Bitcoin Forum

Hi, I'm just some guy on a bitcoin forum that likes watching cs:go and makes a hobby out of betting on professional matches. If you've already seen magicmexican's dota2 and SC2 picks (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=900561.0), this will be something similar, although nowhere as serious in terms of research, analysis, and profit. Again, I just do this as a small hobby with skins and small sums of bitcoin.

Currently:   +0.07817 BTC unit size = 0.004BTC, started at bankroll of 0.2 BTC


NOTE: CS:GO only, no other e-sports will be posted here.

As of now, betting on nitrogensports will become a larger part of my picks. Betting weapon skins on lounge won't stop however. I plan to post picks from both sites as the skin betting scene has contributed largely to the popularity of CS:GO and many people that follow this thread more than likely bet skins over btc.

Free picks are posted on here daily, but only constitute a small portion of all the bets I make. If you wish to see all the bets I make, it only costs 0.01 BTC/day. However, it should be noted that not everyday will be +EV, and there may be losing days, as this is gambling after all. If you wish to purchase these "premium" picks, shoot me a pm and I will give you an address.

Where to bet:

BTC betting: NitrogenSports (https://nitrogensports.eu)  |  Ref link (Nitrogensports)  (https://nitrogensports.eu/r/269891)
Fairlay (Better Odds) (http://www.fairlay.com) | Reflink (pls) (http://www.fairlay.com/?signup=2150)
Fiat (USD): Egaming Bets (http://egamingbets.com)  |  Pinnacle Sports (USA bets not accepted) (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/)
Skins (in-game items): CSGOLounge (http://csgolounge.com/)


Some afterwords:

1) Never all-in
2) BTC betting will be done in 'units' and for anyone that chooses to follow these bets a bankroll of 50+ units is recommended, as well as following my unit sizing.
3) If you are going to bet skins on lounge, do not start with one big ticket item, get several smaller items so you can place more than 1 bet at a time. About 5 items of similar value should be good.
4) Don't follow my bets blindly, CSGO is a variance heavy esport to bet on and all advice here should be taken with a grain of salt.
5) Any questions can be directed to me by PM through this website. Skype will not ever be given out, no exceptions.
6) For anyone that wishes to see the bets that I do not post on this thread, shoot me a PM and we can talk about either a pay-per-view or subscription via steam or other mediums of communication.

Did i get you some ez skins ez life?
Trade Link (Not necessary but appreciated) (https://steamcommunity.com/tradeoffer/new/?partner=66088357&token=kVP42VcB)
Any trade offers are welcome as well.
BTC: 14EhjKwcwfuSujGPVUr4SVjqw8CvHBqCHG
NitrogenSports ID: 269891
Or, give my signature a click!

Note: If I don't post pictures with my bets its because I'm at work or school, use your judgement to figure out an amount to bet.

==============================================================================================================================

MIDDLEMAN/ESCROW SERVICES
As a lot of the CS:GO scene revolves around skins and trading, I will be offering middleman services at a 0.5% fee for anyone interested. Just shoot me a PM with the steam profiles of you and the person you are trading with as well as a few details of the trade and we can get everything set up.

lounge picks for 2/19
http://i.gyazo.com/f7f9a0ff5e3d9bc2d7b40ea05833d21b.png http://i.gyazo.com/4c3a8bb50dfb39fe910ba68f426aa878.png
note: VP vs NIP can go either way (BO1 nuke), depends on knife round imo. would recommend a skip and to enjoy the game

Honestly not sure why anyone would use egamingbets over pinnacle, their vig is so ridiculously high its insane. I would never deposit a penny there to be honest.

ah pinnacle stopped accepting bets from USA residents, so I disregarded it. Internet gambling act and all that stuff.

Makes sense, however the 11% vig is just borderline retarded, not even sure that anyone can possibly beat that longterm.

2/19 nitrogen picks (all my btc went to magic's dota and sc2 picks :/ )
http://i.gyazo.com/860725b9ceae118457f9590d4bb3e7fe.png

Ah never understand these things before, I saw egamingbets ads on some matches so I thought they're the best out there :-\
Anyway, I'm glad finally there's a CSGO betting tips on Bitcointalk. Looking forward to this thread!

Its really hard not to notice how abysmal their odds are, just look at this one match and compare pinnacle odds (~4.8% vig)

http://i.gyazo.com/64f57034c3be6aac63d406caf7bdba4b.png

to Egaming bets odds (11% vig - what the fuck..)

http://i.gyazo.com/528fc8aa90566c9a5751a6ebc3839f48.png

It will absolutely murder your ROI in the long run if you will bet there.

Thx nitrogen I win some of my btc
LOL

Would you like to help me little to understand how this is played ? I didn't understand the strategy of playing even this seems very interesting to me.

not exactly sure what youre asking for..

results of 2/19 bets
http://i.gyazo.com/831c94250dd2ce949a0b579fea325b8f.png
wouldve been better if mouz didnt actually upset fnatic on the game i bet against them on...picks for today's NA matches coming soon

picks for 2/19 NA games
http://i.gyazo.com/9f145737d3d9c4d1e2436a0d1695abf7.png
would advise against betting on C9 at the moment with all the DDOS stuff going on. Low bets on all of these, Mythic is also susceptible.

games taking so long because of ddos.. will post results of todays bets and bets for tomorrow once last game is finished.

results of DDOS:
http://i.gyazo.com/d06f5c507734f2dc58828976d6500b8c.png

tomorrow's picks
http://i.gyazo.com/771e8a160edd410585bce16788d0c371.png
Both are BO3's and I dont see orbit taking 2 off tsm, same with aposis, never heard of them. OnlineJ should have this ez

well those two games got cancelled it seems, nothing for a while, will post the FACEIT picks tomorrow sometime

results of nitrogensports picks
http://i.gyazo.com/217d31f3fa5cba4cbf0a974e793ff6c3.png

NiP: -Delpan + allu
nV seem to be in a slight slump, and odds are good on fnatic because of the mouz upset
LGB has a decent chance here vs nV, and I think NiP will be strong with the addition of allu to the roster.
http://i.gyazo.com/3bce47ffe8458163f87297e09bf987b2.png

nothing on nitrogensports as of yet

looks like i missed volgare v mboiz and piter vs aces while i was sleeping, will post bets for energy v eC and e6tenz v myXMG later

everything will be played out tomorrow, faceit games are going to be fun to watch
http://i.gyazo.com/65a9a3df115a82627842b91bb8fcd8ac.png
http://i.gyazo.com/97605c947ff052b210d52f43bab853a5.png

Will follow your picks and see how well you do!

Took all 5 last picks availible on nitro  8)

Wow! I didn't know Bitcoin sportsbooks put CS:GO bets until now. Good to know this, I can play with my Bitcoin. Kinda tired of Lounge and their always offline bots even when I pay premium to get personal bots. Definitely will try it.

the games on nitrogensports are up, I will be betting the same as I did for my lounge picks.
Also skipping Volgare v UrbanL and Enso V LanD on lounge.

if you dont already get loungedestroyer for Chrome, I never have problems with bots

Now will continue keeping eye on picks to see the average of winning/losing then in future will use them for betting. Best of luck to all.

NiP v Fnatic is tense, OT atm

Do you keep of a record of Wins/Losses and +/- Units?

I would if i was provided a template or something (maybe), I only do this as a hobby, and I still do have school and work but I'll try getting something set up to keep track of everything when I have some time.

VP on season, close to 50-50 imo, putting a small bet on Virtus.Plow
http://i.gyazo.com/6f359fcfe455e35450f133c31b769a23.png

x6tence looked shaky on their CT half on their map pick, but seem to have warmed up now, hopefully theyll keep this going and take it 2-0

Which other site can you recommend along the csgolounge?

nitrogensports for bitcoin betting, dont use trade ninja

lost both nV v NiP and VP v Fnatic but both games were close, were fun to watch. gotta make back what was lost with the NA games later
http://i.gyazo.com/40a8dcbb74d159777607677ffa388943.png
RIP

NA picks
http://i.gyazo.com/9357c8678e3b2b3599c0ec641b75217b.png
I advise you bet on CLG or go really low on Ascendancy, i was told to "go big or go home"

I made the exact same choice for those 3 matches.

after lots of DDOS on x6tence v myXMG, peelk is now standing in as x6tence's 6th, it'll probably go to map 3, going to be close
EDIT: x6tence takes map 3, wasnt that close after all

i think this means a bet on Denial taking rounds or something(?) anyways they look decent v mythic right now, small bet on whatever this means
http://i.gyazo.com/a11f78709c53d9f4b067d234ccc87b46.png

Means they need to get to at least 11 rounds for a bet to win

yeah i think they can definitely manage 11 rounds

denial are destroying mythic on nuke right now, so thats probably lost :/
anything goes in csgo
contemplating switching to denial for c9 v denial, especially with the potential of DDOS affecting C9
Ascendancy look to be in a good position to take their match v CLG to map 3 at the moment.

looks like switching the pick to denial was the right call, with the addition of sancz and professor_chaos denial could be a top 3 NA team

cant place bets on lounge it seems, "try again in a few seconds" over and over,
VP v FSid3 - VP
Volgare V WilD - Volgare
VP v TSM - depends on Virtus.Plow or Virtus.Throw, ill be betting small on VP
Ignite v FenixFire - Ignite

More picks:

DWG > Blitz
C9 > AffNity
SKDS > Elevate
CLG > Mythic

Good day, makes up for yesterday's losses, but forgot to place a bet on Volgare v WilD, but worked out i guess
http://i.gyazo.com/b8cd7be68ac18f24cd33b66cc8b4843c.png

Inventory after withdrawing everything < 0.5 usd, its hard to keep track of "value" because of market fluctuations
http://i.gyazo.com/d6d9c1deea46ca55f38b2b524b2c1e99.png

a few picks for tomorrow, will switch my pick on mouz v HR depending on mouz's stand in, I advise anyone following these picks to do the same based on their judgement.
http://i.gyazo.com/41ee8118a2cb54a37c9b0de266ac5879.png

OK
Thanks for the advice.

YEah..Nitrogen or Directbet seems to be the best..check em both out.

Fnatic is selling most of valueless games, but VP is different. They will win this one fairly easy.

seeing some games pop up
http://i.gyazo.com/d2afb665942806f10a50a310fcd80e7b.png
Second mouz v HR game
http://i.gyazo.com/a9f47c70c5706b05c23aaaa5cf70e7ee.png
ChrisJ missing his shots, may switch to HR for the second game depending on how mouz looks throughout the second half.

some results; not bad, woulve been great if penta took that game, but good that titan took theirs vs fantic
http://i.gyazo.com/9e49031cb6b7ebc5c4599984630b4b50.png
TSM are completely destroying F.Sid3 atm, with 9 rounds on T side nuke first half.

you gonna be betting on tonights???

results of other bets:
http://i.gyazo.com/9728a4f56b29686af78d74c87d07d3fa.png

im betting on mythic vs cloud 9 # all in on MYTHIC! And a 3 dollar bet on A51!

ill be posting the NA bets soon

c9 dont practice season and its a bo1, not to mention Mythic has been slacking a bit lately, im personally skipping.

NA bets 2/24
http://i.gyazo.com/0e1710325181cb426c9b12c1bd557a66.png

I don't like tonight's games. I probably won't play and pass them.

