Augur - a decentralized prediction market platform

[BitTradeSkeptic]

I don't know...I don't think they're really working on the project anymore.  The last thing I heard was that the guy who created the truthcoin concept that Augur is based upon quit being an adviser and declared the project a failure.  It's almost been a year and they've had 5 million dollars to work with....I'm pretty sure this project was just over marketed....I don't think they can build the platform they claimed they could build....not even with 5 million dollars.

We (the Augur developers) are still working on it.  I don't know how anyone who spends even 30 seconds looking at our project's Github could conclude that we've ceased work on the project; all 6 of our main repositories have been updated (most of them multiple times) over the past day.  The primary thing that 5 million dollars buys us is the freedom to take our time and really build a secure product.  If you rush your product, you get The DAO.

We fired Paul (the Truthcoin guy) from his position as advisor when we found out that he'd been secretly competing with us, as this was a significant, undisclosed conflict-of-interest.  FWIW, Augur has considerably more in common with the Schellingcoin and Princeton models than it does with Truthcoin.

I agree. This project was over hyped and the core developers left.  A The actual idea is not Augurs. They just caught the momentum with eth. A lot of people are selling their augur holdings.

There are two core developers (me and Joey Krug) and we're both still here.  Like most projects in this space, the "actual idea" behind Augur is a synthesis of a variety of concepts.  There is indeed a lively market (on Reddit) for anyone interested in buying/selling.

The idea that our project is "over hyped" is fascinating.  Where's the hype?  If all we do is marketing, then why am I (one of the core developers) on here responding to you?  Shouldn't we have a crack marketing team that handles this kind of stuff?  How is it that people have apparently gotten the idea that our project is dead, if we do so much marketing?

The truth is that Augur is (and always has been) a developer-led team, and we prefer to spend our time working on the product.  If you're truly concerned about our progress, I encourage you to look at our Github, and/or join our Slack.

I'm glad that I saw this post and that you are active. I'm new to the Cryptocurrency thing and came here because I got into the rabbit hole of decentralized PMs. Just read the case against Augur blog and the fact he didn't even mention Gnosis discredited a lot of what he said. I would like to know one thing, the reasoning behind Ethereum over Bitcoin. There seems to be a lot of criticism about this which is the biggest reason I haven't fully supported what you are doing.

The other question was what level of involvement Robin Hanson and Ron Bernstein have had in the project? I recently watched the video of Ron talking with someone from your team. His support is one of the other reasons I've been more interested in what you are doing versus Hivemind and Gnosis.

With some of the responses and posts I've read here, I find it commendable that you posted here and replied to everyone. I'd invite you to stop by the twoplustwo forums sometime, there's plenty of us who follow prediction markets and we've talked about Augur before. I think they would have some great questions and would be a much better environment if you want to communicate with PM users.

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[redsn0w]

New blog post :

 - http://blog.augur.net/2016/07/12/submit-your-ethereum-address-to-sale-augur-net/

[twostepsally]

The real predictions market...

Here is the gnosis interview

https://youtu.be/AKcd9YUeFD0

[tinybike]

I'm glad that I saw this post and that you are active. I'm new to the Cryptocurrency thing and came here because I got into the rabbit hole of decentralized PMs. Just read the case against Augur blog and the fact he didn't even mention Gnosis discredited a lot of what he said. I would like to know one thing, the reasoning behind Ethereum over Bitcoin. There seems to be a lot of criticism about this which is the biggest reason I haven't fully supported what you are doing.

Our reasoning for using Ethereum is explained in detail in this blog post.  Basically, Ethereum has three benefits: 1) Ethereum's smart contract system allowed us to focus on our business logic, 2) being on Ethereum allows us to easily integrate with other Ethereum apps, and 3) Ethereum's subcurrency API will allow Augur to be currency-agnostic.

I think it's important to distinguish Ethereum-as-a-development-platform (and blockchain) from Ether the crypto-token.  Ethereum is a tremendously useful development platform; ether is just a token which will be one of many crypto-tokens (including Bitcoin) that can be used on Augur.  Augur is intended to be currency-agnostic.  In fact, after we launch, one of the first major features we're planning to add is the ability to use bitcoins directly on Augur, via BTCRelay sidechain.

