Dec 17 to Dec 29th diff thread (-0.32%) to (-0.12%)

[philipma1957]

I locked this.  notlist3d is running a new diff thread.

for dec 30  2014 to  jan 12 2015


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=909473.new#new


here is the  thread link. for dec 2 to dec 17  we had a -1.37%  adjustment.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=881394.0


I self moderate.  As I really almost never need to  but just in case some one curses or insults too much.

please do not reply until I really start it.  Thanks


looks like new diff is 39.4  with 1 block to go.  Unless we get a hour long block.


price for BTC is $326.24 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

okay bitcoincharts has it at about -0.12%

bitcoinwisdom has it at about -0.32%

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[philipma1957]

   reserve for charts.

  This set of diff numbers represent the network's growth since s-1's stopped being sold and s-3' started being sold.
I feel this was the beginning of network's slower growth and price drifting downward


Difficulty History

Date   --------------Difficulty----   Change-----   Hash Rate
Dec 16 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328     1.76%      288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252    10.05%      283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265     2.81%      257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026     0.98%      250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924    16.20%      248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124     8.75%      213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902    15.03%      196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039    20.86%      170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941     5.30%      141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558     8.08%      134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979     3.08%      124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%      120,391,236 GH/s

[philipma1957]

here is the  thread link. from dec 2 to dec 17


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=881394.0


I self moderate.  As I really almost never need to  but just in case some one curses or insults too much.

please do not reply until I really start it.  Thanks


look like new diff is 39.4  with 1 block to go.  Unless we get a hour long block



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

okay bitcoincharts has it at about -0.12%

bitcoinwisdom has it at about -0.32%

So with wed thur and fri to go with the paycoin rush .  rates will stay low.  I really want to see what happens say

sat 21  do we jump 5% in a day?

[klondike_bar]

Very pleased by the decrease in the last jump - but it wont last.

Paycoin has about 20PH+ of SHA-256 miners pointed at it (a mix of new equipment and equipment that wasnt profitable just days ago like the S1). In a few days when the mining stops most of that hashrate will return to bitcoin and this difficulty increase will likely be close to 7.5%

[suchmoon]

So with wed thur and fri to go with the paycoin rush .  rates will stay low.  I really want to see what happens say

sat 21  do we jump 5% in a day?

Probably not. None of the charts, at least the ones on bitcoinwisdom, are daily. The smallest resolution is 504 blocks, i.e ~3-4 days, so there might be a slight bump, or maybe it will be obscured by one of those variance spikes or dips.

As for the next adjustment I'd say if BTC stays below 350 we'll see a difficulty decrease and vice versa.

[philipma1957]

It is Thurs the 18th of Dec  diff is (-1.81%)   BTC is 310 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


A definite coin price to diff  percent  is starting to show up.
Tommorrow the GAW-ZEN-PAYCOIN  asic  256 mining is supposed to end.  The promised price of 20 usd per paycoin has drifted down to 6 dollars.
I will be looking at their site and btc wisdom a lot on Fri. 

 I want to see how this unfolds.

[notlist3d]

I am truly amazed to see two negatives in a row at this point.   I am curious what will happen to hashrate in about two days when paycoin mining stops.

It truly a amazing time to be a miner this week.

[klondike_bar]

It is Thurs the 18th of Dec  diff is (-1.81%)   BTC is 310 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


A definite coin price to diff  percent  is starting to show up.
Tommorrow the GAW-ZEN-PAYCOIN  asic  256 mining is supposed to end.  The promised price of 20 usd per paycoin has drifted down to 6 dollars.
I will be looking at their site and btc wisdom a lot on Fri. 

 I want to see how this unfolds.

1) i doubt that paycoin will reach $20. GAW and the private investors it convinced to buy into paycoin will have to throw insane amounts of cash at it to justify a fixed $20 price. Clearly this is a common train of thought since its trading at only 30% of its 'value'. (Ive mined about 10 XPY so far and might actually buy 0.25BTC worth just in case)

2) theres something like 50 PH ponted at paycoin right now. when the POW period ends i expect that ~60% of that mining power will go back into bitcoin mining. The rest will return to altcoins or be turned off again in the cases where >1w/gh gear was turned on again just to mine XPY for the week.