Don't bet big skins in Best-of-1 matches. Go low against lower percentage if it worths to take that risk.

unrelated note: mythic men got a new logo just now

update:
low on BackFire
http://i.gyazo.com/4e78fe7bb9df72603eb4ed167238b4a9.png

mythic are looking rather weak right now vs C9, never all in.
with A51's new roster (- summit, +juv3nile) mythic might be caught off guard, but summit was probably their strongest individual player, icb / real low bet on A51 might pay off.
Edit: looks like mythic are warming up

nah, I didin't all in but I did put 8$ on them, tobad they lost. Close Game tho! Sucks cause Lex got Ddossed
after watching that game i switched my liquid bet to mythic LOL fuck! mythics T side on inferno BLOWS ASS.........

Results of today's NA matches + inv after withdrawing everything > 0.5 usd:
http://i.gyazo.com/cff4c7783cd8e121f53fc0dc5fd772e9.pnghttp://i.gyazo.com/603f8ddef1c6d914f9e254bf4367d812.png
pretty good overall

all on the underdogs for tomorrow
http://i.gyazo.com/4ee40c22008b109ea8d8e805643d5e5d.png

TSM v NiP might not go so well, Xist seems to be having some VAC issues
edit: game postponed (3 days) on lounge

nV v F.S being played on de_inferno, 90% sure nV wins that

results of EU matches 2/15
the second mouz v penta match was intense, mouz bringing it back from an abysmal T first half on nuke. skipped first mouz v penta game, which swayed odds a lot and gave me bigger winnings on second game
http://i.gyazo.com/75a887404371b7776a5da410a3acf46d.png
positive for the EU games

also won VP :) easy win

when the Virtus.Plow picks mirage you dont bet against them. G_G EZ

Picks for NA 2/25
NOTE: SKDC just lost their IGL, Ocean. former standin Virtus will be playing in his place. ASC has talent, they have a real shot at taking this game.
http://i.gyazo.com/5100dd090f1c6039cb01bc7380ae5aab.png

C9 v Denial is close, but Denial seem to e on track to take map 3 with a 4-3 lead on T side Inferno. Will start making picks for tomorrow's EU games.
edit: C9 brought it back on a eco round, they look set to win

Results of NA bets:
http://i.gyazo.com/7316724c74d2562c8f921f4af3f1260e.png
denial v C9 was close, if they didnt get eco'd second round of second half I feel they mightve had a good chance

EU bets for tomorrow:
http://i.gyazo.com/ef72f1e7ef32036366c4746fbb4c7a87.png

really expected s1mple and de_navi to pull through, unfortunate.
nV still "saving strats"
http://i.gyazo.com/dd70fa0ab60ed056aeb6e204f30062f1.png

Apparently Ignite are sketchy
http://i.gyazo.com/c06d95154b49424ffce66202de5ecaff.png

Tomorrow's EU bets:
http://i.gyazo.com/65c6b03d26d3aa925824a3647f051a5d.png
First game: xgame is check6 from earlier today, you may want to bet high on them but I have no information other than the roster for Divine. for all I know, they could all be wallhackers. No idea about exploders either. TSM v Wrecking is a bo1, same argument. I will be skipping every EU game tomorrow. If you like, you may want to bet high on TSM, but too much risk for me with an unknown team and not enough return with 90-10 odds. Will probably bet on the NA games that come up tomorrow. However, for anyone that likes to do a bit of their own analysis, don't think too much on ESEA matches if they conflict with other CEVO / FACEIT matches, ESEA cancels matches if a team is late and does not allow them to reschedule. (FFL)

No games for 2 days (GamePlan Pro League), managed to sell enough returns to buy a nice skin to bet with when the 7 day trade restriction is lifted, and an inventory update after selling some things
http://i.gyazo.com/179662ab44d2e6170beb2165a3b556c4.pnghttp://i.gyazo.com/38cde790976a862c4b4e58fe01b6bb79.png

Picks for the new games:
http://i.gyazo.com/4ffe6aa83dc3a5457f1c4d985f13e156.png
Bet on the overdogs for CLG v Affnity and Liquid v ASC, odds too low for me to bet. Also, there is speculation of GGWP v Exploders being a throw..
NOTE: Luminosity (LG) are former Mythic

some games popped up while I was sleeping
http://i.gyazo.com/d55ddb3c46fc667002add1454c9ee234.png

too drunk to update good night

slept through a lot of the games
http://i.gyazo.com/75fd7165adb79b2a6f1e243b028a2f78.png

results: got a nice return from that liquid v CLG
http://i.gyazo.com/ace98c6c17f686033a87adb5f92c00e8.png

Neat plugin (http://www.reddit.com/r/csgobetting/comments/2xkd8r/csglscript_showing_the_maps_played_and_rosters/) that shows rosters and map for matches on lounge, as well as the ESEA picks:
http://i.gyazo.com/00fa7d8f08283f95319ee068d286576b.png
I don't think SKDC can take a bo1 nuke off C9, and odds arent good enough for me to bet on C9. All three of the ESEA matches are bo1 nuke.

Some stats since the creation of this thread (2/19) and some before:
http://i.gyazo.com/674bacbc82efcb5e00addce35e74ba67.png

Well, I've bet on a few games myself, but it's been something along the lines of +0.9 value, assuming that you're using CSGOLounge.

ESports is just too risky, since there are fewer regulations in place for activities such as throwing, and players can easily have off days with no warning what-so-ever.

For those of you who HAVE made a profit, however, I congratulate you, since a majority of people I see are losing their bets as opposed to winning. Keep it up!

its about making a substantial long term profit, not +value over a few games. ive garnered enough to buy a bs asiimov from just selling small returns. I take just about every factor from off days to ddos when making a decision for these games.

If you're able to do that, please, tell me how you find all that information, and what your decision process is. I've always been interested in betting skins, but I've been to nervous due to all the variables that are applicable.

And a bs Asiimov is very good to be honest. I think I've only ever pulled some stickers and a MW P250

wont disclose my decision process for free, and some of the information i take into consideration is gathered from from hltv (match history / rosters). the bulk of the information comes from the information i gather from watching countless games. seeing as how several people have pmed me asking for in-depth analysis or to disclose my decision making process i might set up some premium thing if enough people ask.

note: denial just took the game against liquid.

results:
http://i.gyazo.com/d2c8050e44a081de392cdd098cda9840.png
feel like A51 could have taken it or made it insanely close if summit showed up

Nitrogensports had an e-sports category? wow

I can't find CS:G there but I'd be super interested to know if there are other websites that accept bets for e-sport matches.

Theyre listed for a few hours before the matches actually start; I think CEVO and FACEIT matches are listed there, don't remember about ESEA matches. I would post bets from there on here too but lounge just lists a lot more games in comparison.
http://i.gyazo.com/eebd5559e958f936588543c7b29a5664.png

loungestats does this for me now

x6tence takes the match v Volgare, GPlay looks like they might upset dig.
virtus.plow also seem to be on point v navi atm, Orbit also looking strong on map 1 vs x6tence
this orbit v x6tence match is nuts, fuck studying watch counter strike

Bored so I threw a few bucks on this VP/Titan match.  Never watched a CSGO match before.  It looks like two guys are sitting in their bedrooms talking on webcams.  Seems interesting.

I'm curious, do you just bet chalk or is there a modicum of handicapping going on?

i bet an amount I feel is optimal for my total bankroll compared to the risk and reward of the odds on the match

Right, that's BRM though.  I'm asking about handicapping.  For example, I tailed your VP bet @ -253.  Now even though VP seems like the better team, and will win >50% of the time, it's only a +ev bet if they win >71.6% of the time.  I'm wondering if it's a situation where you feel they win the match >75% of the time, or do you just think they are the better team and that's the extent of it?

im just a student that does this as a hobby to have fun with and potentially make some profit on the side; i dont take it that far but I felt confident enough in the pick that given circumstances, VP would win. There isnt a surefire method to calculate that VP would win 75% of the time, as the map pick does play a significant role in these games, and those picks arent announced until 2-3 minutes before the match actually starts. However, given the map pool provided by the ESEA league, I felt that VP had enough of an edge over Titan to make a bet on them.

Well it looks like VP is crushing it, so good work.

Those calculations are needed to make profit long-term, because of the fact that on a lot of these heavy favorites you are laying big odds. 

im aware that those calculations are necessary, but imo there are way too many variables that come into play that are completely unpredictable (ddos), and I do not have the time for that. even now I'm watching these games on my second monitor and reading a pdf of a textbook for an exam I have tomorrow.

also 12-3 CT half on nuke can be considered normal, the map is insanely CT sided. I wouldnt be surprised if Titan manage a small comeback, but I expect VP to take the match.

GPlay upsets Dignitas, unfortunate. Was a close game and they played very well, shouldn't underestimate them again.

NOTE: FenixFire v BackFire is acutally a bo1 on D2, as opposed to a bo3 listed on both hltv AND lounge. this could turn out bad because of misinformation.

Would the change help backfire more?  Is there much of a difference in betting the first map or the series overall?  Sorry for the amateurish questions, but it was a pretty fun sweat this afternoon and I'm looking to put another bet down for this evening and am just trying to get as much information as I can on a subject I am very ignorant on.

Well we all start from somewhere ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
First map bets are listed on nitrogensports, but not on lounge; all the games on lounge are for match victor. However, in this case, there was some misinformation stating that this FF v BF match was a best of 3 (bo3), when in reality the match is a bo1, where only 1 map is played out.

Dust 2 is the most iconic map in counter strike; it has been played to no end and most strats and tactics have been played out numerous times, and there are really no surprises that come to a seasoned player, causing this map to be more based on raw skill and aim over strategy and executions. This makes it easier for underdog teams, especially on a best of 1, to upset the favorite. However, I have placed a fairly large bet on this match assuming a bo3, putting me in a precarious situation. If BackFire are on point im basically fucked. Luckily I'll have a few hours to put some more thought into the matchup now. Doesn't help that I have litle info on both BackFire and Fenix

Also, Orbit look poised to take the match vs x6tence with a 9-6 lead on T side Inferno.

I'd advise a small bet on BackFire, I believe the odds are a tad skewed from the misinformation and being a bo1 on d2, I'd put the match at a more 40-60 or 45-55 favoring Fenix.
http://i.gyazo.com/6a33c97fbce563b54dd6d39bc484138c.png
also contemplating making a steam group so people may discuss this stuff and what not as this thread is picking up a bit. feedback appreciated.

I only bet on Nitro, so I assume it wouldn't be smart to bet on the match line since if there is only one game in the match it'll prob get scratched.

Looks like BF is still listed as almost a 2:1 underdog, if you think that the map change evens up the match a little bit, I guess it would make sense to bet on them and take the odds.  I also see there is a 3.5 line, so if you think the map switch means that it's very likely to be a very close match (from watching the last match I'm guessing all of them are first-to-16?), that bet might have some value.  

probably wont get cancelled, as it was already set to be a bo1 on dust 2, but the wrong information was displayed on lounge and hltv (there was no switch). And i agree on the underdog bet here, it also seems that one of the members for FF did not play with the team the last 2 matches, which could mean communication is potentially a bit off, in addition to dust 2 historically not being a strong map for Fenix.