The other question was what level of involvement Robin Hanson and Ron Bernstein have had in the project? I recently watched the video of Ron talking with someone from your team. His support is one of the other reasons I've been more interested in what you are doing versus Hivemind and Gnosis.

We've talked to Robin Hanson a few times, and his advice was quite good, but overall he has not been too involved in the project.

Ron Bernstein has been very actively involved.  Joey and I have been meeting with Ron almost every week for the past 6 or 7 months, and Ron is intimately familiar with Augur at this point.  He's also on our Slack and regularly contributes to the discussion.  Over the months, we've incorporated a variety of Ron's suggestions into Augur.  His most visible contribution is the wholesale removal of the market scoring rule system and its replacement with a regular order book.  (MSRs have some nice theoretical properties but empirically don't work so well, so we ended up replacing the MSR with a regular order book, which works much better.)  Ron and Joey presented together last month at the NYC Ethereum Meetup -- if you click through that link, there's video of the event posted on Youtube!

[razdva]

Can someone explain me, how will be work the voting system if we will be have thousands markets per day? Does this means that ultimately determine the outcome of a separate event will be several holders of REP?

[tinybike]

Can someone explain me, how will be work the voting system if we will be have thousands markets per day? Does this means that ultimately determine the outcome of a separate event will be several holders of REP?

This is a good/important question.  The short answer is, all Rep-holders will not have to vote on every event, as this would of course not scale!  Instead, the number of reporters required to vote on an event scales with the volume traded in the event's market.  More volume traded = more reports needed.  Specific reporters are assigned to events at random, weighted by their Rep holdings.  For details, please see Joey's in-depth blog post on scaling Augur.

[razdva]

nstead, the number of reporters required to vote on an event scales with the volume traded in the event's market.  More volume traded = more reports needed.  Specific reporters are assigned to events at random, weighted by their Rep holdings.  For details, please see Joey's in-depth blog post on scaling Augur.

Understand it, but... An example. We have 2000 rep holders and 10mln events to reporting period. If we take 100 report per 1 holders, we will have 40 holders per 1 events, with different amount of rep. So it will be very centralization and unreliably. Also if it will be not high liquid market, so reporters be a less then 40 per one events?
What if market itself will decide the result of events? If event for a long time traded on liquid market  with the odds close to 100%, this market outcome may be determined without the participation of reporters with same 100% accuracy. Because It will be infinitely costly bet against events, whose outcome is already known
I will try to read blog post, but not native language

[uzbznww7em2muts]

Can someone explain me, how will be work the voting system if we will be have thousands markets per day? Does this means that ultimately determine the outcome of a separate event will be several holders of REP?

It could NOT work! Here you can find more information why: http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/

[razdva]

Can someone explain me, how will be work the voting system if we will be have thousands markets per day? Does this means that ultimately determine the outcome of a separate event will be several holders of REP?

It could NOT work! Here you can find more information why: http://bitcoinhivemind.com/blog/case-against-augur/

cant read big english text

[tinybike]

Understand it, but... An example. We have 2000 rep holders and 10mln events to reporting period. If we take 100 report per 1 holders, we will have 40 holders per 1 events, with different amount of rep. So it will be very centralization and unreliably. Also if it will be not high liquid market, so reporters be a less then 40 per one events?
What if market itself will decide the result of events? If event for a long time traded on liquid market  with the odds close to 100%, this market outcome may be determined without the participation of reporters with same 100% accuracy. Because It will be infinitely costly bet against events, whose outcome is already known
I will try to read blog post, but not native language

I'm not sure I understand your question.  Are you asking whether there will usually be a lot of reporters for each event?  The answer is, it depends -- the number of reports (rep) assigned to each event depends on the volume in that event's market.  Reporting also has two "backstops" to make sure events resolve correctly:

The first is that after reporting, events' results can be appealed by posting a bond, which re-submits the event for reporting, this time to all reporters.  If the second result is the same as the original, then the bond is lost.  If the second result is different, then the bond poster gets their bond back, plus Rep from the reporters who reported incorrectly the first time.

