1l1l11ll1l (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 02:19:00 AM |
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Let's see the Tally
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Qoheleth
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 960
Merit: 1028
Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
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June 24, 2012, 04:00:40 AM |
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I'm going to stay on FPGAs until I can buy an ASIC board from somebody I feel comfortable giving my money.
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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rudrigorc2
Legendary
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Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 04:01:55 AM |
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yeah, Its sad how almost no one cares about monopoly in this forum
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rjk
Sr. Member
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Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
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June 24, 2012, 12:30:58 PM |
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yeah, Its sad how almost no one cares about monopoly in this forum
Right, such as how AMD is pretty much the only video card with acceptable support, speed, and profitability. Analogy fail.
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Cablez
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
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June 24, 2012, 12:51:04 PM |
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So approximately 6TH coming online in October at the low end. Good for network, bad for mining profit.
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Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup??? Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right! No job too hard so PM me for a quote Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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Philj
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June 24, 2012, 12:57:44 PM |
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I picked up 8 new singles and traded in 8 singles
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P4man
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June 24, 2012, 01:06:07 PM Last edit: June 24, 2012, 03:28:06 PM by P4man |
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I dont understand why anyone would preorder these
1) BFL isnt giving any indication of how many TH they are able to sell this year or the next, nor are they saying how many preorders they already have received. How on earth are you going to estimate ROI when you cant estimate the difficulty 6 months from here within an order of magnitude? 2) you get no guarantees whatsoever, not on shipping order, not a price freeze guarantee, nothing. 2) They make no promise not to mine with their own hardware (AFAIK) or to not sell in bulk 1000s of ASICs to, say, some ambitious mining asic company ran by a UK guy with a Russian sounding name. For all I know those asics could find their way to a datacenter before anyone here gets their first jalapeno. 3) They rushed the preorder so badly, taking money so early (even though they supposedly got a VC capital injection), ... one has to wonder if they know something we dont.
Anyway, best of luck to everyone that ordered. I predict a financial bloodbath.
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AndrewBUD
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June 24, 2012, 01:08:47 PM |
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I predict a lot of pissed off people with pre orders...
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| 365 | TM | | | | EZ365 is a digital ecosystem that combines the best aspects of online gaming, cryptocurrency trading and blockchain education. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ | | ..WHITEPAPER.. ..INVESTOR PITCH..
| | | | .'M████▀▀██ ██ W█Ws'V██ ██▄▄███▀▀█ i█████m.~M████▀▀██ ███ d███████Ws'V██ ██████ ****M██████m.~███f~~__mW█ ██▀▀▀████████= Y██▀▀██W ,gm███████ g█████▄▄▄██ █A~`_WW Y█ ██!,████████ g▀▀▀███ ████▀▀`_m████i!████P W███ ██ _███▄▄▄██▀▀▀███Af`_m███ █W ███A ]███ ██ __ ~~~▀▀▀▀▄▄▄█*f_m██████ ██i!██!i███████ Y█████▄▄▄▄__. i██▀▀▀██████████ █!,██████ 8█ █▀▀█████.!██ ██████████i! █████ '█ █ █ █W M█▄▄▄██████ ██ !██ !███▄▄█ ██i'██████████ ██ Y███████████.]██████████████ █ ███████b ███ ██████ Y █ █▀▀█i!██ ████ V███ █ █W Y█████ ~~▀███▄▄▄█['███ ~~*██ | | Play | | | | │ │ ███ │ ███ │ ███ │ │ ███ ███ │ ███ ███ ███ ███ │ ███ ███ ███ ███ ███ ███ ███ ███ ███ │ │ ███ ███ │ │ │ │ │ | | Trade | | | | __▄▄████▄▄ __▄▄███████████████▄▄▄ _▄▄█████████▀▀~`,▄████████████▄▄▄ ~▀▀████▀▀~`,_▄▄███████████████▀▀▀ d█~ =▀███████████████▀▀ ]█! m▄▄ '~▀▀▀████▀▀~~ ,_▄▄ ,W█. *████▄▄__ ' __▄▄█████ !██P █████████████████████ W█. - ██████████████████▀ i██[ ~ ▀▀█████████▀▀▀ g███! Y███ | | Learn |
[/tabl
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rudrigorc2
Legendary
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Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 01:12:08 PM |
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dont worry, the end is near says the Mayan... maybe before the reward halv
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Cablez
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
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June 24, 2012, 01:23:56 PM |
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dont worry, the end is near says the Mayan... maybe before the reward halv Actually I think its the other way around. Especially if they can deliver product then it could be in November.
