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Author Topic: More Bitcoin adoption = lower Bitcoin/Usd rate!  (Read 4533 times)
traderman (OP)
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January 04, 2015, 09:46:30 PM
 #1

I wrote this early 2014 and I think it is still relevant. The more adoption we see the lower Bitcoin/Usd will go!

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014/02/bitcoin-adoption-bitcoin-price-stability.html
picolo
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January 04, 2015, 10:01:22 PM
 #2

I wrote this early 2014 and I think it is still relevant. The more adoption we see the lower Bitcoin/Usd will go!

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014/02/bitcoin-adoption-bitcoin-price-stability.html

I think that the more Bitcoin will be adopted, the bigger the price should be because Demand will increase.
traderman (OP)
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January 04, 2015, 10:02:54 PM
 #3

I wrote this article when the exchange rate was @ 800, look where we are today. Those large retailers are not holding their BTC. They are dumping it on the market!

I wrote this early 2014 and I think it is still relevant. The more adoption we see the lower Bitcoin/Usd will go!

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014/02/bitcoin-adoption-bitcoin-price-stability.html

I think that the more Bitcoin will be adopted, the bigger the price should be because Demand will increase.
vm_mpn
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January 04, 2015, 11:01:56 PM
 #4

I would be curious to see hard data from CoinBase, BitPay,etc. supporting this theory. In all honesty I do not think effect of retailers converting to fiat has this dramatic effect so far. If you read recent Bitcoin Bowl retailers feedback (coindesk article) you will notice how underwhelming bitcoin sales were before, during and after the event. I would not blame retailers nor BitPay - they all loose money right now when it comes to Bitcoin. ASIC manufacturers and large, commercial pools most likely the biggest source of dumping cryptos on exchanges.
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January 04, 2015, 11:07:12 PM
 #5

I am hoping this is just teething problems but I am starting to doubt it. Shame really as these low prices are putting off all the people who invested in the last year.

A year ago there was all the talk that 1 Bitcoin will be worth 100k etc which caused a temporary boom of people buying for investment but now it is slowly going back to the same normal trading.

So now we are left with corporate adoption but now waiting for some serious hardware/ software to get the sheeple/ ordinary folk to start using it more and therefore buying it more and believing it more. They wont do this without some better gadgets and ease of use etc.

Until more development happens it will slump back down to the 50 USD mark I would imagine.

To peel or not to peel.
traderman (OP)
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January 04, 2015, 11:18:18 PM
 #6

That is a possible scenario, one other thing that might serve as a catalyst is a major worldwide financial system instability/conflict which I think is very likely at some point in the future. But retailers are definitely not helping the price, they would be carrying a pretty big risk if they are not hedged in some way.

I am hoping this is just teething problems but I am starting to doubt it. Shame really as these low prices are putting off all the people who invested in the last year.

A year ago there was all the talk that 1 Bitcoin will be worth 100k etc which caused a temporary boom of people buying for investment but now it is slowly going back to the same normal trading.

So now we are left with corporate adoption but now waiting for some serious hardware/ software to get the sheeple/ ordinary folk to start using it more and therefore buying it more and believing it more. They wont do this without some better gadgets and ease of use etc.

Until more development happens it will slump back down to the 50 USD mark I would imagine.
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January 04, 2015, 11:25:39 PM
 #7

It needs to be easier for people to make decent part-time income from BTC, since full-time money would (probably/mostly) get converted to fiat. If "millions" of people can make ~10% to 25% of their income from BTC, then they would be likely to save it or spend, and not convert to paper cash.

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January 04, 2015, 11:33:15 PM
 #8

Yes, definitely...  Pretty much everything (except people who buy and hold Bitcoin) creates downward pressure on BTC value right now. Even Bitcoin debit cards have to be converted to fiat in order to be useful. This is going to be long and organic process till we no longer need to value Bitcoin in fiat, and Bitcoin will stand on it's own merit. 
goosoodude
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January 04, 2015, 11:35:34 PM
 #9

I wrote this early 2014 and I think it is still relevant. The more adoption we see the lower Bitcoin/Usd will go!

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014/02/bitcoin-adoption-bitcoin-price-stability.html

I think that the more Bitcoin will be adopted, the bigger the price should be because Demand will increase.

There is no reason for the demand to increase unless the merchants provide discount enough for the customers to try and get Bitcoins. Usually, fiat works as well for the customer to buy their products.






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TheButterZone
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January 05, 2015, 12:18:16 AM
 #10

At some point, businesses insta-dumping will drop the exchange rate so low that they should start hoarding it and setting the rate themselves by reselling their own BTC at a massive profit.

Saying that you don't trust someone because of their behavior is completely valid.
traderman (OP)
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January 05, 2015, 12:25:01 AM
 #11

Also other brokerages that allow buying and selling Bitcoin on margin are not helping either. It just creates excessive volatility that is only good for speculation.

