1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

[wachtwoord]

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

[1714924317]

1714924317

[1714924317]

1714924317

[1714924317]

1714924317

[bitcoinBull]

*sigh* You guys are ridiculous.   

That's all that shows under account history.

Notice that the most recent transaction of 13aZs3 was on Sep 15, leaving it with 14 BTC. Conveniently, this is the exact account balance on dropt's screenshot.

Last deposit I made to SR, coins were moved from the deposit addy within hours (leaving my SR balance with the deposit amount, and the addy balance at 0).

This is a fake screenshot (firebugged / photoshopped).

Regarding announcing a transaction to the SR address, what exactly do you want me to do?  Do you want to pick a (smallish) number and I'll send that exact amount there and send it back as soon as it confirms?

You would have to prove that you own one of the input addresses for a transaction that goes to 13aZs3.

[notme]

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

[wachtwoord]

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though

[mb300sd]

This chain of transactions are all SR withdrawls, follow it back (keep clicking 'Output') and it leads directly back to the large address.

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/24594389/0?show_adv=true

I've been studying the mixer lately, and it does absolutely nothing to hide the fact that you are using SR.

Heres a transaction that creates a new chain, after the previous one empties,

http://blockchain.info/tx/8b1d30919a006a05220deff1c0cf909c10830e2ec4dd66ce310a5f657e2afd8b?show_adv=true

Theres several of the inputs are known SR deposit addresses, and each transaction after it is a withdrawal. It seems like they have changed their algorithm after they stopped using the 1Dky address.

Also, someone please tell blockchain to use a fixed width font!!! It'd make it so much easier to follow tx chains if the link didn't keep moving every time I click it.

Edit: Heres the beginning of the first chain of tx, took a while to get there...
http://blockchain.info/tx-index/21445728/0?show_adv=true

It looks like their moving about 50K btc in and out every day or 2.

[notme]

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though

So you're not ignoring the human factor.  You are looking at the behavior of each individual over past hands.  I was talking about just calculating the probabilities for your outs.  I suppose if you include your human analysis, that would alter the out probabilities, but in live poker I doubt many people are capable of calculating those things separately.  The just calculate the probabilities for the outs, then adjust their thinking based on what they believe the other players have.

Edit: Anyway, back on track.  My point is, Micon is an idiot if he believes this address belongs to pirate and that pirate ran a ponzi.  If it did belong to pirate, it proves pirate had as many bitcoins as he had debt, thus proving it wasn't a ponzi.

[legolouman]

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though

So you're not ignoring the human factor.  You are looking at the behavior of each individual over past hands.  I was talking about just calculating the probabilities for your outs.  I suppose if you include your human analysis, that would alter the out probabilities, but in live poker I doubt many people are capable of calculating those things separately.  The just calculate the probabilities for the outs, then adjust their thinking based on what they believe the other players have.

Edit: Anyway, back on track.  My point is, Micon is an idiot if he believes this address belongs to pirate and that pirate ran a ponzi.  If it did belong to pirate, it proves pirate had as many bitcoins as he had debt, thus proving it wasn't a ponzi.

However, we don't know how much debt he actually had. We can assume that he could cover his Bitcoin debt, but he often mentioned another debt that was more of a legal threat.

[wachtwoord]

In poker everything is probability. Pokerstove is basically the most used tool to analyze hands and yes, this tool calculates profitability (long term so yes probabilities) based on hand ranges. People that suck at probabilities suck at poker.

What players say or do is totally irrelevant and live tells are highly overrated. Everything to do with live live tells is marginal at best.

Okay, so if you ignore the human factor, how is my statement about all evidence being 100% reliable incorrect?  You either have seen a card or you haven't.  If you have seen it, it's either in your hand or on the table.

There is a certain probability that a certain players holds a certain pair of cards based on the prior actions of the hands and the texture of the board*. You put him on a range of cards with an associated probability distribution.

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

I think we have moved slightly off-topic though

So you're not ignoring the human factor.  You are looking at the behavior of each individual over past hands.  I was talking about just calculating the probabilities for your outs.  I suppose if you include your human analysis, that would alter the out probabilities, but in live poker I doubt many people are capable of calculating those things separately.  The just calculate the probabilities for the outs, then adjust their thinking based on what they believe the other players have.

