Jan 12th to Approx Jan 27th diff thread (3.5%)

[skuser]

so from 932 to  812 is 120 blocks and the average is 5 blocks an hour not 6 as it should be.

5/6 =  down 16.67%

  It is now a day .  120 blocks/5 block an hour  = 24 hours  of  -15%

needs to be watched longer to see if this keeps up.

It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66   
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120



I will keep track here since this looks more like a trend then variance.

I'll bet this is variance. If you look at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png the hashrate didn't even touch Jan 13th lows and is rising again.

[philipma1957]

so from 932 to  812 is 120 blocks and the average is 5 blocks an hour not 6 as it should be.

5/6 =  down 16.67%

  It is now a day .  120 blocks/5 block an hour  = 24 hours  of  -15%

needs to be watched longer to see if this keeps up.

It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66  
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120
it is now 5.59 at  804 blocks ---  128


I will keep track here since this looks more like a trend then variance.

I'll bet this is variance. If you look at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png the hashrate didn't even touch Jan 13th lows and is rising again.

you could be correct as we are now at  

Blocks/hour   5.59     at   block 804    .

this is a jump up  but still hard to know as the Block per hour is more real time then any other site.  believe it is the last 10 blocks on this site.

that 5.59 may be high and a variance over 5  rather then a variance under 6.

[skuser]

If you need real time, watch this https://blockchain.info/blocks/   . But watching that would be totally crazy from probability point of view, there's too much variance. Also it hints that bitcoincharts uses larger span for calculation because just by quick look in last 2 hrs 15 blocks have been found which is much faster than it should (blocks 339893-339907). But again, it's absolutely useless to look at data block by block. Even 1 day of data (144 blocks) is absolutely useless when watching hashrate. If you look at chart here http://nextdifficulty.com/ you can see how extremely volatile is one day hashrate compared to 1 week hashrate, thus barely usable for any assumptions...

[klondike_bar]

things are slowly shaping up for about -3.5% change i think.

seems like a lot of miners are still running, even if its at a loss. I thought the price staying at <210 would shake out a lot of the equipment that pays >0.15/kwh. The fact that even an SP3X at 0.5w/gh is losing money in parts of europe (>0.25/kwh) hurts my brain

[philipma1957]

If you need real time, watch this https://blockchain.info/blocks/   . But watching that would be totally crazy from probability point of view, there's too much variance. Also it hints that bitcoincharts uses larger span for calculation because just by quick look in last 2 hrs 15 blocks have been found which is much faster than it should (blocks 339893-339907). But again, it's absolutely useless to look at data block by block. Even 1 day of data (144 blocks) is absolutely useless when watching hashrate. If you look at chart here http://nextdifficulty.com/ you can see how extremely volatile is one day hashrate compared to 1 week hashrate, thus barely usable for any assumptions...

1 day is not enough to project one diff adjustment of  15 days.  but keeping track of it is easy.


It was    5.25 at  932 blocks ---    0
it is now 4.78 at  916 blocks ---  16
it is now 4.88 at  898 blocks ---  34
it is now 5.14 at  880 blocks ---  52
it is now 5.26 at  866 blocks ---  66  
it is now 5.17 at  862 blocks ---  70
it is now 5.07 at  857 blocks ---  75
it is now 5.06 at  812 blocks ---  120
it is now 5.59 at  804 blocks ---  128
it is now 5.35 at  790 blocks ---  142 ---newest number
it is now 5.69 at  781 blocks ---  151 3:47 pm est jan 21

these are solid drops    more then the

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,821,227,056   (-2.62%)

[philipma1957]

We lost jan 22 due to bitcointalk server crash.  diff has trended down just a bit  maybe we can go to -5%  about 4 days left

current price is   225 usd


 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340158
Total BTC   13.754M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42232570407 in 546 blks     >>>> (-3.95%)
 
Network total   280001.700 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.34 / 674 s



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,562,624,122>>>>>> (-3.20%)
Adjust time:   After 545 Blocks, About 3.9 days
Hashrate(?):   290,321,246 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:20 (30.0 seconds ago)

[seriouscoin]

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

[davejh]

I'll bet this is variance. If you look at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png the hashrate didn't even touch Jan 13th lows and is rising again.

Seems likely, but the problem is that there's absolutely no way to tell other than with the benefit of hindsight in several weeks time :-) The only thing we can say is that we're well within the normal variance distribution. The 8% last time is starting to look like it was probably an overshoot but even that's still unclear at this point.

[suchmoon]

Looks like a fairly good drop. The 504-block line on bitcoinwisdom has taken a dive and with ~500 blocks to go we have roughly this for the first three 500-block segments:

-4%
-2%
-5%

We should end up below -4%.

[philipma1957]

bitcoincharts

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


is really trending down

Blocks   340181
Total BTC   13.755M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   42144271728 in 523 blks  (-4.15%)
 
Network total   257852.098 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.

  this number bears watching is has been way down some what up and now way down.
only 523 blocks to go. I will try to post back on this every few hours.

[Swimmer63]

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

[philipma1957]

...

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/


...


Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s  523 blocks   >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.
Blocks/hour   5.28 / 682 s  508 blocks   >>>>>>>   5.28/6=  0.88 or  a  12% drop
 
...
 this number bears watching is has been way down some what up and now way down.
... I will try to post back on this every few hours.

Still quite low.  MY thoughts are keep looking at this number. If it was to stay at 6 diff is 0.

