The difficulty HAS BEEN REDUCED!!!!

[abyrnes81]

Interesting thing , but  I don't think this is the first time that the diff. has been reduced ? Or am I wrong ?

You are correct, but it's the first time we've seen a decrease in almost two years.

Also you're right , do we know what has reduced the diff ? Or are only a lot of *home-miners* that have turned off their hardware machine ?

[TracerX]

Interesting thing , but  I don't think this is the first time that the diff. has been reduced ? Or am I wrong ?

You are correct, but it's the first time we've seen a decrease in almost two years.

Also you're right , do we know what has reduced the diff ? Or are only a lot of *home-miners* that have turned off their hardware machine ?

I'm under the impression that the general consensus is that the current BTC price has slowed the number of new units coming online.  There seems to be plenty of stock available (from both BM and SP) on shelves now, which leads me to believe that sales may have started to slow.  Combined that with the fact that some miners, hobbyist or professionals, may be turning off some of the 1WGh machines in their possession and you've got a solid case against difficulty rising.

It could also be that miners are waiting to buy until new products are announced with more power efficient chips.

[thefunkybits]

Hopefully the difficulty will last few more months. I am sick of seeing the difficulty halt for 2 weeks and jump even more then the last month added up.

It looks like it may remain low, or even decrease again in seven days.  That said, there's no telling when a new mine will come online.

The last time difficulty decreased it slumped for about 6 months, Maybe if the price picks back up we'll get another boost in hashrate

[davejh]

Hopefully the difficulty will last few more months. I am sick of seeing the difficulty halt for 2 weeks and jump even more then the last month added up.

It looks like it may remain low, or even decrease again in seven days.  That said, there's no telling when a new mine will come online.

The last time difficulty decreased it slumped for about 6 months, Maybe if the price picks back up we'll get another boost in hashrate

Almost certainly. I forecast a significant slowdown in the hash rate expansion back in April, which to be fair wasn't as accurate as it should have been because I overestimated the cost of wholesale hashing and electricity (http://hashingit.com/analysis/24-megawatts-of-mining), but the model was essentially correct (I now have a much more accurate model). The hash rate expansion is pretty-much funded as a large fraction of the USD-denominated Bitcoin mining reward. This has dropped off significantly recently because the hash rate has slowed down (so we're finding nearer 144 blocks per day instead of > 160) and because of the BTC:USD price.

At a given BTC price there's a steady state where most of the money ends up going to hosting, maintenance, electricity costs - essentially all opex. That shifts when new hardware comes online that dramatically reduces operating costs and causes older equipment to be taken offline. 16 nm ASICs are probably the next such technology shift so I wouldn't expect to see much change until then if the BTC price remains constant.

The model predicted that when we hit a steady state where hardware margins had been tightly squeezed then we'd see about a 2x per year increase in hash rate. If we take that 2x per year then that works out at a mean difficulty increase of 2.6% each time for a year. Given the noise in the statistics for hash rate estimates then that would typically mean seeing difficulty changes of between -2.4% and 7.6% about 90% of the time. Now of course the real world won't work quite that predictably but the trend should be reasonably consistent.

What the model can't tell you is what will happen to the BTC price. If it jumps 2x then things will go mad for a few months until the hash rate catches up - in fact it would more than double; older, less power efficient hardware would be taken offline faster as people sought to use their available power more efficiently, but then new power and hashing would come online too. If the prices drops 2x then new investments cease and older equipment goes offline a little quicker but most of the hash rate is probably now more power efficient and so the hash rate wouldn't halve.

[yenzae0215]

Interesting thing , but  I don't think this is the first time that the diff. has been reduced ? Or am I wrong ?

You are correct, but it's the first time we've seen a decrease in almost two years.

Also you're right , do we know what has reduced the diff ? Or are only a lot of *home-miners* that have turned off their hardware machine ?

maybe the number of miners has been decreased?

[DrG]

Basically it has been sustained unrelenting growth ever since the 1/2ing back in the end of 2012.  Don't look at the difficulty back then, it will make you cry.

[paradoxum]

Basically it has been sustained unrelenting growth ever since the 1/2ing back in the end of 2012.  Don't look at the difficulty back then, it will make you cry.

Don't remind me.  The last 2 years have been far worse to me in BTC than the 2 prior to that.

[RD965]

Basically it has been sustained unrelenting growth ever since the 1/2ing back in the end of 2012.  Don't look at the difficulty back then, it will make you cry.

I dont think the diff was lowering before 2012, its always going up (good for us people hello? There is 21m total)

We just hope the future make us cry on happyness more than the past 

[DrG]

Basically it has been sustained unrelenting growth ever since the 1/2ing back in the end of 2012.  Don't look at the difficulty back then, it will make you cry.

I dont think the diff was lowering before 2012, its always going up (good for us people hello? There is 21m total)

We just hope the future make us cry on happyness more than the past 

It went down several times in 2012.  In fact when BTC crashed to $2 in early 2012 difficulty went back to 1 million before bouncing back towards the end of the year even with the Pirate scandal.

