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The season for awarding the best movies, directors, actors and actresses are beginning and the most valuable and most famous of all of these awards is the Oscar awards.

The early odds have started to be offered by the oddsmakers, however, the announcement for which movies and people will be included in the different categories for nominations will be on January 24, 2023. The night of the awarding will be on March 12, 2023.

I will presently list only the top 5 from each category because the list is very long before the nominations announcement.

Best Picture

The Fabelmans 1.83
Everything Everywhere All At Once 2.5
The Banshees of Inisherin 5.00
Avatar: The Way of Water  8.5
Babylon 10.00

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/129539367-academy-awards-2023-best-picture-winner

Best Director

Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans 1.30
James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water 7.00
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everywhere Everything All at Once 8.00
Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin 8.50
Sarah Polley - Women Talking 10.00

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/142230696-academy-awards-2023-best-director-winner

Best Actor

Brendan Fraser - The Whale 1.50
Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin 3.74
Austin Butler - Elvis 6.0
Bill Nighy - Living 11.00
Hugh Jackman - The Son 13.00

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/131673725-academy-awards-2023-best-actor-winner

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett - TAR 1.83
Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once 3.50
Danielle Deadwyler - Till 5.00
Michelle Williams - The Fablemans 8.00
Margot Robbie - Babylon 10.00

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/131673726-academy-awards-2023-best-actress-winner

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once Wins - 1.36
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin Wins - 3.24
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans Wins - 4.50
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking Wins - 7.00
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Wins - 10

Source https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/154787178-academy-awards-2023-best-supporting-actor-winner


Best Supporting Actress

Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin Wins - 2.50
Jessie Buckley - Women Talking Wins - 2.62
Claire Foy - Women Talking Wins - 5.50
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once Wins - 6?00
Hong Chau - The Whale Wins - 7.50

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/154787179-academy-awards-2023-best-supporting-actress-winner

Best Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once Wins - 1.36
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin Wins - 3.24
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans Wins - 4.50
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking Wins - 7.00
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Wins - 10.00

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/154787178-academy-awards-2023-best-supporting-actor-winner



Brendan Fraser is the favorite over everyone for best actor? I am shocked hehehe.

In any case, I will share the latest news updates if I see them.

In my opinion, even the preliminary bets on the presented favorites have quite decent odds, of course, they will be adjusted by the beginning of the Oscar ceremony, but the number of nominees is very large and it seems very difficult to determine the winner here just by watching from the side.

It is difficult to place bet on the best film, when we don't have the opportunity to watch it yet. The Fabelmans will be releasing next week. I have heard a lot of good reviews about this film, but again, won't trust them unless I get an opportunity to watch it. Second in the list is Babylon, which will be released next month. Big budget movie starring Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie. Everything Everywhere All at Once was released a few months back, but I am yet to watch this movie. It is tricky and onerous to place a bet, solely relying on third party reviews.

And we didn't see him this good in his previous films. It's a really painful performance and for someone watching it is very touching. His daughter adds the emotion when Charlie reconciles.  but I think the factor that made the whale good to watch is that people relate to the movie. You can see a lot of people must have seen themselves struggling with a body like Charlie's.

Brendan may actually win.

Surprised that there betting games for things as such 'coz I'm not aware except for peer to peer betting alone. Well, I've hear alike betting from my friends who are into hollywood artists but that is limited to our circle alone.
 This also my concern. Candidates or nominees would be a large pool, also, are criteria given to the public or atleast for the gamblers? form them to be able to take a hint on who's having greater advantage. Quite interesting, I think I'd stick with sportsbetting because it is where I'm goid at and also, celeberities, movies, and such are not thing.

When talking about the best actor, I just remembered the best actor in 2022, will smith slapping Chris rock at that event. is he in the nomination? Because when I look at him in the trailer for his new movie, Emancipation he looks good and totally plays peter, a slave who almost died because of being whipped and escaping from his life. From what I know, Will Smith being banned for 10 years, but is there no forgiveness? Maybe better to voter watch his new movie before making a decision. I'm sure they will change it.

