I'm considering possibilities, not posting forgone conclusions.
I observed a change in my sentiment, I questioned why, I remembered something I read about that. I dug it out and posted it as a take on what it could be.
What I noticed was that instead of reading the OP and considering it on its own merits, a small cohort of people immediately jumped in and posted exactly the same things they posted on every other thread all day long.
Can you explain why I am suddenly no longer worried about it going lower, even though now it feels more hopeless than ever. Before on every run up I was hoping that "this was the end" stages 6-10, but inside I think I knew that we had a long way to go and that it probably wasnt. Every 'calling the bottom' thread was just a manifestation of hope, pleading for it to be so.
Every big selloff, I hoped that was the captulation that had to happen, but again I kind of knew that it wasn't convincing enough.
Now things have changed. The move on the 15th look like it could actually be a capitulation bottom. Since then the general flavour of price action looks to have changed. Firstly the mini-run up. We haven't seen anything like that for a while. The sell of afterwards looks to me like profit taking and not continued downward momentum. Volume trailing off again. In the past its looked different, half hearted upward moves, with consistently petering volume. Selloffs follow, trend resumes.
Now I don't expect bears to change there tune at any time. To stay true to form they have to go through the painful steps 14-17.
It feels like I've done my time, and so now I hand the uncertainty and indecision over to the bears. Whilst I patiently wait for what will come next.
Bitocin isn't broken, the market price at any given point during its adoption is only of interest to traders:
No, the majority of people responsible for those price increases (and consequent dumps) don't seem to care about using bitcoin or how many bitcoin they have, they care about how many dollars they are gonna get when they dump higher (or how many dollars they get when they close their shorts).
I don't usually respond to troll accounts, but I will this one time. The rises might be from traders who don't really care about bitcoin, but the majority of Average Joe retail buyers would LOVE and envision a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, car, travel, etc.) THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency. That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.
I agree with 'Trollin. the pumps and dumps are speculative. I agree with Torque. Some people aren't traders. Both can be true, just because speculators speculate on the price of something it doesn't preclude the possibility that the thing itself might actually have some value.
I am definitely one of the 'morpheus meme' types. I don't buy BTC to flip for profit. I bought because I believed in it, I still do. All I have to do is manage myself and my emotions and stay calm whilst the rest of the market gyrates. Such gyration is understandable *if* this is actually the new paradigm that it could possibly be.
For those who insist on reading my posts as recommendations to buy, I'm at a loss. I've made it clear countless times that what I post on speculation is just an idea, not a guarantee. I think out loud, I am not afraid to be wrong, and I take actions based on the premise that I probably will be such that if I am I don't lose.
So if anyone wants to make that wrong assumption about what I have done, and then extrapolate that into "how you feel making all them loose" then I can only feel embarrassed for how badly you've misjudged the situation.
As Oda says posting about how my buy in price is single digits will only get backlash, I wouldn't do that. I couldn't anyway, as its now negative $xxx!
So please enough with the "losses" posts. Not being *able* to lose is the only thing that allows me to maintain an objective view on whether I should sell.
I shouldn't. Neither should anyone else that only invested what the could afford to lose and correctly said goodbye to every cent they swapped for magic
BTCeans right at the start. If it goes to zero I have no sympathy for you, even if you disregard all the premiers as being trollposts (I don't they have there opinions, I have mine) then you should have paid attention to one of the biggest permbulls that has said on many occasions it could go to zero. Caveat Emptor.
Also, don't trade, especially not emotionally. See figure 1.
NB: I break this rule occasionally to sell on the way up, and buy on the way down. Formulaically, without jeopardising the principal BTC sum (and always later regretting the buys that came too early, but never regretting the sells made near the top).
I can very easily imagine a failure scenario and know exactly what where that leaves me. Can any of you permabears actually imagine a 'worldwide adoption' scenario and how that might unfold? and, what effect that would have on you? Would you ever capitulate buy, at which point would you turn your amateur hour psychology tools on yourself and realise that the dissonance was in the mirror all along? Whats your plan for coping with the trauma of missed opportunity, because that could be almost suicide inducing in some - given the temper tantrums y'all have when anyone dares to post suggesting that "price might go up"!
You know uber bears, either could happen. You don't have any idea which it will be, neither do I. Confirmation bias will be your undoing. Things happening that point to less *speculative* price action are all well and good. What does it say about the actual adoption of the technology. Can that continue without fundamental growth in value, that won't necessarily manifest itself as a result of a run up on bitstamp, but perhaps once BTC can be used in the form of a currency collapse whereby the dollar price starts to shoot up but the BTC price stays the same. Such that exchanges are pulled along by real world value and not the other way round like it is at the moment.
