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I would like to ask everyone here who is into sports betting for some advice. I've come to realize that maybe I should start fading myself. I've noticed that my recent gambling journey hasn't been profitable, so I'm thinking maybe I'm missing something. I tried an experiment by just recording my picks and then betting the opposite of my analysis. Surprisingly, this resulted in profitable betting.

So how about you? Have you ever thought of this idea when your picks aren't hitting? I mean, if we keep following how we think and feel with our picks and it doesn't translate to profit, there's no reason to continue following the same strategy. But are we comfortable with betting against our own picks just for the sake of fading ourselves strategy?

Your lucky day I think, because no one can give an accurate predictions, as far as sports bets is concerned, more also while you should consider betting outside the thought of making a profits may be that is the reason you are not finding satisfaction in you current betting format, what I will advise you is that, you should bet based on the confidence that you have made the analysis based on your own understanding and also having it at the back of your mind that gambling is based on luck and not skills.

I feel more comfortable losing by following my analysis than by going against it but I still do that sometimes to break the pattern or the losing streak. The problem is I didn't keep a record so I cannot really compare. If going by memory alone then I guess it's 1 or 2 out of 3 and then I go back to my usual style.

No, confidence does not bring winning in gambling. It only brings about hope that we would win in a particular bet. Infact most of the times i was confidence with the game i had selected i mostly don't win because i choose the games out of passion and not based on the quality and performances of the team which i mostly experience in sports gambling.

Gambling is luck, which means once luck is on your side you will win. If your bets were analyzed well then there are also chances of you wining as well. Sometimes i just take a few games like two or three then i use a big amount to stake it, it mostly come out well anytime i do this.

When I'm confident in my picks, I end up losing more and I don't know why that happens. I did a kind of experiment few weeks ago in which I compared the profitability of playing heavy bets of supposed sure small odds with that of playing lower amount in big odds that have high risks.  While I had higher win rate with the small odds, there was lower win rate with the bigger odds. Consequently, I realise that I was better of with the bigger odds in terms of peace of mind and even profit margin. This may sound funny but the reason is that with small odd and heavy stake, a single loss will destroy several wins... I couldn't just shoulder the losses and pretend that nothing happened
Unlike the bigger odds which I can afford to lose several bets and have a single win clear them and still put me in profit. So I realised that the more confident I become, the less profitable it gets for me.

Confidence doesn't mean a positive record of outcomes on long run. Sometimes I'm pretty sure about a match's result, but in the end the result is completely the opposite from what I firstly expected. There isn't a general rule or recipe on what you should do to improve your performance in sports betting. Even in this niche of gambling industry outcomes are too random to be predicted with some accuracy on long term. You still has to rely on luck, anyway. That is sad, but it's true.

Sometimes games' results are so unbelievable that we start thinking they must have been fixed, as the only possible explanation for what is in front of our eyes, going completely against our expectations, as if we didn't have any notion of reality to predict the result so wrongly. However, at same time we can't prove anything, so all we can do is to accept the loss and move ahead.

Gambling is purely a game of luck. If you’re out of luck, you will never experience winning your bets. Even if your confidence to bet is high, that won’t still guarantee winning. But if luck is on your side, no matter how unpredictable the outcome of the game, you will still end up in profits even if you aren’t sure of your bets.

However, when it comes to sportsbetting, if you’re quite good in your game analysis because you know how the game is played, sometimes the outcome turn into skill based. But most of the time, regardless what type of game as long as it’s gambling, it’s always luck based.

Nope, unfortunately. The ones which often turns into winning bets, personally, are those which I weren't that much confident of. Well to some it would be frustrating but I just accepted how gambling works. However, it just feels good whenever outcome meets my expectation in particular with the teams I assumed to win. It quite gives me the feeling that I am not only guessing but more of analyzing the game and that's more fulfilling for me. But again, we just don't have control of gambling outcomes. There are times you don't really feel the confidence but you end up winning and this is not fulfilling on my end however, I still continue doing some random bets for the sake of calibrating my luck with the games I invested time analyzing. Well, what matters is that I enjoy watching games in sportsbetting.

But I do see this often with card game players especially those who knows how to bluff and card count wherein they seem to be doing what they planned.

Sometimes, when the results of your analysis do not align with your expectations, it might be a smart move to change your perspective by fading yourself. We often find that trusting our intuition in betting can lead us astray, particularly if we are not being objective in our assessments.

I find your trial of jotting down your picks and afterward betting against them rather intriguing, and it appears to have worked out well for you. It serves as an indication that at times, looking at things from a different angle can help break free from habits or distorted perceptions.

I haven't personally tried this approach, but your recount piques my interest in its utility for breaking free from a losing streak's grip. The concept underscores the significance of adaptability and willingness to experiment with new tactics in the realm of betting. However, betting against our own selections can pose a mental challenge, and it might feel discordant to ever move away from our intuitive leanings. Unsettling as those sensations may be, if this alternative route leads to greater benefits, perhaps it warrants deliberation.

I've done that a few times because i'd sometimes have a terrible record in certain sports, and during those times it only made me lose more bets. I'd rather endure these losses than fade my bets again as I could miss the timing for my luck to turn the other way around.

However, I do use that strategy against the bettors that I follow and are consistent at choosing the losing teams based on their profit or record.

There's no problem with that strategy if you don't invest emotion in gambling. But the thing is, we gamble in the first place because we are having fun, and profit is just secondary. You know, there's no challenge in gambling if we are not having fun, so the best fulfillment as a gambler is when you are having fun and being profitable at the same time.

You can bet against yourself but learn to enjoy it in the long run, because if not, you are just gambling with no sense, it's just all about the greed of money, just like working in a company, you make money but you don't love your job, how would you feel?

I will say yes but people will have different experiences about this. I prefer to bet with high amount of money before and I did lost almost all the time and my losses were far more than my profits. But I later prefer to bet with small amount of money and the confidence increased because if I lose, it is just small amount of money. But I noticed that my strategy changed and I win than lose. But I do not care if I lose than win because gambling is not a way I am looking for money anymore.

If your analysis always ends in losses and when you bet against your own analysis and actually win, then that means there is something wrong with your analysis and you should try to find out why that happened. Because when you keep trying to bet against your own analysis, that means you are constantly trying to fight your own beliefs. Over time it will lead to your lack of confidence in betting and that will cause other problems. So personally, I would rather bet according to what I believe, that even if I lose, at least I lose by believing in myself.

Confident will not affect your luck, but since it is related to sports, it depends on where your confidence come from. Is the confidence come because you have good analysis/researches or is the confidence come from your own feeling only? Other thing is back to luck because sometime luck also take a big part in sports betting. There can be something really unexpected happens many times in sports, even we can lose some bets with so low odds.

It happens sometimes that you get tired of losing and frustrated that you try out many options and this seem like one but it is not profitable all the time. If you get a right prediction and bet on it, it will fail.





Some gamblers also lost hope in their analysis and started betting against it and after winning few times, they started getting their analysis right and when they bet against it they started losing. You understand what that means?


It means you have not been getting your analysis right which is why you bet against it and get it correct. Check this then, what will make you bet wrongly and win? You can only bet rightly for you to win.

The thing about betting, especially sports betting, is that I bet on what matches I will bet on. Before I bet, I make sure that I will review who's team or players will be playing, and next I will do analysis, looking at the stats of each team or player. So, for example, look at the stats of each team or player. So, for example, in an NBA match, will I really like to bet? Before I decide which team I will bet on, I will view the standings of the team and their conditions. In short, I will do my own analysis first. I'm not a bettor who will bet just because I feel like betting on this team. No, I want to become rational and do my primary analysis so that I will have a better chance of winning the bet. So for those who like to bet, be rational and think before you bet on a team or player.

Confidence and luck are not the same, many confidence on a game or sure bets still leads to losses, I don't want to choose a side, I would rather gamble with what I can afford to lose and enjoy the game instead, confidence in gambling is like you saying that you can see the air.

I know a brother who is into sports betting, he kept losing for a long period of time and is life changed after he choose basketball and abandoned football bets, I don't know how he pulled this off but man, this basketball games is very good to him, as if this was where he was supposed to be right from the beginning.

It is not a must to keep putting your head into football, you can try other sports just to see what happen, in your own case you want to win but in my own case I won't mind losing $5 on a game every week, like I make over 100s over dollars per week anyway, when the time is right luck will come looking for me.

Absolutely right. Nothing is permanent. If you manage to do the same thing several times, one day it will fail. Going ahead without making any decisions to change is tantamount to making the same mistake over and over again. Gambling cannot be patterned. Here, you need to take risks and make decisions that, from the outside, seem rash, but that’s what games are for to catch your luck and take risks every time.

That's right, gambling is a game of chance, even though we are confident in our choices, whether it's a high betting amount or something else, that doesn't change the portion of our own luck. I once felt that I was sure that I could win and indeed the result was that I could win, but of course it wasn't because of anything, but because luck was on our side. What you say is true, even though we are doubtful or unsure, if luck is on our side then victory can happen, and after that control in the future is ours alone.

Remembering that sports betting can sometimes lead to skill, but I think luck still plays a role, but maybe not as much as other gambling games which only depend on luck. because indeed all games that are said to be gambling are closely related to luck. What we have to pay attention to is that we don't force ourselves by continuing to play to chase luck because that is not the right action. luck will come by itself.

From what you said, I think there is a bit of emotions attached to your selections, it might be fan factor or rival factor which reduces your possibility of winning most of your bet. Confident betting should be based on team's current performance, comparing their stats in the season against their opponent but yet doesn't still assure us of winning the bet. Betting against our own picks might be an awful way to make selections, just imagine giving one of the relegated premier league club a straight win against Manchester city, it is more likely to favor City than any of them despite their is a bit possibility of City losing to any of them. We bet on the ones with the highest percentage of winning other than against it.

I never thought like that because when placing a bet, I trying to analyze each teams or players and pick the teams. Although that can not always gives me winning but I don't thinks as you thinks. Perhaps I will try it later to see if that also works for me and if that is works, hmm that will surprising me because that can helps me to win. Yeah, perhaps that will not makes me comfortable because I use a different ways to place my bets but if that can works, I will use it. So far, I am not too often wins in sports betting because I know that I do not have enough knowledge to knowing each team.

This gave me a really good laugh ;D. You are one luck guy. How many times did you try it? And how has it been working for you so far. Was it a one-off thing? I want to know. Please come back and answer me.

I mean, this is a very crazy thing to do, and I could do crazy once in a while are long as it is within the boundaries of what I can afford to lose. I know it is not going to work but I'll try it anyways. Betting against my own picks is mad, I wonder how I would feel if lost. I could do it like this, I will bet against my own picks, and then also bet on own picks.

