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Author Topic: 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM  (Read 79156 times)
wachtwoord
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September 19, 2012, 04:27:51 PM
 #581

1)  this is the god damn pirate wallet, 90%+ confidence.

2)  built this year, starting right when his scam was ramping up

3) died when the scam died

4)  rule out Gox / Silk Road, and it's only Pirate left:
4a)   SR does 22M in business per year, profits about 1M, and is likely quickly converted to USD
4b)  Gox isn't that stupid, wouldn't build a 500kBTC wallet (that's 5% of ALL btc) and this is not how a Gox cold storage wallet would look (why is it built in weekly / monthly regular headshots? only during this yr?  ending with a super-launder?)

It's Trendon   

At first I was asking myself how you could possibly be good at poker and yet so horrible at probability.  Then I realized you're used to being able to assume all known evidence as absolutely fact when playing poker.  Real life works a little differently buddy.

You obviously don't understand how poker works but then again neither does Micon.

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notme
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September 19, 2012, 04:56:09 PM
 #582

1)  this is the god damn pirate wallet, 90%+ confidence.

2)  built this year, starting right when his scam was ramping up

3) died when the scam died

4)  rule out Gox / Silk Road, and it's only Pirate left:
4a)   SR does 22M in business per year, profits about 1M, and is likely quickly converted to USD
4b)  Gox isn't that stupid, wouldn't build a 500kBTC wallet (that's 5% of ALL btc) and this is not how a Gox cold storage wallet would look (why is it built in weekly / monthly regular headshots? only during this yr?  ending with a super-launder?)

It's Trendon   

At first I was asking myself how you could possibly be good at poker and yet so horrible at probability.  Then I realized you're used to being able to assume all known evidence as absolutely fact when playing poker.  Real life works a little differently buddy.

You obviously don't understand how poker works but then again neither does Micon.

I'm talking card-wise evidence.  Obviously the players are a bunch of liars.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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wachtwoord
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September 19, 2012, 05:00:43 PM
 #583

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

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September 21, 2012, 04:24:00 PM
 #584



*sigh* You guys are ridiculous.   

That's all that shows under account history.

Notice that the most recent transaction of 13aZs3 was on Sep 15, leaving it with 14 BTC. Conveniently, this is the exact account balance on dropt's screenshot.

Last deposit I made to SR, coins were moved from the deposit addy within hours (leaving my SR balance with the deposit amount, and the addy balance at 0).

This is a fake screenshot (firebugged / photoshopped).


Regarding announcing a transaction to the SR address, what exactly do you want me to do?  Do you want to pick a (smallish) number and I'll send that exact amount there and send it back as soon as it confirms?

You would have to prove that you own one of the input addresses for a transaction that goes to 13aZs3.

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September 21, 2012, 04:28:38 PM
 #585

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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wachtwoord
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September 21, 2012, 04:32:45 PM
 #586

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though Smiley

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September 21, 2012, 04:35:02 PM
 #587

This chain of transactions are all SR withdrawls, follow it back (keep clicking 'Output') and it leads directly back to the large address.

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/24594389/0?show_adv=true

I've been studying the mixer lately, and it does absolutely nothing to hide the fact that you are using SR.

Heres a transaction that creates a new chain, after the previous one empties,

http://blockchain.info/tx/8b1d30919a006a05220deff1c0cf909c10830e2ec4dd66ce310a5f657e2afd8b?show_adv=true

Theres several of the inputs are known SR deposit addresses, and each transaction after it is a withdrawal. It seems like they have changed their algorithm after they stopped using the 1Dky address.

Also, someone please tell blockchain to use a fixed width font!!! It'd make it so much easier to follow tx chains if the link didn't keep moving every time I click it.

Edit: Heres the beginning of the first chain of tx, took a while to get there...
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/21445728/0?show_adv=true

It looks like their moving about 50K btc in and out every day or 2.

1D7FJWRzeKa4SLmTznd3JpeNU13L1ErEco
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September 21, 2012, 04:42:48 PM
 #588

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though Smiley

So you're not ignoring the human factor.  You are looking at the behavior of each individual over past hands.  I was talking about just calculating the probabilities for your outs.  I suppose if you include your human analysis, that would alter the out probabilities, but in live poker I doubt many people are capable of calculating those things separately.  The just calculate the probabilities for the outs, then adjust their thinking based on what they believe the other players have.

Edit: Anyway, back on track.  My point is, Micon is an idiot if he believes this address belongs to pirate and that pirate ran a ponzi.  If it did belong to pirate, it proves pirate had as many bitcoins as he had debt, thus proving it wasn't a ponzi.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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legolouman
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September 21, 2012, 07:41:35 PM
 #589

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though Smiley

So you're not ignoring the human factor.  You are looking at the behavior of each individual over past hands.  I was talking about just calculating the probabilities for your outs.  I suppose if you include your human analysis, that would alter the out probabilities, but in live poker I doubt many people are capable of calculating those things separately.  The just calculate the probabilities for the outs, then adjust their thinking based on what they believe the other players have.