Bet for now, might change based on how Elevate performs vs SKDC. Im expecting Elevate to take both their matches tonight.
http://i.gyazo.com/b82a178d277f9ec877a38cac355f584a.png

small bet on (F.Sid3) vs NiP, consolidation match for lower bracket, neither teams will probably care about the outcome.

Yeah I think it wont be a interesting game to bet on. Not a lot of people care about the outcome of the game. NiP also had lost to the other teams in the lower league last month and aren't upto much good these past few weeks.

also, with katowice coming up shortly, id advise everyone to get their hands on their betting skins (for lounge) for the event soon.

Piter vs Mouz?   :o 8) ;)

mouz just lost a player and piter has talented players, and with the number of bets that came up I dont want to put the rest of my bankroll on bets in the case that everything goes wrong with all of these factors, its a skip for me. however, id put it at 65-35 60-40 in favor of mouz depending on map picks.

note: volgare v myxmg was cancelled, so I put a small bet on mouz.

These skins that you are betting, do people get them (originally) through game play or do they buy them on steam?  How would you cash them out?

Too much to explain about weapon drops and cases, but I started out beting again a week before this thread was made with an ak red laminate (~5 usd) and worked it up to whatever you see me update with. I believe I bought that item around a year ago from the steam market.

also, there is speculation of Ignite cheating, I just remembered this and realized that I shouldve skipped. also, the prize pool for RGN is small, and with the odds as they are, a throw may be possible (if they really cheat they wont give 2 shits about throwing). If you havent bet yet, skip.

In there a wiki or someplace where I can read up on weapon drops and cases?  Watching these games over the past couple days made me interested in buying the game and playing a bit and I'm curious how to best spend my money.  That's also why I was asking about how to cash out...let's say you had $500 in skins and wanted to convert that to actual money.  Are there people who buy at those prices?

:(
http://i.gyazo.com/5b7c8b9fc9eccd1acf356a704a4a2999.png

a simple gogle search does so much
http://www.reddit.com/r/GlobalOffensiveTrade/comments/2konk1/psa_fluxs_guide_to_csgo_trading_and_how_to_do/
http://www.reddit.com/r/GlobalOffensiveTrade/comments/1t9m2z/psa_cashing_out_advice/
http://forums.steamrep.com/threads/beginners-guide-to-trading-selling.677/

basically if you have paypal / btc to use find a trusted seller and a middleman from steamrep, buy betting skins for money, and use those. If not, you can always resort to the steam market. To cash out, trade people for keys and sell those few at a time to key buyers at a discounted price.

There is a decent methrod of "cashing out" that you can do if you have some $ of btc on the side.

Basically you bet on team A(fav) to win with $/btc, and 'hedge' your bet with betting items on team B(underdog)

Yeah none of that really answers my questions, but that's ok I'll just look around and figure it out.  Thanks again for the picks, I've enjoyed tailing.

That makes sense, gotta pay a decent amount of vig but theres no real risk there.

Basically what I'm asking is, if a gun is "worth" $100, are there people who are actually paying $100 for it, or is it just kind of an arbitrary pricing system to facilitate betting?

A "vig" that you will pay trying to cashout by selling items to someone directly for paypal or w/e will be larger. I'm not super in touch with steam trading right now, but i think that by cashing out people usually lose about 20-30% of item's value. So in your example, a 100$ gun would be like 70-80$ on paypal.

http://i.gyazo.com/517ddb4dd5f4abd9aaa2663d52498341.png

Prices for skins under 400$ are based off the steam market; and for RMT, skins are usually sold at 60 ~ 80% of the market's price. High tier knives, however, are a goddamn hassle to deal with (omg rare pattern worth 50% more). Some of these knives can be in the thousands of dollars. However, there are markets for trading, such as the /r/GlobalOffensiveTrade subreddit. Just make sure you find a trusted middleman from Steamrep and be wary of scams.

Example case you just won 300$ of asiimovs from a huge bet (5 asiimovs at 60 each). Lets say We selling for bitcoin here, 45- 50 usd each. You would set up a trade with a person who will agree with the price, find a middleman from steamrep, and you would receive the money in exchange for the skins you won.

edit: magic beat me to it

http://i.gyazo.com/3f1932efc8a87707ea172a9fe224213d.png
Ignite (suspected cheaters) have 1 bo3 advantage of 3 bo3's, gonna be a long ass match not watching that shit)
SKDC in a huge slump recently and summit is a great individual player, he can go nuts and carry A51.
CLG CLG CLG CLG
CLG are playing well, top NA or second next to C9. Liquid has been slumping as well.

RGN, winner gets 500$ total, loser 300 regardless. I feel a throw, especally with how fishy sick was, constantly changing his name (sick -> sick-); I read somewhere at some point tha I do not remember that the anti-cheat is a joke and can be avoided by just changing one's name. With how often he changes his name and the sick headshots sick was making I wouldnt put it past them to throw. I may be wrong but its just a gut feeling, I advise everyone to skip the match if they can, and for those who have just flip a coin rip skinz
http://i.gyazo.com/ad23771b1fc25a16c782998ed3217432.png
Also, odds have shifted from ~15 -> 23% on lounge in a few hours, just seems way too fishy. paul_newman's profile is also private, possible stormberg added to his friendlist. Let me fetch my tinfoil hat for this game and confirm illuminati, of course I could be wrong and end up losing 12$ of skins in 2 aimbot heavy matches. Shouldnt have bet :/

It is funny how I stopped playing CS just because I thought it was plagues bye cheaters. And now I read that even on the professional scene in pro games they are cheating? This is ridiculous. Anyway my question: in case of proven that team was cheating my bet is returned or not?

Lounge's policy is that in the case that the tourney organizers, in this case RNG / CEVO announces / bans a cheater during the match, the bets will be cancelled and returned. If the announcement is made after the game, well shit :(
However, if we see ragehacks 180 no scopes triggerbot faze clan level shit I'd trust lounge to make the right call

3 skinz bet twentythree% odds best of three matches illuminati confirm this match
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1550541334/eye_reasonably_small_400x400.jpg

EDIT: odds keep shifting, maybe Stormberg betting from his 100+ alt accounts?

I have played CS since year 2000. I have seen CS 1.0, 1.3, 1.5, 1.6, Condition-Zero, Source and now GO. Now I am avid spectator of pro matches. For all these year the worst thing in CS were cheaters. Valve - the biggest gaming company in the world can't do s**t about them even on competitive level? Is is so frustrating that weird shots and badass luck is so visible during the match. I am no longer sure if that is skill or cheat.That is why I am considering sticking to some games without cheats - like DOTA2 and stop betting  on CS games.

some of the detection issues were an issue with how intrusive VAC can be in terms of system memory. If i recall correctly there was a well known cheater, Mekelek, who coded his own cheats and ragehacked to boost players. However, he had some weird overwatch evasion and cheats that utilized the kernel. As VAC reads system memory to see if an external program is reading memory from CS:GO, VAC did not touch the kernel. Recently pro players (KQLY) was banned only because ESEA worked with Valve to detect the cheat he used (ESEA anti cheat >> VAC).

As for Dota 2, I know that LoL has scripts that basically allows a player to perform inhuman actions, I wouldnt put it past coders to have made scripts for Dota 2 yet, especially with how lacking VAC can be.

Will Ignite Throw? (Strawpoll) (http://strawpoll.me/3783807)

There is a difference. In dota - scripts are not gonna do anything really important to you, they are really insignificant addition. But aimbot or wallhack in CS is a core element and a key to  victory. There were a problem with cheats in Dota2 couple years back when maphack was available. But with Dota2 and different client-server structure is not the case anymore.

PS. I Voted for Aimbots in the poll.

A51 squeaking out a win vs SKDC, Arya is fucking nuts with that 1v3 clutch.
CLG takes their game vs TL too.
the fuck... looks like ddos or something on Ignite v FF, only 3 rounds into second map in 3 hours.

so my crazy conspiracy theory was wrong, but won the other 2 bets, made up for losses. just need to start winning more again
http://i.gyazo.com/ede46e6ecb4c8f52e53140743dde575c.png

I am just going to assume when you bet more it is safer?
I don't have much to bet with and I am trying to not do risky bets.
Is there anyway you can I don't know like highlight the less risky bets.

Betting more =/= safer.

The less risky bets will often be when a pro league team plays a challenger team, but always do your research. It's normally fairly easy to determine which games will be less risky, however you have to be careful. Sometimes the best of the best lose to a challenger team.

If there's a 90-10 betting ratio, check the teams. Check all the stats and recent match histories. Check EVERYTHING. Then, bet wherever you see fit.

(And if you bet on a team that has 90%+, don't expect many returns. That means a lot of people are betting for that team, and not a lot against, meaning there will be fewer items to go around.)

well said, always play the odds to an extent. that being said, icb on penta, game starting in 20 minutes or so.

low on denial, hurts to bet against CLG but thats what the numbers say

You've been killing it with these picks.  Am I reading correctly that tonight you like Denial over CLG and Luminosity over Elevate?

rip fn m4 guardian gg orbit turned it ON.. but yeah I'd put denial v clg at 60-40 clg, good for an underdog bet. still thinking about luminosity a bit but for now I think they can take elevate.

Annoying but I need to make some money back before Katowice. It's all up to Denial...

that game is a risky bet

A51 does not have summit with them tonight, but liquid are in a slump, pretty safe on liquid but I'm skipping because of odds.

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/golf-clap.gif

If you have a nitro account let me know the account#, thanks again for the solid picks.

sure thing, my account number is : 269891
ill post results after the luminosity game is drafted on lounge, picks shortly after.

Cool, shipped you a couple bucks as a thanks for your hard work.

Not sure what drafted means, but that game ended a little while ago and was pretty good, esp since Luminosity had to use someone off of their bench (the whole 'players/teams getting DDOS'ed is interesting to me, you don't see that with other sports bets).

thanks for the tip
drafting is pretty much giving out the skins to the players who bet correctly; it hasnt gone through yet on lounge so im just stuck here waiting

so apparently Elevate are salty about the loss and think that Luminosity were hacking, draft on lounge going to be delayed a lot

Hahaha, luckily nitro already paid out.  Do you think that those complaints are valid?

no clue, i didnt watch the game because i was at work, but apparently from the reddit comments, fl0m hit a few lucky shots through smoke and that was it.

draft going to take ages, some picks for tomorrow:
http://i.gyazo.com/80888ad73b02f105bd984ace61f14b97.png

Looks like I was a little late on most of these (nitro closes the betting lines way early on esports matches).  I can get in on the CW/Navi match but I'd only be getting +170 on CW.  Looks like the only other games open for this afternoon are flipsid/Envy (+300/-435), penta/fnatic (+419/-676), and mous/flipsid (+120/-155) so they all seem like pretty long odds except for the last one...any thoughts?  Thanks.

mouz v FS is pretty risky imo

placing a small 2$ bet on mouz

CW look pretty set to upset Na'Vi, losing map on on mirage, but was a close game, and just won map 2 on Inferno. Considering mirage is dubbed "de_navi" for a reason, I expect CW to take this 2-1
nvm, navi probably going to take the match 2:1 on overpass

maybe i should just stick to NA bets...
http://i.gyazo.com/b71344ffb430035a6e79aa5a2a1f1109.png

http://i.gyazo.com/61384112a4d892f9f447e3776cd224fc.png
if any of you are betting on SYNERGY v SKDC, SYN = former AffNity

http://i.gyazo.com/9f0a86c5b677426754059723597e3e96.png
Just saw that Property has an unknown standin for this game, even if LGB are saving strats for katowice, they should take this.
also, I will be offering middleman services for CSGO trades starting now. just shoot me a PM and we can get set up for anyone interested. 2% fee.

