff wallets, mixing stolen btc, testing/experimenting, speculation etc...  by quality i mean selling legal goods, pay for hire, etc...

So yea...   i do not see a huge value and others do too.  So far the growth of transactions has been in areas that are disappointing to say the least.

But hey.... As long as i can make a buck i am cool with it.


3000 transactions minus all the stuff you listed?  I think that's being very, very generous.  To be honest, I'd be surprised to learn it's more than 1000.

Why do you exclude real world goods and services that provide real value, like SR-txs, gambling, exchanging BTC for other currencies and even speculation and mining adds value to the system (liquidity for the markets and security for the network), not to speak of the others, that you nonchalantly excluded from your count. They are real txs because people care and derive value from them, so the do "count" and justify the price to some extent.

What makes up the current price is mainly speculation based on assumptions of future value. To give an example that hinges on the fact that I compare apples with pears: Most stocks are valued 5-20 times their yearly ROI by means of market capitalization (stock prize*all stocks in circulation). With companies like facebook that are overhyped its even 50-100 times that.
In case of bitcoin's value it would be something like 24 times the 5M BTC that are exchanged on a daily bases, which equals its market cap (11.XX USD*10.4M BTC) of 120M USD.

Someone who feels up to the challenge may correct this feeble calculation (probably chuck some more factors in, like coin velocity and amount of lost coins,..)
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November 10, 2012, 05:53:43 PM
 #4714

Something will happen for sure this november, whether that move is up or down, is not clear at all.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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November 10, 2012, 06:16:11 PM
 #4715



Winter is coming...

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November 10, 2012, 07:10:37 PM
 #4716

Something will happen for sure this november, whether that move is up or down, is not clear at all.
death cross is down

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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November 10, 2012, 08:18:31 PM
 #4717

c'mon baby, back down to 10.80...

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November 10, 2012, 09:07:56 PM
 #4718

Something will happen for sure this november, whether that move is up or down, is not clear at all.
death cross is down

thanks, i was unclear about what direction that might indicate   Roll Eyes

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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November 10, 2012, 11:20:02 PM
 #4719

Something will happen for sure this november, whether that move is up or down, is not clear at all.
death cross is down

thanks, i was unclear about what direction that might indicate   Roll Eyes
you are again incorrect, first you said "up or down" where there is no UP, now you say  "might indicate" again it indicate down, so there is incorrect to say "might indicate"

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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November 10, 2012, 11:46:31 PM
 #4720

If you are referring to a doji alas "death cross" that just indicates the end of a trend. How can you say it's the end of an uptrend... where is the uptrend right now I can't see it.
Unless you are referring to the long term trend...

Are you saying we are going below 2?

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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