[klondike_bar]

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

im pretty sure there is a STRONG correlation between "trust<1" and "ignore button use"

looks like block times are sliding a bit, possibly people realizing that the price isnt going back to $300 very soon. if it keeps up for another 2-3 days we'll see something close to -3.8% (which is good in my books - ill mine and hold some coins for the eventual price spike (a 1-yr bear market is pretty extraordinary for bitcoin, but i doubt it can drag on for another year without going bust or shooting past $600 when regulations become clearer

[philipma1957]

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

im pretty sure there is a STRONG correlation between "trust<1" and "ignore button use"

looks like block times are sliding a bit, possibly people realizing that the price isnt going back to $300 very soon. if it keeps up for another 2-3 days we'll see something close to -3.8% (which is good in my books - ill mine and hold some coins for the eventual price spike (a 1-yr bear market is pretty extraordinary for bitcoin, but i doubt it can drag on for another year without going bust or shooting past $600 when regulations become clearer

 

I bolded a strong agreement to that statement.


meanwhile short term last day or so :

Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s  523 blocks   >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.


Blocks/hour   5.28 / 682 s  508 blocks   >>>>>>>   5.28/6=  0.88 or  a  12% drop


Blocks/hour   5.27 / 684 s  487 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.27/6 = 0.878  or a 12.1%

Blocks/hour   5.07 / 711 s  480 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.07/6   = 0.845  or a 15.5% drop


Blocks/hour   4.85 / 742 s  466 blocks >>>>>>>>> 4.85/6 = 0.808 or a 19.2% drop

these numbers may  mean we do  -5% in 4 days or so.

[philipma1957]

lol you guys keep making fools of yourself by calling difficulty every time dont you?

I swear i can make better prediction by just flipping a coin.

3.5%  vs -2.5%  .....so close.

Some one should do a study to verify there is a correlation between trust level and rude, inflammatory, adolescent forum member posts.

im pretty sure there is a STRONG correlation between "trust<1" and "ignore button use"

looks like block times are sliding a bit, possibly people realizing that the price isnt going back to $300 very soon. if it keeps up for another 2-3 days we'll see something close to -3.8% (which is good in my books - ill mine and hold some coins for the eventual price spike (a 1-yr bear market is pretty extraordinary for bitcoin, but i doubt it can drag on for another year without going bust or shooting past $600 when regulations become clearer

 

I bolded a strong agreement to that statement.


meanwhile short term last day or so :

Blocks/hour   4.92 / 732 s  523 blocks   >>>>>>>   4.92/6 = 0.82 or an 18% drop short term.


Blocks/hour   5.28 / 682 s  508 blocks   >>>>>>>   5.28/6=  0.88 or  a  12% drop


Blocks/hour   5.27 / 684 s  487 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.27/6 = 0.878  or a 12.1%

Blocks/hour   5.07 / 711 s  480 blocks >>>>>>>>> 5.07/6   = 0.845  or a 15.5% drop


Blocks/hour   4.85 / 742 s  466 blocks >>>>>>>>> 4.85/6 = 0.808 or a 19.2% drop

these numbers may  mean we do  -5% in 4 days or so.

Blocks/hour   4.76 / 756 s  452 blocks      4.76/6 = 0.793   or   a 20.7%  drop
Blocks/hour   4.68 / 769 s  409 blocks      4.68/6 = 0.780      -22%
Blocks/hour   5.03 / 716 s  383 blocks      5.03/6 = 0.838     -16.2 %
Blocks/hour   5.26 / 684 s  346 blocks      5.26/6 = 0.876     -12.4%

these are a strong indication that more people or   farms or  miners are shutting down.

bitcoincharts has  the next diff under 42.  which is around a 4.7% drop

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is now starting to show  closer to that -4.7%


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   42,119,885,688  >>>>>>>  (-4.21%)
Adjust time:   After 383 Blocks, About 2.8 days
Hashrate(?):   290,932,648 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   12:45 (1.3 minutes ago)

-4.21%   is pretty good.  please notice price is now 245 usd

[judypug1956]

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   43,971,662,056
Estimated Next Difficulty:   41,866,116,133 (-4.79%)
Adjust time:   After 275 Blocks, About 2.0 days
Hashrate(?):   287,601,872 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.7 minutes--------------------------------This is nice and slow
3 blocks: 32.0 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:30 (4.5 minutes ago)


Looks like we will come close to -5%

[philipma1957]

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   340434
Total BTC   13.761M
 
Difficulty   43971662056
Estimated   41854671185 in 270 blks    >>>>>>>>     -(4.81%)  but current rate has been lower so -5% or -5.5% can happen
 
Network total   269589.548 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.14 / 701 s >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  still more then 10%   so most likely someone has power downed a big farm

[suchmoon]

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.

[Grix]

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.

Still worse than before the crash though

[philipma1957]

This is looking good for the next two weeks, exchange rate nearing $250 helps too.

Still worse than before the crash though

well under 300-350 range.

I have 11th at .5 watts

 I clear 550 a month. So feb and march = 1100

april and may = 1100 .  I am at 2200 usd  and I will need to sell of 9 sp20's and 1 s-5 .

 In may. they should get 200 each x 10 = 2000

 so I will get 4400 back. I already got enough return on these say 3k  total 7400 after power and their cost was about 4.6k

I may profit 2-2.8k