ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[237]

It feels like the same discussion is repeating itself after 10-20 pages over and over.

[philipma1957]

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

 so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc.    and a .3btc stick for 2btc

 this was pushed into divs payout  and divs have been huge.


All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining   

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been.  3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

[Mausini]

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

 so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc.    and a .3btc stick for 2btc

 this was pushed into divs payout  and divs have been huge.


All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining   

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been.  3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

you are ridiculous. get out of here

[VeeMiner]

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

[radiumsoup]

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

[twmz]

No problem learning more and getting less confused with each clarification
In Friedcat's dividend where did that 0.00000001 come from?

Before friedcat sends the dividends transaction, he sends another transaction that is used to identify how many shares each address owns.  If you own 1 share, you get paid 0.00000001.  If you own 5 shares, you get paid 0.0000005.  If you own 2000 shares, you get paid 0.00002000, etc.  Since there are people that do own only 1 share, this transaction always has at least one 0.00000001 payment in it and so it always looks like spam.

Thanks for explaining the client change and hope that algorithm adaption occurs sometime in the near future
Is their any time-frame at this stage on that

Gavin didn't say.

[JSMill]

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

I agree that people should not be upset about the price dropping, but at the same time customers may be hesitant to buy if prices are always dropping (may reduce long term revenues).  I am a fan of keeping the price stable if there is still strong demand as friedcat stated.  

Currently AM still has 0 competition in terms of companies that can reliably ship you an ASIC in a reasonable time frame.  Until BFL and other companies actually do catch up and start shipping in a timely fashion, I don't think AM should react to their pricing.

[JordanL]

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

I believe he's thinking along the lines of those who would purchase blades days/hours before the price reduction.

An idea: announced, incremental price decreases. Blades mine ~X per hour/day... price of each blade/USB decreases by ~X per hour/day.

Dang I'm a smart one. Sitting around thinking of more work for friedcat.

[binaryFate]

An idea: announced, incremental price decreases. Blades mine ~X per hour/day... price of each blade/USB decreases by ~X per hour/day.

Not a good idea IMHO. I'd find better to offer discounts for large orders, with these offers changing over time. Something along these lines. Little step by little step you can change pricing policy in a more subtle way than just saying "yesterday was 2.5, today is 1.5".

[metavox]

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

 so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc.    and a .3btc stick for 2btc

 this was pushed into divs payout  and divs have been huge.


All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining   

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been.  3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

Your basic analysis is correct, but your conclusions assume AM has no gameplan for this scenario.  Any company selling products in a competitive space needs to assume this will happen.  Products sell for premiums when there is minimal competition.  Prices drop to increase sales volume when competition increases and demand lowers.  Margins shrink.  Meanwhile, any responsible company will already have a successor product in the pipeline to bring on the market when the conditions are correct (profit has dropped too far, old inventory has cleared, competitive environment is favorable, etc).  The fact that they sold ~40% of their sticks at top premium price is amazing.  I'm sure they will offer price reduction soon enough to move the rest of the inventory.

At this point, we're looking toward the first conclusion of a product cycle within the ASIC space as competition comes online.  What AM does here is pivotal to investor confidence.  If they have been planning well, we won't see a huge change in business performance.  If they haven't planned for this, we'll see the gap you are predicting.  Place your bets.

[CanadianGuy]

It's obvious the only people who want the price to decrease are the ones WANTING TO BUY SOME at a discount, with little to no interest in friedcats success.   These fools are inexperienced at life and half no idea how supply and demand works.  If he can get away with selling these sticks for 2 bitcoins, he will!  If he could get away with selling them for 5 bitcoins, he would!  Don't kid yourselves, the mining industry isn't as easy to get into as it used to be.  If you want to make easy bitcoins, go roll some satoshidice with your BFL preorders.  Ignorant punks!  lol  

[metavox]

Has there been any word about the price of blades and/or USBs being reduced? I'm an advocate for selling them at as high a price point as the market allows, even though I'm purchasing them, but with with the recent spike in difficulty it would seem to make sense to consider a price reduction. A definitive yes or no over the next week or two would be great, I can't be the only one hesitating to place more orders due to this uncertainty.

they should be taken off the market for a while and then offered for lower price later as not to piss off the early buyers too much Obviously there is a lot of space for cheaper prices as ASICMINER can produce the blades and USB sticks really cheap.

and yes, this has been discussed before and I'm sure will be discussed again.