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Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup??? Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right! No job too hard so PM me for a quote Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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Dargo
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 01:30:50 PM |
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I dont understand why anyone would preorder when
1) BFL isnt giving any indication of how many TH they are able to sell this year or the next, nor are they saying how many preorders they already have received. How on earth are you going to estimate ROI when you cant estimate the difficulty 6 months from here within an order of magnitude? 2) you get no guarantees whatsoever, not on shipping order, not a price freeze guarantee, nothing. 2) They make no promise not to mine with their own hardware (AFAIK) or to not sell in bulk 1000s of ASICs to, say, some ambitious mining asic company ran by a UK guy with a Russian sounding name. For all I know those asics could find their way to a datacenter before anyone here gets their first jalapeno. 3) They rushed the preorder so badly, taking money so early (even though they supposedly got a VC capital injection), ... one has to wonder if they know something we dont.
Anyway, best of luck to everyone that ordered. I predict a financial bloodbath.
If there's going to be a financial bloodbath, it will be much worse for those investing in new GPUs or FPGAs. We know that ASIC is the future of mining. Whatever the ROI turns out to be for early adopters of ASICs, odds are it will be much better than it is for later adopters. So far, the history of mining has favored early adopters, and I don't see any reason to think this is going to change. But it is risky for sure. Personally, I think the biggest risk for those investing in ASICs is if sha 256 is compromised. GPU and FPGA miners could adapt, but ASIC miners would need new hardware, their old hardware becoming useless. I don't know how likely this is or how soon it could happen, but it is a possibility.
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Fjordbit
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June 24, 2012, 01:32:18 PM |
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I pre-ordered 6 the trade in option. I plan to order more this week when some more coins come in. My order number is 1916
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schnell
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June 24, 2012, 01:33:10 PM |
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:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.
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Dargo
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 01:41:53 PM |
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:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.
BFL has stated that they will refuse any orders that are in danger of giving 51%+ to any individual. You could reject that as BS, but BFL does have a vested interest in Bitcoin, so I doubt they are lying about this.
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schnell
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June 24, 2012, 01:45:06 PM |
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:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.
BFL has stated that they will refuse any orders that are in danger of giving 51%+ to any individual. You could reject that as BS, but BFL does have a vested interest in Bitcoin, so I doubt they are lying about this. So basically its one per address. What if I ordered one to 10 of my friends addresses? How would they know it would be all me? I would order from their house and everything. All I hope is that they have a few 1Th rigs themselves and will mine with them if anyone starts an attempt to %1%.
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crazyates
Legendary
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Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 01:54:50 PM |
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:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.
BFL has stated that they will refuse any orders that are in danger of giving 51%+ to any individual. You could reject that as BS, but BFL does have a vested interest in Bitcoin, so I doubt they are lying about this. So basically its one per address. What if I ordered one to 10 of my friends addresses? How would they know it would be all me? I would order from their house and everything. All I hope is that they have a few 1Th rigs themselves and will mine with them if anyone starts an attempt to %1%. I think they're gonna ship out smaller items first, to raise the network hashspeed before they ship out a shitton of 1TH units. They have also said they don't want any one person (or group of people) profiting any more than another (within their customer base - if you're not a customer, then you're SOL).
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schnell
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June 24, 2012, 02:02:06 PM |
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:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.
BFL has stated that they will refuse any orders that are in danger of giving 51%+ to any individual. You could reject that as BS, but BFL does have a vested interest in Bitcoin, so I doubt they are lying about this. So basically its one per address. What if I ordered one to 10 of my friends addresses? How would they know it would be all me? I would order from their house and everything. All I hope is that they have a few 1Th rigs themselves and will mine with them if anyone starts an attempt to %1%. I think they're gonna ship out smaller items first, to raise the network hashspeed before they ship out a shitton of 1TH units. They have also said they don't want any one person (or group of people) profiting any more than another (within their customer base - if you're not a customer, then you're SOL). They don't want it. They wouldn't know if it was from different ip's to different addresses.
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Dargo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 02:18:33 PM |
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:/ With so many 1th rigs, someone can easily spend around 200k dollars and 51% the hell out of us.
BFL has stated that they will refuse any orders that are in danger of giving 51%+ to any individual. You could reject that as BS, but BFL does have a vested interest in Bitcoin, so I doubt they are lying about this. So basically its one per address. What if I ordered one to 10 of my friends addresses? How would they know it would be all me? I would order from their house and everything. All I hope is that they have a few 1Th rigs themselves and will mine with them if anyone starts an attempt to %1%. I think they're gonna ship out smaller items first, to raise the network hashspeed before they ship out a shitton of 1TH units. They have also said they don't want any one person (or group of people) profiting any more than another (within their customer base - if you're not a customer, then you're SOL). They've stated that there will be 3 separate production lines for each unit, and the first shipment, which will go out at the same time, will include all 3 types of units. If someone shipping to multiple addresses wanted to grab 51%, they would have had to order at least 13 mini rigs = $390,000. And this assumes they would get *all* of the first shipment, which is impossible since 1/3 is going to randomly selected orders from the first month, and 1/3 is going to the exchange program for FPGA units. Given this, it would be virtually impossible for any single individual, no matter how many distinct addresses they had to ship to, and no matter how much money they had, to get half the hashing power of the first shipment. File this 51% worry under "foil hat."