Being confident in your belief doesn't guarantee a win, anything can happen in games and bettings, and that is why we cannot base the success or win of any bettor on expertise alone but on luck as well. And whether the chance is so high or not, you may still lose a match, that is why no one should even think of the perfect selection in gambling that will warrant unnecessary confidence. You can now vary this with your reverse strategy, you will realise that it is still the same thing, do not ever think a certain strategy/pattern will save you completely, it might have just done you good that time, but what about next time? If I may ask you as well, how many times have you tried this reverse strategy and how many months have you tried it at the same time? These are part of what you will need to test to ascertain the credibility of it. And if, at all, it starts earning for you consistently (which I think will not happen), then you should know that your main strategy is not good in the first place, if not, it should still be delivering good winnings to you, and I mean at least 75% winning.

Sports betting is the easiest and safest betting aspect of gambling and if anyone cannot get it right through it, such a person may not be able to get it right with anything gambling ever.  Still, just for a piece of advice, should in case this reverse strategy fails you and your main strategy is not working as well, you may turn to straight winning or losing matches with a reasonable odd attached to it. It is the simplest betting strategy in sports betting, and once you know the information of the teams that would bet, the rest is a natural workover for everyone. However, combining games like many greedy gamblers do is an issue here, and the more you combine games, the less the possibility that you win that ticket.

Good luck and I hope to read about your progress again!

The goal here is to profit. So if betting against your pick would be a working strategy for you then so be it. If there's a good result, why not? For me it doesn't matter if you're not using your own pick as long as your choice has a more chance to win. It's not about confidence because that doesn't guarantee a sure win. Gambling is still a game of luck regardless of what games you play. Therefore, everything is uncertain.

when I make certain bets I am always sure of the result I am going to get.
because I play specific events, with a short timeframe, live...

example in tennis, a player should falls and breaks his arm or it is practically impossible for me to make a mistake in betting on a certain point or set.

the risk of losing is part of the "business". It's pointless to think that you can ALWAYS place infallible bets... there is alwyas the risk.

Of course I get a good result but with low income (maybe @1.10 up to @1.40)

It means you have a bad analysis and prediction, but gladly you can take advantage over it, so you're bet against of your prediction which mean it will increase the chance your bet would be right.

In my case, yeah when I'm confident with my picks, the result are mostly win. But, it doesn't mean I make a lot money, I won when the odds are low, but I lose when the odds are high. Not to mention casino usually charge additional fees or bad conversion rate which will take your money if you only win small.

I'm not the one participating in the match to be confident about it. Yes, there are times that I'm confident that I'm going to win, which is based on factors such as how well a team has been performing or how "fair" the match appears to be. Still, that doesn't mean much; there are times I was certain, but I lost. Even if the odds were in my favor, it's not something you can predict, as these things can easily change in the blink of an eye. In my opinion, confidence can work counterintuitively in gambling, leading to more and larger bets that may eventually lead to greater losses.

It's safe to claim that gambling is mostly about luck and probabilities; although sport betting involves other parameters as well, we have to face the fact that they cannot always be on our side, nor can we speculate on the outcome.

so what you're saying in essence is that if I'm betting a game that involves man city playing a smaller team like west ham or shiefield united, If I initially played that manchester City was winning the match that I should later change my choice and stake that the reverse will be the case? And you think that it will work out well? Interesting.

While we know that sometimes when it involves teams that you aren't sure if thier form that you can just use guess work and the game might enter, I don't think it will work well in the long run and that one can actually choose to use that as a strategy to placing your bet  sports betting involves doing real time analysis of the teams involved in the game and not just being to guessy or random with your predictions. Every team that's involved in iether EPL or champions league and all the major leagues out thier don't just play because they want to be part of the tournament. They play basically to win and bigger clubs will always put in effort to win smaller ones and that's why doing a random bet in favour of smaller teams would in most cases not end well.

It is a normal thing as I can say. Personally when I consider that my picks has not been favourable for some periods of time, I will always dare to pick the opposite sides which my instincts would have most doubts that it can never be the winning ones.

Though in such switching modes, I will always minimize the amount of my stakes because my confidence never lyes there. The honest fact from my side of experience is that it does not make differences to say it has been a winning trick for me. It still lyes on the game of luck.

If an industry is betting with a particular strategy and always having numerous losing streaks then the best thing to do is to restrategise, use another strategy or method like you did and maybe things could get better or they could be lucky to start winning their bet. Yes luck plays a role in gambling but a good strategy matters as well, if an individuals strategy is not good enough then they'll keep facing losses.

 There was once when I used to bet on multiple games of about 20-30 asides with little stakes, although it worked once and I felt that's a good strategy but the rest of the times I was very unfortunate but when I cut my number of games to about 3-6 and staked a little high, I noticed my number if losing streaks reduced and since then you'll barely see me bet beyond 6 or 10 games no matter how sure the games look.

That means you are getting better at it. Congratulations, bro.

Me too, I checked my settled bets in 10 pages and I can see I have more wins than my losses. I didn't compute the odds though with how much I win or lose. I just used the number of wins versus the number of losses and I can see that it's like 60+ percent winning rate which I think is okay-ish. Not perfect but good enough.
Being a sports predictor is not easy especially when you have teams that you are a fan of. It could ruin the choice which means losses because you are following your emotions instead of profits first. I think that's what I want to change now. It's going to be difficult but if I could somehow avoid betting for the team that I am a fan of then I won't be losing more.

It worked for you then does not mean that it will work for you again. Try it again and come tell us on this thread your result if it worked again for you. I believe that luck was what played out that that was why your instinct told you to bet in opposite of your picks.

Sometimes our luck comes from our inner mind spirit that will direct you on how to place the bet in order for you to win it, but the amount that you will use to place the bet will be your own personal decision. This is why you see that some gamblers use big amount and they become lucky to win very big and vice versa.

I have often thought this about this idea. Because when I favor a team, that team often loses. When my gambling losses increase. Then I started thinking about it. Like you I thought that since my losses are high if I keep my betting analysis at the same level and take the opposite when placing bets then I may win there. According to sources this idea is correct. But even if you implement the idea in terms of betting, I still don't have the courage to take such a decision. Because after analysis I have no scope to support the opposite team. No one wants to make a mistake knowingly. However, my results suggest that such a decision should be made. But I definitely dream of using this idea to change my results. I will use this idea to my advantage.

Hmmm sometimes if it works on you, it will work again when you try it for the second time, It depends on how luck attached on you. Sometimes, being a confident on your bets leads you to bet bigger amount on your next try which results you to overspending in gambling, the confident feeling that you've felt should assess accordingly because spiking up on your emotions will results you in the unexpected decisions that are made.

Interesting, it seems like you are trying to review your bet after not making much profit. and yeah, you tried to do the experiment as you said. For me, I don't plan to bet on the opposite of what we have predicted based on the analysis results. But, if you do as you say and win the bet, that's good for you. At the very least, you know your analysis results are wrong again. In fact, there is nothing wrong with what you are saying, this is just a matter of our perspective in terms of sports betting. Not infrequently, I experience the same situation as you. for me personally, this is something that is commonplace in sports betting.
In fact, we don't always bet following the same strategy. In fact, we also involve feelings in analyzing. For example, for example, if I don't believe that the team I choose will produce the results I expect. for example, my favirot team will compete against other strong teams. or, whatever it is that clouds our choices when making decisions when going to a betting session. There are only variables that cause our analysis to not be as accurate as we hope, the most crucial factor is the problem of luck.

Besides, maybe you and I didn't really pay attention when analyzing. There could also be other causes, which lead to defeat. After that, we try to review the results of our bets and analysis. The main point is, whatever it is, there is always a risk in every betting session we make. In fact, someone can randomly bet according to what he wants without involving analysis. If our luck is high, victory will not go anywhere. If we have to lose, no matter how clever we are in our analysis, in the end there are only two probabilities, winning or losing. Even then, if we bet on a team, for example, the option is 1×2 betting. Personally, I always involve many options and variables when carrying out a betting session. after all, everything is to minimize losses. one more thing, I also don't hesitate not to bet if I really don't have confidence in my analysis.

Gamblers have different preferences when it comes to betting. Some gamblers trust their decisions because of their ego; they think they are always right, and some don't care; all they want is to enjoy themselves, whether the picks come from their analysis or a third party.

For me, I don't mind having a choice from a third party pick I always do that when I am betting in a horse racing because some people have inside knowledge on what's going inside so they can give accurate tips, for me if you want to make a profit from gambling you have to be flexible and open to suggestions and tips you cannot be perfect all the time in gambling.

Do you mean betting on something that is contrary to your analysis and then you win? If yes then I wouldn't say that it's wrong, or I mean I don't think there's anything wrong with doing that. Just remember that analysis or strategy is just something to increase your chances of winning and not to ensure or guarantee that you will actually win at the end of the session.

This means that any result can still happen even if for example you bet by applying the analysis or strategy that you believe in, and that is natural because after all we are talking about gambling which is an activity that can never be predicted with 100% accuracy, and from the story you experienced you managed to win by betting the opposite of the analysis you had and the result won, meaning you are really lucky, and also means that luck is the most important point in gambling. On the other hand, I have also experienced almost the same scenario where I did not expect to win at all or when I bet in a perfunctory way but the result won, and I think this is normal because after all this is like gambling.

If that's working for you then nothing is wrong in that approach but for me my own picks work most of the time and that's why I never bet against those.

The win rate of my own picks is quite high because I only bet against the much weaker teams and most of the times leading teams crush the weak teams easily.

I place few bets per month but those work for me. I place bets on cricket events most of the time but sometimes I place bets on other events as well.

 

This idea has been shared in the past on different topics where the OP talked about reversed gambling, which means to go against the predictions of the majority of gamblers. For example, if lots of gamblers are predicting Man-U to defeat Liverpool, you decided to stake the reverse of what the majority have predicted. It kind of works most of the of the time, but not all the time, Reverse gambling doesn't give you a win all the time, just as your real pick that you are so confident about will not give you a win all the time either. 

This is what I felt back in the days when i was younger gambler , I remember that confidence bring me hundred bucks(considering that I am just teenager those days) because when i have this feeling then the number i choose mostly comes to win.

But nowadays it changes mate, because  now the more confident I am? is the more I am losing this is same reason why i am now gamble to enjoy and let the luck brings me the wins .

After feeling confident and ready to wager the house, you say, "Nah, maybe I'll bet AGAINST myself." Seriously mental! Besides the game, betting is about your thinking. Humans are odd, overconfident, and assume they know more than they do. That's why fading your own picks is so effective. It's like wrestling with your ego to change your perspective. Fading isn't the end. It's a tool to test your instincts. You must change. Use data, algorithms, and whatever else to improve your decision-making. You must combine intuition with facts.

My results were varied. Some bets were correct, and bets that were the opposite of what I expected, like the recent Fury-Usyk fight. Analysis gives Usyk an edge, but my hunch told me that I should go for Fury, and the rest is history.

There are matches that I'm confident in my picks, but I followed other recommendations and got the best results
That's the fact of sports betting when two fighters who are almost equal and both have a chance to dominate the other.