This is for "The Whale" movie, right?
I haven't watched it yet so I will try later and if ever it goes well then the favorites may be correct. :D
Adam Sandler should be a good contender in this section too. He did great in the movie "The Hustle" combining drama and comedy.
But I don't see him yet in the frontrunners of the Best Actor category.

I am assuming "The Fabelmans" will probably win it as it was the story of young Spielberg. Then, of course, he will also win the Best Director category.

The question is how can they say it's good when the film isn't released yet? Are they judging it easily based on the trailer? But there is a saying that don't judge the book by its cover. I've seen many good trailers but when I watch the movie or play the game in full, I got disappointed.

If you are interested to bet on these events then you better allocate some time of watching the movie so that you can easily decide if what titles will you bet on. Also, a big budget movie doesn't always mean that it was a great movie but sometimes a small budget movie can be better than them so we shouldn't only focus on it as a criteria for judging the film.

The odds will be adjusted by a few considerations by the odds makers. I have learned from doing this every year that those adjustments come when the list of nominations for all the categories are announced, after the date when the academy of motion pictures and sciences vote, the Golden Globe awards, the Actor's Guild awards and the Director's Guild awards.

I will create and share a list and include the dates then we will observe what changes in the odds occur.

I was pointing out the fact that common people like me are yet to watch these movies. But the reviewers have already watched them, as these films have been shown in various film festivals around the world. But the big question here is whether we want to trust these reviewers or not, without actually watching the entire movie. Normally I don't make a bet, if I don't have sufficient information. 95% of the time, I make bets on sports events. Elections and others events such as Oscars are second priority.

@Sithara007. I have not watched much of those movies also hehehe. This is very strange for me because the pandemic is over.

In any case, for bettors these are the important dates that might change the odds.

Golden Globe Awards - January 10, 2023
Oscars nominations announcement - January 24, 2023
Director's Guild Awards - February 18,  2023
Actor's Guild Awards - February 25, 2023
Oscars final voting - March 2, 2023 - March 7, 2023

The Oscar awards for 2022 witnessed Coda with the shocking win of the best picture category. It was very much unexpected. I reckon if we followed the important dates in 2022's Oscar awards thread, we might have found the changes in odds and make a more educated prediction hehehe.

It's very strange how in this Oscar they manage to choose the best actors, most of the time actors that I think are better don't even appear in the Oscars, it's very strange. as for Brendan Fraser, it is definitely a big exaggeration that he is at odds of @1.83 while in my opinion Hugh Jackman is better than him but Hugh Jackman is at odds of @ 9.00, this is something quite exaggerated, it seems that he is a bad actor, i don't understand how these oddsmakers are analyzing actors

Cate Blanchett is a good actress and the oddsmakers are giving her as the favorite, but I prefer Margot Robbie, she is a good actress, in her Suicide Squad movies it was a character that made me laugh, she played the character well in my opinion

I think the idea of Oscars is something that is getting a bit of attention these days, and that’s the part that I am most interested in. There are superhero movies from Disney that I love so much, and nowadays the idea of "Oscar movie" is getting more mainstream as well, getting a lot more big name people too. Back in the day Oscar was something like this, but somewhere in the middle Oscars started to mean "boring, look at the drying wall for 30 minutes, cut your wrists out of boredom" movie, from like 2000 to 2020 or so it was like that.

But, quite recently we started to see some big names, and it’s proven this year with Spielbergs "sort of biography" type of his own movie, and also brad pitt margot robbie movie babylon, all of which is a big Hollywood movies and all deserve to have an Oscar one way or another.

You are right, there are many films that are very beunas, auunque to be honest there are many of the super heroes that I do not like at all, although I am not against many things, I do not like that they show so many freedoms to children, because I consider that their formation must first be given and forge a person, and when his personality is defined that for me it is at age 18 (for some, because there are some who do not mature) can affect them in their formation, then I as a father I am Very delicate as for the children's connide is shown, maybe I am very jealous, but I really do not agree, so far the only movie that I found very good is that of Top Gun 2, I have not had much Oporrtunida To watch films in its entirety, another movie that has told me that I liked Batman.

Kids easily pick up ideas that are actually bad for them and not all parents can guide all the time on what the kids are watching. You can only notice it when the kid does something and you realize you did not teach them about it.

