100% proof pirate runs a ponzi (thought experiment)

[hazek]

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme the inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

In a sense the nature of pirate's business is like the Schrödinger's cat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

It's in a superposition where it's both a ponzi and a legit business -> 100% proof (not really but you get the point). Only after we get a peek behind the curtain will know which it really is.



Bottom line:
- Those who are "investing" with pirate or defending his practices need to understand that at least some of the time it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything and are even defending the scamming.



*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law


EDIT:
Disclaimer: I thought it would have been obvious but it appears I overestimated the intelligence of some, particularly that of the first few posters who replied: This is a thought experiment, and not actually a concrete proof either way.

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[rjk]

Circumstance:
-  resembles
- there is no actual credible evidence


*circumstantial evidence

nothing that could stick in a court of law

Nothing to see here, move on.

[imsaguy]

Ok Bill Nye, let's break it down:

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme an inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

does not equal

it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything

You need to go reread about causation and then work on your logic skills.

[enmaku]

Schrodinger's cat: IDTTMWYTIM...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWMTOrux0LM

[Sukrim]

I hoped to read about some real findings on the blockchain that pirate for example only pays out interest from deposit addresses or something like that...

Sorry, but even though I'm also VERY sceptical about whatever pirateat40 does (my guess was/is ponzi by proxy, like "investing" in MMM - but then there's the question how he gets these amounts of BTC back from fiat without causing a rally at MtGox) I hate "Occlam's razor says"... "if it quacks like a duck"... and "it really looks and is operated like other HYIP scams"... "proofs", especially paired with percentages.

Post blockchain evidence, IP logs, photos of pirateat40 with big suitcases full of USD... but not the same crap all the time that "it smells like ponzi in here".

[Portnoy]

Ok Bill Nye, let's break it down:

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme an inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

does not equal

it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything

You need to go reread about causation and then work on your logic skills.

+1

[hazek]

Ok Bill Nye, let's break it down:

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme an inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

does equal

it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything

Do you see what I did there?

[Yankee (BitInstant)]

Hey hazek,

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

You obviously came to your findings based on evidence you have found and

*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law

In that paste you cited some proof, can you share it ?

EDIT: I'v read some others posts as well on the topic so would be cool to hear your side

-Charlie

[hazek]

Hey hazek,

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

You obviously came to your findings based on evidence you have found and

*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law

In that paste you cited some proof, can you share it ?

EDIT: I'v read some others posts as well on the topic so would be cool to hear your side

-Charlie

Here are some of the things that are alarming:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91653.0

[Raoul Duke]

Hey hazek,

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

You obviously came to your findings based on evidence you have found and

*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law

In that paste you cited some proof, can you share it ?

EDIT: I'v read some others posts as well on the topic so would be cool to hear your side

-Charlie

Here are some of the things that are alarming:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91653.0

alarming != proof, LogicMan.

[Francesco]

First off this is a serious post although it may appear as trolling to some who don't value science as much as I do.

Circumstance:
- pirate's business remarkably resembles as HYIP ponzi scheme the inevitable outcome of which will result in a total loss for everyone who "invested" with him
- there is no actual credible evidence that would either confirm or deny that pirate runs a ponzi*

In a sense the nature of pirate's business is like the Schrödinger's cat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOYyCHGWJq4

It's in a superposition where it's both a ponzi and a legit business. Only after we get a peek behind the curtain will know which it really is.



Bottom line:
- Those who are "investing" with pirate or defending his practices need to understand that at least some of the time it's certain they are getting scamed and will lose everything and are even defending the scamming.



*we actually do have some circumstantial evidence based on pirates posts that does tip the scale slightly in favor of a ponzi scam but nothing that could stick in a court of law


EDIT:
Disclaimer: I thought it would have been obvious but it appears I overestimated the intelligence of some, particularly that of the first few posters who replied: This is a thought experiment, and not actually a concrete proof either way.

I believe Pirate is a Ponzi, but I am ever more certain you are trolling. Please get a life and leave quantum physics alone 

[rebuilder]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

[Yankee (BitInstant)]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

Agreed +1

[N12]

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

I agree, this is the heart of the matter. And anyone who defends such a thing as legit would similarly defend a ponzi scheme as legit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91552.0

Here is my assessment for the interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.msg1006256#msg1006256

BTW, moving this because it's not really related to price speculation.

[bitcoinBull]

I'm not following the situation with pirate, but this seems like a big issue -if true- needs to be addresses.

This all started with pirate's recent change of terms.

Most telling:

We are not supposed to say evil things in threads concerning "Bitcoin Savings and Trust" or their various clones and offspring, thus it gets an extra thread. Actually, it's not just that one that worries me, but it is the most prominent example.

I'm looking to pull one bigger than mybitcoin.com.  If figure, go big or go back to work.

Occam's razor:

You don't have a shred of evidence or even an idea of what I do. 

Um, I think this is the problem.

Probable default around July 27:

Ponzi "investors" shall be more worried about return of capital, as opposed to return on capital. Specifically between now and miracle of anonymous operator ceasing being anonymous event that is reportedly scheduled to happen a few weeks down the road.

Howdy, 

I'll be in Las Vegas July 27th through July 29th with some of the biggest names in Bitcoin.  If you're in the area drop by and we can all chat.  Contact me for details if you're interested.

P.S. Private security will be present so no fishy business.  

-pirate

Bold move considering people will learn how you look and who you really are. It's almost as if this was a stunt to inspire confidence.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

+1 perfectly said.

It is entirely possible that Pirate operation is legit.   
It is also entirely possible that it is a ponzi scheme. 
At least with the limited information given to investors there is no way to make an accurate determination.

So if Pirate's investors don't get scammed this time around it will simply be due to blind luck and if they keep investing with the same lack of due diligence they will eventually be burned.

[hazek]

Hazek, you have a good point, even if you decided to obscure it for some reason:

Anyone investing in a business that can't, with the information available, be distinguished from a ponzi is playing a losing game. Eventually, anyone that trusting or greedy will get taken for a ride.

Therefore, the question for any investor is not whether or not pirateat40's service can be proven legit or fraudulent. It's whether the information available indicates it's prudent to invest in the sc

+1 perfectly said.

It is entirely possible that Pirate operation is legit.   
It is also entirely possible that it is a ponzi scheme. 
At least with the limited information given to investors there is no way to make an accurate determination.

So if Pirate's investors don't get scammed this time around it will simply be due to blind luck and if they keep investing with the same lack of due diligence they will eventually be burned.

That's exactly what I was going for with my OP.. Any suggestions how I can edit it to make it clearer?

[nimda]

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

[hazek]

Warning - while you were reading 6 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

GEEZUS GUYZ CALM DOWN!!!!111one

It's a gamble. A really big gamble. I'd rather give my money to pirate than satoshiDICE. And I don't give him much.


@The OP
Work on your logic. While Schrodinger's cat is in its box, there is no "100% proof" that it's dead. We take the waveform of both the dead and the alive cat, but that doesn't mean much.
Why isn't your post 100% proof that pirate runs a legit business?

Here's a similarly flawed argument in favor of pirate:
"Statistically speaking, pirate always pays interest, therefore this is a 0-risk deposit"

If it can be a ponzi it is a ponzi some of the time -> 100% proof.

[N12]

1. Spend couple of months trading #bitcoin-OTC and bitcointalk to build reputation with constructed ninjaat40 identity
2. Offer 10% per week saying you do "Market Arbitrage" and "Private Loans To Network Members"
3. Watch pirate investor money flow to ninja

How can we prove that the ninjaat40 is a ponzi op?