I have come to realize that sports betting has many surprises, especially in the sport that I'm betting on, which is boxing.
 

Self-confidence is good and important, but self-confidence should not be excessive because perhaps it comes from our sense of ambition for something, especially when it comes to gambling. I am also confident in my gambling, but I know which limits I should not cross when that confidence is very high. Because even in a state of self-confidence, when we lose, we will lose. And when we are not confident when we have to win, then victory will come.
I've experienced something like this several times. How can we possibly be confident with the amount of balance we only have left for 5 more spins in the slot game. I just did a spin and didn't expect much, but do you know what happened? I can get maximum wins with my very small balance. This is what is called luck. That's how gambling is, we don't know when we'll win, and what I know is that I mostly accept losses and defeats. Lol

I have played many games applying the martingale, and if it is a strategy that I do not recommend using, I used it because it is a strategy that comes out of pure instinct and is a strategy that is based on the most natural desire to play to win, but You have to have a lot of money to be able to do something, and with a lot of balance it is not advisable, because you can lose everything, that is a very good strategy for the casino, but not for the player, the player always gets carried away by his coins and You end up losing a lot of money, that's why I don't Recommend it and I recommend that anyone who applies it not do it anymore.

I don't know if your winnings are something that comes just to tempt you to stay longer in your involvement in gambling or not, but certainly in gambling anything can happen regardless of the way you have to gamble and regardless of whether you are a beginner or an experienced gambler.

And now you are saying that when you have been involved in gambling for a while that now your confidence is leading you to lose more and more unlike before when you were still in the beginner stage, it is actually very difficult to find a reason why this scenario can occur because after all there is nothing that can be used as a benchmark in gambling because gambling has always been an activity that can never be predicted about the results at the end of the session, and maybe I would simply say that when you were in the beginner stage it was a situation where you were in a phase of good luck that could make hundreds of dollars.

Confidence somehow determines the outcome of the game if you are involved in the sport. Some people gamble with computer games that they control. In such a case, the gambler needs confidence to win the game. When it comes to sports betting you have to rely on your analysis and luck. Choosing games out of passion without considering the current performance of the clubs might always bring losses.

The most important thing is to gamble with what you can be able to afford so that losses will not have many adverse consequences on your finances. But just as OP has indicated it might also be proper to change gambling strategy if the present one is not yielding the expected results.

Basing up in all the experience i do have with betting then i could say that im in the break even side or something in the profitable but only in minimal. I dont mind much as long i do make myself that having the thrill and excitement towards my betting because this is really the main motive on why you do make bets but of course it cant be avoided that people would be longing on how to make money. On the moment or time that you would
be able to be confident with your picks then you would be normally thinking that it would be a sure win but based up on experience there are really things which can unexpectedly happen which would affect in overall
result or outcome of the said game on which this is something not really shocking. This what makes betting more entertaining or thrilling is that you dont know on whats coming.

If you do win then its good but if not or losing then just simply move on because if you would be finding yourself that become that impulsive about your loses then this is where you would be finding yourself
that being addicted because of having that lose control then this is where problem would really be starting to come out. About confidence then im not really that putting myself on having that 100% sure or
having that expectation for a bet to have that sure win because on the moment that you would be expecting something to be a sure win and if it had lost then you would definitely be having
that huge disappointment on which it could possibly trigger up yourself on having that early addiction kind of behavior.

This topic is a YES/NO answer but still there is more to it. However, gamble is a gamble that has to do with luck, so it doesn't matter if you are confident or not about the games you pick and predictions, without luck you can't be able to win either big or small money. That's just the truth about gamble. It's important to know the basics in gamble so we don't over do ourselves.
I think I have to totally disagree with this.
However everyone have their own opinions about gambling, but from my end, I beliefs that gamble is not a thing someone should be sure if, even when you are winning or losing you shouldn't be too sure and over confidential about your picks or predictions because that's nothing, you might be sure about the whole predictions but the truth remains that if you are not lucky, you can't be able to win both small or big money.
Yes agreed with this.
Gamblers should try and risk the amount that they can afford to lose because it isn't right to lose what you can not afford. So in this case, for a gambler to not feel bad even when he lose his bet, he should try and risk any amount that he knows fully well he can afford to lose.

Most of the time when I lose with my picks, it doesn't come as a straight lose but a losing because of my actions,take for example in a situation where I bet on a particular games let say I bet on Chelsea to win the match and along the line like in the first half of the match I saw that Chelsea is losing with a goal to their opponents, and instead of waiting for the full time of the match I go ahead to cash out my little remaining balance, but at the end of the day, the match come out winning for Chelsea.


In this kind of scenario, I won in my pick if I have wait out for the entire game time, but ultimately I lost the bet since I already cashed out when the club was losing earlier, this kind of outcome becomes the reality of my own bet.

In as much as I don't really believe on luck but I would actually say that you won the bet based on  luck because even when you play the game you never believe that you could win the bet so perhaps that's the reason I believe that is just a lucky win because funny enough if you should tried that method again there is a high chance that it may not actually turn out the way the first one did, however there are numerous gamblers that has use that method to win there gambling bet and I also have a friend who hardly win his betting but the moment he just decided to random pick a games without properly checking and to his greatest surprised he won the bet.

Although if you are into football betting I will suggest that you cut down a bit of your picking because sometimes the reasons why majority of gamblers normally lose there bet is as a results of picking so many games on there betting slip were as most of them will play according to your prediction while others will not play, so perhaps if you reduced the games to maybe two or three games it will surely increase your chances of winning, however I have seen people using this method and it works for them most times.

That seems perhaps a bit of a silly question - surely everyone who picks a sports bet is confident that they are choosing the right bet, otherwise they would not place it. The flip side is that you assume people place bets that they know they are going to lose. What you might be getting at and I doubt many people here are doing it enough, is whether they are tracking profitability of bets placed. It's often a rather simple question, as many bookmakers will tell you how much profit or loss you've made over the entire length of your account history. Most people will be in the negative, because that is the very basis of how bookmakers make money, and the few who are in the positive have probably been restricted once they get too far into positive territory as an unprofitable customer.

It seems that your analysis results to opposite so if you're doing better that way, I'd advise you to keep on going with that strategy. It's not a mockery or whatnot but that's what you've said and in gambling or sportbetting in particular or in any other things, as they say "if it works, it ain't stupid".

Sometimes we have to do it if the results that we're getting aren't profitable and favorable. So, experimenting with other ways of betting really works for some and doesn't for the others. So if you are one of the kind that works with this strategy and you are happily making your way through it, all you have to do is to be consistent with it. And if the strategy doesn't work anymore, then that's the time again that you need to find something new for whatever is going to work for you, you should stay unless they don't work anymore. Time really comes that specific strategies that we used to work with will have their own fading times.

I'd rather say that it may only help us to increase our chances to win. By confidence, I'm mostly referring to a person who does their own research first. Even without a confidence, I'm sure that all of us are still hoping that we can win. I know this is crazy or funny but there are also people that if they prepare too much and have a full confidence, the more they will also get screwed.

It is like someone or something is messing up with them but I think this is only in their head and maybe there is only a co-incident that occurred. They still can do whatever they want. If they think they can do well if they care less, then they can go ahead with it.

I don't know if that idea is good for me or not works for me because I am never trying that. If I wants to place a bet, I will picks the team that I think will have a chance to wins and will not place a bet for the opposite team. It's not good if we feels too confidents with our choice because the situation can change fast without we realizes and that can cause us lose the money, especially in gambling which everything can change anytime. But if that is just for fun, I think we can try it to see if that can helps us to wins on the games, that means we can still use that strategies and hopes that we can wins for the next match. But we must realizes that we can't hopes that what we tests can always gives a win, especially if that's a strategy because we must remember that everything can change suddenly.

As a gambler we are always confident with our pick, otherwise we are not a true sports bettor. We give time to analyze a certain game and match up, and we come up with our decision to bet. I can't answer the specific question but I can only say that I lose most of the time with my bets.

I can't deny that beacuse I don't make money in gambling, yes I win some but lose some as well, what's important is the overall record to determine if I'm profitable or not, and in my case I am not yet. I'm saying "not yet" because I'm not making a conclusion of my journey, since it's possible and I belieive I could be profitable in the future.

Interesting strategy. I think at the initial stage it may bring results, but over time it will not be profitable. What I mean is that over time a person will still want to make the right bets to make money. After all, as long as it brings results, then you follow this tactic, but when this strategy does not bring results, you will understand that
that was a mistake. That is, over time, as I believe, a person will still return to making bets intelligently and not vice versa. I haven't done that, but it's an interesting idea.

Thats your lucky day man, that pattern doesn't really repeat itself regularly, your strategies might seem unsuccessful today and very successful tomorrow. Thats how the game gambling is designed to operate. I have tried this pattern before and it only worked the first two times and others losses, I have even tried getting my picks and staking them together and breaking them into two or more different parts to stake again and even ensure more chances of winning, but on the long run, if the ones that clicks are not with higher odds, I still loose in my staking capital.

The strategies that have been applied in gambling is not a little one, people keep coming out with new strategies every day to defeat the uncertainty associated with gambling, but gambling always proves them only effective for a while before gambling shows you its real color. I believe that's its nature and have resigned to the fate of expecting nothing from it and who knows my strategies might bring a win or a loss, but the most important thing is that I had fun making my picks.

When you are confident with your picks, do you win most of the time? Everytime I put bet and click the button Im confident enough I mean I believe this happen to everyone since when you click those button you put all you hard money and lot of confident into that button so the conclusion is when you put bet you are confident enough to did you win most of the time ? not really hahhahah my win rate on mahjong is 35% hahahha so you know the result hahah

There is no perfect strategy in gambling. I think you where lucky to have played the opposite side and you won. But that doesn't mean that pattern may be the best. The only thing i am suggesting is that you will need to play the both. After Playing the main game you you play the opposite side, there may be possibilities between the both sides. And when playing such game, the amount will be splitted into two equal part. If the stake amount is $10 you will divide it into 2, play half $5 in the original game and $5 in the opposite side, sothat if the main don't play the opposite will play.

Every gambler with a different strategy and personally, I win anytime not because I used another strategy or confidence but, gambling is always gambling where you get to win or lose so you might just end up with any. No strategy involve because I believe gambling win is just by chance nothing else, your early time gambling you might not feel the need gambling always because you don’t get lucky that’s normal. Talking about confidence, I’m always confident about my bet but confidence will never get me my right choice so I’m used to viewing the end result win or lose.

The essence of different odds in sports betting is to give you the room and chance to make decision when your strategies are not working well as planned, most times we rely on our steady strategy probably because it has favored us once and we succeeded profitably, but in sports we should be ready for changes knowing fully well that it is a game of luck , so it is quite advisable that we try another strategy and not relying on one particular strategy.