I find it hard to find time to watch films these days as well even when I'm very interested in films and the best director. Nowadays, I may just decide to watch the movie to find out why it won an oscar. Or when someone slaps a host again.

The oddsmakers do not list the odds because of who we think are the best actors or actresses are. They list it based on the reviews behind each performances, speculations on who might be favored by voters of different awards organizations and it might also be because the oddsmakers know the politics behind the movie industry. Much of the odds made by them are adjusted when new information begins to circulate, however.

Actually, as far as I am concerned the Oscar Awards had been losing relevance and public in a consistent way for a while now. It seems people are not longer as interested as they once were. The only reason the last Awards had so much relevance and spotlight was because Will Smith lost his cool and decided to slap Chris Rock in a shameless way.

I would not be surprised the people behind the planning of the Oscars 2023 (aware of this) planned to turn the event into another scandal for the sake of increasing the ratings. If happens, the Oscars will slowly devolve into a circus as years pass ::)

@couch potatoes. I have updated the odds. It appears that the argument on Brendan Fraser as the best actor for his acting role in the movie The Whale has become stronger hehe. I am presently very curious now on this. There were articles saying that he went binge eating for this role to reach more than 300 pounds.

https://i.ibb.co/WBfm9KJ/8451-A7-E9-9-BA0-4-AE4-B9-C9-CABBB3-E4-A554.jpg

There were some changes in the top 5 for best picture, very big changes for top 5 of best actress and no changes for best director.

Also, this article about Steven Spielberg was published by Gold Derby. They might be brainwashing us that Spielberg is certain to win best director hehehehe.

Revisiting Steven Spielberg’s 8 Best Director Oscar races, from ‘Close Encounters’ to ‘West Side Story’


Source https://www.goldderby.com/article/2022/steven-spielberg-best-director-oscar-races/

Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) has yet to be released on december 16th. It was recently claimed that Avatar TWOW is the most expensive film in history with a whopping $300+ million dollar budget. Given that it will likely have a strong climate change and environmental message. The theme of it could align with current events in a way that will cause annual events like the oscars to throw awards at James Cameron and Avatar. The only thing Avatar TWOW is missing is Greta Thunberg and Al Gore cameo appearances.

Guillermo Del Toro's Cabinet of Curiosities mini series was probably the best film content I saw produced in 2022.

Everything else has unfortunately fallen short of expectations.

Well, if you're right, sometimes there are things that children can see at a certain moment and we can't have enough speed to capture them, in fact, in my case I have to be very aware of my son, well With his mother he began to watch things from horror movies and that caused him terrible damage, because he has to sleep accompanied, of course he did that while I was not there, because we are no longer with my child's mother, currently I have another wife and a baby, and to remove that fear from my 7-year-old son is very difficult, it has cost me a lot, so sometimes because of someone's ignorance the children suffer.

Agreed and because much of these awards shows are used for political messages which climate change has become very much inserted by politicians into their own political agendas, it would not be very shocking if Avatar: Way of Water would receive more than 5 nominations in the Golden Globe and the Oscar Awards.

Avatar has made the top 5 for best picture in some of the sportsbooks, however, there are others that have not updated and have it listed on very big odds. Best picture for Avatar and best director for James Cameron hehehe.

The Golden Globe will announce their nominees on December 12. I reckon if you speculate that Avatar and James Cameron would be nominated for best picture and best director, place your Oscar bets for them before December 12 hehe.



The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announced on Tuesday that the nominees for the 80th annual Golden Globe Awards will be revealed on Monday, Dec. 12. Lopez vs Lopez stars George Lopez and his daughter, Mayan, will be on hand to unveil each of the five nominees for the awards' 27 different categories live on NBC starting at 5:35 a.m. PT/8:35 a.m. ET.

Source https://www.etonline.com/2023-golden-globe-nominees-to-be-announced-live-by-george-and-mayan-lopez-195531

Considering very very few nations are actually caring about climate change, and very few governments has done anything substantial about it, I am pretty sure that nobody cares about it in reality. It is a true problem, and wouldn't hurt anyone to solve it neither and yet for some reason nobody cares, so political agenda is not on that. Something like "look at how people mistreated blacks back in the day.. oh and we still do to native Americans but lets not talk about that" type of movie could get a lot of attention.