NOTE: for the second property game (vs g2 i think it was) Fnatic JW will be standing in for pauf. ez.

Betting on the underdog :P
http://i.gyazo.com/ed49fa52712347759a217475fedfc76a.png

Good luck!

g2 are a good team, gl

http://i.gyazo.com/d5f80dcd2347bf341a886ee39e7fd180.png
TBD = HR

JW slumped during the property game, only bet lost so far.

small bet on skdc

SKDC currently up 1-0 in a bo5, might be the first match they win in who knows how long

won 5/6 of todays bets, and SKDC finally won a game.. wow
not bad overall, hope some of you won big  :)
http://i.gyazo.com/1141202a98b7b8f4f1808d4feb2810fb.png

1 bet for tomorrow for now
http://i.gyazo.com/389c0fda447dcace26760686f97208d0.png

I only had time to bet one of those.

Guess which one.

W/L doesnt matter, it only matters how much in the green you are.
http://i.gyazo.com/5e798de97c68eefe928ee7ff261dbc77.png

Volgare V Property going down to the wire, double OT on map 3. Forgot to bet on CW v Penta because i was watching

EDIT: volgare wins 28-25 in quad OT third map.

expected a close game, but not THIS close.
http://i.gyazo.com/3425eafc84f1e441d93175e40be71096.png

UPDATE post:
Withdrew a lot of stuff that I either wanted to use or sell off, new returns inventory to give you all idea of what im working with this coming week. Also, LoungeStats shows im up about ~45$ now, if youve been following my bets you should be up a fair amount as well.
http://i.gyazo.com/c7947591798715c82c18b817a05bb7d6.png
Also, when Katowice starts I will be bringing in some stuff I bought earlier with previous returns, hopefully will make insane profits.
(+1 bs awp asiimov, +2 ak redline FT -> 55$)
Goal is to be able to max bet after Katowice ends, but that might be too ambitious.

Would it be too late to buy a steam card and invest some money for Katowice.
I am playing with only like a dollar now but would like to try with more but is the 7 day trade thing going to stop me?

katowice starts on the 15th, so you still have time

Would advise to skip everything tomorrow, bunch of T2 teams in bo1's.
throwing down some bets for fun
http://i.gyazo.com/490009187b9fe0316e6c1367fcf83f3d.png

Lost all three of the bets I made for fun, oh well
Small bet on mouz
http://i.gyazo.com/9d6f372f417da60effb45b7f232f6aab.png

Orbit as well
http://i.gyazo.com/2fbc09f4b3a803a1298b4fe42bdd6dce.png
also another low bet on volgare.

haha i have been doing safe-ish bets up until Katowice so i have some skins to play with and I threw them all away with those T2 games. RIP! I only won 1

I did advise to skip them all...

I know i am addicted! Going to take a step back and go for the profit!

Pro tip/ Not pro tip at all. 
Pick your favourite team, they may not always win, but they always win over your heart.  That is what I love and that makes it almost like a sports team aswell.   ;) ;)

no bets on lounge, well shit

a few underdog picks
http://i.gyazo.com/706802948599eeec57f02c268d3ad6ad.png

underdog picks not going well, especially 3dmax, they look lost without allu now. Going med on Dignitas on their game vs 3DMAX.

lost a fair amount, but it happens.
http://i.gyazo.com/207c824673c84e1ae47377641ff2f83d.png
I dont understand 3dmax at all

It says it ends on the 15th :( Oh well for later bets i guess!

guess it starts on the 13th then i guess
you may still be able to bet if you find a way to obtain skins through trade instead of the market, such as opskins

small on G2
http://i.gyazo.com/03bae4cdbe81034bfabe52aa35ebd762.png

Katowice games starting to get added on lounge, will likely be betting on both lounge and nitrogensports for katowice.

G2 v Dignitas got postponed, 1 med bet
http://i.gyazo.com/fd27cef15874faf2dae0037f0bc28af2.png

WiLD decide to learn overpass in between games or something
 >:(

Going to start betting on katowice games now
a few notes:

a lot of these teams have been saving strats and have been "underperforming" for a while, but I expect all of them to give it everything they have to win any and every match they can. In addition, the NA scene is a lot better than it used to be compared to last year. As many of these NA vs EU teams may be going head to head for the first time, all of these games will be hard to predict. In addition, the group stage games are all best of 1.

Being a LAN, we don't have to worry about network-related issued such as ping or DDOS, and there will be technicians on-site to fix any technical problems that may arise. This will make bets a little easier, BUT, for some of these teams, being on the big stage in front of thousands of people will be a first for some of these teams, and this may be either motivating or intimidating to these teams.

Even with all this, we can still expect the favorites to make it out of their respective group stage brackets (Fnatic, nV, NiP, VP). However, upsets are likely and will happen, especially for the NA v EU matches.

Either way, we can expect nutty plays and great matches, and hopefully drops.

Going to put more thinking into these games than usual, picks will come slowly, but I will try to post a pick for every game I think is worth betting on.

http://www.esl-one.com/csgo/katowice-2015/group-stage/
ESL One Katowice group stage brackets

Also, I will try to post a little bit of analysis for some of these matches if I have he time and am not feeling lazy.

The matches currently listed on lounge are for Groups A and B.
http://i.gyazo.com/6107d8d9d383f132cf8d013a1662a836.png
Without giving analysis, it should be clear that Fnatic should be the clear favorites to make it out of group A.

Fnatic > VOX Eminor

Natus Vincere > Flip.Sid3 Tactics : : **s1mple will not be playing, he is banned from esl and other Valve-sponsored events if I recall correctly. However I and very sure he will not be playing; davcost will be playing in his place. I do think, however, some people may overvalue the raw, VAC-worthy skill that s1mple brings to the team, skewing the odds a bit. Still think a solid pick on Na'Vi though. I'm going to be a tad salty if I lose that bet, you'll see why.

General Prediction for Group B:
http://i.gyazo.com/55d87b29987757a5adf317918d881e17.png
EnVy Us vs. Titan --> nV have been in a slight slump recently, but I ecpect them to be on the top of their game, practicing all they can for this event. Titan, on the other hand, gets flak for "CarryS" being the entire Titan team. As much as I like Titan and would like to see them move out of the group I predict they will lose to nV, win the loser bracket match, then lose to nV again.

LGB vs. Penta --> When comparing individual stats, PENTA as a team are all above LGB's players individually. BUT, LGB does have talented players and solid tactics. However, PENTA has been looking fairly solid with the addition of Troubley. I expect Penta to take this match.

http://i.gyazo.com/a0ecbbc735423b5bdaa9f7cf3271cab3.png
 ::)
going to be so salty if i lose that

http://i.gyazo.com/272ccd033c728050f39b0e820708afb4.png
Throwing a small bet on VOX because it's the first game for fnatic, there is a small possibility that fnatic might not be on the top of their game. I honestly feel VOX gets too little suport for the potential they have.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3vkL1nxQDI

nV won't mess around at all when it comes to a tourney as big as this. They'll want to save their big boosts and strats for the semis and finals, but they won't want to risk losing a single game.
http://i.gyazo.com/0873f5d8303b5d3ff21b26d49ea9547f.png
I do however, expect them to pull out most of their tricks against fnatic, they've lost every game vs them so far, and will be thirsting for that win over them.

Lots of potential in +/-X.5 bets on nitrogensports, will think on those and post tomorrow if theyre listed, havent checked yet.

small bet on a game that popped up
http://i.gyazo.com/532ded8ccaba0c2a0b1ca39bcdf63a29.png
explanation of bo2 -> team x must win both maps to win the match, if the match comes to a 1-1, the game is a draw. safest bets ever imo.

also a few small picks on nitrogen while I'm still figuring out how these work
http://i.gyazo.com/25ffd5fc438ba9047643f7a7ddf6b583.png

I feel CLG might be the best in NA at the moment, with a slight edge over C9, I think they should win this game, but end up losing to NiP.
http://i.gyazo.com/d7d5db989217af950ad283fe921a8a2c.png
predicting NiP will make it out of their group, get_right doesn't fuck around.
http://i.gyazo.com/deaba9d8d5b32de01002d27b6849878f.png

Is it worth an ICB on KeyD? I can afford a bet on NiP but if they lose i have nothing. Is there any chance of them winning?

don't know much about them, but nip do not fuck around, I'd say fairly safe.

I wonder if I'll ever get a drop...

http://i.gyazo.com/f77029fb0d57b0ebd51a5a21f71a0bd0.png
goes against what I picked on nitrogen, but I have a gut feeling

KeyD v HR
http://i.gyazo.com/a1da10f9c1cdaf7c56e29d0980b23636.png

NiP v CLG, just playing the odds here, first time these teams go against each other, NiP might not be prepared for how CLG plays / what they bring.
http://i.gyazo.com/b1c539ff423939cb48452a1ca8f31b77.png

update for the first halfish of games
http://i.gyazo.com/5f4f87f5d2cad52a20d99b7b988fbc87.png

expecting VP to take this easily, not betting because odds.
http://i.gyazo.com/fab3eab7f2ae75b1c38fd98e39386c56.png

http://i.gyazo.com/f82d9eeaf82e5ee373448730ba396132.png
KeyD upsets HR did not expect. skipping the KeyD v CLG (most likely) game.

Do you think there's value in VP -5.5 @ even money?

hardcore VP fan, plus VP were last year's champions, as I said earlier in the thread I don't do handicapping or any intense calculations of the sort.
I have full trust VP will win this. If they don't well shit Virtus.Throw

This tournament is so easy to predict in quarter finals.

https://i.imgur.com/Ssl87Hj.jpg

Service looks very good, sadly I play dota 2 much more than csgo (still have over 100 hours on csgo though), so if you could provide dota 2 picks that would be fantastic. You seem to be on the most part correct.

maybe C9 can pull off another win vs TSM
http://i.gyazo.com/b78ef75525bfb097cf9880f3b2cd8b42.png

This is the group stage, of course it's fairly predictable, but I don't like just taking safe picks, its not fun and doesnt make the games exciting to watch. taking small risks, like I di on CLG v HR and C9 v TSM make the betting a lot more enjoyable imo, and pays off.

aha i went - on these games... but there is still time!

going off to work so I won't be able to update often, and won't be able to post results for TSM v C9, but here is the loungestats graph for Katowice Day 1. hope you guys made some ez skins  ;D
http://i.gyazo.com/2bac296cd9b65d2943daeab069578864.png
VP v C9 game not included in graph

so my account is banned for "insubstantial posts," I'll be posting from this account sporadically to update bets, but spring break just started and all, won't be as often as one might like. For tomorrow, I'd go medium to high on all the overdogs, all the matches are bo3 and nV, Fnatic, VP, and NiP are all looking to win this tourney. I'd say pretty safe.

NiP > TSM obviously
I think Fnatic > VP but I think a small underdog bet might be worth in case the Virtus.Plow shows up huge.
nV vs NiP, hard to decide, id say pretty close to 50-50, just going to place a small bet later based on odds.