I have also felt same way @op because there was a time that i relied Soley on correct score just because i won a huge amount from predicting correct scores, and from that day i insisted on playing correct score not until i realized that i am about to lose all the money that i won earlier on predicting a particular style. when i decided to try another strategy fortunately, it favored me, that is to say that there is need for us to re-strategize in our predictions even when we know that gambling is a game of chance and luck.

I have seen so many gamblers who were confident of their game but at the end of it the game ended in loses. So despite how confident we believe that our bet will win, we still have to play cool about our bet until it finally end in FT. In fact some gamblers are very confident sometimes that they still go ahead to rebet outside the original bet that there game must win.

To be proud of your bet is good but to over confidence means you have over stepped and might go on betting believing it can't fail. So I like the last part of the post where the last past says either win or lose on a bet.

Often and it's a pleasant experience in the world of gambling, we have our own sense of pride in ourselves, I often use this method in sports betting, for example: I believe in the team that I believe can win and I place that bet, at the end of the match I can win the match, that's a real experience for me.

Maybe I should say I have principles when betting, if my thoughts are not different, of course I don't follow my instincts, I will follow circumstances, why should I fight fate, It's clear that the team doesn't have any weight, even though I follow my senses and thoughts when gambling, of course I also have to look at developments in the gambling I want to bet on.

Most times when I  tend to put in more faith and confidence in my picks everything will just go and I'll definitely loose it all,but recently I discovered this new strategy of playing the games, leaving it and probably when I remember to check it up it's going to be a huge jackpots
Sometimes having much confident in your yourself,and the game weighs 50/50 as what you may be expecting might turn out the other way round..
I don't win most of the times and when I know I have nothing to loose so I don't put in much confident in such picks.

This is why it is not recommended to place excessive hopes on winning or on the method you use when gambling, such as perhaps a strategy or pattern that you think is good, because in the end of course whatever method you use can only increase your chances but cannot be used as a result. as a guarantee that you will win at the end of the session, in the end it is clear that the most important thing is luck, or meaning only luck can lead you to real victory, but it is a fact that luck always cannot be known when it will come.

The fact of how luck works is also the reason why we as gamblers must always limit our expectations of winning so that we don't feel too disappointed when in the end the results are not what we wanted. However, we have to remember the fact that after all, gambling is a game of chance where, simply put, if you are unlucky then it is clear that you will lose regardless of whatever method you use and also regardless of how confident you are in the method you use.

I find it ironic that whenever I try to concentrate and focus on my betting strategies, the result of those games is different from what I expected- in fact, it's worse than my bets that were made instantly.

For example, if I try to concentrate on sports-betting where I analyze data from previous games and compare it against the other team, I compile those data and arrive at a decent conclusion in which I rely my bets on. Surprisingly, my results are the otherwise I have anticipated as I lost more than I won by doing this process.

Probably by reflection, I tend to overthink my bets and I also go overboard with my analysis that I somehow overlooked some parts and overestimated most. Though the problem here is with ME and not on the process, I still recommend doing your own research in order to at least have some basis on your bets.

For me, it's not too much of a problem with things like this. It's difficult to make a choice that isn't a choice according to your heart, whether in sports betting it's your choice or your experiment, playing at home so you see a much greater chance of qualifying next compared to the original choice. you or your team?

If I experienced a previous loss in the initial game and then I moved on to another game and made a profit, this is very normal for the gambler. They don't just focus on one game, of course they look for potential ways to make money from their analysis. In essence, gamblers seek their fortunes at the gambling table.

I agree with you mate. But since it is a sportsbetting I think we can use our analysis skills to predict who would win but my only drawback with sportbetting is when it was being rigged. It happened to me many time with combat sports and it's quite annoying. I personally look at the teams previous performances and records that will help me pick the best bet but yeah that does not guarantee any winnings however still has higher chances of luck.  Gamblers always depends on luck that is why we need to find it ourselves depending on our strategy.

I think that as time goes by and we gain experience in the game, of course we learn, and that is reflected in intelligent players, or rather intelligent decisions. I think things always happen for a reason, there are many people who have large amounts of money and yet when they play and lose they don't learn, so that is something that needs to be improved and sometimes the epron don't care, they are not interested in improving their way of playing, but they are dedicated only to playing, so I think the smartest way to play is before playing when you establish a money that you are wWilling to lose by playing in the casino.

Depends where you confidence is coming from, if Im confident that I have thought out the bet and possibilities vs the odds given then that will improve my chances over a random bet.    Confidence from experience and knowledge does justify the higher possibility of winning.   The problem of course is over confidence and self deception on the surety of your decisions and conclusions as to the bet risks.

And this is the exactly way I feel, it's better for me to lose by listening to my instincts than for someone to suggest for me or I follow other people strategy especially for those that has being winning and I feel like I should try their method since I'm not winning with my own strategy and I end up losing, I will feel very very pained and angry too, I will end up regretting.

So it's better I losing by having confidence in myself and that self confidence makes me to win at times, even if it's little, it makes me happy even when I lose too.

Not really, because my overall results are in loss.

I only bet when I feel confident and the match that I interested to watch, so even though I lose, if the match is really exciting and make me happy, even I lose my bet, it's fine.

By nature, when people lose their bets or it didn't go to directions that they predicted, they will seek something to blame. So if you bet by relying on someone, you will blame him. But if you bet by yourself, you will blame the match and it didn't really hurt you since it's almost impossible you can contact and make a conversation with the popular players than the tipster, friend etc.

Gambling is luck dependent, so if you are unlikely then your prediction will not work. it doesn’t matter how confident you are. so you will not able to pick the winner team you are not lucky. so always bet small amount which you are afford to loss. gambling will not guarantee you win Everytime. 

A good guess on sports is predicting which team is likely to win. however, no guarantee can be given. so if you want to bet, you have to bet with risk  Gambling behaves the same way for me so I can't say that I can win gambling with my confidence. I also bet with risk and always bet an amount that I can afford to lose. I think this is a good strategy.

Just because you're confident with your picks in your bets doesn't mean that you're going to increase the odds of your bet becoming the winning bet, maybe if everyone that's got a lot of sports knowledge and sports common sense are in agreement or is confident that they're going to be the winner then that's probably the only time that you can be confident that your bet is going to make you win something. @STT said it best, your confidence would matter where it will come from because if it's coming from nothing then there's really nothing show for it and it's just not doing anything, maybe self-confidence do count at some level but there's a fine line right?

I think you didn't understand what I said mate or maybe I didn't explain it well. I was not just discussing about online betting but gambling generally. I gave an example of people who gamble with computer games that they have to engaged in. Since the person's skills will determine the outcome of the game, he needs some level of confidence to win. There are times people gamble on sports they are playing. I see some people stake money on who wins a street football match. The players no doubt needs some level of confidence to play and win the game. But when it comes to sports bets or casino games in formal gambling houses, confidence plays little or no effect. These games are largely determined by luck, so gamblers have to express some level of control and not confidence.

According to the information from the OP, it looks like he had bad luck with his recent gambling activities. Right now, it is really hard to come to a conclusion about whether to continue with the instinct of the mind or go against the mind, as the recent picks were all lost bets. In my view, rather than going against the mind, it is good to take a break because when luck isn't favoring us, whatever way we try, we're not going to win. Even sports betting is connected with luck, though 90% depends on the data collection and recent match history, the remaining 10% is completely on luck. When the 10% isn't supportive, the bet is once again going to lose.

That's tough when you keep fading yourself, as it's never fun to gamble like that. If we are not winning, then we should check our strategy and improve it. It's never a good strategy to keep betting against yourself, as eventually, you'll also experience a losing streak, which might cause you to lose confidence in betting. It's important to understand that there's no fixed strategy that works in sports betting. If we really want to succeed, we need to act based on the current situation and make adjustments when necessary, as odds markets are also doing the same. We have to level with them.

Many people have the same experienced like @OP so that should makes us realizes that playing gambling will not gives wins to us easily. We must knows that we can only use gambling to have fun instead to chase the wins or recover our lose so we will not trying to use more money to playing gambling. Yeah, takes a break will be the good solution to calm down our minds thinks about gambling so we can save our money from the lose. We can't predict when our luck will comes and if we already lose for some money, we must stops our gambling activity and not keeps playing gambling to chase the wins. We will difficult to do that because gambling will not gives that to us and even we can lose much money if we can't realizes the situation. Many people already lose much money but we can prevents that happens to us.

Many gamblers still fall for that, taking gambling as means to earn quick big money without minding to accept the obvious fact about gambling which is fun and nothing else, most of them that have experienced some bad outcome from gambling all dis so because of the false belief that gambling can be taken as a short caught to gaining wealth.
That is the reason why most gambling addicts are as a result of greed and misplaced judgment about gambling and how to handle it outcomes.

Best to stay away from gambling if you know you have problems with just gambling for fun and also ready to lose all that you gamble with, and still be ok because at that point you will be a balance gambler regardless of what the outcome of the games could become.

The concepts of this thread is very hilarious, personally I have only thought about this I haven't practiced it, is quite funny and it will take extral mind for any one play against his picks, I know it is a reality in the game of sports betting where at most times the unfortunate opposite will be become the surprising outcome how funny could that be. But however, it is a fact that every gambler has to accept, no certainty or guarantee towards whatever that might be your favorite picks , betting is a game of try your luck and shouldn't be completely rely on, the reason why it is always advisable not to gamble with more than what you can afford to lose, know your limit and stand by it.

I do not find it hilarious, rather it should be able to make OP think outside the box when next he places a bet. I think OP just experimented it by playing against his picks since his picks are usually not in his favour. Fortunately for him, his new decision paid off. This brings me to these conclusions, probably OP always places bets base on how he feels about the teams involved. His emotions plays the most role in the choices he makes. Now he understands where he got it wrong all along, he can take better approaches while placing bets next time. This is gambling and ofcourse there is no 100% guarantee that any strategy is the best, but the most important thing to note is that you are not the one aiding your losses with your wrong decisions all the time.

Unfortunately no. I had a lot of picks in my life where I was pretty confident and they turned out to be disappointing.

A great example was world cup 2018 where everybody was betting for the Germans (former champions) to get at the very least to semifinals and they ended on 20th something place. I had so many bets where I felt strong over the years. Especially in UFC you can never be sure, like in that last fight where Gaethje was knocked out in the last minute of the last round.

I’m a seasonal sports bettor because I only place bet in sports that I watch closely to make my bets more accurate.

I have a higher winning rate on sports betting because I usually focus on quality of my bets rather than quantity so I only bets on matches that I have high confidence to win regardless of how low the odds is.

Some people aim for higher odds that’s why they keep chasing complicated matches that makes them lose frequently no matter how confident they are with their bets since they are forcing picks limited to high odds that makes it naturally complicated to win.

I can't be sure if my choices make me more happy and joyful or make me disappointed, I can't be sure enough to know if my choices are always right or miss when gambling, but it is a fact that maybe other people also experience the same thing where when I am confident in my predictions but in the end the results at the end of the session are disappointing, or vice versa when I really gamble desperately and don't really care about the results and I actually win.