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jjiimm_64
Legendary
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Activity: 1876
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 02:54:34 PM |
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They've stated that there will be 3 separate production lines for each unit, and the first shipment, which will go out at the same time, will include all 3 types of units. If someone shipping to multiple addresses wanted to grab 51%, they would have had to order at least 13 mini rigs = $390,000. And this assumes they would get *all* of the first shipment, which is impossible since 1/3 is going to randomly selected orders from the first month, and 1/3 is going to the exchange program for FPGA units. Given this, it would be virtually impossible for any single individual, no matter how many distinct addresses they had to ship to, and no matter how much money they had, to get half the hashing power of the first shipment. File this 51% worry under "foil hat."
well said
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1jimbitm6hAKTjKX4qurCNQubbnk2YsFw
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Cablez
Legendary
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Activity: 1400
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I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
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June 24, 2012, 03:38:04 PM |
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Looks like 10TH coming online as a lowball guess.
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Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup??? Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right! No job too hard so PM me for a quote Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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ice_chill
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June 24, 2012, 05:20:37 PM |
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Personally I am expecting around 300TH by year's end.
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Cablez
Legendary
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Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
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June 24, 2012, 05:29:59 PM |
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I was just keeping a loose tally from the poll. Up to 14TH, yea make my bitcoin stronger.
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Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup??? Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right! No job too hard so PM me for a quote Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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Serge
Legendary
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Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 05:32:48 PM |
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I was just keeping a loose tally from the poll. Up to 14TH, yea make my bitcoin stronger. minus inefficient by then hardware
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Deafboy
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June 24, 2012, 05:40:56 PM |
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Next summer I will turn on my GPU miner just for the nostalgic feelings...
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sadpandatech
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June 24, 2012, 05:46:11 PM |
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I was just keeping a loose tally from the poll. Up to 14TH, yea make my bitcoin stronger. minus inefficient by then hardware My tally thus far puts network hash rate at about ~46TH a few weeks after launch(not accounting for new mini-rigs as I believe those wont be available so soon). The minus on inefficient hardware can at most be ~11.5TH only if every single current unit is actually inefficient. So, still ~35TH at the least. You can estimate the difficulty from this in one of 2 ways. Either calculate the multiplier above current hash rate and use the same on the diff. Or, use TP's bitcoin calc or similar, punch in estimated total hashrate as if it were your own. Raise and adjust the difficulty number until you get ~7200 BTC per day. This will give you what the difficulty would be if the estimated network hash is correct. It's as close as anyone is gonna get. The rest comes down to just how good you are at 'guessing' what exactly will come online at release. cheers
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If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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sadpandatech
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June 24, 2012, 05:46:42 PM |
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Next summer I will turn on my GPU miner just for the nostalgic feelings...
the nostalgic feeling fo sweaty balls? ;p
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If you're not excited by the idea of being an early adopter 'now', then you should come back in three or four years and either tell us "Told you it'd never work!" or join what should, by then, be a much more stable and easier-to-use system. - GA
It is being worked on by smart people. -DamienBlack
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Dargo
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 05:47:19 PM |
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Next summer I will turn on my GPU miner just for the nostalgic feelings...
I'm going to miss GPU mining. Even though I'm embracing ASIC, I think it's going to be dull compared to GPU. I'll miss the building of open air rigs, maxing out the # of GPUs on mobos with extenders, the assurance you can sell your equipment to gamers, etc. But hopefully ASIC mining will less of a PITA at least.
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crazyates
Legendary
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Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 06:02:39 PM |
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Next summer I will turn on my GPU miner just for the nostalgic feelings...
I'm going to miss GPU mining. Even though I'm embracing ASIC, I think it's going to be dull compared to GPU. I'll miss the building of open air rigs, maxing out the # of GPUs on mobos with extenders, the assurance you can sell your equipment to gamers, etc. But hopefully ASIC mining will less of a PITA at least. The overclocking, the undervolting, the different kernels, finding that "sweet spot" for every card and it's quirks.... I think i'm gonna miss it too...
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Dargo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 06:14:38 PM |
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Next summer I will turn on my GPU miner just for the nostalgic feelings...