[oblixster]

Very marginal reduction, hope to enjoy it for a few weeks before more profitable hardware hits the market and it starts increasing again

[Soros Shorts]

I'm kind of happy that it's been a while since we've seen those annoying mining calculator predictions based on the assumption of an exponentially increasing hash rate that goes on forever.

[gkv9]

I'm kind of happy that it's been a while since we've seen those annoying mining calculator predictions based on the assumption of an exponentially increasing hash rate that goes on forever.

But I would like to know whether the calculations shown by different mining calculators does have any significance in them or they are worth nothing? Except difficulty, is everything that's predicted there, true?

[TracerX]

I'm kind of happy that it's been a while since we've seen those annoying mining calculator predictions based on the assumption of an exponentially increasing hash rate that goes on forever.

But I would like to know whether the calculations shown by different mining calculators does have any significance in them or they are worth nothing? Except difficulty, is everything that's predicted there, true?

Well, the only real variable is difficulty and mining uptime.  If your device (with known output and power costs) stays up an average of 95% of the time, then the real variable you have to consider is difficulty.  So most mining calculators are correct, but guessing the difficulty is just that, a guess.

Cheers.

[GigaBit]

Again today

I'm liking that PayCoin now, looks like it's relieving some much of the excess tension in the Bitcoin network.

Also looks like it will go down again, it's already set for a 1.33% decrease next time (@11AM -6GMT) too.

[ChuckBuck]

Hmm two difficulty reductions in a row.  Could this be a trend?

Difficulty History

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Dec 17 2014	39,457,671,307	-1.37%	282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014	40,007,470,271	-0.73%	286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014	40,300,030,328	1.76%	288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014	39,603,666,252	10.05%	283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014	35,985,640,265	2.81%	257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014	35,002,482,026	0.98%	250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014	34,661,425,924	16.20%	248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014	29,829,733,124	8.75%	213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014	27,428,630,902	15.03%	196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014	23,844,670,039	20.86%	170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014	19,729,645,941	5.30%	141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014	18,736,441,558	8.08%	134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014	17,336,316,979	3.08%	124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014	16,818,461,371	24.93%	120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014	13,462,580,115	14.51%	96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014	11,756,551,917	12.44%	84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014	10,455,720,138	18.10%	74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014	8,853,416,309	10.66%	63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014	8,000,872,136	14.64%	57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014	6,978,842,650	14.04%	49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014	6,119,726,089	22.23%	43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014	5,006,860,589	17.80%	35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014	4,250,217,920	11.39%	30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014	3,815,723,799	21.92%	27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014	3,129,573,175	19.39%	22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014	2,621,404,453	19.49%	18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014	2,193,847,870	22.59%	15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014	1,789,546,951	26.16%	12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014	1,418,481,395	20.12%	10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013	1,180,923,195	30.01%	8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013	908,350,862	28.41%	6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013	707,408,283	16.07%	5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013	609,482,680	19.29%	4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013	510,929,738	30.70%	3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013	390,928,788	46.02%	2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013	267,731,249	41.45%	1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013	189,281,249	27.19%	1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013	148,819,200	32.13%	1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013	112,628,549	29.56%	806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013	86,933,018	32.22%	622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013	65,750,060	29.40%	470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013	50,810,339	35.88%	363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013	37,392,766	19.63%	267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013	31,256,961	19.47%	223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013	26,162,876	22.63%	187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013	21,335,329	10.32%	152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013	19,339,258	23.92%	138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013	15,605,633	28.41%	111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013	12,153,412	8.64%	86,998 GH/s

Hoping for a double digit difficulty decrease (say that 5 times fast), so I can start mining with my Surface Pro 3!  Just playin', but maybe not really.   

[GigaBit]

Look at the hash power at XPY from CoinWarz M8

There's nearly 100PH/s there and 250PH/s @ Bitcoin

Hmm two difficulty reductions in a row.  Could this be a trend?