In 2022, we still see Americans not even provide clean water to natives, and yet a movie in 60's on how blacks were mistreated could get an award, THAT is a political agenda for sure. For this one though, Fabelmans do have a big chance, it's just movie industry in a shell.

@dezoel. I agree that much of the people in the world do not care about climate change, however, we are not talking about the world. We are talking about the Oscar Awards and the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and science who are followers of the idea of wokism, LGBTQ and climate change hehehe.

Also, betting on Avatar: Way of Water's opening box office performance is being offered in Coinplay. I am quite certain it will be over $174.5 million in America's opening box office.



Avatar: The Way of Water. Domestic Box Office: Opening Weekend (16th - 18th December 2022) - Over 174.5 Million - Yes 1.57

Avatar: The Way of Water. Domestic Box Office: Opening Weekend (16th - 18th December 2022) - Under 174.5 Million - Yes 2.25

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/1033765-special-bets-cinema/142976657-avatar-the-way-of-water-opening-weekend-box-office


The first reactions on the movie have been very positive.



More than a decade has passed since James Cameron blew away audiences with Avatar, and now the first sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, appears to be doing the same thing. Critics have seen the follow-up, which returns to the world of Pandora with even more ambition than the original, and it appears to be another technical and visual marvel. Does it also improve upon the story, characters, and 3D action? Initial reactions to the movie seem to indicate the movie does all of the above and, like the original, is another essential theatrical viewing experience.

Source https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/avatar-the-way-of-water-first-reactions-we-never-should-have-doubted-james-cameron/

The favourite should be the one to be awarded.  Steven Spielberg is one of the best movie directors ever and the Fabelmans looks like a great movie. My bet goes to the Fabelman for best movie.

I hadn't paid attention that in the best actor list there was still Nicolas Cage with the movie Butcher's Crossing, honestly lately Nicolas Cage has been making some movie that, to a certain extent, are a real heartbreak, people don't even know if they're going to laugh with the movie or if you are going to cry with the movie or if you are irritated with the movie and or if you are shocked by the movie, I have been particularly irritated every time he releases a movie and I watch his movie and then I get irritated, It's something very irritating about his movies lately, I don't know if he has any chance of winning the Oscar, an actor on this list that I consider an incredible guy and Brad Pitt, he's phenomenal

I understand that the first movie was seen by a lot of people, and they did a reopening again to pass Avengers which was just a trick nothing more, it’s obvious that Marvel could have taken it if they wanted to.

However, that was then, and this is now, the movie itself wasn't as big, it was a big selling point for 3D movies, and ever since then we started to have 3d even on our television, there are literally 3d TV's which you can watch with those glasses, which means times changed a lot. I feel like Avatar will not pass 2 billion mark, and the only reason why it will pass 1 billion mark is the whole marketing on the first one and how big it was, nostalgic reason, nothing more.

We cannot be quite certain if this. I reckon we should wait for the winners of the Golden Globe Awards and the Directors' guild awards and assess before we place our bets on best picture hehe. Yes I understand the conspiracy where much of Hollywood is being controlled by people of Jewish descent and Steven Spielberg is from a Jewish family hehe. However, this might also occur very much similar to last year when Power of the Dog was favorite with odds of 1.49 when it was listed, however, Coda won with odds of 17.00.

We cannot be quite certain where the disposition of the voters might be during the voting process. Will it be for the inspiration of a director, for climate change, for empowerment of women or will it only be voting for a nice movie?

Oscar award was the good impression for the younger people to the field. The sports had the World Cup for the impression, but the movie doesn’t had any tournaments. But it had the awards to prove the people for the encouragement. It also allow the people to get into this field by this award alone. Oscar award was the dream of the most of the experienced old people to the field. Many good directions get the best award from this.So it was essential one to way forward for the award to new people. Most of them are youngsters and they need of encouragement to get into the field and survive into the field for longer period.

People want this one to win because its his come back film but its not the best film nor his best performance so I dont think on these short odds its a good choice unless people really decide they think its better then all other choices, I do not.


I'd bet on it being successful but the opening weekend who knows because thats a very large amount imo.   Does it only include cinemas and how many screens will it open would be the first thing to check on.