WTF how was your account banned, and how long will it be? Also I wouldn't make another account, mods now know you are evading a ban and you might get even worse consequences. Ban evasion is a rule here. Your posts weren't very insubstantial lol, probably better than most people posting.

http://i.gyazo.com/177a3899b9558a57f0340499e89d53db.png
mods are salty so im quitting this thread, was a short ride but if posting picks as they come along is considered "spam" and "insubstantial" then theres no point in me posting here to help people, I may be back in a few months if im not too busy, bye

EDIT: because this post may be "insubstantial,"
NiP > nV, going high on this one, NiP shines in bo3 matches and they are bloodthirsty for the championship win here.
In the final match tomorrow, I see Fnatic or NiP winning, depending on odds, a bet on VP may be worth it as they were last year's champions and are more than capable of keeping that title. However, with the roster change on NiP and Fnatic's performance over the last few months I'd say these two hold a slight edge over the other teams. when my ban is up ill post picks every now and then but don't expect too much, when finals are over and summer break starts I'll post bets on every match again. That's the plan for now at least. Best of luck to all of you that follow this thread.
http://i.gyazo.com/abb28d9edaa3bce1953c2d4d5dcfd3cc.png

***PM MAIN ACC (MICHINZX) WITH STEAM PROFILE LINK FOR STEAM GROUP INVITE, WILL DO PICKS THERE IN THE MEANTIME

I am not a mod, but I believe the problem is not about the picks but your frequent "updates" in this thread.
There is a sticky thread "Marketplace rules and guidelines" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3629.0, and one of the rules is that you should only bump the thread (including update) once every 24 hours.
Looking at the previous page, I see you did make quite some updates a day, and that likely caused your first ban.

Yep I called it. I knew you would be banne dlol they get pretty salty about ban evasion, 30 days is quite a bit of itme. Well hopefully your gonna be back soon!

Betting on Elevate > Luminosity
game starts in ~10 minutes

yea, thats a good bet i believe. I also have it and need it to come through on this parlay. Good luck with the bets.

Damn, looking at csgolounge recent games, navi's been killing it lately.

yeah, its making my decision on Navi v NiP pretty hard right now, especially considering i stopped following the scene as avidly the last 2 weeks

http://i.gyazo.com/1a1e261664ee4fdf6a57197057b243d6.png
had to downsize bets because uhh...
a certain Fnatic game

unfortunately, I don't really play dota, and ive gotten rather bored with the whole moba genre as well; I don't even play csgo anymore. to get into dota enough to make smart bets will take too much effort and time, so I will not be making any dota bet predictions.

also this.
http://i.gyazo.com/2bf0077a54296c76ba0fb315e5373864.png

http://i.gyazo.com/50da1d5470d1aeb776cf166bdeb50cd7.png
heading out to the gym right now so I won't be able to watch the rest of the games, but from the first flipsid3 v penta game they look pretty good today, i expect them to take their current match (second map inferno), seeing s1mple and worldedit on inferno with their legendary awp skills, even if inferno is penta's pick, and get at least 1 map, if not the win, against G2.

Vulcun has also added CS:GO betting, what do you think?

is vulcun the former league team sponsor and the guys that are doing the fantasy league thing for LoL? I had no idea, but I'll check it out if I have time later. They're a reputable organization so I think its worth giving them a look

http://i.gyazo.com/099685f9c2b6f5cc3cf7389e8187529f.png
last pick for the day, might place an icb on elevate if they win this match though; elevate have a history of dominating on LANs, but the odds on this match are too good to not bet on Nihilium (Former denial), id say 40-60 for this bo3, even if Hiko and the doodle are on elevate. fanboys hyping up the odds a bit too much i think.

edit: second map is nuke for F.S v G2, flipsid3 should take this match considering their performance on their earlier nuke game vs penta.
ez skins ez life

Whats your pick on this:
Im going for CLG I think http://csgolounge.com/match?m=3147

Looks like I was right on this one, it was a damn close game but if my team did not win they had one more BO3 to secure the win because the other team came from the losers bracket.

You should definitely check vulvun. They also accept bitcoin (maybe they stopped??  ???) and have great contests along with free to enter contests very often.

You can optionally enter my ref code when signing up for a 100% deposit bonus. PM me if you want the code, I don't want this to seem like I'm promoting my referral shamelessly. :P

Nah, screw what I said, they no longer accept bitcoin from what it seems.

betting on penta to win vs x6 / cw, low bet

I'll also be on my phone the rest of the day, so expect no pictures if any NA beta come up.

going to bet on Flying V, former vVv. also, mainline from Fenix wont be playing tonight, doublol will be subbing.

and navi r u srs pls ez skins

Good pick of flying V (VvV) Given their recent matches with FF, They have 2-0d them twice recently. i expect a 3-1 or maybe 3-0 for vvv. Will keep watching your picks man.

probably going to be skipping all the CIS games, or we can all just all in on Team Swag Yolo :^)
http://i.gyazo.com/416338fae5df71bdb0d48ab51daccde7.png

ignore what i said earlier, going to be placing a few bets here and there, but expecting the finals to be something like HR v F.S, with flipsid3 most likely winning the CIS tourney.
http://i.gyazo.com/190d17b548d76044b648f34568dd163b.png
expecting HR to win their first game, but not betting b/c odds.

watched a bit of the FF v FV game, looks like flying v had a lot of internet issues and such, happens.

skill-wise, i would put GGWP above weplay, but this is CIS and GGWP have a small history of inconsistency / throwing, so going to put an icb on weplay.

game starts in <10 mins
http://i.gyazo.com/da89659de486dcb8677b28ab09016745.png

looks like mouz is off to a pretty good start on map 1 (inferno)
http://i.gyazo.com/78fd0ec0cfb03aa8682364ca845c2f46.png

small bet on aces, didnt expect fnatic to get upset in a bo3, thought game was 70-30, not enough to warrant a bet on titan for me
http://i.gyazo.com/c3087c140a18998bc0bba96ce131be66.png

recent results:
http://i.gyazo.com/d612dc2374ab020c69f5ee51ecb40d6d.png

maxbet on fnatic would be a good idea, this is ESEA lan and fnatic do not want to get knocked out of the loser bracket in this tourney. high bet on fnatic imo.

going to put a very small bet on team swag yolo, they have a decent chance to upset i think.

not much to say on tomorrow's games yet, just a small underdog bet for now
http://i.gyazo.com/4ebc7c5fd2d24b094c1bfac475d196f4.png

for tomorrow's games, overdog on every game I think, I don't see that much chance or upset.

http://i.gyazo.com/812476abbec5b8dff38c566148e4a7ba.png

small bet, overall player stats point towards an Entity win.

torn on this game, proporty played terrible and gave ldlc.w the win, but at the same time, flipsid3 also played terrible and made a close win vs rock. on a normal day, FS definitely outclasses LDLC, but given the skewed odds from the games mentioned before, a very low bet on LDLC seems alright.
http://i.gyazo.com/f6bb053bae1b1c727dc5c1250de2235f.png
ducks > myXMG most likely, but havent seen these teams in a while so skipping personally.
not much else to say on the other games, most likely skip. haven't seen ldlc.b at all either.

going to msg you as I have some questions

skype doesnt happen. under any circumstance.

why?

do a simple google search, you'll see how many security vulnerabilities skype has. As a result, I do not use skype. feel free to PM me through this site, however. If you are serious about arranging something with me alternative communication can be arranged in the future.

I Am lookin forward to what your picks are for tomorrow. im looking at the HR, PENTA & DIGI games myself, would like to see your input on them. Was wondering if you ever use nitro to do parlays on any of these? Sorry if you have answered this already, quite a few pages to go through. keep up the good work buddy.

i literally just got back home so ill be looking at those games later. as for parlays i have no idea how they work and im too lazy to figure out how and experiment, so wont be bothering. nitrogen is becoming more and more lackluster to say the least, for esports betting, so probably will stop using it altogether if things dont improve.

mich, i totally agree with you about nitrogen going downhill at least on the CSGO betting side. i would suggest btcbook.eu they seem to have the game available way sooner and also up until the match actually starts. I know you said your not really interested in the parlays but its actually pretty simple. For example if you have 3 picks that you are certain will win, you bet them into a parlay. What its doing is after each win, the money rides on to the next game. Meaning, you need to win all the picks to clear the parlay. The downside is if you lose 1 of the 3 picks the whole bet/parlay is a loss, on the upside if they come through its a much better payout than betting the games individually. I prefer to make single bets and also a small parlay of all of my certain picks. You didn't ask but i figured maybe you would like to know. :)

seems like parlays arent for me then, im more concerned with +EV, not winning every bet. as for using other bitcoin sites I may in the future, but for now I'm content with just betting on lounge for fun.

Completely Understandable. To each his own my man. :) Will check back later on when you get your picks out.

http://i.gyazo.com/e13297f73738e9b971932278fb16a369.png

waiting to see how much odds shift as well, may change some bets.

Guys I am sorry CBTC does not offer e-sports betting but hope we do one day.

Where do you guys like to bet on eSports? Also how can you predict it? What do those stats from Steam.com or otherwise say and help you? Curious to learn more. Thanks.



https://www.casinobitco.in/css/img/logo_cb.png (https://CasinoBitco.in/r?u=2690)

nice to see that one of the more prominent members of the community bothered to visit my thread :) As for betting on esports in general, I personally like seeing variety in betting on a single match, ex what nitrogensports does (i dont know whats its called, but ex win 1 game out a bo3, win x rounds out of a bo1 match). If your site was so say, open up esports betting maybe something like x player with most kills, who wins pistol round, etc, might be interesting additions. As for stats I mostly go to HLTV. however, since nitrogen seems to be going downhill at the moment i'd like to see new places for betting on csgo open up with bitcoin. at the moment for reasons I am sticking to lounge and betting with skins but if a great platform opens up for csgo bitcoin betting i would certainly use it. For predicting bets I use some combination of gut feel from watching and analyzing how teams are doing lately as well as variables such as ddos, inconsistency, and maps + vetos. this one is by far the most important, as even a single map pick or veto cna decide a match. as magicmexican stated before somewhere, csgo is very variance-heavy, and gut feel (for me at least) comes in useful, and has worked out so far. (not purely gut feel but calculated to an extent. )
 also steam.com leads to this
http://i.gyazo.com/96ec23484d147a35ac62d479375633ce.png

the gaming platform stea mis store.steampowered.com and steamcommunity.com, and those do not provide statistics of any sort.
I;m just doing homework and whatnot so if you want to learn more / discuess pm me or suggest an alternative method of communication, safe-mail not preferred atm because its on my tails usb and I may or may not have misplaced it fuck. im (very ) drunk so im going to stop.

k1ck did upset today but I don't see them taking a bo5 off of HR, med bet HR for me, sobering up now so ill be heading to bed.

steam or steampowered.com has nothing to do with statistics and betting, you need to use 3rd party sites and services to be able to bet on CSGo matches, like this site http://csgolounge.com/
When you can bet your in game weapon skins (some worth thousands of dollars).

fox is a god of sorts and HR are messing around? (aug buy) might not be 3-0 as I thought, maybe 3-1 if k1ck bring their game, but still expect HR to win easily. As for VP v nV just bet on your favorite team, true 50-50 game for the gambling addicts, will be a great game to watch.

going to be skipping winout v noble, but if you really feel compelled to bet i'd say throw a very small bet onto winout, but I personally have not seen either of these teams in a while so i'll be skipping regardless.

betting on vp > lgb

the virtus plow seems lost somewhere, bets not going too well today; mouz 1-0 up against navi as well
really expected VP to win vs navi, especially on cobble.