The second is (if the first backstop still gets the answer incorrect) that any Rep-holder can pay to "fork" Rep, which splits Rep into two classes.  This works as follows:

In one class the reported outcome for whatever event was the cause of dispute is said to be right, and rep is redistributed accordingly. 

In the other class/branch, the event is readjudicated and remove the outcome on the pre fork branch as a possible reporting choice, then rep is redistributed as normal, except people who said the original outcome in the original fork lose rep. 

Note: Whichever outcome was truly the correct one would determine which branch had rep that actually held value.  This would be akin to a Bitcoin hard fork scenario.  The winning fork, of course, would be the one with the most voluminous markets, which would be determined by the fork that represented reality, which would have a higher market cap.  Markets go to the most popular fork by default after 2 months.

You can see the nuts-and-bolts of the 2nd backstop on the forking.se contract.

[voteformeg]

REP purchased with Bitcoin or Altcoins will be associated with the Ethereum address set here.

You may change your payout address at any time up until the official launch of Augur. We will notify you prior to this and confirm this address.


13790af6ce6d2725ac6dc13df0??
Verandering
If you bought in with Ether, you do not need to set a separate payout address. Your payout will be sent automatically to the address(es) you bought in with. If you bought in with Ether and want your REP sent to an address different than the one you sent your Ether from, please contact us!


All i have is this etheradress given by the ico-site and an UTC_ , is this enough or do i have to create a ethereumwallet online and put that into icoacount?

[redsn0w]

I've created a telegram chat group, if you want join us at :





https://telegram.me/AugurProject

If the augur team wants to join, I can add as many admin you want (without any problem).

[MiningSev0]

REP purchased with Bitcoin or Altcoins will be associated with the Ethereum address set here.

You may change your payout address at any time up until the official launch of Augur. We will notify you prior to this and confirm this address.


13790af6ce6d2725ac6dc13df0??
Verandering
If you bought in with Ether, you do not need to set a separate payout address. Your payout will be sent automatically to the address(es) you bought in with. If you bought in with Ether and want your REP sent to an address different than the one you sent your Ether from, please contact us!


All i have is this etheradress given by the ico-site and an UTC_ , is this enough or do i have to create a ethereumwallet online and put that into icoacount?

Yes, this should be fine.
Just try this:
Download the latest Version of Mist.
Start it, and let it Create the /Appdata/Roaming/... Folder.
Now Stick your json File (UTC_...) into the keystore folder.
Start Ethereum wallet again.
The wallet should appear now inside Mist.
Now, send a small amount of Ether (maybe from shapeshift) directly to this adress.
Then send them or a Part of it back to any adress you would, to test you password.
If it works you could leave anything as it is.

Otherwise you should Create a new adress (best way would be a new clean mist wallet) and Change the adress in the sale website.

[exscudo]

Hi Augur,

I really loved your project. I couldn't find any info on ur marketing plan - could u give me the link if u have any? And one more question - how much time did u need to make up the FAQ page? It is informative and elaborated, well done =)

[redsn0w]

[josegines]

@Redsn0w, but in order to display the token in our wallet we need some data, when will they be provided?

[redsn0w]

@Redsn0w, but in order to display the token in our wallet we need some data, when will they be provided?

Yeah you will need to watch the contract (token contract address, json ....) I'm sure they will provide all these informations when augur will be launched.

[Financisto]

Interesting idea that (maybe somehow) could be applied to Augur's platform once it's launched:

Hurricane Risk Landfall Option – HuRLO^TM:

http://www.weatherrisksolutions.com/faq.php

I could even see that as a (weird) kind of insurance for natural disasters...

[tobeaj2mer01]

What is the status now, when will it list on Exchange except https://gatecoin.com/.

[tobeaj2mer01]

It seems Augur has started to distribute REP token, correct?