I've seen most of the films in there, and if "Everywhere Everything All at Once" doesn't win in some some category i really think that whole thing is fixed. It's the most absurd 4th wall breaking meta in every way. I don't think i've ever seen anything that even comes close to it. And i am including european obscure art flicks into it. It just works and doesn't ask permission if it should to do so.

I am too... because despite the long career he has already built in Hollywood, he has never been nominated for an Oscar for any of his work done so far. But he was well acclaimed by the public at the Venice Film Festival, which takes place today, so I believe he should be well nominated and who knows, maybe even take the statuette in 2023, we'll see!

I'm also betting big on Colin Farrell's feature film, he received the longest applause of the event so far: there were 13 uninterrupted minutes of applause, if I were there my hands would be red :P

Changing gender a bit, I also believe that Cate Blanchett is the main bet for the 2023 Oscar. She is already a veteran in this area and has already been nominated seven times, winning on two of those occasions. I believe it won't be a surprise to anyone if she manages to take the third statuette of her career, I'm betting big on that.

It could be because Oscar or any other event is where the political agenda is carried out and for the message to be sent across the globe, Oscar will make AVATAR 2 win.

I doubt Farell will have a close vote with Fraser. The movie is hilarious but also has a dark comedy theme. One of Farell's best performance, he'll be nominated it's just unfortunate that he is competing with the most relatable movie for the population today which is the Whale.

Agreed! This might be speculation based on his performance and an LGBTQ storyline hehe. The movie is about a husband, played by Brendan Fraser, who left his family to go with another man and when the boyfriend of the Brendan Fraser's character died he became very depressed and very fat.

I reckon for best actor and best actress we should wait for the winners of the Screen Actors Guild awards and assess. This will be on February 25.

Isn't almost 3 months before nominees being announced a little bit too early to start this thread?

Anyway, from the movies I've seen so far I would say that Cate Blanchett winning an Oscar for her role in Tar is a sure bet, she was great. 1.8 is an excellent odd that will surely go down significantly as we come close to the nomination announcement. I see that Michelle Yeoh is 2nd favorite at the moment for a Best Actress award, while I couldn't finish Everything Everywhere All At Once, it was just too much for me. Attack on the senses is a best description of that movie.

Honestly I do not know or watched the Whale yet, and considering it hasn't been on screen for that long, I am not sure how you guys watched the whole movie already, it's not available on even torrent websites yet.

Weird to accuse of Brandon Frasier to be taking advantage of anything political when the dude gained so much weight just for a movie, and played with both that much extra weight AND also protesthetics just too look even fatter and got like 10+ minute applause for his acting. I am not saying he will win, all I am saying is that someone else may win, but if he does end up winning then I am sure it will be based on his talents and acting and nothing else.

I am not certain why you tell me this now because I have been creating a thread for the Oscar awards as early as the odds are made available by sportsbooks.


You might have misunderstood. No one is accusing Brendan Fraser because he did not do a crime hehehehehe. He is only an actor in the movie. It is those Hollywood executives with their agendas who can be accused of using the movie industry to manipulate the people and spread their agenda.

Its not too early for this thread because the films that could be put into betting will be released now or they wont qualify.  There is some debate as the quality of the film and its reception generally, some people will always hate a particular film but it can win anyway.  
Fraser is popular man of the moment, just a nomination would be a big come back from the abyss and a nomination is a kind of win; they advertise nominations during film promotions so its a win for both company and actor really.   However I dont actually believe he will win, I remain unconvinced so far but we got time to decide yet.

Of the three I'd expect Cate Blanchett is with the best chance I've been a fan for 25 years or so shes done the legwork for sure & I need to watch Farrell's film.

I agree, it is 12th of march so it is not too far away and it should be known already who would be winning by just simply watching the films. Some of them barely get released right now and that is something I feel like a trick, you have like a circuit, a whole tour where the movie that will win the oscar usually released in a cannes or toronto or whatever and then you end up with something much bigger than that at first, and then just as the year is getting over, you end up with a release, in December or late November so you would win.