3) the return of that hashrate to bitcoin minng will probably put BTC back up to about 290PH, but may be too late to push this difficulty adjustment into the positives.

my guess: -1% this jump, +6% next jump

It truly a amazing time to be a miner this week.

amen. 20TH netted me over 1.5BTC in the last 36hrs, and probably another 0.7 BTC in the next 24hrs. compared to expected earnings of ~0.6BTC for that same 60hrs Im very pleased and Ive got a good feeling about my recent investment in 3x SP31 units

[notlist3d]

amen. 20TH netted me over 1.5BTC in the last 36hrs, and probably another 0.7 BTC in the next 24hrs. compared to expected earnings of ~0.6BTC for that same 60hrs Im very pleased and Ive got a good feeling about my recent investment in 3x SP31 units

Im sitting at 16-17T.  I paid off my electricity this month during this so I am completely happy.  I am mining a few paycoins just because I enjoy the unknown.  That being said I still am banking on BTC.   I renting 1/2 of them in BTC and mining 1/2 of paycoin for a day or so just to get a few.

I will be shocked if they go for 20 dollars anytime soon. I don't see GAW reaching that deep into their pocket but I could be wrong.

[spazzdla]

HUmmmmmmm if we go below $277 massive mines might shut off destroying the hashrate.. perhaps driving the price even lower causing a massive downwards spiral until only hobby miners are left...


I am tempted to say we are -.2% - .2% this change and the price movement over the next month or so will determine if large miners keep going.

[klondike_bar]

HUmmmmmmm if we go below $277 massive mines might shut off destroying the hashrate.. perhaps driving the price even lower causing a massive downwards spiral until only hobby miners are left...


I am tempted to say we are -.2% - .2% this change and the price movement over the next month or so will determine if large miners keep going.

massive farms generally have cheaper power. AT this point, most people are trying to unload anything thats >1.2w/GH (most of the buyers at this efficiency have cheap power or bad math skills). Anything between 0.9-1.2W/GH is similar, where theres more benefit in liquidating and replacing with 28nm stuff that can do <0.7w/GH

[philipma1957]

HUmmmmmmm if we go below $277 massive mines might shut off destroying the hashrate.. perhaps driving the price even lower causing a massive downwards spiral until only hobby miners are left...


I am tempted to say we are -.2% - .2% this change and the price movement over the next month or so will determine if large miners keep going.

massive farms generally have cheaper power. AT this point, most people are trying to unload anything thats >1.2w/GH (most of the buyers at this efficiency have cheap power or bad math skills). Anything between 0.9-1.2W/GH is similar, where theres more benefit in liquidating and replacing with 28nm stuff that can do <0.7w/GH

we have reach the point that you need an s-3 or better.  

So a lot of gear is going to leave the mining world.

The key here is BTC price to diff ratio.  300 usd a coin =  really flat  growth or a little drop in the rate.  

even a big guy will have second thoughts on dumping  1ph in s-3's for 1.5ph in sp20's.

I perfectly timed going from s-3 to sp20.  More luck then any other reason, but it does feel good.

[klondike_bar]

even a big guy will have second thoughts on dumping  1ph in s-3's for 1.5ph in sp20's.

I perfectly timed going from s-3 to sp20.  More luck then any other reason, but it does feel good.

I know what you mean. There been times when ive looked back at hardware purchases and been sad, but more often i look back and realise i got in the right moment. I bought both S1 and S3 units at the beginning of thier lifecycles, and they retained value far longer than i expected. When i bought the S3 units I expected them to underclock around janruary and turn of in may. Now it seems more like March/August respectively.

(that said, I sold most of mine to get a trio of SP31 units and pay my $CAD power bills) - Its exciting to see that people can get 1TH/400W from the SP20. An Sp31 could achieve 3.75TH/1.5kW, perhaps even better than that eventually, using similar settings

[Biodom]

even a big guy will have second thoughts on dumping  1ph in s-3's for 1.5ph in sp20's.

I perfectly timed going from s-3 to sp20.  More luck then any other reason, but it does feel good.

I know what you mean. There been times when ive looked back at hardware purchases and been sad, but more often i look back and realise i got in the right moment. I bought both S1 and S3 units at the beginning of thier lifecycles, and they retained value far longer than i expected. When i bought the S3 units I expected them to underclock around janruary and turn of in may. Now it seems more like March/August respectively.

