The difficulty HAS BEEN REDUCED!!!!

[btckold24]

we need difficulty to keep dropping. Hopefully it will spark these asic developers to actually make a machine that isnt total junk after 3-5 months

[RD965]

Its just gawminers, calm everyone

[lightfoot]

I think the problem is mining farms with 2-3w/gh equipment were holding on for a bit but now can't mine at a loss. Couple that with very little real capacity coming online and diffciulty goes down.

I wonder if the "new chips" will be real, will come out on time, or are just more vaporware. There is a difference between what a chip can do in a lab as opposed to on a real world system.

[nocroom]

we need difficulty to keep dropping. Hopefully it will spark these asic developers to actually make a machine that isnt total junk after 3-5 months

why would they, keeps you coming back for more

$$$$$$

[UnlikelyStory]

new blocks were taking way too long lately...

[GigaBit]

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:   37,161,354,884 (-5.82%)
Adjust time:   After 1287 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):   262,677,817 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:5 (5.7 minutes ago)

Shakes magic 8 ball - all signs point to yes.

[RD965]

Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:   37,161,354,884 (-5.82%)
Adjust time:   After 1287 Blocks, About 9.6 days
Hashrate(?):   262,677,817 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes
3 blocks: 32.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:5 (5.7 minutes ago)

Shakes magic 8 ball - all signs point to yes.

You know thats always an estimate right?

[lightfoot]

In the absence of a major disruption it tends to be pretty accurate. Still, a 5% drop is not going to erase the 10-20% runups we kept having every 2 weeks. That was beyond crazy.

Will be interesting to see what happens. Aside from all the ponzi scheme "cloud mining" things imploding, has there been any news about major mining farms going away/under/whatever?

[RD965]

In the absence of a major disruption it tends to be pretty accurate. Still, a 5% drop is not going to erase the 10-20% runups we kept having every 2 weeks. That was beyond crazy.

Will be interesting to see what happens. Aside from all the ponzi scheme "cloud mining" things imploding, has there been any news about major mining farms going away/under/whatever?

Dont be confused theres new farms everyday, and new businesses built around mining, it just goes fast and sometimes a relatively big hasher goes obsolete or runs onto problems and they have to stop, but its just a momentum thing, its going to keep going up im afraid 

[lightfoot]

True true, and due to the magic of arbitage it is simply impossible to make profits mining. I keep telling people that and they just don't seem to get it. You may have a short term advantage for a bit as you roll out a new technology but because the cost of entry is low someone else will build the same thing and profits will go back to zero. It is a pure and simple zero sum game(*).

It's weird. Right now I'm guessing people overshot and are now taking losses. You can mine at a loss for a bit, but since power costs are real you eventually either have to pay for it or come up with a ponzi scheme. Most people will drop out, the schemers will keep difficulty artifically high till it collapses and things drop.

That might be what's happening here. Time will tell....

(*) There might be a way out with transaction fees, I'm not sure because as the fees go up more people mine and you're back to a zero-sum problem. Hm.

[RD965]

True true, and due to the magic of arbitage it is simply impossible to make profits mining. I keep telling people that and they just don't seem to get it. You may have a short term advantage for a bit as you roll out a new technology but because the cost of entry is low someone else will build the same thing and profits will go back to zero. It is a pure and simple zero sum game(*).

It's weird. Right now I'm guessing people overshot and are now taking losses. You can mine at a loss for a bit, but since power costs are real you eventually either have to pay for it or come up with a ponzi scheme. Most people will drop out, the schemers will keep difficulty artifically high till it collapses and things drop.

That might be what's happening here. Time will tell....

(*) There might be a way out with transaction fees, I'm not sure because as the fees go up more people mine and you're back to a zero-sum problem. Hm.

Well im sorry mate but youre not really on the numbers if youre saying that lol

Mining is not profitable dice VAYA PAVO 

[lightfoot]

Well im sorry mate but youre not really on the numbers if youre saying that lol

Mining is not profitable dice VAYA PAVO  

It's an economics thing: Bitcoin mining is what we would call a "perfect marketplace" with what is pretty close to perfect competition. According to Wikipedia this is:

    Perfect market information (Yep, Bitcoin is that)
    No participant with market power to set prices (Correct, it's a pure commodity)
    Non intervention by governments (They can try :-)
    No barriers to entry or exit (With mining "contracts" and cheap hardware this is so)
    Equal access to factors of production (We all have power and math)
    Profit maximization (Everyone is going for max profit)
    No Externalities

The best you can hope for is "normal profits" which is just enough to keep people in the business. Once again WP has it right:

This attribute of perfect markets has profound political and economic implications, as many participants assume or are taught that the purpose of the market is to enable participants to maximize profits. It is not. The purpose of the market is to efficiently allocate resources and to maximize the welfare of consumers and producers alike. The market therefore regards excess profits, or economic rents, as a signal of inefficiency, that is of market failure, which is to say, not achieving a Pareto optimum.

That is *exactly* what mining is doing. Any excess in short term profits will be met by more people entering to hash. So if you go in thinking you will make a "lot of money", it's probably not going to happen :-)

The best that happens is you make opportunity profit, which is just enough to stick around instead of saying "fuck it" and doing something else. However that's in an irrational market. Think about how many people go on about "martingale" betting "systems" and you will realize that the market is not rational.

It's still fun to do. What is concerning me though is that if mining power is concentrated in a few locations, govts can start to apply pressure on those locations and knock bitcoin out of whack. From a govt point of view, the fewer miners, the fewer (but larger) farms the better. This happened with ISP's (so much easier for the NSA to put a tap in a big ISP pipe than a lot of little ones).