I personally feel like anyone who gets released in May rarely has chance to win an Oscar, probably they know it too.

i did watched the fecking movie i don't know why but probably because i saw this thread last week. its tragicomedy just as described. cutting fingers all because his friend still talks to him despite how hard he pushed him away is too extreme. aye the movie had won awards in Ireland already and Farrel won Volpi Cup best actor.

and the movie features the best scenery of the fecking beautiful island. best pictures if not. swear not to fecking watch this kind of film. avatar 2 isn't nominee afaik.

Marvel played a huge role in the movie field, they had a good enough knowledge to make the people attention to his first movie itself. Avengers played a huge role in the price collection and the award winning and box office. They made huge collections and made the history. Cate was opinion for the Oscar for most of the players in the 2023. People around the world support this cate for his unique works. Many people who win the Oscar will become a icon for their country for a decade. Many youngsters will come to their field by the inspiration of those people into the game.

The only thing that interests me about the Oscars is whether public interest in this ceremony will hit a new bottom. As far as I understand, last year the interest was at historically low levels. In fact, I poorly understand the meaning of this prize, since on the one hand it is subjective, and on the other hand it is determined by a cabal, let's say people whose opinion I don't give a damn about.

last time oscar was a pure drama  -- i hope this time they would not do the kind of slapping drama again
among the list of movies I haven't watched even the single one- I am going to watch all of them and will bring forth my suggestions

Brendan Fraser might presently be the most popular choice for best actor, however, after the Golden Globe awards and Screen Actors Guild awards this might change. This is where you should be fast on moving before the odds have changed hehe.

According to this news, Everything, Everywhere All at Once has dethroned the Fablemans as favorite for the best movie. But did sportsbooks change their odds quickly? You will find 4.20 if you know were to go hehehehhe.



This is one universe “Everything Everywhere All at Once” definitely wants to stay in. The genre-bending dramedy has dethroned “The Fabelmans” to take over the top spot in the Best Picture Oscar odds.

Source https://www.goldderby.com/article/2022/everything-everywhere-all-at-once-oscar-predictions-best-picture/

I never thought they gonna make some bet out of the result of this award and the drama was all stage because seriously man, these people are actors and they have been doing these things for years now and they have all the necessary tools to make it looks real. We don't want it to happen again because it's not really worth it you know?

They did it for this year because they might gonna make him the host again and talk about last year's drama to extract a joke out of it again.

Completely crazy, to have that movie as a favorite. I personally disliked it so much that I simply can't bet on it, even if odd is pretty decent (4.20 one). From what I've seen so far, my money will be on The Banshees of Inisherin.


You are very wrong if you think that what happened between Chris Rock and Will Smith was faked. Public physical violence is not something that Academy will joke about, and for what he did Will Smith has been banned from Oscar ceremony for the next 10 years. On top of that, he may have ruined his film career and as he is receiving a lot of hate.

To be honest with you, I cannot argue yet. I have not watched any of the top movies speculated to be nominated in the Oscar awards. However, similar to what I have said before, sportsbooks and oddsmakers list the odds based on what they speculate might win with much of the votes from the academy of motion picture arts and sciences. They also clearly have more information than us. Our task as bettors is to speculate on the changes in odds and take advantage.

In any case, it appears Avatar: Way of water made less in the American box office than what was expected.



The opening weekend box office numbers for Avatar's sequel are in!

Avatar: The Way of Water pulled in $134 million at the domestic box office over the weekend,

Source https://people.com/movies/avatar-the-way-of-water-opening-weekend-box-office/


It was speculated to be over $174.5 million with odds of 1.57.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5419259.msg61409704#msg61409704

It appears that some people are not spending that much this Christmas season. Is this a warning sign that more recession is coming? I reckon if this movie was released during December of 2020, this would make over $200 million in the box office.

I'm sure that the German movie "Nothing new on the Western front" will win for best non-English movie. An antiwar movie winning an Oscar during the war in Ukraine would be a good propaganda move.
Other than that, I couldn't care less about the Oscar awards. They are getting more and more boring and I think that 2022 was a bad year for Hollywood in general(not that the years before 2022 were better). The "superhero/comic book blockbuster" trend is slowly dying and this is the only good thing I can say about Hollywood. I haven't watched any of the nominated actors/actresses.
And nobody asked Cameron to make Avatar 2.

last time they created a big drama so to get more views on the oscar nomination
But I think Oscars are getting more controversial with every passing day.

