Dec 31 to Jan 12 Diff thread picks closed.

[radiumsoup]

Phil, have you determined if there is a correlation with the weather and the hash rate/solved blocks, or is it still speculation?

Sun went down and hash went up.  so I have to think part of the shifts are due to heat issues with the bifury plant

if that's true, they won't survive the spring at all, let alone summer...only 4 things really matter at a datacenter, and that's power, cooling, security, and connectivity. It would be pretty bad (for them) if they screwed up such a fundamental aspect of the buildout.

[philipma1957]

+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%  = zebedee
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392083
Total BTC   15.052M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   108825370073 in 1037 blks   >>>> (+4.75%)
 
Network total   882568.294 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.12 / 506 s


So far under 5%

[dukeneptun]

+8.0% = dukeneptun

Trying my luck, even though I suck at guessing Bitcoin price and other Bitcoin related predictions.

[philipma1957]

+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392083
Total BTC   15.052M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   108825370073 in 1037 blks   >>>> (+4.75%)
 
Network total   882568.294 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.12 / 506 s


So far under 5%

[adaseb]

Yes we are under -2.9% for yesterday. Looks like its highly unlikely we will see a double digit difficulty increase with only 7 days left.

[flikflak]

Some data relating to bitfurys heat issues (time is UTC not local)

Date                Blocks mined       Temps °F hi/lo

Jan. 03                  20               unknown
Jan. 04                  33               33.3/-20.4
Jan. 05                  23                  37/31
Jan. 06                  13                 49/33

This is not enough data yet, but there seems to be a correlation.

[jakals]

+%5.1 = jakals.

this is my prediction.waiting the result

[adaseb]

Its nice to see it take over 2 hours to solve 6 blocks.

[HerbPean]

+7.9%  = HerbPean

Thanks

[notlist3d]

+8.3 = Notlist3d

Thanks

[philipma1957]

+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392083
Total BTC   15.052M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   109226236186      in 1037 blks   >>>> (+5,14%)
 
Network total   921395.481 Thash/s
Blocks/hour       7.43 / 484 s

So far under 5.25%



Now it is going to be pretty warm in Tbilisi, Georgia

The   sun will rise  soon.

  Temps are 39.4 f  and blocks should slow  over the next 9-10 hours.  lets see what happens

[kilo17]

+5.7

If it isn't to late 

[RichBC]

Wow this forecasting is hard... Went to bed in the UK with 1 3/4 Hours to go on the Day. If the Blocks had come in at 10 Min Intervals that would have made a 148 Block +2.7% Day.

But.. it's as if someone threw a switch, only 3 Blocks were found in the last 1 3/4 Hours giving a 142 Block -2.13% Day. Just shows the 1 Day is a very short time in Luck / Variance terms.


Rich

[gangnam2016]

+9% = gangnam2016

[needmoney]

+8.4% = needmoney

Please

[d57heinz]

Wow this forecasting is hard... Went to bed in the UK with 1 3/4 Hours to go on the Day. If the Blocks had come in at 10 Min Intervals that would have made a 148 Block +2.7% Day.

But.. it's as if someone threw a switch, only 3 Blocks were found in the last 1 3/4 Hours giving a 142 Block -2.13% Day. Just shows the 1 Day is a very short time in Luck / Variance terms.


Rich

well that method i used to predict diff worked really well seemingly up until i exposed what i was doing here and let them in on how i was watching them play with our money.  Its no doubt a huge farm turning on and off.. 600 peta swings over a days time isnt variance completely. its a huge farm coming on coupled with a streak of luck from the large pools.. Makes it look larger than it really is.. But i still think we have time to hit 1 exahash by months end. Once the network levels off for a month or so check out the swings in variance on this chart.. they are usually less than 10 % swings. you can see it clearly when  it settled down a couple days ago..  went up and down no more than 50 ph between 1-1-2016 and 1-3-2016  then you can see the switch was thrown around the 4th and back to craziness

[alh]

OK, I aam in.....

+7.4% = alh

Personally I don't think the wild swings are for nefarious purposes, but just digesting all the new hash being turned by Bitmain (sales & internal), BitFury (internal), and Avalon (?).

[VirosaGITS]

OK, I aam in.....

+7.4% = alh

Personally I don't think the wild swings are for nefarious purposes, but just digesting all the new hash being turned by Bitmain (sales & internal), BitFury (internal), and Avalon (?).

Phil's theory that its the Russian's plant overheating is a pretty good one. Either way, it doesnt do much nefariousness. Overall it just mean the diff will raise slower.

[Tmdz]

+7.2=Tmdz

[philipma1957]

+4.4%   = philipma1957
+4.5%   = lolxxxx
+4.7%   = radiumsoup
+5.0%   = adaseb
+5.1%   = jakals
+5.5%   = Quickseller
+5.7%   = Kilo17
+6.5%   = Amph
+6.6%   = indiemax
+6.9%   = torepia
+7.1%   = alh >>>>>>>>>>>>   not your first pick of 7.4 that was taken
+7.2%   =Tmdz
+7.3%   = ingiltere
+7.4%   = flikflak
+7.5%   = Mikestang
+7.6%   = ailikun
+7.7 %  = Valkir
+7.8%   = zebedee
+7.9%   = HerbPean
+8.0%   = dukeneptun
+8.1%   = edonkey
+8.2%   = tennozer
+8.3%   = Notlist3d
+8.4%   = needmoney
+8.5%   = vapourminer
+8.9%   =  blindminer
+9.0%   = gangnam2016
+9.5%   =  gkv9
+10.2% = Chris_Sabian
+10.4% =  VirosaGITS
+10.8% = d57heinz


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   392182
Total BTC   15.055M
 
Difficulty   103880340815
Estimated   108263969307 in 938 blks
 
Network total   656414.349 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.30 / 680 s