At some point, businesses insta-dumping will drop the exchange rate so low that they should start hoarding it and setting the rate themselves by reselling their own BTC at a massive profit.
caribbeanbitcoiner
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January 05, 2015, 12:51:38 AM
 #12

I wrote this article when the exchange rate was @ 800, look where we are today. Those large retailers are not holding their BTC. They are dumping it on the market!

I wrote this early 2014 and I think it is still relevant. The more adoption we see the lower Bitcoin/Usd will go!

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014/02/bitcoin-adoption-bitcoin-price-stability.html

I think that the more Bitcoin will be adopted, the bigger the price should be because Demand will increase.

Which creates a surplus which creates the drop in price.
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January 05, 2015, 01:06:00 AM
 #13

I wrote this early 2014 and I think it is still relevant. The more adoption we see the lower Bitcoin/Usd will go!

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2014/02/bitcoin-adoption-bitcoin-price-stability.html

I think that the more Bitcoin will be adopted, the bigger the price should be because Demand will increase.

There is no reason for the demand to increase unless the merchants provide discount enough for the customers to try and get Bitcoins. Usually, fiat works as well for the customer to buy their products.
This is what I've been saying for quite a while now (ever since all this news about big merchants accepting bitcoin became a semi-regular thing). I would've thought that Bitpay was orchestrating their pitch to companies willing to accept bitcoin and that they'd get even more business from bitcoin users providing they allow the protocol's advantages to allow for discounts to be offered by these businesses. Then, the end result would be better for the bitcoin price as demand would be a reoccurring thing in the overall market and make bitcoin a steady and demanded payment mechanism. Even w/ ATMs popping up there's really no incentive for anyone new to want to use them unless there's a sign at the businesses' payment counter incentivizing people to pay w/ it for a ~10% discount or so.
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January 05, 2015, 01:10:32 AM
 #14

you cannot make any assuptions on true demand or true supply. or true value...

because the indicator you all only see is the price. and this price is so fake you dont realise it.

just look at the exchanges. they are not moving 13million coins. they are not even moving 1.3 million coins. they are not even moving 130k coins...

the exchanges are moving less than 1% of the market cap. infact its less than 1 tenth of a percent. so trying to link exchange movements to proper market trends of the whole 13million coins is utterly obsurd!!

open your eyes people, the exchanges should not be the value bases of bitcoin

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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January 05, 2015, 02:45:21 AM
 #15

you cannot make any assuptions on true demand or true supply. or true value...

because the indicator you all only see is the price. and this price is so fake you dont realise it.

just look at the exchanges. they are not moving 13million coins. they are not even moving 1.3 million coins. they are not even moving 130k coins...

the exchanges are moving less than 1% of the market cap. infact its less than 1 tenth of a percent. so trying to link exchange movements to proper market trends of the whole 13million coins is utterly obsurd!!

open your eyes people, the exchanges should not be the value bases of bitcoin

The fact that the daily volume is a small portion of the market cap is irrelevant.  Price does reflect what people are willing to pay. 
You are off your rocker as far I'm concerned when you say the exchange price is somehow fake.

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January 05, 2015, 02:56:55 AM
 #16

I think what more we see altcoin scams and altcoins what anyone no need, that more bitcoin price drop. They want only fiat and dump stealed btc away instantly.
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January 05, 2015, 03:03:19 AM
 #17

you cannot make any assuptions on true demand or true supply. or true value...

because the indicator you all only see is the price. and this price is so fake you dont realise it.

just look at the exchanges. they are not moving 13million coins. they are not even moving 1.3 million coins. they are not even moving 130k coins...

the exchanges are moving less than 1% of the market cap. infact its less than 1 tenth of a percent. so trying to link exchange movements to proper market trends of the whole 13million coins is utterly obsurd!!

open your eyes people, the exchanges should not be the value bases of bitcoin

Exchange rates are currently the best indicator we have of the fiat value of BTC. During extreme bull markets people do tend to overpay (with cash) at localbitcoins.

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January 05, 2015, 03:10:52 AM
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I can't see a relation between that facts

indeed, in the early years it has been the opposite
traderman (OP)
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January 05, 2015, 03:16:30 AM
 #19

Yeah LOL, when Bitcoin was going up everyone was quoting the exchange rate, now that it is down somehow it is less indicative. Haha. I wish Bitcoin was valued in terms of something other then USD, but so far I haven't thought of anything else.

you cannot make any assuptions on true demand or true supply. or true value...

because the indicator you all only see is the price. and this price is so fake you dont realise it.

just look at the exchanges. they are not moving 13million coins. they are not even moving 1.3 million coins. they are not even moving 130k coins...

the exchanges are moving less than 1% of the market cap. infact its less than 1 tenth of a percent. so trying to link exchange movements to proper market trends of the whole 13million coins is utterly obsurd!!

open your eyes people, the exchanges should not be the value bases of bitcoin

Exchange rates are currently the best indicator we have of the fiat value of BTC. During extreme bull markets people do tend to overpay (with cash) at localbitcoins.
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January 05, 2015, 09:51:57 PM
 #20

1 BTC=1 ozt 99.9% gold

That brings it back up to the ATH.

Saying that you don't trust someone because of their behavior is completely valid.
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