It is true that people still do go to movies, but after the pandemic there was bound to be some drop, and I doubt it would go back to numbers it reached for a while. Cinema lived a good golden age between 2010 and 2020, but after 2020 there were lockdowns and so forth, and more and more netflix style things became known, disney plus is the most famous one, but even smaller ones like hbo and even to a point amazon prime became more and more used.

That means we are talking about multiple companies giving you a chance to watch things at home, and a lot more things to watch with high quality is now available to you within a click as well. It's harder to convince people to get out of their house and pay a months wort subscription on tickets, and maybe another for pop corn and a soda.

They take into consideration everything; from the awards won on film festivals, nominations for Golden Globe (which were released recently) to the Hollywood rumours. Another thing to keep in mind that film studios are spending millions of dollars lobbying for their movie to get an Oscar nomination so that is a factor as well.


Tbh I don't think that lower Avatar's lower box office number than expected had anything to do with upcoming recession. Personally, I think that Cameron waited a little bit too long for this sequel, 13 years is a very long time and sequels made so many years after the original are rarely successful so I think that even this numbers are pretty good and I do expect it to surpass $1.5 billion in the end.


Well nominations are not out yet so even if you wanted, you couldn't. By the way, not all nominated movies are classic Hollywood mainstream crap, there will always some quality stuff among them.


Considering the fact that Avatar was the highest grossing movie ever, many asked for sequel since he was talking about it even before first Avatar was released. As I said before, the only mistake he did (from the financial POV) is that he waited for so long for the sequel which will again make shit load of money despite that.

Well, you're right about that, I particularly like Marvel movies a lot, but lately they've put a lot of inclusion things into it and that's something I don't like, I respect everything that has to do with inclusion, but It's so much that they highlight it that it's cloying, I had high expectations with the Thor movie, but I didn't like it at all, the movie that I really liked a lot is the one made by Tom Cruise, from Maverick, I don't know if it's nominated , but it is one of the few films that I recommend, it is very good, they follow the same style and it is really nice to see a film of that level.

That is correct - the Maverick was very good.
Tom Cruise showed that he is still the greatest actor of all the times.
But that is correct too. People are losing interests in Oscars too. there is so much excitement around and there is so much other stuff to be thought about.

Kids of these days are more smarter than the kids of our time - they know movies - songs - season and to my surprise they like Korean, Turkish and other languages series - thanks to the subtitle and other language translation that people get a chance to know about these dramas and plays and movies as well

We still have time to speculate about next year's winners, but I predict on beforehand the victory of Steven Spielberg's "The Fabelmans", which has been already awarded in Toronto. About others, it is still too early to comment.

Anyway, I only hope that we don't witness another pathetical situation like the one starring Will Smith last year.

Something inspirational for filmmakers, I realized I took boring photos when I learn how important the horizon is in this movie. Spielberg movies always are getting attention since he is already popular in getting the hearts of his audience but with "The Fabelmans" I doubt. But Spielberg I think wanted to convince the audience of this movie to look closely at directors of films. If I have to vote, McDonagh.

Agreed, part of it might be James Cameron's long wait for the technology to create the sequel. According to some friends who watched it, it was something similar to being in a theme park but the story of the movie itself was not very captivating.

In any case, I watched The Fabelmans, Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere all at Once.

The Fabelmans. It was boring only in the first 15 minutes. This is my favorite of the 3. Good story, funny movie that is based on Steven Spielberg's life before becoming a movie director.

Banshees of Inisherin. Funny dialogue, however, it is dragging and it appears the writer does not know how to end the story.

Everything Everywhere all at Once. It was not very good, I reckon. I am not quite certain why this movie is being pushed as an Oscar favorite for best picture. The sportsbooks do not believe it and they did not adjust the odds that much hehehehe.

The Fabelmans has the best chance. Steven Spielberg is a big name and it will be difficult for the jury members to ignore his film. But the film was a box office disappointment, and despite a budget of close to $40 million it could only gross around $10 million. Now I want to see whether the jury has courage to select a film, that has been rejected by the audience. Fabelmans happens to be the lowest-grossing film ever directed by Steven Spielberg, despite it's generally positive reviews from the critics.