It's quite confusing but this is gambling and I think it's normal for this to happen because I understand that in gambling no matter how confident you are with the predictions you think are right, there is no denying that in the end there is always the possibility for you to experience disappointment. And this is why lately I prefer to be neutral about the gambling activities that I do, or that means I don't put too much hope in winning and also I don't put too much confidence in the predictions I choose, simply put I will assume that if I win then it means I'm lucky, and nothing more than that.

Yes, all of us would really be having that same experience when it comes to this manner on which we would really be having those kind of thoughts and assumptions that we are really that on the winning side since you are really that confident with your choice or bet with having those good analysis and prediction basing up on what you do know and from your experience until the moment you have seen that different outcome then it would really be bringing out that kind of disappointment but well if you are someone who do make bets just for the sake of fun and not minding much about making money then you wont really be that much stressful in compared into those people who do target out on making money with gambling or sports betting or whatsover that they are dealing with.

You make a fair point on valuing quality over quantity with sports bets.  Just trying to chase the best odds can get you into trouble by taking on too much risk and  i'd say it's smarter to zero in on wagers with strong value, even if the odds are just decent and not through the roof.

That said, if your picks keep missing the mark, it makes sense to reevaluate your approach.  But there's a difference between overthinking past choices versus taking in new info.  Maybe a key guy just got hurt or there was a last-second change to the roster that shakes up your original analysis.  In those cases changing up your selection could be the right call.

Being confident of your bet doesn't make it play as predicted. I get to keep my confidence level in check going by the mistakes made by other gambler's who out of much confidence have lost a trembling amount of money. Confidence on their game playing probably due to the source of games makes them stake in high amount of cash that isn't what they can afford to lose. Nothing about gambling is sure so I wonder the too much confidence from people about their bet.

Guess this things happen most in soccer betting. I have made a lot of bets which i knew was a.clear stand for me but unfortunately i lost. Football betting is unpredictable and i understand. There is no match that is 100% accurate and it one cannot be confident that the game will play. In most cases when we are confident is when we need the bet to win so badly funny enough when we dont need it so badly that is when we would win in the game.

I do feel comfortable when I saw my picks nearly hit the target, but it doesn't give me frustrations when failing if I just can afford what I'm going to lose in a certain bets. Honestly, learning to accept any negative consequences isn't easy to handle in times of struggles, what's important is you should keep the mindset of entertainment instead of being so serious with gambling. Self confidence unto something, will result in positive outcome no matter what happens.

I'm usually confident with my picks. If I'm not I prefer to wait and not bet any money, therefore I can't tell you how I'm doing betting money on picks I'm confident with vs the ones I'm not.
That said, I'm about 55% maybe 60% in profit. I often lose, but overall I win more than I lose. This can be seen as something good and bad at the same time, because as I said, I'm confident all the time, but almost half of these confident picks are lost. Tough life, I guess ;)

Having too much confidence in gambling can even make you to lose the more, just be positive and also understand that gambling is unpredictable.  Play with amount you can afford to lose , when you are so confidence in gambling it can make you to take much risk which you can play with a reasonable amount of money or to play with money which you are not supposed in playing gambling.

  Winning gambling is not by having confidence but good understanding.  Understanding is everything in gambling,  with it you can be able to manage your lose. Having confidence on something that you can't predict to tell what will be the result of the game is not a good strategy in winning gambling. Playing with amount that you can afford to lose in gambling is even a big win than Playing with so much confidence that can lead one Playing with a big amount.

It depends on the type of bet you choose to play like if it involves accumulated matches or just a single match but most gamblers do complain that picking familiar options for a bet doesn't work most of the time like for instance predicting a team that is on winning streak to keep winning doesn't go as predicted because the day you will choose them to win with confidence that they have always been winning is the day they will either lose or draw but since gambling is more of luck it does not matter if you use familiar options for an event but if you are just lucky to pick correctly you can win.

I agree with what you said, that indeed confidence in choices when gambling and winning often does hinge on the nature of the bet. Whether it entails an aggregation of matches or a singular match, it truly varies. However, numerous gamblers voice discontent towards opting for familiar betting options not always panning out. Take for instance forecasting a triumphant team's continued success based on their winning streak: it often backfires. The day you place blind faith in their victory might turn out to be the day luck eludes them, ending their winning run with an unexpected draw or loss. The situation can sometimes be likened to walking on thin ice while confidently expecting solid ground beneath your feet.

Gambling is based on chance, so it makes no difference if you pick familiar options or not. If luck is on your side and you happen to choose right, you win. But always bear in mind: when it comes to gambling, there are no certainties; the result of an event often defies prognostication with any degree of assurance. Even though you may be sure about your decision and feel confident, remember that risk is always part of it, regardless of how good your choice might seem to be at first glance.

Gambling is never won with confidence but our guesses are often correct with long experience of gambling. But if you gamble with confidence, you can surely win, I have not seen it happen in anyone's case. But sometimes we can bet with confidence for sports because sometimes when a strong team plays against a weak team it is very easy to predict which team will win. then it is possible to win by betting with confidence  But this is not always the case. so we have to accept gambling risk and loss there.

When placing gambling bets , most of the time the gambler often measures  his level of confidence based on how much he is able to analyze the bet based on some factors like his. Level of experience and even his calculative ability based on that game relative to how much luck he hopes to have on his side to be able to ace the bet. However sometimes analysis could go wrong and even in a confident state, the gambler can also lose the bet.
This is one of the main reasons why gambling is often referred as a game of luck. This is mainly because even when gamblers are able to input their calculative and perspective ability they still depend on some level of luck to be able to make gambling wins. Even if the level of luck isn't same as well as huge for all games it is still an important factor.

That's why people should not thinks to makes money from gambling as they will only gets more lose. Even if they feels confident with their picks, they don't have to be serious in gambling because the outcomes can't always the same as what they wants. Many times the outcomes changes in the end of the match so they must realizes that they only use gambling to have fun. We can still analyze the match but we must realizes our chance will still 50/50 because it's gambling where no certain results for us. If you can use gambling for fun, you will not thinks much about playing gambling because you always aware that gambling is not a place for makes money. You will only use some money to playing gambling moderately because you wants to avoids many problems that can occurs in gambling.

No matter how good a gambler's analysis is, if he cannot win, he will not consider his analysis correct. But in reality even if the analysis is correct, he could not win because he had no luck. Gambling may or may not win but don't depend too much on it. When it is not taken seriously, losing there will have no effect. We should remember that we will never have a guaranteed win in gambling. In my gambling career I was not sure about certain bets but was confident and managed to win about 60-70 percent of those bets. But i cannot be confident in all bets.

Bro, in contrast to your opinion, I found it more hilarious and odd at the same time, something that will not see the light of day. For the fact that the OP is happy now due to the luck he had in the first pick does not mean that this is a good idea. Unless the initial strategy of the gambler is bad from the onset, that is how this kind of strategy can be practicable. You might have a very strong trading strategy with a 75% winning, which means that your probability of losing is also 25%. Regardless, if you are a good manager of your gambling and its portfolio, it will be easy for you to work with the 75% winning and manage your way to success even as you use the opportunity to override the possibility of losing which is 25%.

By that, it is not that you will not be losing at times but you have limited the impact in your betting, and in the long run, you would have an above-average high success since the 75% chance of winning is greater than the 25% chance of losing. Now, think it this way, the possibility of losing is 25%, the time that the OP won in his narration might merely be the time of the 25% of losing possibility. But for the fact that it better it in the opposite of his startegy, he now won it. But what about the higher chance (75%) of winning with the same strategy? What happens has he now turns to 75% of losing due to his propose opposite strategy? I think this strategy will never last long regardless of what anyone tells me, unless he had a bad strategy initially.

It is not working all the time but when you have that good guts and believe that you picked the right team to bet, then most of the time you’ll hit a win. I bet with confidence though I don’t always win but still I make effort to have a good bet and always be responsible for that bet, luck will still be there in betting and if you’re feeling it, then take the risk without regrets.

Will I say your strategy is really effective, or should I say you are just lucky for now. It might not really last for you. How are you going to do your analysis, then you will decide to place a bet opposite your analysis, it’s not really a good idea to me. If you know you will be going against your analysis, then why stress yourself out doing analysis? To save yourself from that kind of stress, you should just pick randomly and place your bet. You have to be careful because time might come when you will start losing money unnecessarily. Make sure you always control yourself when gambling.

If my picks aren’t hitting, then I will just check what’s wrong, maybe during that period, I will have to gamble less. When gambling, there is always a period when you are going to be winning frequently, and time will come when you will be losing, so just because I am losing doesn’t mean I will start placing bets against my analysis.

Confidence is part of the reason for victory and defeat, depending on the situation it will give different results.

imo, betting is always simple and doesn't put too much emphasis on the results right away because I'm just a recreational player so even if I lose, I still feel an interesting feeling with that bet.

But I also went through some situations where I really had confidence in myself to choose the correct outcome, but I still understood it would only give me an ego boost, but I admit in that situation I won but there were also times I lost because of it. So the results are based on confidence, so confidence should be re-evaluated according to how we understand it, because I think confidence has many different levels based on each person's perspective.

You can't really guarantee that each bet you have, even if you are very confident about it, will win. Because of so many underlying factors such as the the athletes themselves, coach, their current strategies, unknown injuries among others. Aside from your instincts, those factors are significant in the potential outcome of the game. Hence, you can't really assure yourself of winning because it is not only your assessment which is in play but all the other factors, and add luck also in the equation.

it's actually a good strategy - depending on the games you selected, and also, for which team/division your picks were based on... Assuming you selected some games from the Scottish premiership and your options were home/away to win depending on their advantage and positions on the table; say, the smallest points was 1.79 against 12 odds, how do you reverse your analysis for a possible win? Wagering on 12 odds against 1.79? Where's the win possibility?

You don't really have to do much of an analysis to win... What you experienced was luck and it doesn't really mean it'd happen all the time.

We have different perspectives when it comes to the space. Our outcome ought to be presentable and straight because we will always push for positive results. We're all on different levels, understanding what it feels to make huge profits and also losing huge figures. Confident is the one thing that will always make one become promising with system, there's always more to acknowledge and observed in the system, perhaps standing down will do make good solving.

I do not gamble based on how confident I am with my pick but gamble based on statistics from how the teams has been playing when I am gambling by sport betting. Our minds can play tricks on us and make you to think we have the right pick but after the games are over, we do not win any games. Playing sport betting should not be done with emotions or we would not win. If you know a team is better than the other team they are going to be the favourite to pick and you would not lose. Only on very rare occasions that you will lose but if you have been winning before now the lost would not bother you that much because you will still be in net profits because of the other wins that you have been getting. Sport betting is easy to win when you know your statistics very well that you do not go wrong with your picks.