Difficulty History

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Dec 17 2014	39,457,671,307	-1.37%	282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014	40,007,470,271	-0.73%	286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014	40,300,030,328	1.76%	288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014	39,603,666,252	10.05%	283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014	35,985,640,265	2.81%	257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014	35,002,482,026	0.98%	250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014	34,661,425,924	16.20%	248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014	29,829,733,124	8.75%	213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014	27,428,630,902	15.03%	196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014	23,844,670,039	20.86%	170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014	19,729,645,941	5.30%	141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014	18,736,441,558	8.08%	134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014	17,336,316,979	3.08%	124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014	16,818,461,371	24.93%	120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014	13,462,580,115	14.51%	96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014	11,756,551,917	12.44%	84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014	10,455,720,138	18.10%	74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014	8,853,416,309	10.66%	63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014	8,000,872,136	14.64%	57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014	6,978,842,650	14.04%	49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014	6,119,726,089	22.23%	43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014	5,006,860,589	17.80%	35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014	4,250,217,920	11.39%	30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014	3,815,723,799	21.92%	27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014	3,129,573,175	19.39%	22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014	2,621,404,453	19.49%	18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014	2,193,847,870	22.59%	15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014	1,789,546,951	26.16%	12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014	1,418,481,395	20.12%	10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013	1,180,923,195	30.01%	8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013	908,350,862	28.41%	6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013	707,408,283	16.07%	5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013	609,482,680	19.29%	4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013	510,929,738	30.70%	3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013	390,928,788	46.02%	2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013	267,731,249	41.45%	1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013	189,281,249	27.19%	1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013	148,819,200	32.13%	1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013	112,628,549	29.56%	806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013	86,933,018	32.22%	622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013	65,750,060	29.40%	470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013	50,810,339	35.88%	363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013	37,392,766	19.63%	267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013	31,256,961	19.47%	223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013	26,162,876	22.63%	187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013	21,335,329	10.32%	152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013	19,339,258	23.92%	138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013	15,605,633	28.41%	111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013	12,153,412	8.64%	86,998 GH/s

Hoping for a double digit difficulty decrease (say that 5 times fast), so I can start mining with my Surface Pro 3!  Just playin', but maybe not really.   

[TracerX]

Look at the hash power at XPY from CoinWarz M8

There's nearly 100PH/s there and 250PH/s @ Bitcoin

Hmm two difficulty reductions in a row.  Could this be a trend?

Difficulty History

Code:

Date	Difficulty	Change	Hash Rate
Dec 17 2014	39,457,671,307	-1.37%	282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014	40,007,470,271	-0.73%	286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014	40,300,030,328	1.76%	288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014	39,603,666,252	10.05%	283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014	35,985,640,265	2.81%	257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014	35,002,482,026	0.98%	250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014	34,661,425,924	16.20%	248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014	29,829,733,124	8.75%	213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014	27,428,630,902	15.03%	196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014	23,844,670,039	20.86%	170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014	19,729,645,941	5.30%	141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014	18,736,441,558	8.08%	134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014	17,336,316,979	3.08%	124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014	16,818,461,371	24.93%	120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014	13,462,580,115	14.51%	96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014	11,756,551,917	12.44%	84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014	10,455,720,138	18.10%	74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014	8,853,416,309	10.66%	63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014	8,000,872,136	14.64%	57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014	6,978,842,650	14.04%	49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014	6,119,726,089	22.23%	43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014	5,006,860,589	17.80%	35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014	4,250,217,920	11.39%	30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014	3,815,723,799	21.92%	27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014	3,129,573,175	19.39%	22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014	2,621,404,453	19.49%	18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014	2,193,847,870	22.59%	15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014	1,789,546,951	26.16%	12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014	1,418,481,395	20.12%	10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013	1,180,923,195	30.01%	8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013	908,350,862	28.41%	6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013	707,408,283	16.07%	5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013	609,482,680	19.29%	4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013	510,929,738	30.70%	3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013	390,928,788	46.02%	2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013	267,731,249	41.45%	1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013	189,281,249	27.19%	1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013	148,819,200	32.13%	1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013	112,628,549	29.56%	806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013	86,933,018	32.22%	622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013	65,750,060	29.40%	470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013	50,810,339	35.88%	363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013	37,392,766	19.63%	267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013	31,256,961	19.47%	223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013	26,162,876	22.63%	187,281 GH/s
Jun 29 2013	21,335,329	10.32%	152,724 GH/s
Jun 16 2013	19,339,258	23.92%	138,436 GH/s
Jun 05 2013	15,605,633	28.41%	111,709 GH/s
May 25 2013	12,153,412	8.64%	86,998 GH/s

Hoping for a double digit difficulty decrease (say that 5 times fast), so I can start mining with my Surface Pro 3!  Just playin', but maybe not really.   

We'll be getting that hash back in the BTC network in the next day or so, rental rates have plummeted in the last 12 hours.

[SMB-2525]

But I would like to know whether the calculations shown by different mining calculators does have any significance in them or they are worth nothing? Except difficulty, is everything that's predicted there, true?

This one has most of the knobs you need.
http://aleks1k.github.io/bitcoin-calculator/
My spreadsheet has the ability to set the difficulty and duration for each period so it has a couple more knobs.

[Bananana]

Although the difficulty has been reduced but bitcoin dropped so much. At the end, profitability drop again

[GigaBit]

Although the difficulty has been reduced but bitcoin dropped so much. At the end, profitability drop again

True that... on personal mining... you can make that hashing power make a lot more than what the pool pays you.

However, Bitcoin's / cryptos are an educated risk taker's game. 

It's like gold mining, even though you lease a claim with proven gold on it, don't mean you'll get any of it, if you get any at all.

Claim owner ain't responsible if you go home broke, you failed to plan.

Then the gold buyer takes a cut that can go up to 10%...

Master Gold Mining, you'll master Bitcoin Mining a lot faster, that's a guarantee...