Why bother taking them off the market for any time at all? It's not like the buyers expected the price to stay high forever - every single one of them paid a high premium for immediate delivery while difficulty was (relatively) low compared to other device offerings. All buyers of dedicated single-purpose mining hardware know the hardware is a depreciating asset, it should come as absolutely no surprise to them when the price drops. If people get upset about it, it's their own damned fault for having unrealistic expectations.

I believe he's thinking along the lines of those who would purchase blades days/hours before the price reduction.

An idea: announced, incremental price decreases. Blades mine ~X per hour/day... price of each blade/USB decreases by ~X per hour/day.

Dang I'm a smart one. Sitting around thinking of more work for friedcat.

Demand drives pricing.  That's it.  If people are buying, and demand is high, you always charge a premium price. Always.  When demand changes, you shift your price *reactively*.  The AM guys are the only ones who know the true demand.  If they feel demand is still high, there is no business motivation to change pricing.  If they feel it is lagging, and if they have a lot more inventory to move, I guarantee that the prices will start to correct downward to compensate.

[sngwinner]

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

 so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc.    and a .3btc stick for 2btc

 this was pushed into divs payout  and divs have been huge.


All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining   

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been.  3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

Your basic analysis is correct, but your conclusions assume AM has no gameplan for this scenario.  Any company selling products in a competitive space needs to assume this will happen.  Products sell for premiums when there is minimal competition.  Prices drop to increase sales volume when competition increases and demand lowers.  Margins shrink.  Meanwhile, any responsible company will already have a successor product in the pipeline to bring on the market when the conditions are correct (profit has dropped too far, old inventory has cleared, competitive environment is favorable, etc).  The fact that they sold ~40% of their sticks at top premium price is amazing.  I'm sure they will offer price reduction soon enough to move the rest of the inventory.

At this point, we're looking toward the first conclusion of a product cycle within the ASIC space as competition comes online.  What AM does here is pivotal to investor confidence.  If they have been planning well, we won't see a huge change in business performance.  If they haven't planned for this, we'll see the gap you are predicting.  Place your bets.

I also think the OPs point about the share price dropping is probably not right. The dividends are not going to be this high forever. I think everyone knows this and this is priced into the share price. At the current dividends you have an annual return of something crazy like 52-65%(ball parking). I don't think people are going to be dumping shares in droves because they will only be getting a 25% annual return. Especially when there aren't many actual ways to put saved bitcoins to work. If AM continues to keep their share of the total hash rate constant I don't think the share price will be dropping in any significance.

Huge dividends from hw sales are a nice bonus but a consistent 25% annual return is great compared to most other investment opportunities with your btc.

[SaintFlow]

With todays change in bitcoins exchange value,
oh dare i tell you of indirect discount
for blades and sticks and witness this mount
of gox increase my little dividend collection box.

[helixone]

It's obvious the only people who want the price to decrease are the ones WANTING TO BUY SOME at a discount, with little to no interest in friedcats success.   These fools are inexperienced at life and half no idea how supply and demand works.  If he can get away with selling these sticks for 2 bitcoins, he will!  If he could get away with selling them for 5 bitcoins, he would!  Don't kid yourselves, the mining industry isn't as easy to get into as it used to be.  If you want to make easy bitcoins, go roll some satoshidice with your BFL preorders.  Ignorant punks!  lol  

Friedcat's success is not impacted by the price of AM shares. In the absence of fundamental changes in AM's business, I'd say we *should* all want the price to decline, *especially* if one wishes to reinvest proceeds back into AM shares. However, I don't see any reasons for it to significantly decline, as AM continues to deliver and develops a reputation as a reliable performer, it will carry a "blue chip" premium.

To quote the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet:

"To refer to a personal taste of mine, I'm going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying -- except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore."