I worry it will happen to Bitcoin. I really do.

[RD965]

Well im sorry mate but youre not really on the numbers if youre saying that lol

Mining is not profitable dice VAYA PAVO  

It's an economics thing: Bitcoin mining is what we would call a "perfect marketplace" with what is pretty close to perfect competition. According to Wikipedia this is:

    Perfect market information (Yep, Bitcoin is that)
    No participant with market power to set prices (Correct, it's a pure commodity)
    Non intervention by governments (They can try :-)
    No barriers to entry or exit (With mining "contracts" and cheap hardware this is so)
    Equal access to factors of production (We all have power and math)
    Profit maximization (Everyone is going for max profit)
    No Externalities

The best you can hope for is "normal profits" which is just enough to keep people in the business. Once again WP has it right:

This attribute of perfect markets has profound political and economic implications, as many participants assume or are taught that the purpose of the market is to enable participants to maximize profits. It is not. The purpose of the market is to efficiently allocate resources and to maximize the welfare of consumers and producers alike. The market therefore regards excess profits, or economic rents, as a signal of inefficiency, that is of market failure, which is to say, not achieving a Pareto optimum.

That is *exactly* what mining is doing. Any excess in short term profits will be met by more people entering to hash. So if you go in thinking you will make a "lot of money", it's probably not going to happen :-)

The best that happens is you make opportunity profit, which is just enough to stick around instead of saying "fuck it" and doing something else. However that's in an irrational market. Think about how many people go on about "martingale" betting "systems" and you will realize that the market is not rational.

It's still fun to do. What is concerning me though is that if mining power is concentrated in a few locations, govts can start to apply pressure on those locations and knock bitcoin out of whack. From a govt point of view, the fewer miners, the fewer (but larger) farms the better. This happened with ISP's (so much easier for the NSA to put a tap in a big ISP pipe than a lot of little ones).

I worry it will happen to Bitcoin. I really do.

What is all this bullshit? Were talking if mining is profitable right? Well im telling you it is, and this is about finance AND economics. The best wealth managers in the world yield about 6-7% a year, and thats the best investment you can find anywhere, that is not a ponzi scheme of course.

So check some prices, choose a place in the world with cheap electricity, make a bulk buy and setup a farm! And enjoy the returns from your fiat thanks to price going up compensating any possible loss due to diff!

Theres no business in the world like mining, dont be a fool 

[lightfoot]

What is all this bullshit? Were talking if mining is profitable right? Well im telling you it is, and this is about finance AND economics. The best wealth managers in the world yield about 6-7% a year, and thats the best investment you can find anywhere, that is not a ponzi scheme of course.

So check some prices, choose a place in the world with cheap electricity, make a bulk buy and setup a farm! And enjoy the returns from your fiat thanks to price going up compensating any possible loss due to diff!

Theres no business in the world like mining, dont be a fool 

That "bullshit" is basic economic facts. It's ok, this is good to know and adds to my understanding of "why things are". I mean you realize that if you think the price of bitcoin is going up it's easier to just buy the stuff than mine...

Me, I mine because I am too god-damn lazy to figure out how to buy it. Such is life. :-)

[RD965]

What is all this bullshit? Were talking if mining is profitable right? Well im telling you it is, and this is about finance AND economics. The best wealth managers in the world yield about 6-7% a year, and thats the best investment you can find anywhere, that is not a ponzi scheme of course.

So check some prices, choose a place in the world with cheap electricity, make a bulk buy and setup a farm! And enjoy the returns from your fiat thanks to price going up compensating any possible loss due to diff!

Theres no business in the world like mining, dont be a fool 

That "bullshit" is basic economic facts. It's ok, this is good to know and adds to my understanding of "why things are". I mean you realize that if you think the price of bitcoin is going up it's easier to just buy the stuff than mine...

Me, I mine because I am too god-damn lazy to figure out how to buy it. Such is life. :-)

You either produce the gold or buy the gold that is been produced

Make things simple and have a macroeconomic perspective and youll be right!

I personally prefer to produce 

[Bananana]

I believe this hash rate reduce is just temporary, look at S5. Batch 1 just come out for sale and its sold out in a day. Still a lot of miners buying hardware...

[qs.lab]

Its just gawminers, calm everyone

cool!

[crazyearner]

Will be good to see continued diff de crease but to be honest I doubt it will come to a point where it will be worth mining as right now prices worthless diff too high unless you got like 1PH of mining equipment and free energy to mine with or very cheap energy to make it worth while. Ascis killed sha coins too fast and bigger units coming out I dont see it profitable unless theirs some massive price increases in BTC to sustain it.

[Bananana]

What just happened? https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty, network hashrate suddenly shot to the roof and the prediction has change from negative to positive.

Is it due to S5?

[crazyearner]

What just happened? https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty, network hashrate suddenly shot to the roof and the prediction has change from negative to positive.

Is it due to S5?

More than likely due to them coming online and other equipment going on to it too as not just s5 come out but other machines that ahve made around 2, 5, and 10TH mining rigs and dont forget with the antminers that have a massive army under testing but many know they will mine with our equipment before sending and claim its a burn in test when their actually switching so many on and off and testing and making a bucket load of bitcoin. And to also add to it their new online mining contracts too that their selling as well so no doubt it will increase eand cause a + sign if it takes less time then + diff if longer time then - figures but I doubt it will continue to go down maybe a few times but mainly on the up trend unless everyone was to stop mining.