(that said, I sold most of mine to get a trio of SP31 units and pay my $CAD power bills) - Its exciting to see that people can get 1TH/400W from the SP20. An Sp31 could achieve 3.75TH/1.5kW, perhaps even better than that eventually, using similar settings

Really? I would be interested in running SP30 at 1440w (one 15A circuit) at some point. Is there a thread for underclocking SP30 or I can pretty much follow SP20 settings?

[skuser]

3) the return of that hashrate to bitcoin minng will probably put BTC back up to about 290PH, but may be too late to push this difficulty adjustment into the positives.

my guess: -1% this jump, +6% next jump

I don't think it will be too late for diff to grow in this period when 30PH return back. Still 75% blocks to solve, so just by using simple math if starting tomorrow 70% remaining blocks will be mined 10% faster (very conservative, it's about 25PH) and previous 30% blocks have been mined 5% slower we will end at +6%. But it will be fun to watch anyway.

[suchmoon]

3) the return of that hashrate to bitcoin minng will probably put BTC back up to about 290PH, but may be too late to push this difficulty adjustment into the positives.

my guess: -1% this jump, +6% next jump

I don't think it will be too late for diff to grow in this period when 30PH return back. Still 75% blocks to solve, so just by using simple math if starting tomorrow 70% remaining blocks will be mined 10% faster (very conservative, it's about 25PH) and previous 30% blocks have been mined 5% slower we will end at +6%. But it will be fun to watch anyway.

Don't forget that most hashrate difficulty indicators (e.g bitcoinwisdom) are lagging, so we are just now starting to see the beginning of the Paycoin craze reflected on the charts. It may dip a lot lower than 5% before it starts going up. Just speculation of course, but I was watching XPY difficulty and it's averaging 4-5 times more than it did at the beginning of the week (and that number is less lagging than Bitcoin's due to much faster block times).

[philipma1957]

3) the return of that hashrate to bitcoin minng will probably put BTC back up to about 290PH, but may be too late to push this difficulty adjustment into the positives.

my guess: -1% this jump, +6% next jump

I don't think it will be too late for diff to grow in this period when 30PH return back. Still 75% blocks to solve, so just by using simple math if starting tomorrow 70% remaining blocks will be mined 10% faster (very conservative, it's about 25PH) and previous 30% blocks have been mined 5% slower we will end at +6%. But it will be fun to watch anyway.

Don't forget that most hashrate difficulty indicators (e.g bitcoinwisdom) are lagging, so we are just now starting to see the beginning of the Paycoin craze reflected on the charts. It may dip a lot lower than 5% before it starts going up. Just speculation of course, but I was watching XPY difficulty and it's averaging 4-5 times more than it did at the beginning of the week (and that number is less lagging than Bitcoin's due to much faster block times).

Well bitcoinwisdom is at (-3.69%)  price is 312 usd

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:   38,000,016,219 (-3.69%)
Adjust time:   After 1703 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):   257,402,513 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   10:40 (4.0 minutes ago)

[mavericklm]

might hit -5% on sunday morning
monday is going up up up!

[klondike_bar]

even a big guy will have second thoughts on dumping  1ph in s-3's for 1.5ph in sp20's.

I perfectly timed going from s-3 to sp20.  More luck then any other reason, but it does feel good.

I know what you mean. There been times when ive looked back at hardware purchases and been sad, but more often i look back and realise i got in the right moment. I bought both S1 and S3 units at the beginning of thier lifecycles, and they retained value far longer than i expected. When i bought the S3 units I expected them to underclock around janruary and turn of in may. Now it seems more like March/August respectively.

(that said, I sold most of mine to get a trio of SP31 units and pay my $CAD power bills) - Its exciting to see that people can get 1TH/400W from the SP20. An Sp31 could achieve 3.75TH/1.5kW, perhaps even better than that eventually, using similar settings

Really? I would be interested in running SP30 at 1440w (one 15A circuit) at some point. Is there a thread for underclocking SP30 or I can pretty much follow SP20 settings?

not sure 100% of SP30 specs, but yes, you would follow similar instructions. limit the maximum voltage and start voltages by about 0.05V each and see how that works out. The other way is to change the PSU draw limits, reducing them by 100-200W each.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    39,457,671,307
Estimated Next Difficulty:    37,948,264,061 (-3.83%)
Adjust time:    After 1626 Blocks, About 11.8 days