Honestly when it comes to gambling for me, or being cocky just in general, when I'm overly confident I tend to always lose. Whether I'm gambling or just talking smack to a friend about a game or whatever.  It's very strange but when I'm overly confident I tend to lose.  So when I place bets, I always go in with the attitude that I'm going to lose.  I know it's total nonsense and all in my head, but things work out better this way. lol.

Sometimes I also do this kind of strategy, I will go on the opposite on what I thought to be betting and surprisingly, it's also good for me. I don't know if it has something to do with luck, but when I'm on a losing skid on my bets, it's either I will stop, or uses this strategy.

Although, it's not almost very effective and if your first choice hits, it's going to be very hard mentally to see it as you have to blame yourself for going against your initial bet. Nevertheless, this is what gambling is isn't it, we really don't know what the outcome in sports betting, still 50/50, and this what makes it more exciting.

Didn't really go down and checked if I'm statistically winning when I make predictions/am confident with my picks but I can see how this could affect the chances of me winning games.

When you make confident/educated assumptions you already set yourself for success since it almost always means you have prepared yourself for the game, perhaps you may have gotten some light reading that goes towards knowing more about the team or whatever, but shit hits the fan, you're more informed/educated and more confident making those picks.

Confidence in itself doesn't really bring that much to the table especially if you're confidence for the sake of it and not because you have got something to be confident for, betting isn't something you can just "fake until you make it" since there's a real chance of you losing more than you winning, and that isn't for you to decide either.

Every bet we make, has a different winning percentage, I myself saw that my winning percentage when making soccer bets reached 70%, so not all of my analyzes ended with a win, for example today, in the FA Cup final between Man City vs Man Utd, I chose Man City because their history was good but it didn't go well, it was Man Utd who won the match, so not all predictions and analysis will end up being 100% accurate, on the field everything can change.

Isn't it contradicting yourself though, I mean you already have made you pick and should be betting on them and not the other way around. I haven't known a gambler who does this strategy though, so no offense, but this doesn't make sense, in my opinion.


I guess one strategy is just completely stop from betting then. Just have a couple of days off and it seem you are unlucky with your selection instead of contradicting your belt. Or just bet on other games and see how it goes for you. You just need to break that losing streak to be positive and have a confident pick again.

Funny story, this actually happened to me sometimes and this particular time I actually did to a friend and it worked too. It was getting all tense because of the rapid rate at which he was losing with his virtual soccer predictions and I said to myself since he is on a losing spree, why not play exactly opposite of what he actually predicted and to my surprise it worked for me although my friend was a little bit piss at me for doing that but I told him, why not change the gameplay just like I did with the reverse betting and it worked for him for atleast 2-3 tries and he had to end the session before it got out of hand.

First of all, gambling shouldn't really be about how much profit you're making but how much fun you're having, and this should determine your afterwards reaction, whether you're in profit or not shouldn't really be a thing of much concern, as long you're having fun and enjoying the thrill of the game after every gambling session, and as long as you're sure that you're gambling responsibly and staking what you can afford to lose, so when you lose it eventually which normal, you wouldn't feel too bad.

Now secondly, gambling is absolutely unpredictable, especially sports betting. And yes I've also tried using the same technique, because sometimes I'd feel like my approach isn't effective anymore and then have the urge to try a completely different approach and sometimes even an opportunity approach and honesty sometimes it turns out quite effective and sometimes it doesn't, I think it's just about luck.
I believe lucky plays the higher role than your analytical skills when predicting sporting events.

No - I would not bet against myself especially when I am convinced my pick will win. For example - I am confident that I can win the bet when Liverpool plays Manchester United, so I will not bet on Manchester United winning and still choose Liverpool to win.

If I have to bet against myself for any reason – IMO, it's better not to bet and I tend to prefer to keep the money. It's just a choice that I think is rational – meaning not being forced to bet when I don't find something I'm sure of winning.

Sports gambling is all about the data and analytics of the team, what are their current records, win rates, teams will play on the match, coach and atc. Personally I always make a research on the game before manage to make a bet because this gives me an idea if the game is worth to bet or not sometimes there are top teams playing against each other and you don't know where to bet so you must need to play safe and wait for the next game or make a bet with the underdogs to have a higher odds. Don't get too much carried away by prediction of other players.

If that's what he does, he will not wins in gambling easily because when he feels confident, he will becomes superior than others and that will not gives a good results for him. Someone who feels confident will not realizes that he can lose his money anytime and will not thinks that he can't always wins the games. Even if his analysis correct, that doesn't mean he can wins because in gambling, there will be a surprise moment that can change the fact. We must realizes that playing gambling can't gives wins easily because gambling itself depends on luck and the situation can change anytime. If we feels confident with our picks, that doesn't means we can win most of the time but we can lose our money in the next games. Instead feels confident with our picks, it's better we just to have fun in gambling so when we lose, that will not be too sad.

Hahaha, of course, because in gambling there is no real certainty of guarantee of winning, especially if it is in bet that is categorized as lucky bet like lottery.
Even in sports betting, we can't really easily have full confidence in the success of the predictions we have, just imagine the many incidents where the superior team is defeated by weak team.
From this it can be concluded that gambling algorithms are very unpredictable and unpredictable for players
gamblers, we will just keep betting and wait for luck to come because all we can do is increase the odds not guarantee win.
But because confidence in their abilities is truly greater than their awareness of impending failure, gamblers think that what they choose is the best.

This is the main point that all gamblers should understand, because sometimes there are always some gamblers who believe too much in the strategy they have which is where excessive confidence can certainly trigger excessive disappointment when the results are not what we want, and it is very likely to happen even if you gamble using a strategy that you think is right. And as you said that most likely a gambler will assume that the strategy they apply is correct when the results at the end of the session are as expected, but I think it's too early to put confidence, meaning you need to try at least 3 - 5 times the strategy and if all of them win then maybe the strategy is not too doubtful, but if the scenario is losing and winning evenly then it means the strategy is useless or means you won because luck came at the right time.

So we should not rule out the most important point in gambling which is luck, or it means that it is better to have a balanced point of view in dealing with gambling by maintaining the understanding that strategy is nothing more than something that only helps increase the odds but what ensures victory is only luck, and this is why we often say that there is absolutely no guarantee to always win in gambling.

If you are profitable on your strategy then keep doing until it’s not working but this unorthodox style so I doubt that you can benefit on it long term.

Personally, I’m betting to prove my analysis skills on sports while you are doing the opposite. There’s no fun on contradicting yourself even though you are having profit because it only means that you sucks on that game.

This is the reason why I rarely bet on sports bet because I’m suck on this game. I always choose what I’m good at and avoid forcing myself on playing games that I’m not even if I’m winning due to luck because I’m sure that it will not last longer and most importantly not fun.

        -    Congratulations, Op! What you should always do when you play gambling is to always do it experimentally so you can win. But I was just joking, but if it's effective, why not?
In my experience, I did the same thing that I experimented with, and it was not effective either.

But you are lucky; really winning gambling in any casino is really just luck. Then being confident is what a gambler really needs when playing gambling.
Because from the beginning, you will only bet and think most of the time that they will win the bet in every game that will be played.

Even though it does result in profits I'm sure it's not consistently just a matter of chance and luck, so I'd probably rather use my own analysis looking for accurate information about the strength of teams and opponents, I think we all know that sports betting doesn't need to be outlandish and ridiculous. let alone using feelings, it obviously won't work if you're not lucky, actually the most important thing is that everyone's luck is sometimes different and never the same. So don't say your method is good for making a profit.

I may have never tried it but I once bet without prior knowledge so I experienced consecutive defeats which made me lose in sports betting. Since then I have started to learn to know more about the team I am betting on, don't be careless and careless in betting even though we know that in the end it is luck. which will determine the final result, winning or not actually doesn't matter to me because I gamble for fun using a budget that is ready to lose, for me losing is a normal matter, the point is the fun and adrenaline, even I also enjoy the game, this is not only talking about profits and just win.  ;D

I haven’t tried something like this before. Whenever I am gambling, I always follow whatever my mind tells me, I don’t go against it. You don’t really expect me to be winning frequently, there will be losses sometimes, but I think it works for me like that, and it’s really better. Before I decide to conclude on the side that I will be placing my bet on, I will have taken my time to do my analysis. I will see that if I place my bet, I have higher chances of winning the bet, so I will have to proceed. So after I do my analysis and I know I might be winning the bet if I place it, then why will I decide to do it the other way around.

This isn't a strategy but superstitious belief and coincidence met at the the same time. :D

Can you elaborate on whether you won the bet every time or most of the time? Cause that can give an explanation of what you are seeking from others. If I were you I would just hope on with this thing as long as it gives me the result but it's become obvious when you started to feel that goes against your expectations right?

In my case I would say no, that's because I'm rarely very confident when I place my bets, I always prefer to think that there's a greater chance of me losing than thinking that there's a greater chance of me winning. In my opinion, thinking negatively in this case seems to be the best option because that way, when I lose a bet, I easily accept that defeat, whereas when a person becomes very confident, that person starts to create high expectations about that bet, even Start making plans for what you will buy when you win a bet. He no longer thinks about whether he wins, he starts thinking about when he wins. in other words, start watching the bet

as being an absolute certainty that he will win, and there are cases where when a person feels very confident that he has got the bet right, he puts in a lot of money, these cases happen a lot and then when people lose everything they go into despair


source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-56251835

Most of the time, when people feel very confident in gambling, they make serious mistakes, such as: losing money that they could not afford to lose.

I've done it several times and the results are good, but there are also the opposite, so I don't use this method too often or always, and if it turns out you can produce results and the opposite is true then that's good, it means you've found the right method and you can continue. do it but I'm sure you can get disappointing results too, and what's important is what the winning rate is from the opposite way or the usual thing, if the winning rate from the opposite way is much better then that could be a method that continues to be done or combines them because maybe the winning rate will be higher.

shouldn't it be like that? how could anyone be willing to gamble against what they believe? if they bet in that way, doesn't that mean that they have the wrong analysis and they should correct the mistake. because it doesn't make sense to me when someone gambles but they gamble against what they believe in, that means they just hope for luck that what they bet on can win and ignore their own analysis.

I usually lose, when I'm confident about my sports bets. Maybe that's why I make really small bets and I tend to avoid parlay bets.
Trusting your gut feeling is a wrong approach, if you ask me. You need proper analysis of the teams you are betting on.
Don't fool yourself that your new method is going to win consistently. Maybe you just got lucky and in the next time your bets, that are opposite to your analysis are going to lose. At the end of the day, sports betting is based on luck, just like every other form of gambling.

Yes it takes alot of humble thinking to realize maybe you should take the other side of your bet.    Sometimes this might mean you hedge a bet, especially if the odds advance further and favor doing so.

I'd rank this level of versatility as top level betting, where the gamble is more important then your own ego.  You have to be pretty nimble in your emotional flexibility to do this and explore the profitability of each side to the bet; we all have bias for sure.