Edit: Anyway, back on track.  My point is, Micon is an idiot if he believes this address belongs to pirate and that pirate ran a ponzi.  If it did belong to pirate, it proves pirate had as many bitcoins as he had debt, thus proving it wasn't a ponzi.

I also doubt many players do this. Every decent player does though

I agree with respect to Micon.

[myrkul]

However, we don't know how much debt he actually had. We can assume that he could cover his Bitcoin debt, but he often mentioned another debt that was more of a legal threat.

He's had numerous evictions and court cases. It's probable that he owes (or owed) a great deal of attorney's fees and court costs.

[Puppet]

* This is true when the hand is analyzed in isolation (which can be a good approximation). I reality all the actions of everyone including what hands went to showdown in the previous hands of all sessions played with every player are also input variables.

No offense, but you cant be a good poker player. Anyone can calculate the odds of cards relatively easily (or with some software), but that doesnt help you at all to gauge your opponents hands or bets.  If you were to play against a good poker player, he will use your blind faith in stats against you to win fairly easily on average, because you will become predictable.  Poker is as much about probabilities as it is about (reverse) psychology. Seems you only discovered half the game, the easy half. I would advice not playing against Micon for significant sums of money .

/OT

[wachtwoord]

HU 4 rollz?

[legolouman]

However, we don't know how much debt he actually had. We can assume that he could cover his Bitcoin debt, but he often mentioned another debt that was more of a legal threat.

He's had numerous evictions and court cases. It's probable that he owes (or owed) a great deal of attorney's fees and court costs.

Exactly, thus the money in 1DkyBE may not have been enough.

[bitcoinBull]

I made three withdrawals last night. 1) 0.4 BTC from MtGox green address. 2) 0.5 BTC from MtGox (regular withdrawal). 3) 0.6 BTC from SR.

All three transactions to 1BYhyPtxbnU59NDahJ7DVd8RnwNH1V5D1N. (afterwards, I realized it would have been better to do it to three separate addresses. derp).

I had troubles compiling Boost to use znort's analysis tool, and I don't have the time right now to fiddle with makefile paths and flags. I had wanted to use it to compare taint/hops back to 1Dky, maybe someone else can.

[dropt]

This is a fake screenshot (firebugged / photoshopped).

No, no it isn't.  You're welcome to all the anecdotal evidence you want pointing to the contrary though.  It's not going to change the fact that 1Dky is/was a SR storage address.

[legolouman]

What if Pirate owns the Silkroad?

[zoinky]

What if Pirate owns the Silkroad?

Then I don't think he would have defaulted so soon.

[legolouman]

What if Pirate owns the Silkroad?

Then I don't think he would have defaulted so soon.

If he plans on making money in illegitimate ways, why not include the ponzi?

IIRC, a lot of people suggested Pirate was working as an investor in some type of drug trade (IE: marijuana, and not necessarily medical), if that were the case, then owning SR would make sense.

[zoinky]

If he plans on making money in illegitimate ways, why not include the ponzi?

IIRC, a lot of people suggested Pirate was working as an investor in some type of drug trade (IE: marijuana, and not necessarily medical), if that were the case, then owning SR would make sense.

If he wants to make money from a ponzi why would he close up shop so soon if he has the financial backing of the SR? He could have scammed much more.  The scenario you are coming up with in your head is so far fetched.

[legolouman]

If he plans on making money in illegitimate ways, why not include the ponzi?

IIRC, a lot of people suggested Pirate was working as an investor in some type of drug trade (IE: marijuana, and not necessarily medical), if that were the case, then owning SR would make sense.

If he wants to make money from a ponzi why would he close up shop so soon if he has the financial backing of the SR? He could have scammed much more.  The scenario you are coming up with in your head is so far fetched.

And that's why I like it.

[Shadow383]

If he plans on making money in illegitimate ways, why not include the ponzi?

IIRC, a lot of people suggested Pirate was working as an investor in some type of drug trade (IE: marijuana, and not necessarily medical), if that were the case, then owning SR would make sense.

If he wants to make money from a ponzi why would he close up shop so soon if he has the financial backing of the SR? He could have scammed much more.  The scenario you are coming up with in your head is so far fetched.

Because even the cash the silk road ops bring in is peanuts compared to the amount of pirate's interest payments. Those obligations peaked at ~$500k per week.
Looking back, I still can't believe some people genuinely thought he was legit...