I was considering taking VP, but luckily got distracted by something more important and forgot about it. Then later saw a decent steam coming on NaVi and decided to fade VP, knowing their throw'y nature. Looks like they are having an offday.

agreed, and I'm still in the process of judging exactly where this new and improved navi stands, and unfortunately, I dont have enough time on my hands to watch all the games.

new lunatik, new roster. keep that in mind.
http://i.gyazo.com/5eea157800a3fac77272c4a3f3c3223e.png

no idea whats with fnatic right now, so i might skip that game. going to be betting that NiP will win PGL however, going medium-ish on them vs TSM
http://i.gyazo.com/a491a3d089fbbbbe9b84de2355ea0ef2.png

i'm personally going with fnatic on this one
http://i.gyazo.com/491c326296e9aba77264c42d0a0cc621.png

new myRevenge roster, now unbanned from lounge. worth throwing a very small bet to see how it goes.
http://i.gyazo.com/07c0f03d5ff44bb0fa41f56e5a112485.png

seems like TSM, like navi, decided to become a top team all of a sudden
http://i.gyazo.com/146b8785fe237fa84d56c837f95fe5b9.png

thought the odds would settle more around 50-50, if fnatic falls below 40% I will be switching my bet over to them.

betting on navi v penta (navi) is probably a good idea, but I won't be b/c odds. If i had asiimovs I would though. Other than that, there's a truckload of teams that I don't know about, so I'll be skipping a lot of those. underdog bet on Nihilium (former denial) seems good though.
http://i.gyazo.com/66fb2278fb5a62f1ae14a9b27c10e2ec.png

going to bet on G2 to win vs encore, medium bet

important news for clg v nihilium: -flowsicK, + semphis
teamwork will probably be a litle messy, but im still keeping my bet on nihilium; if you haven't bet yet skip.

sa a bit of nihiliumv clg; first map was very close, looks like the new roster will be strong in the future, but NA shuffle isnt over yet.
http://i.gyazo.com/c09dc7cdfe9d422c41999a5ae2eb37df.png

http://i.gyazo.com/21571978488f99c41b0eb1cb65810d6a.png

tsm v navi is going to be VERY fun to watch.

some new games popped up earlier, for lounge people maxbet on nV is a good idea.
http://i.gyazo.com/671b6f769d3ff2c39864fd4c64aef41f.png

Im confused are you betting BTC or are you betting in game items?

He is betting in-game items on http://csgolounge.com/

Wow that is pretty awesome, I didnt know there was something like this.

I have chump items so maybe I will bet a few now.

keep in mind that because of how csgolounge's drafts work, you won't get returns from your winnings if you bet too low. Even if you win but if it was under a certain amount theres a good chance you'll get nothing.

Yeah, not even CS-GO, Dota2 also have their site http://dota2lounge.com/.
That 2 games have betting site. Valve FTW!
Btw, any tips for today ? Wanna going yolo on LDLC vs Piter, is it worth or not ?

please do note that neither of the lounge sites are in any way associated with valve, they are run by third party organizations. Also if you would look above your post you will see my bets for tomorrow. also im assuming that everyone asking for my skype in a pm from now on is doing so with malicious intent, as that last guy went silent after i stated why.

Okay sorry. I do not know that they are run by third party organizations. Well, im asking for is it worth going yolo on that match. And sorry if bother you. Im not going post any in here again.

i dont mind people posting, but i do mind people spreading misinformaton, even if its accidental. question should be answered in the first post; its never worth going "yolo" on any match unless its something along the lines of literal silvers vs fnatic.

michinzx, I was wondering if you have a page with your overall statistics in terms of wins/losses on CSGOLounge. I like seeing your bets and predictions and would like to see your past success rate :)

I used to have loungestats do that for me, but it disappeared all of a sudden; ill get it redownloaded later and update with statistics in the future.

pick your favorite team for the tsm v navi game, last game was unbelievably close, a true 50-50 match.

going to be raising my bet on VP a little bit; predicting a close game on tsm v VP.
TSM seems to have fixed their choking problem, will see how odds settle on that match before making a call
if it ends up tsm v nip, i would giveit to tsm to win the match.

:) Look good enough

VP or fnatic?

with how map bans will probably play out, im going to say vp
http://i.gyazo.com/6dd18ab072a8039d44a9697c2ed6861b.png

probably going to be leaving out a number of my picks for the next few weeks, not going to have as much time to analyze and post with finals starting in a few hours.

I will be posting no-brainer picks like this on for sure though; VP with 30% odds? ez decision, especially since nuke is in the map pool for gameshow series(i think); instant ban from fnatic right there

titan > HR and Fnatic > nV

VP > x6tence

on a bad streak recently; but hopefully itll get better starting now as ill be watching more of the matches for the next week at least since allergy season is keeping me from going outside at all

seeing how HR has improved recently though, an underdog bet might be worth on the game vs Titan.

Big announcement: had some bitcoin lying around that was not being used for drugs, so using ~.1 btc to start on nitrogensports; i see a lot of potential with the options in betting and will gradually shift to using nitrogensports for bitcoin betting, especially since their esports betting has gotten better. Unit size will be 2 mbtc (0.002) with 53 units to start with. Will be doing mostly straight bets, maybe a parlay once in a blue moon.
http://i.gyazo.com/af285ba79f63e3f85a47896d9fdc6266.png

First of many bets to come:
http://i.gyazo.com/62c3f2f14de1b0ac97b83253d3a74038.png

also i take back what I said about not being able to post bets as much; although exams will limit my time quite a bit, allergies are hitting me like a train and it looks like even sudafed isn't doing much to help.

do note that some of these games are not listed on lounge.
http://i.gyazo.com/1563552777624cacb75825250813d6de.png

I would suggest cutting off the red crosses from your screenshots.

To some people, especially ones who dont use nitrogen, it might look like the result of the already lost bet.

thanks for the suggestion, ill keep that in mind from now on.
http://i.gyazo.com/e602e7484d3bd28061cbd81207b44882.png
http://i.gyazo.com/27b5b45a8baa994a23e7bd4105732bca.png

looks like m0E is playing for CLG tonight with ptr gone.

off to a real strong start.
http://i.gyazo.com/e8eedb912be2cab0a588cf2d97f15b62.png
+.00219 btc --> +1.595 units

waiting on the last CLG v LG game to update the other betslip. also will be doubling up my bet for that game with a bet on lounge.
http://i.gyazo.com/deef836b0a4f7344ebd9274a56390e6f.png

also a note on people that may have watched the Titan V HR game: it was 15-14 HR favor and titan was down to 1 player vs 5 on HR, and all 5 members of HR timed out. Titan decided to concede the win seeing that in a 1v5 situation, it was incredibly unlikely titan would clutch the tie. Lounge has drafted the game as an HR win, as did nitrogensports and other bookies.

http://i.gyazo.com/36202b0be5d44903adf3edc77715873a.png
all wins for lounge bets today, 1 match was cancelled.

http://i.gyazo.com/2b0da1549fbcb56832165c2c806cd679.png
+.00511 btc --> +2.555 units

Day 1 was all green with a huge 7% increase in bankroll, hopefully it keeps going like that. Still waiting on one betslip to be drafted though.
http://i.gyazo.com/3cf36567503b8ff961416f7c0c96885f.png

following navi -4.5
good luck for us

following just one of these bets isnt a good idea; for overall profit betting as I do in terms of unit sizing on most of my bets is the better idea.

95% of people here are degens who will just take one of your picks and all-in on it, and will decide if you are good or not based on the result.

if they can't see the big picture, its their loss
also, do you have a guide of some sort on reading point spreads on your blog or something? I need to get a clearer picture on how to read these bets, only have a rough idea right now.

you just add the spread to the final score

Like if a bo3 underdog loses 1 : 2, but with the +1,5 spread the score "would be" 1+1,5 : 2 = 2,5 : 2, so underdog wins

Or if the fav wins 2 : 1, he wins ML but loses the -1,5 spread, because its 2 -1,5 : 1 = 0,5 : 1

so in the Titan v Navi match with -4.5 spread, Navi would have to win with a score of at least 16-10 correct?

16-11 would cover it too, because it would be 16-4,5 to 11 = 11,5 to 11 so navi win by 0,5 point

i see, thanks for the help, ill try to make better bets now with that info.

also, HR v LGB is starting in 5 minutes for anyone watching.
http://www.twitch.tv/esl_greatfrag

going to be putting a small bet on HR v VP, hr win.

I dont know why, but i always have bad luck with E-Sports

I will start following your pick and hope to make some profits, thx for share this information.

luck's just a small part of it, I spend a few hours on the bets I make everyday, especially on those that I don't post on here.
edit: if HR can't take train off VP, it is highly likely they will lose the bo2 vs VP seeing map 2 is mirage.

http://i.gyazo.com/370c1daddc57d17011597eb7295d09bc.png
map 2 is mirage. nuff said.

just trying out the parlay system
http://i.gyazo.com/cad91d128af1b7c6e4cad7b0d29364cb.png

nitrogensports takes eons to grade betslips, may start looking for an alternative if it becomes a real problem, especially since games arent exactly posted quickly as well.

hm ... SYNRGY v Luminosity | Match: Luminosity -4.5 | Odd : 1,8 | Status : Playing


i hope they will win with score 2 : 0   :D

personally skipping that match, haven't seen enough of synergy to make a decision. gl

wish me luck  :) :)

We just added eSports yesterday: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/esports/all/match/
On Fairlay you can bet with an account but you don't have to use one, direct Bitcoin deposits on bets are possible as well. On other sports our odds are clearly superior to all other bookmaker on average. eSports is very new so we can not make say yet how it will play out (we don't make the odds, our user and market maker make them) but we are optimistic than we will offer for eSports soon the bets available odds as well.

So we would be happy if you give it a try and we always are happy about feedback and are usually very quick to make improvements if suggested.

from a first glance, nitrogen, in the current state of things, offers more options in betting wit point spreads and such. in addition, categorization of games on your site is rather basic and seems unorganized. some simple reorganization could really give a lot of visual appeal. In addition, there is no reason or incentive for me to change to status quo and use a different site, especially since it is in beta. with improvements however, fairlay could be a very good alternative if some of its features were to outshine nitrogen.

some updates:
http://i.gyazo.com/6389f40db64d51544967e1eb4b601ab8.png
-
http://i.gyazo.com/c2fadf44311b7ab65571a1d1acc69449.png
-
http://i.gyazo.com/82e6bb671027256f65d89eec2d2759f5.png

+.00814 BTC --> +4.07 units, including 1 small bet i did not post.

still waiting on a lot of bets to be graded; shit takes ages.
however, I see a lot of green on partially graded betslips already, and we are already 15%+ up from original bankroll in just 2 days without even having all the betslips graded. huge successes.