It’s likely that you simply don’t have a large enough sample of your opposite bets that brought you profit, I don’t remember how many bets you need to make to understand that we have a winning strategy, but it’s a large number. I want to say that your result may not be objective and it was just an accident, but of course I could be wrong too.

I don’t want to stand still in gambling, I’m always interested in trying something new and looking for different strategies, although I understand that there is a lot of garbage among them. Well, it’s the search for this that attracts me most, because I like to constantly learn something new. I once tried to bet on what I wanted, but never tried the opposite bets. Maybe someone will find this interesting, but I will look for other strategies, because your strategy has a fragile foundation.

Well, my advice in matters like this have always been that, what ever we do and find rewarding in gambling, then keep doing it, after all, it's all about having fun, and we all know that there is no fun in constantly losing money all the time.

I personally, based on my own experiences have stopped being confident in my picks, because just like you, I most of the time end up losing even when I am most confident for a win, this usually breaks my heart and spirit, that is, you know how it feels to trust and have confidence in yourself over something, only to at the end of the day, realize that you were completely wrong about that thing, most especially when there are people who actually believed in you with their bets, it can make a person feel like a complete failure some times.

So, to avoid such feeling, I've stopped believing in my own picks, and this has always made be feel better in times when it turned out I was wrong, since it's something I've predicted will happen.

No.

Even I can say that I am following the news in the esports which is also another form of sportsbetting. Despite that I am confident with my picks, you will never know what can happen in-game.

This is the same for the other traditional sports too, some injuries can come and key players won't be able to play.

That's the same in esports although in other form as in in-game, come backs as we call it when the team you bet is about to lose but then they start to regain better plays and gradually wins the game.

Confidence in betting should always be present. Take that away, and you’ll never have fun in sports betting anymore. When we are confident, it's a sign that we understand what we are doing and believe our strategy will bring us wins. You can bet against yourself if you think you lose most of the time with your strategy, but for how long? You might win temporarily, but your strategy might not be sustainable in the long term. The only strategy that will make you profitable in the long run is one that you can develop over time.

This is gambling, where bookies are very clever, so we should be the same. Make adjustments when the strategy is not working so we can still end up profitable in the end.

Honestly speaking having confident with my picks, doesn't favour me that much, but when I just pick without putting or having any confident am going to win , most time I always endup winning and it will just look like a joke .

But still that doesn't change anything tho, being confident or not one is still going to lose , because gambling is mainly all about luck, so there's possibility of one going to loss or wins , is just depend on one luck that moment.

I mean if you are confident then there's nothing stopping you from getting that win but since there are many things that could determin the outcome of your picks you shouldn't get your hopes too high otherwise when thing goes wrong you will feel immense regret.
remember having confidence in your pick doesn't mean somehow the universe will favour you and what ever you pick suddenly gonna be the best pick in this world.
you should realize that in some platform the odds are adjusted so that it has 50:50 chance.

so honestly even with confident, if the pick is shit then its shit, there's no excuse at all, like in football, the biggest club can get rekt by the smaller club.
its just how it works, sometime things turns out as expected, or not at all.
overall, its just depends on your luck, thats why its called speculation in the first place, you can make prediction, but the outcome doesn't necessarily align with your prediction.

Well, to be profitable in gambling and betting is not an ordinary thing. Only a few people are always lucky in gambling and many will just face the hard luck with gambling. Even if one is confident with his predictions does not mean that he will be able to win the bets. Many times, he will just lose the game and bet, because upsets so happen in gambling.


As far as betting is concerned, you would not depend on a single strategy when placing the bets. Some people always place the bet on the low odd team as these are bets which are more likely to be won but the odds are low. Some people will risk less money but will place the bets on higher odds. The chances of losing such bets are more but if you win such bets it will be of higher profitability. It depends on how one would like to bet and the betting strategy varies from person to person.

Over confidence is bad when you are gambling, because it can lead you to big loss. This is why when gambling don't be confidence but just have it in your mind that a loss is also part of the game, and don't believe that you will win the game. If you do, you might end up losing. I have seen a gambler that thinks it is by his skills and forgets that gambling is based on luck and he bet all his bankroll because he felt that he has known the trick of winning.

When he lost it all that was when he came to me that he was stupid to have confidence in that trick just because it worked for him yesterday, he never knew that it was his luck that made him win those bets he won the previous day. When you gamble for fun, you will not have any confidence because you want to entertain yourself, you just do your picks and whatever is the outcome, you are cool with it.

One of the most important factor in sport betting is following our own personal rules, not jeopardizing it for anything. Confidence in gambling has to be whatever outcome I accept be it win or loss. Once we can shape our minds this way, we would be okay either in a winning or Lossing situation, because nothing is guaranteed.

You just place your bet, and ensure you stake the amount you are willing to lose and relax for whatever outcome.

Maybe you are not familiar with the game, because there are some games you will bet with a huge amount of money, you will have the confidence of winning which i have experienced such thing from my gambling.

I guess we have some gamblers like you, who use the same partner with you and they are enjoying their gambling because they bet base on they are not expecting anything from betting and they will win something or lose something which they cannot guarantee their winning.

Despite gambling is a luck, but is still require knowledge to make your winning higher than losing because there are some bet you will play base on your gambling experience, it will come to pass but it will not give you exactly the amount of money you targeted for the game.

Its a myth, a gamble fallacy and many people still gamble with that way, especially for those who gamble on sports every day.
They believe that they will win more often by betting against their own predictions after experiencing a losing streak based on their own analysis and predictions.

Yeah confidence does not guarantee a favorable winning as it always depends on your luck in a particular bet you have placed. I know we all experience this kind of thing where at some point we are confident enough but it always turn against our luck and I consider this thing as normal in the gambling industry.

Yes I do win most of the time, in as much as being confidence is not enough  for any one to win but it is always good to have certain believe over what we consider to have possibilities, being confident puts you in the position of making an informed decisions in terms of making your best picks and your staking power, but however, we  do feel so much disappointed on seeing that what we presumed to have confident about didn't go the way we expected. nevertheless, it is just a game that has zero percent guarantee over getting expected outcome. What we do is just to clear our conscience by picking what we feel is the best and wait for what will be the outcome of it, gambling with only the amount that you can afford to lose is what will put you in a better emotional condition when the outcome of your picks  didn't come to your favor.

That's true, there's no guarantee even if we're confident enough in our own pick because if luck doesn't favor us, it will ended up losing out bets. There's an instances that having much confidence in our bet will gives us disappointment in the end because we're hoping to win, but like what everyone say's. gambling is all about losing and winning, it depends to us when is our lucky day. 

It seems to me that this is the way of understanding. Your situation is very familiar to me, this has happened to me more than once.
Only once did this happen in trading, when I realized that I did not understand where the price would go next, and recently in batting, when I began to bet on random matches, having the desire to simply lose the bonus limit.
Somehow, after the games, I also thought that I should put everything the other way around.
But it's not logical. It's like playing against your logic, and this approach is like betraying yourself.

There is no winning in gambling unless luck favors it. But if there is strategy then we can be ahead to win. But in some games luck plays a role entirely. For example, there are various games like dice roulette where there is no opportunity to apply strategy. And if one does sports betting then there are chances of winning if good research and strategy are applied. Although it is not possible to provide hundred percent assurance in that case. Again in the case of sports betting, we are often fatally confident about any bet. Even if you grow overconfident, there is a chance of loss. It is good to be confident to win but it must be kept within limitations.

Everyone can and is ready to receive luck through gambling because it doesn't always come to the same person in any type of gambling. But what all gamblers must be more prepared to accept is defeat, because this definitely comes more often in any type of gambling. And if there is a gambler who is only ready to accept luck, I think that person is not a gambler and does not deserve to be in gambling because he does not understand how to enjoy real gambling.

Yes exactly, I support your idea that not all types of games can be done by applying strategy, or I mean there are some types of games that are completely dependent on luck as you said one of them is roulette dice and maybe I will add another one that is like a slot game, the reason is clear that there are no statistics or history that we can use as analysis material to draw conclusions that lead to decision making, because this is a random game that cannot be analyzed at all.

In contrast to sports betting as you mentioned where we can make the performance of our favorite team as a benchmark to compare it with the strength of the opposing team at that time, you can apply strategies by looking at various sides to produce decisions that are believed to increase the chances of winning, but in the end it is clear that luck is still an important aspect in this bet and actually for all types of games luck will always be the most important aspect to confirm victory. Because obviously the logic in any type of game if it is still a betting activity then obviously the possibility of loss will be a part or will always be a definite possibility that will occur, meaning that the strategy is nothing more than something that is only useful to increase the chances of winning but does not guarantee that you will win at the end of the session, and for sports betting this is a combination of strategy and luck.

Sorry to hear that mate and hope you will find refuge from this thread as there are many of us that can
relate about your issue and problem and sometimes experimental is not that helpful at all because we may
fall from each traps in gambling.

not sure if i can support that betting opposite of my analysis because this proves me to be not
good in gambling ?  what I do always is that to  focus in the team/player that i believe and to enjoy
my betting together with my love teams.

More luck and fewer strategies - that is what I see in gambling. For several years I've been gambling and no matter how hard I tried to analyze the situation and apply the strategies I've learned, luck really our ticket to winning. That is because situations never always happen the same in the past and if it ever comes, we still don't know when making us think that it is useless to keep using this way so we try another and still fail.
That is why I gamble without expecting I'm going to win instead, I just think I enjoyed what I'm doing at least it was not too hurt. 

I’ve been really confident about my picks many times and still lost. We can’t control sporting results even if we pick the favourites to win.

Obviously though it’s natural to feel more confident about winning a bet when you really believe it’s going to win, usually the type of bet that I feel really confident about is with lower odds naturally.

Although I don't have much experience in gambling but I have gambled with friends during IPL or such tournaments.  Gambled online as well as offline with friends. When there are different sports there are offers from one side which team I will take and based on that team they offer me money and if my team wins then I get good amount of money from there. Gambling like this has yielded several results in my favor but I have lost some matches again because the results were not what I expected.

          -   I just noticed what you said, Op. What do you mean by betting on the opposite of your analysis? Is this what you think will win but you will actually lose, and what you think will lose but your bet will be correct? Is this what you mean?

Because it appears from the experiment you did that you challenged that with your own strategy that you use when you play gambling in the crypto gambling business, it seems like that's what you want to convey.

This means that your choice was not assessed by all factors influencing the final result of the bet. It turns out your analysis was wrong. Or, your choice was based on emotions, such as betting on the teams or athletes you systematized.

In gambling, as in investing, one should not allow the influence of emotions and to achieve the desired result (making a profit or winning), one should be guided only by cold calculations. But we should not forget about the element of surprise (chance), when even the favorite can make a mistake and lose to a contender with less chance of winning.

This is a typical mistake of gamblers - to believe (hope for the desired outcome of the bet). Whereas, you need to know (realistically assess) the chances of winning (detailed analysis).