I'm going to miss GPU mining. Even though I'm embracing ASIC, I think it's going to be dull compared to GPU. I'll miss the building of open air rigs, maxing out the # of GPUs on mobos with extenders, the assurance you can sell your equipment to gamers, etc. But hopefully ASIC mining will less of a PITA at least. The overclocking, the undervolting, the different kernels, finding that "sweet spot" for every card and it's quirks.... I think i'm gonna miss it too... Yep, BFL is basically selling mining appliances rather than rigs you can fiddle with and make your own. We might be able to OC a bit, but this will be at the mercy of BFL firmware updates. Like I said, pretty dull compared to GPU. I wouldn't be surprised if a fork of BTC catches on for GPU/FPGA, even if it is just for fun (I guess forks already exist for that). Actually, what would be interesting would be a fork based on a better security standard than sha256. Even if it isn't profitable initially, it could pan out later if sha256 is compromised. If that came along, I would seriously consider pointing my GPUs at it rather than selling them.
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Qoheleth
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 960
Merit: 1028
Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
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June 24, 2012, 06:50:04 PM |
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If there's going to be a financial bloodbath, it will be much worse for those investing in new GPUs or FPGAs. We know that ASIC is the future of mining. Whatever the ROI turns out to be for early adopters of ASICs, odds are it will be much better than it is for later adopters. So far, the history of mining has favored early adopters, and I don't see any reason to think this is going to change. But it is risky for sure. Personally, I think the biggest risk for those investing in ASICs is if sha 256 is compromised. GPU and FPGA miners could adapt, but ASIC miners would need new hardware, their old hardware becoming useless. I don't know how likely this is or how soon it could happen, but it is a possibility. Yeah, ASIC isn't the future of mining, it's the mid-term of mining. Any given ASIC is dominant for the period in which it has the best algorithm, and FPGAs/GPUs are dominant for the period in which no ASIC has the best algorithm. Of course, the dominance is great enough for ASICs to be a no-brainer as long as there are no innovations in solving SHA256. Which just leaves (as I've mentioned before) the question of how long until I can buy an ASIC board from someone who isn't BFL.
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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Dargo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1820
Merit: 1000
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June 24, 2012, 07:00:29 PM |
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If there's going to be a financial bloodbath, it will be much worse for those investing in new GPUs or FPGAs. We know that ASIC is the future of mining. Whatever the ROI turns out to be for early adopters of ASICs, odds are it will be much better than it is for later adopters. So far, the history of mining has favored early adopters, and I don't see any reason to think this is going to change. But it is risky for sure. Personally, I think the biggest risk for those investing in ASICs is if sha 256 is compromised. GPU and FPGA miners could adapt, but ASIC miners would need new hardware, their old hardware becoming useless. I don't know how likely this is or how soon it could happen, but it is a possibility. Yeah, ASIC isn't the future of mining, it's the mid-term of mining. Any given ASIC is dominant for the period in which it has the best algorithm, and FPGAs/GPUs are dominant for the period in which no ASIC has the best algorithm. Of course, the dominance is great enough for ASICs to be a no-brainer as long as there are no innovations in solving SHA256. Which just leaves (as I've mentioned before) the question of how long until I can buy an ASIC board from someone who isn't BFL. Exactly - I'm going with BFL, though (not ideal, but I'm OK with it). Great handle BTW - wish I'd thought of that.
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naz86
Member
Offline
Activity: 111
Merit: 10
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June 25, 2012, 06:05:04 AM |
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Order Number 2047 2046 people before me ?
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Chefnet
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June 25, 2012, 06:09:41 AM |
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no ~400 befor you (1656 was the first order)
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fcmatt
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1001
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June 25, 2012, 06:15:33 AM |
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Will use my gpus until no longer worth it then quit bitcoin pretty much. No use for it unless i can make money. Or if i can buy asics without sending my money into a black hole for months on end. Other old single customers still dont have their shit. Ridiculous.
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Paladin69
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June 25, 2012, 06:47:31 AM |
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order #2033
mini-rig SC upgrade
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Cablez
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1000
I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...
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June 25, 2012, 12:42:18 PM |
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Looks like around 17TH on the low side, keep on buying guys.
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Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup??? Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right! No job too hard so PM me for a quote Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
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bitboyben
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July 05, 2012, 06:45:46 PM |
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Order # 2764 for me. Will it arrive before the end of the world?
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Why did I sell at $5! Come back to me my old bitcoin! 1GjeBGS4KrxKAeEVt8d1fTnuKgpKpMmL6S If you don't like the price of BTC come back in 8 hours.
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fulepp
Full Member
Offline
Activity: 256
Merit: 100
Risk-hedging platform for cryptocurrency investors
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July 05, 2012, 07:11:23 PM |
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Mini Ring upgrade to Mini Ring SC. Order number 2360.
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