.0185 BTC, or 9.25 units still waiting to be graded.

http://i.gyazo.com/345c66833438d70d0a19dc9c228aaa8e.png

won the parlay: +.00075 btc, +.375 units

Hey michinzx, ty for your input. We can assure you, that we offer all eSports markets Nitrogen has - usually with much better odds.   You find spread markets here : https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/esports/all/spread/
We will take an alternative visualization into consideration. If you are missing any features, please let us know...

thanks for pointing that out to me; if fairlay's odds are superior as you claim, I will take a try at your site in the future; as of this moment however, exams will keep me busy.

the first loss
W E L O S T B O Y S
http://i.gyazo.com/2a54ec3fcb73633ee71c2a4867fa26bf.png
-.001 btc, -.5 units

Seems like a missclick to me, makes no sense to be picking flipside ML here

ah fuck
this is why you dont drink and drive

Was that just a screenshot or did you actually bet on flipside ml for 3.022 odds?

http://i.gyazo.com/f310970796fde7a24da5c60f9a0e654f.png

its in there.. nothing to do about it now, things happen

turned out to be a really close game, mightve paid off.
skipped fnatic v awesomnific(?) b/c beyond terrible odds.
http://i.gyazo.com/02b7c2501554499959175f7f98b9dfdf.png

http://i.gyazo.com/8870af58bf3e9096deac7ea2bfed191d.png
even with nV's performance going downhill lately, they shouldn't be losing to LDLC.W under any circumstances.

http://i.gyazo.com/979a246253fb3de8cdd987698d9f43b2.png
+.00059 btc, +.295 btc

been missing a lot of picks recently, lot of exam preparation going on

putting a ~10$ bet on Titan to win over LDLC.white, pretty good odds here (lounge.

HR got wrecked today, i didnt see the game though.

I dont follow CS at all, but from my selective memory they were usually doing quite ok as underdogs, producing a lot of scrappy/close games, weird to see them being raped 16-3

this dreamhack LAN has a 40k prize pool, and it's on Titan's home turf; with those factored in, as well as Maniac acmitting they  had an absolute shit day they lost that bo3 to HR, i figured Titan you be back at their old level of play, putting them above HR.

http://i.gyazo.com/345ed2106abfada0c95ca85d001c9fad.png
-.002 btc, -1 unit

http://i.gyazo.com/1c8370b82089a9d4ab1a164a2c45624a.png
+.00025 btc, +.125 units

throwing down skins on titan to win over HR, ~$6

http://i.gyazo.com/533f9be80726806be6bc902cbaf85d4a.png

everyone suddenly starts covering esports ._.

Well i dont cover it anymore because i think posting picks on this forum is mostly a waste of time. Just because no one will even follow it properly. Hell, probably 75% of the audience dont know what the odds mean.

map 1 fnatic v HR = inferno
http://i.gyazo.com/24e085ffd584aa5f111b466a01a631e3.png
http://i.gyazo.com/9882efc637fc872613c19c8099737567.png

thats pretty true, over half the people that pm for for "private advice" are just trying to get my skype info
one of the reasons why im not posting 100% of my picks anymore
also not going to be calculating / updating units with every betslip update, will calculate once a day or so
doubling unit size(.002 -> .004), bankroll .1 -> .2

Well thing is, these people dont care about the odds or unit sizing of your picks.

If you want your thread to rise in popularity you need to get rid of all that 'advanced' stuff.

And dont bother worrying about the net win/loss or anything fancy like that, just go for big ML favs and make your winrate look pretty (aim to get 70%+,  doesnt matter if picks would be 1.1-1.3 odds) - thats a recipe to impress the people around here it seems.

its not even that "fancy," just bet small, win small, and make a low risk, sizeable amount from your bankroll
besides who cares about impressing the people on here, its not like i need their approval of my betting

Ye, you dont. I'm just pointing out the overall level of stupidity here.

Btw you should consider testing the fairlay for better odds and faster grading. Difference in odds will add up quite fast in the long run.

Like nitro currently offering Piter - Acer (1.378 v 2.953) and on the fairlay you can get 1.401 v 3.008

ill take a look after exams are done, too busy with them at the moment to mess around with it, thanks for the tip

result of that big betslip from a few days ago
http://i.gyazo.com/cc7a4e52f3a1f232691e539192e87a40.png
all green except for the two cancels

bo1, train
http://i.gyazo.com/67ae88396984b7c9891cbb75cfa5997a.png

VP takes the map vs NiP.
1 more pick for now
http://i.gyazo.com/065ad8363040327006cea3b8a88d5d76.png

wouldve bet 2-3 units on spread and ml map 1 if i got home in time, map 1 turned out to be mirage, shame.

VP getting utterly stomped on overpass by LGB, completely unexpected, but it happens.

I'm starting to follow your bets.  Do you think betting on eSports is a good idea?  I feel like it's easier to throw in an online game compared to a physical sport, so that's why I'm wondering if I should bet a good amount of bitcoins in esports.

The potential ROI in e-sports is way higher compated to 'real' sports (for now), just because there are a lot more square bettors who move the lines and not a lot of sharp competition.

In real sports, its extremely hard to find value because all +ev spots are dissapearing really fast after the lines come up, as a result of all sharp money with statistical models behind them jumping on them as long as they are profitable.

You are also mistaken in your feeling thats its easier to throw in online game compared to a physical sport. I would argue that the reverse is actually way more true.

Yes, there is always the risk of matches being thrown. In CS:GO this past year a tier 1 NA Team was banned from participating in tourneys do to match fixing, thus ruining their careers until the ban ends. So, if you stick to the pro level in my opinion you shouldn't need to worry about match fixing.

you forget that iBP was a pro team, best in NA while they were going. however, in the current time, tier 1 and tier 2 teams very rarely throw now, risk outweigh the potential benefits of throwing right now.

http://i.gyazo.com/3a5b58599691691f8c549e464d403d28.png
elevate are playing poorly in addition to method playing fantastic right now, but nihilium is still the overall better team here.
edit: direct nade on a teammate 10 feet away, bit of communication issues here

as predicted, nihilium takes the map vs elevate, a bit closer than i thought it would be though, 16-13

a random few of the bets i placed on fairlay, moving on from nitrogensports, grading takes way too long and fairlay offers better odds.
http://i.gyazo.com/beae7287c463ca861600d4ef48770f05.png
these free picks were chosen randomly.
a word on fnatic v tsm; tsm seems to have a playstyle that counters fnatic; theyve shown great performances against fnatic in particular, and expect them to win the match, but not betting on a spread because fnatic is fnatic, the best team in the world at the moment.

bonus pick:
odds changed in between my opening the bet page and pressing confirm, odds are decreasing as i type as well.
http://i.gyazo.com/704e88ead5ef5ded63d9144b213ebff7.png
hiko will be playing for Nihilum (confirmed on stream, really.), predicting hiko alone will probably outskill all of LG by himself kappa
but really, hes good and will be an amazing addition to the team.

uunfortunately, TSM got cocky(?) and decided to go t side first on overpass after winning the knife round, and ended up not doing so well. Don't know what happened, but was not expecting this, lot of upset victories from underdog teams today as well.
in addition, fairlay gives the count of mbtc won within the last week, so ill be using that. Also will be restarting the count for units and whatnot, unit size is still 4mbtc, bankroll is at 0.2 btc. from some betslips i placed earlier, i think my bankroll is at ~0.23 right now, not counting the winnings from nitrogen.

quick update as well, second map for titan v mouz has been rescheduled.

Really?  I'm finding it that there are many teams that throw - in fact - I heard that some of them throw just because they bet on themselves to lose. 
But anyways, I'll try my luck and bet on your bets now!  Will get back to you.

yes, that wouldve been the huge ibuypower scandal a few months back, i believe they made a shitload of money off of that too, steel has stated on stream that he has made 100k usd from matchfixing. however, tier 1 teams and most tier 2 teams do not throw afaik. there are incidents where teams that get listed on lounge for the first time have a tendancy to do so, but more often then not they dont care enough to throw (see onlinebots and stormberg incident)

free picks for today
http://i.gyazo.com/27e72e5647b3e7efcebdfefa1db5a825.png
VP v navi:
map 1 is navi pick, map 2 is VP pick.

another pick for today
KeyD stars (you may remember them from katowice) have moved to NA. theyre nutty like shroud.
http://i.gyazo.com/2c584c525a1c5b0a3572e1640a53f39c.png
also on fairlay the format goes event, bet in mbtc, odds, match outcome, and my pick.

edit: teams for gfinity have been announced, C9 doesnt have a chance imo.

what does the 4.00 and 3.00 mean on the side ? how much you wagered on that bet ? or the odd?

that is the bet in mbtc (0.001 BTC).

also for vp v navi, the maps turned out to be mirage and cobble, both of which are strong maps for both teams, and they ended up taking each other's map picks, resulting in 2 losses. unfortunate, but unexpected b/c map picks. mouz did stomp however, with a 16-6 score winning the spread.

a couple picks for today:
http://i.gyazo.com/bf92c0b834e6e404825f5cae670223ab.png
mouz looking real strong the last few times ive seen them, good to see the line up is coming together.
TSM seems to be still dealing a little with their 'choking' issue, but theyre still a whole level above the current dig lineup.

also, bankroll has been reset to 200 mbtc (0.2BTC) for betting on fairlay.
currently matched: 52 mbtc
current total: 211.6 mbtc (0.2116 BTC) --> +0.0116 btc

i will be posting similar updates as a means of tracking progress from now on.

http://i.gyazo.com/dba47fd57e56223843748da96b4c875c.png
one bonus pick for now, i think map 2 is lunatik's pick, and seeing how they could take a map off nihilum in the bo2 yesterday, there is a chance for an upset.

gfinity league games are easy money right now with the point spread lines, matchups are really 1 sided. shouldnt take too much thinking to bet on which team at these odds.