-helixone

[Lohoris]

It's obvious the only people who want the price to decrease are the ones WANTING TO BUY SOME at a discount, with little to no interest in friedcats success.   These fools are inexperienced at life and half no idea how supply and demand works.  If he can get away with selling these sticks for 2 bitcoins, he will!  If he could get away with selling them for 5 bitcoins, he would!

+1

That's the same kind of people who complain when alt currencies get dumped, but don't buy them instead (implying they don't really believe them to be valuable either).

With todays change in bitcoins exchange value,
oh dare i tell you of indirect discount

Wrong.
Since they are priced in BTC and using them you earn BTC, the exchange ratio with other currencies is totally irrelevant.

If you are long on bitcoin it would be a good time to get a blade

Wrong: it would be a good time to buy bitcoins, if you spend them to get a blade is irrelevant, as I explained above.

[stripykitteh]

With todays change in bitcoins exchange value,
oh dare i tell you of indirect discount
for blades and sticks and witness this mount
of gox increase my little dividend collection box.

Certainly it will put the blades within reach of more people if they've got fiat on hand to pay for one. But the returns measured in fiat will be lower as well. If you are long on bitcoin it would be a good time to get a blade (well, better than a couple of weeks ago, anyway).

Oh, and I agree; MOAR dividends for us!

[Faraday]

If anyone is looking to purchase direct shares I'm selling a few (50) current price: 2.5 btc each, auction ending in 4 hours.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227498.0

[philipma1957]

pretty pointless discussion going on..
AM will make new price finding auctions as soon as its necessary, the update tells us it is still not.
Also the guess with 30-40$ cost per stick is propably much too high since the blades cost them around 100$ in production. The margin must be somewhat equal or they wouldnt take the hassle. My guess is 5-10$ for a stick.

 so AM sold 1btc blade for 50btc.    and a .3btc stick for 2btc

 this was pushed into divs payout  and divs have been huge.


All I am saying is 3 income sources;

1) blade sales
2)stick sales
3)mining   

AM will not keep 1 and 2 as high as they have been.  3) is kind of fixed in BTC count 22-30% of the hash. So expect an adjustment in divs and in stock price.

Your basic analysis is correct, but your conclusions assume AM has no gameplan for this scenario.  Any company selling products in a competitive space needs to assume this will happen.  Products sell for premiums when there is minimal competition.  Prices drop to increase sales volume when competition increases and demand lowers.  Margins shrink.  Meanwhile, any responsible company will already have a successor product in the pipeline to bring on the market when the conditions are correct (profit has dropped too far, old inventory has cleared, competitive environment is favorable, etc).  The fact that they sold ~40% of their sticks at top premium price is amazing.  I'm sure they will offer price reduction soon enough to move the rest of the inventory.

At this point, we're looking toward the first conclusion of a product cycle within the ASIC space as competition comes online.  What AM does here is pivotal to investor confidence.  If they have been planning well, we won't see a huge change in business performance.  If they haven't planned for this, we'll see the gap you are predicting.  Place your bets.

I did I counted my winnings and left the table. (I do keep an eye out to see the next play on AM's part.)

[SebastianJu]

Hm... i read people still bought BFL-Miners "last week"... i wonder how many could be "saved" when Asicminer would be so known for their Miner-Offers like BFL is...

Even though i see that friedcat would have work with it, for example explaining what website they want, speak about design and functionality im interested to see the effect.

What effect would have advertising at bitcointalk.org? What effect other internet marketing techniques?

I think it could lead to much more sells and maybe even to less poor guys thinking BFL is the one and only legit Miner-Company.

At the end only friedcat can decide such things. And it looks like its not top priority. I tend to believe friedcat thinks there are other things he can do to maximize dividends. At least he shows it all the time. But a rethink cant be bad.

Dude if you were referring to me then no I did not buy the miner last week, I did that ages ago. I think it was before the IPO divs were over. . I got it when BTC was above $230 before the nosedive.

I dont believe it was you. I saw someone writing he "ordered" a week ago. And i wondered how this still can happen.