Edit: Anyway, back on track.  My point is, Micon is an idiot if he believes this address belongs to pirate and that pirate ran a ponzi.  If it did belong to pirate, it proves pirate had as many bitcoins as he had debt, thus proving it wasn't a ponzi.

However, we don't know how much debt he actually had. We can assume that he could cover his Bitcoin debt, but he often mentioned another debt that was more of a legal threat.

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wachtwoord
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September 22, 2012, 12:57:35 AM
 #590

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though Smiley

So you're not ignoring the human factor.  You are looking at the behavior of each individual over past hands.  I was talking about just calculating the probabilities for your outs.  I suppose if you include your human analysis, that would alter the out probabilities, but in live poker I doubt many people are capable of calculating those things separately.  The just calculate the probabilities for the outs, then adjust their thinking based on what they believe the other players have.

Edit: Anyway, back on track.  My point is, Micon is an idiot if he believes this address belongs to pirate and that pirate ran a ponzi.  If it did belong to pirate, it proves pirate had as many bitcoins as he had debt, thus proving it wasn't a ponzi.

I also doubt many players do this. Every decent player does though Smiley

I agree with respect to Micon.

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September 22, 2012, 03:04:56 AM
 #591

However, we don't know how much debt he actually had. We can assume that he could cover his Bitcoin debt, but he often mentioned another debt that was more of a legal threat.

He's had numerous evictions and court cases. It's probable that he owes (or owed) a great deal of attorney's fees and court costs.

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September 22, 2012, 04:29:34 PM
 #592

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.


No offense, but you cant be a good poker player. Anyone can calculate the odds of cards relatively easily (or with some software), but that doesnt help you at all to gauge your opponents hands or bets.  If you were to play against a good poker player, he will use your blind faith in stats against you to win fairly easily on average, because you will become predictable.  Poker is as much about probabilities as it is about (reverse) psychology. Seems you only discovered half the game, the easy half. I would advice not playing against Micon for significant sums of money Smiley.

/OT
wachtwoord
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September 22, 2012, 04:48:12 PM
 #593

HU 4 rollz?

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September 22, 2012, 05:11:56 PM
 #594

However, we don't know how much debt he actually had. We can assume that he could cover his Bitcoin debt, but he often mentioned another debt that was more of a legal threat.

He's had numerous evictions and court cases. It's probable that he owes (or owed) a great deal of attorney's fees and court costs.

Exactly, thus the money in 1DkyBE may not have been enough.

If you love me, you'd give me a Satoshi!
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September 23, 2012, 01:23:10 AM
 #595

I made three withdrawals last night. 1) 0.4 BTC from MtGox green address. 2) 0.5 BTC from MtGox (regular withdrawal). 3) 0.6 BTC from SR.

All three transactions to 1BYhyPtxbnU59NDahJ7DVd8RnwNH1V5D1N. (afterwards, I realized it would have been better to do it to three separate addresses. derp).

I had troubles compiling Boost to use znort's analysis tool, and I don't have the time right now to fiddle with makefile paths and flags. I had wanted to use it to compare taint/hops back to 1Dky, maybe someone else can.

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September 23, 2012, 08:15:40 PM
 #596


This is a fake screenshot (firebugged / photoshopped).

No, no it isn't.  You're welcome to all the anecdotal evidence you want pointing to the contrary though.  It's not going to change the fact that 1Dky is/was a SR storage address.
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September 23, 2012, 08:23:06 PM
 #597

What if Pirate owns the Silkroad?

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zoinky
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September 23, 2012, 09:48:42 PM
 #598

What if Pirate owns the Silkroad?
Then I don't think he would have defaulted so soon.
legolouman
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September 23, 2012, 11:50:37 PM
 #599

What if Pirate owns the Silkroad?
Then I don't think he would have defaulted so soon.

If he plans on making money in illegitimate ways, why not include the ponzi?

IIRC, a lot of people suggested Pirate was working as an investor in some type of drug trade (IE: marijuana, and not necessarily medical), if that were the case, then owning SR would make sense.

If you love me, you'd give me a Satoshi!
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zoinky
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September 24, 2012, 12:48:16 AM
 #600

If he plans on making money in illegitimate ways, why not include the ponzi?

IIRC, a lot of people suggested Pirate was working as an investor in some type of drug trade (IE: marijuana, and not necessarily medical), if that were the case, then owning SR would make sense.
If he wants to make money from a ponzi why would he close up shop so soon if he has the financial backing of the SR? He could have scammed much more.  The scenario you are coming up with in your head is so far fetched.
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