Seriously, winning has nothing to do with our state of mind when gambling. From my personal experience and observations from others, betting placed with so much confidence mostly end up losing than bet placed with calmness and less expectations. Forget about gambling and let talk about the real life, over confidence make things worse and decisions taken with under such conditions are likely to fail. Talking from experience, I have been disappointed several times with games I played with so much confidence and they end up falling my hands and likewise, I do win some games I play with less expectations when I don't pay much attention but surprisingly, they become green.

However, being confident and winning a bet depends on the games you normally play. There are games that you can be confidently relaxed after playing them and they will play according to your prediction but games like football doesn't fit in this category. In games like table tennis, I do pick with confident and win depending on the player vs player since it's individual game but team games will hardly work out well.

Gambling is fun For those who gamble for fun, betting with friends is more fun than online gambling. Because when you gamble online you enjoy it alone but when you gamble offline with friends the joy is much greater when you are together. I gamble online but I am not very familiar with the games.  Among certain games I play, Blackjack is my favorite game. And here my guess works very well. the decisions I make are successful most of the time.

I think it's more dangerous for the gaining profits from gambling. In gambling there will always both some times you will gain profit and sometime you will get lost. If you think in gambling peoples always get profited from gambling then you are in wrong thought. And I also wanna say that when you realised by your own self  gambling is not profitable for you or your losing amount is crossing your affordable limit then immediately stop gambling take a break from gambling recover yourself and after that play again as you can afford to lose.
Anyway it has happened to me many times that I have made a prediction and lost it due to bad luck even though I was confident about it and that's gambling here not only prediction power but also luck. Because it's all about the luck.

The very first thing I played was roulette and I used the Martin Gale strategy, this was more than 10 years ago. Oh, how naive I was, it really seemed to me that I was smarter than the casino and would not lose with such a strategy, now it’s just funny for me to remember it, lol. It is now clear to many that it doesn’t matter at all what to bet on, the main thing is that in the long run the casino will take its commission if a 0 is rolled out. But this is one of the fastest ways to win or lose money, you can find out the result in just a couple of seconds, but I I haven’t played for a long time and some casinos have a limit on bets. Despite everything, for some reason I like this game, probably because of its simplicity and the fact that it was the first of my gambling games, this is a kind of nostalgia for me.

Yeah, what he believes gonna be the winner from his analysis then he bets on it for Lossing just opposite of what he analysize. And vice versa, this method remind me of old school days were we choose opposite of what we think is the right answer and end up getting it correctly.

For me OP, is tryna finding an edge of which I believe he has gotten. The truth is, OP should leverage on that if it works and probably adapt it because and sort out means to improve more . It happens most at times, we need to man up and get rid of emotion, huge expectancy as gamblers.

Well, it seems like that often happens to me too. At that time when I was sure I would win and there are pretty good odds to choose but what happened was that choice actually led to a loss, and the right one is the other odds that I didn't choose (by the way, I often play football betting).

However, when I felt unsure about the odds I chose and I decided to just watch the match without betting but what happened was that my chosen odds turned out to be the correct guess. I've also thought what if I did it all the other way around but when the time came, it turned out that I didn't have enough courage to do it.

Exactly. Gambling is for fun so we don't have to serious playing gambling. We can analyze the match but we should not have a big hopes to wins because we must remember that in the field, many things can happens and once something change, that can effect to our prediction. We can't deny that many surprises can happens when the match shows and that makes us to use the money we can afford to lose. We can't always wins the most of time because the change factors that happens in the match so we must not use gambling as a place to makes money. We can only place a bet, watch the match or leave it like that and wait for the outcomes and if we lose, we should accept the outcomes and not trying to recovers our money because that will be difficult to do.

Yes, you have said the right thing above that in a match anything can happen on the field and this is what makes me keep limiting my budget when betting on football betting, none other than because as you said and it is true that anything can happen. on the field which can turn things around, or in the sense that even though initially the team we are betting on is in a superior situation but if the match is not over then anything can happen there that has the potential to turn things around, and if I discuss this I am reminded of last week where At first Bayern Munich managed to take the lead against Real Madrid in the UCL in the match for the final but it turned out that it only took 3 minutes for Real Madrid to turn things around which made them win in the final minutes before the end of the match and this is one of the scenarios that is never expected. very likely to occur in the field. Therefore, I think it is clear that the point is that wherever we bet, various restrictive measures that lead to prevention will always be an important aspect, such as only risking small amounts.

Confidence does not translate to certainly, and even if we are certain about the picks, it does not still guarantee the winning. We should not also forget that over-confidence is even not good in gambling, it has put a lot of people in trouble, especially those who have let their beliefs/assurance intoxicate them to the extent of wagering too big amount of money but in the end lose the money. This could be painful which is an excellent reason why we should even be careful about this confidence as a context since it is such that should be used in moderation and in such a way that the gambler has planned the right management to lessen any negative effect of it.

Also, gamblers should always know that even if they are very good at what they are doing and have the best possible picks, gambling will always be risky and luck is a strong factor here at the same time. It takes luck for gamblers to have that pick and still win it regardless of how confident such a gambler is towards the choice made.

I always limiting my budget when betting and only use small money to place bet for one match. By using that, I can place more than 2 matches and whatever the outcomes, I will not thinks too much. Your example in the UCL shows to us that anything can happens in the match so when we feels confident with our picks, that doesn't mean we can wins on that match. We must be careful if some surprises comes to the match and that can makes us lose the money. If we can accept the outcomes and we can manage our bet, I think we don't have to feels sad if we lose because we understand that we already trying what we can but the reality is different from what we wants. We can only try without have a big chance to knows who will wins and when we can wins. If we luck, we can wins but if we lose, we don't have to regrets our lose. We can wins in the next match so we can still place the bet.

Yes you have a good approach by only risking small amounts that you can afford to lose and I hope you can maintain that approach for a long time to come because after all that's the only thing that can keep us awake and away from any unfortunate eventualities like losing a large amount of money. And yes I like your thinking where you say that even though we are sure of our decision but it does not mean that we will win at the end of the session, and that is a good mindset and perspective on gambling where in addition to knowing that there is a chance of winning but we also realize that the risk of losing is something that can definitely happen at any time.

One of them is like the scenario that I have exemplified before when I saw the UCL competition in the semi-final match where initially Bayern Munich fans seemed very confident that victory was in their camp but in the end yes the last 3 minutes changed everything. So actually in gambling the various impacts of the worse possibilities depend on us in terms of managing our gambling activities, if for example from the start we understand that gambling is always about winning and losing then I think it is less likely for a gambler to eventually experience emotions and take various actions that endanger himself, everything comes back to the ability to accept facts at the end of the session, and that's why we are always advised to be responsible gamblers.

Not really, I feel like it's not confidence but more like courage that I feel when I bet, confidence implies that I believe in that team but I don't bet on the winning all the time because of how low the odds are, so I'm not confident that I'm betting on the winning team. Most of the time, it's just that I have to strengthen my nerves because I'm basically betting my money in the hopes that the one that's not favored to win will do the miracle and win the match. I think that what you feel doesn't even have anything to do with the possible outcome of the bet, that's outside of the game after all which means that no matter what you feel about your bet, if the team that you've placed your bet just sucks and is being completely dominated by the other team, you're probably better off having any kinds of feeling.

This is why gambling is called an activity that really cannot be predicted because after all the results at the end of the session are always random, and you have proven that when you gamble by choosing decisions that are not in accordance with your analysis but the results even win and I think it is very clear that in random activities the scenario will continue to be different, or different times then the results will also be different even if for example you do it with the same method, meaning that it does not mean that choosing decisions that are not in accordance with our analysis will always result in victory.

Yes it is a new way found by OP but however we must return to a straight understanding of gambling which is still gambling where whatever the way or whatever the method is the results will not always be in accordance with our expectations, meaning don't put too much hope in the methods we believe in.

There’s a lot of picks that gives a decent odds while the match is still can be easily analyzed. Some bookie made an error on assigning odds on matches since they are just relying on stats while you can take advantage on it if you are watching the league closely so that you can analyze and choose a team that has a potential to beat the odds or what popularly known as dark horse. You don’t need to become courageous on picking higher odds which you knew that winning is hard to attain. You just need to become patient on choosing the right odds.

Besides, you can always increase your bet size to compensate with the low odds so that you can still win decent amount even if the odds is small, at least you are still betting on match that you are confident on winning rather than doing force but just to increase odds of your bets.

Risking small amounts to playing gambling will be better than use much money to avoids the big lose. That's already happens to many gamblers but they don't realizes that they must reduce their money that they used to playing gambling. We don't have to follows what they do because we must responsible with our money so we don't gets the same experienced as them. We can feels confident with our picks, but we must not feels too confident because we still don't knows what will happens in the end of the match. Even if we wins with our pick, we can't hopes that we can wins more in the next match because every match can't gives the same results.

The last minutes can changes drastically so we must be careful when placing the bet. We must realizes that our picks can lose anytime so we don't have to be seriously when placing the bet. If we can enjoy the match while we gambling, we will not thinks about our bet because our reason is not makes money but we wants to have fun by place a bet. We must prevents our emotion becomes big if we lose from our prediction and realizes that's a gambling which can gives us lose and wins.

Yes, it means that gamblers must realize that gambling is not only about the chances of winning but also there is another part that can never be separated, namely the possibility of losing, and as we know that everyone does not like the name losing money, while losing in gambling is a very possible thing that can make them lose money. So there is no other way to avoid the possibility of losing a large amount than by only risking a small amount.

It's fair to say that gambling will always be an activity that doesn't have any certainties and guarantees regarding the outcome at the end of the session especially when it comes to winning, and that's why many of us always recommend only risking small amounts. The fact of the matter is that no matter how confident you are in your choice of decision at the end of the day, confidence is not something that can guarantee victory. This means as you said that anything can happen even if we are very sure of our choice, and the other thing is that betting a small amount will certainly make it easier for us to take responsibility for any results, especially defeat.

If gamblers can realizes that they will have two result when gambling, they will not trying to use much money because they can lose anytime. They will difficult to wins as in gambling, we can only have a bigger chance to lose and winning in gambling needs luck althouhgh we are confident with our picks. When we placing our bet, we don't have to feels confident because anything can happens in the field so we are just placing the bet and wait for the result in the ends of the game. We can only prevents the big lose in gambling so we must not risks too much money when playing gambling.

Even if gambling doesn't have uncertainties, people will still placing their bet and playing gambling without stops because they thinks that gambling can gives them much money. They will still trying to wins even with more money and don't thinks about how much their lose later. If they can be wise when playing gambling, they will not risks too much money just to chase the wins because they will thinks that their chance to wins will not too big. They will just use the money they can afford to playing gambling because they don't wants to gets big lose from gambling. They only wants to be responsible when playing gambling and that's why they will only use enough money to gambling.