Lol @fnatic losing to vox being -3000 for the map

people underrate vox a LOT (i really mean a lot) because the 'straylan scene is really never seen. they put up a great performance at katowice too, and i think people forgot about that for whatever reason. not as if a sane person would be taking a bet a -3000 odds anyways

i agree, i have seen quite a few of Vox matches and they are a pretty good team. I made some good bets today, they generously gave 8.5+ for vox on both maps. looking forward to the rest of their matches.

http://i.gyazo.com/b6dd35155bdbfaf0c6edc9f75ed9b94c.png
picks for today, noble's rob-wiz will not be playing tonight, sub TBA.

all 4 of these lines seem to be a win, ace already up 2-0 in the bo5 series, winning the spread on map 1 with a dominating 16-3 score.

won a nice bit off the underdog bet on VOX, i really dont know why peopl,underrate them this much.
http://i.gyazo.com/a986070e43a3f26b789836f2c8e3f6ea.png

underdog bet for you guys
odds arent as great but i still expect the spreads to both win.
http://i.gyazo.com/64c4a31ac4c1db21c07149239aca98a4.png

quick pick:
http://i.gyazo.com/e348b32a9e1247d641fb9de744a86591.png

going back to nitrogensports, fairlay is a headache to use atm.

couldn't access nitrogen for some reason, so game 1 has already started
http://i.gyazo.com/ac1a558c5288795dafc1d68f0ab28c19.png

http://i.gyazo.com/a85e3045df2d1f2c30f8eae99d4ce0f4.png

quick pick, hit some good spreads on VP v immunity and hit everything for navi v VP, big jump in units.
http://i.gyazo.com/1f72da961b3f95a3a79889b2ee1227e8.png

one for more for today
http://i.gyazo.com/088b65d1ba27541479a92561ae669463.png
fnatic crushing vp, hitting all the lines

i will be taking  a short 1-2 week hiatus on betting to focus on some RL stuff for a bit.

aaaand im back (a bit)
http://i.gyazo.com/b18cb8e631432f868d7a66f2bc55b7bf.png

all 4 of these lines are a win judging from the scored posted on HLTV. games were delayed by quite a bit today with the big patch that got released, so couldnt watch them.
+whateverthefuck units and btc that adds up to

picks for today, still debating on fnatic v VP; both tier one teams, but fnatic is still better, but they will be playing without olof, +schnieder instead. he has been on the team in the past, so they may still play extremely well, but you never know.
http://i.gyazo.com/e5e28e7c4e94bb8f4e8f6203c3884550.png

seems map 1 is mirage, most likely vp will take map 1.

seems i was right, currently 7-3 vp winning on t side, at this rate VP will have a decent chance to win the series.

edit im stupid and started watching late, fnatic 2-0. mirage was map 2 but fnatic still took it 16-12
man i look stupid

http://i.gyazo.com/14884fea92ca33070d7e54b52ec0f141.png

expecting a stomp out of keyD stars, theyre easily a top NA team.

http://i.gyazo.com/5d77529b661f70f723f4e7541214763d.png

bonus pick for today, bo1 de_cache.

http://i.gyazo.com/910f2f417378082c7fac1d09d8224d1a.png

bonus pick for league of legends, not many good csgo games to bet on today

just 1 for today, starts soon
http://i.gyazo.com/0bd0a7a609f0370de6214529c43e49bd.png

Did you bet on liquid? I did too. I hope I win, but I only bet a couple items (if I win I get like 2$ of bonus, on csgolounge)

The thing you quoted pretty clearly shows that he bet on CLG.

Oh I have never seen these diagrams before and didn't know where it said who bet. So the column where it says match:clg, thats who he thinks he is going to win I assume?

If you look at Match: CLG (-2.5) that's the pick he's making. The rest of the betslip is just indicating which match it is (can be Bo3 or Bo5 IIRC), the odds and the bet value.

the match is on a point spread favoring CLG. the line was lost anyways, clg won map 1 and liquid won map 2.

http://i.gyazo.com/f7049bf97917c349cd3b043c19da008f.png

just a few LCS picks for today

getting a bit more into league again, part of a parlay ill be putting in.
http://i.gyazo.com/175cba07115a8395812f967a32f8d4d2.png

http://i.gyazo.com/3655a7f0092cae637a654abb4156d098.png

going to try out this parlay, I think it has a fair chance of hitting, not saying it will, but its got a chance.

looks like the parlay was lost with VP taking the match off TSM, the virtus plow making a big showing. but, i did make up for the loss and made a bit with this line to cover it, not so bad
http://i.gyazo.com/69cf31daa6fba55e9b96a1284e5344e2.png

general tip for everyone: flipside is pretty free on ESL league at the least, s1mple still banned.

LCS parlay that I think should hit:
http://i.gyazo.com/89c1b80643f15aa9476c7d29e18f1797.png

underdog LCS pick; roccat hada  strong showing vs fnatic and ate reported to do well in scrims, theres a chance of an upset.
http://i.gyazo.com/c7f25b2260cd50d77507ce6eb1bf1610.png

hit all the EU LCS lines so far, just waiting on the NA games tomorrow.


game was really close, roccat almost took the game vs UOL but they made a few mistakes lategame.

a small csgo parlay
http://i.gyazo.com/9da8d2f12a7202ddefa3776ecf3ad45c.png

Added these lines to one of my degen yolo parlays.


How are you doing lately in terms of unit's gain?

i stopped betting for a week at some point, and ive been moving around coins everywhere for purchases and i didnt keep track of bankroll, but id say im about +30-35 units (~.12 ish) since the start.

But im also not betting as much as I did before, RL stuff ya know

judging by how this game is going right now, this parlay might as well be a win.
http://i.gyazo.com/04d24fe4c5497c013c8eeda9b62790e9.png

That early game dive was a disaster for enemy, almost a 4k gold lead not even 10 minutes into the game.

edit; that small csgo paylay I posted before is also a win, TSM 2-0's HR.

For a -676 ML line, they sure did struggle to close out a series @map2. Was it a tripple tiebreak if i am not mistaken?

I believe map 2 was HR's pick, hence the remarkably better performance. I didn't watch map 2 trusting TSM to win after that dominating show on mirage, was watchin the Liquid V NME game instead
http://www.hltv.org/match/2296285-tsm-hellraisers-fragbite-masters-season-4-finals

on another note, C9 is choking against Gravity right now, 10k gold down in 30 minutes. I dont see them coming back from this one

http://i.gyazo.com/d36ad2847ec216e0e363a80194d9e9c5.png

TSM (Bjergsen) looks strong, but I think with the odds a bet on CLG is worth.

I had Keyd Stars ML in some random parlay for like -800 and they've lost lol. I might have a biased view but it looks like in CsGo big dogs make an upset pretty damn often.

The only thing I think the casters are right about in this game is that "anything can happen," and its fairly accurate; bad map picks, just missing the timing by a tenth of a second can cost even the clear overdogs an entire match. Great examples I see often: scoping out from the AWP at the worst possible moment and costing the round; just having your back turned at the wrong moment, having a grenade out at the exact wrong moment, etc. And with the economy system in CSGO plays a large part, small mistakes on key rounds can actually end up cost 2 or even 3 rounds depending on the money. I didnt watch the game but my guess is that KeyD were either not on form or small things like this added up and cost them the game. I think something similar happened with Titan v LDLC a long time ago, back when Titan were considered one of the best in the world with a good portion of the ex LDLC, now nV lineup. -1 unit for me, but it happens, LCS is pretty free though, upsets are rare.

PS, whats your thoughts on Rain vs Maru?

Its tough, i was thinking about firing Rain ML @2.8 or Rain +1,5 at even money (just because of the odds), but decided not too. On the one hand, he looks to be in the pretty damn good shape, destroying both Innovation and Bbyong.

However, those 2 are not at the same level as Maru when it comes to TvP. Maru's TvP is hands down the best in the world right now, with Dream coming close 2nd.

Stylistically, i think its a good match for Maru. Rain is a defensive toss, with a very few all-in/timing builds in his arsenal (mostly blink stalkers). I expect him just trying to defend his 3 bases on most maps and Maru just dropping/multitasking him to death. Rain have shown a weakness to this kind of drop/multiprong attacks style against Fantasy, and Maru is like Fantasy times 10.

Maru should be super comfortable against Rain, unlike vs someone tricky and annoying like Parting. So i think the most likely outcome is Maru 3-1

The only reason why i did pass on taking that line is Maru's potential wrists problems.

thanks, trying out this parlay with that in mind.
http://i.gyazo.com/d49523ffcc391c5609c1f00fcde2384b.png

unfortunately, Liquid decided to give away Ryze and therefore the game to Gravity, parlay was going good with the Impulse win but oh well.
http://i.gyazo.com/761054b8d67e62c13fbfd16096ea03e4.png

on a semi related note, CLG vs TSM is starting soon, going to be a great game no matter who wins.

I really love Counter Strike : Global Offensive as a game , could you please recommend a good website for gambling or betting ? I already know CSGOLounge even If I never tested it because I didn't really understand hwo it works .
Also could you tell me which website should I choose on the three others you posted ? I have no experience and I wanna choose one and one only ? which one you recommend highly . https://nitrogensports.eu/ looks good (looking at the design I'd say it's professional) .

I honestly got tired of csgolounge a while ago, and nitrogensports is alright for betting, the only negative thing i would have to say about them is the time it takes for some wagers to be graded and their blackjack is terrible.

CS:GO parlay-
http://i.gyazo.com/ec68baa70e20f081bc660aa66e4247b8.png

80% sure this parlay will hit

Quite ballsy to be so confident in any parlay that includes VirtusThrow :-D

I also didnt follow a scene for quite a while, but i remember Titan being actually a very decent team. Is this no longer the case?

Titan is almost entirely dependant on kenny and apex to perform now; if that game wasnt in the mix id say 95% it would hit, if we were talking about kenny from 6-7 months ago virtus wouldnt have a chance if the map wasnt cache or mirage, but Kenny has really gotten rusty, but he still shows his insane moments. but its cs who knows what'll happen

that match was gross, i had the same bet for vp map 1 it was on the final leg of a big parlay. they were even up 8-7 Half time as terrorist i believe. Anything can happen in these cs go matches ??? ::) ;D :'(

yup, csgo is becoming harder and harder to predict, I might just bet on LCS more until the next big major or something.

A lot of very close games lately. Even that Navi line in the parlay ended up being 16-13.

I think CsGo is the most specific and hard e-sport to bet on, the variance looks huge.

On the other hand, i think the value lays @underdogs, and more likely, in the spreads

great observation magic, and for the most part thats true. I dont remember where but someone decided to bet 1 unit on every bo1 match on the underdog, and they ended up coming out ahead, it was an interesting experiment.

this is a pretty daft parlay, i fully expect this to lose.
http://i.gyazo.com/fc4b67dfc6d2698f58dfa477ff58b10a.png

another parlay, relatively safe
http://i.gyazo.com/cf89f0e01865838045f07a0cdcd5a558.png

good looking slip. Dignitas could easily show up on this one though. that would be my only worry for this parlay. good luck to you buddy.

I was thinking the same thing, but at the same time, I really wanted that bet in there to give a nice boost to the parlay odds.

I am not a fan of adding any of these -2000 or so lines to the parlay. I call them "parlay killers" for a reason. Especially in CsGO, where it seems that -1000 and -2000 favs lose way more often than ones in Dota/Starcraft.

A couple of months ago i used to add a lot of these "lock" lines to the parlays, from CsGo, from tennis, from other sports. And its just not worth it, they fail too often and dont bring that much value.

yea magic is right on this one, i myself steer clear of these bets. to me the risk greatly outweighs the reward. Although i think penta have 0% chance of winning, i still wouldn't want it in my parlay. -500 is about the worst odds i will take. just me though :)

Btw, have you tried using this new site bet-bitcoin.com? i have and I'm really liking it so far but it would be nice to hear from other esports bettors their experience with this site. since i got burned with btcbook I'm a little weary about jumping onto another brand new sports book.

thanks for the tip, I honestly just picked money lines that I thought were the safest, as for bet-bitcoin I havent tried it yet, no real reason for me to switch for whatever reason (odds/more lines) until I start doing this with a significantly larger bankroll.

bet-bitcoin = scam book.

LCS tip: slooshi (team8) will be taking a leave of absence for family reasons, betting against them would be a good idea for upcoming games, excluding the ones this weekend.

havent posted picks in a while, so heres a few
http://i.gyazo.com/f128089c2ba73be5ca963e651cab8228.png

My pick, similar to yours but slightly different
http://i.gyazo.com/7a1630e7fe43a22b79d9de42ac45b9a8.png

just a tad different, titan is near unpredictable these days.
i hope kenny can return to his prime, looks like the awp changes really affected him.

i believe.
http://i.gyazo.com/7eee5c63bca78c194b0187eb9d8c7fd6.png