That's not the point of an "oscar movie", there is this genre where you just shoot a movie for awards, the cannes, the toronto, the oscars etc etc all because you want to make sure that you are in convention for those, and rewards for either winning or even being nominated for it is fine.

Additionally, you may think that 40 million was spent straight up and the box office 10 million is the only income, but they already get investors just to invest without any expectations in return, meaning they could turn a profit even before the shooting starts. All in all I am sure this was done intentionally, wasn't a box office or profit in general aimed movie, they wanted to win the oscars and they probably will.

Even in that case, something doesn't seems right. You are saying that Oscar movies doesn't need to be accepted by the general audience. So someone can win Oscar, if his movie pleases the jurors. In this case, the jury opinion is much different from that of the general audience. In such circumstances, Oscars should not be taken as a metric to gauge the quality of a movie. I am yet to see this movie (The Fabelmans), so I don't want to make a judgement at this point. But giving award to a movie that is rejected by the general audience doesn't sound right for me.

Wouldn't be surprised with that, only few people can receive a 5-minute standing ovation in the movie screening. I haven't watched the movie yet but I watched the trailer and I really think he deserve the Oscar I am sure that I will be placing a bet on that one. Thanks for putting link directly to the betting site it would be easier to place bet with that than manually browsing the market.

Assuming that he won the Oscar, wouldn't that be awesome as it's been around 20 years when he do his last movie and I really admire his movie when I was a little bit young.

The thing about movies like the whale is that acting is not just about being able to portray someone, it's about making the people believe that you are that person, and that's the hard part. This dude gained so much weight, and they still had to put so much prosthetics on him to make him look even fatter, and he did convinced everyone that he was having this trouble.

Let's realize for a moment that he was very fit, go back to the mummy and you will see how fit he was, so he had to gain some weight but he was already "not fit" before any of this as well, so he knows a bit about this pain. All of which combined with his acting skills made sure that he actually provided some amazing talent and skill to portray someone. Christian Bale is famous for this as well, losing and gaining weight is not simple, it's morphing your body to the role, it's an amazing dedication and definitely deserves awards.

I don't think that box office success is high on the Academy priority list when choosing winner for the best picture award. Its more about lobbying than anything else tbh, and every once in a while the best movie in selection gets the award.


How can you say the he deserves Oscar based on on a 2 minutes trailer, and without seeing at least few other performances from other actors? I haven't watched the The Whale yet as it hasn't arrived in my country, but from the performances I have seen so far, Colin Farrell has been the best. But in the end it all depends whether odds given are good enough to place the bet (if odds end up being like 1.2-1.3 on Brendan Fraser, I will pass).


While its been that long from his last big success, he made a couple of  movies in recent years, its just that none of them were very good and he didn't have a lead role.

If you conduct a public poll between The Fabelmans and Avatar: The Way of Water, then 99% of the people are going to chose the latter option. But then the opinions of Oscar jury is so different from that of the ordinary people. They won't even consider a film such as Avatar for any of their awards (despite collecting more than $1 billion around the world till now).

The first part (Avatar 1) back in 2009 won the Oscar for Best Visual Effects. Also, it won the Oscars for Best Art Direction (Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg) and Best Cinematography (Mauro Fiore).

This time also, it may win the same award (Oscar for Best Visual Effects), but I will be terribly disappointed if it is the only award this film wins at Oscars.

I think Brendan Fraser is a good pick on this award, because besides the movie, his real life story is being shared intensily on the internet. I didn't go deeper, but I heard he had many difficults in his career and personal life during the last decades, after The Mummy movies. I believe he had or still has depression and fights against it with all his effort. I suppose they will give him the Best Actor Oscar because somehow he portrays the pain he felt in real life on this movie.

The best Visual effect will be for Avatar. Seem very easy for that movie to get such an award. Somehow I feel not very fair since all the effects are computer generated. For me, Avatar 2 has a terrible story that could go up to Avatar 10. They made a new watermen race in that world and a new messiah who could be the girl in Avatar 3.

Oscar Jury has different criteria and of course, those juries know how to scrutinize a film and will look at the film from different angles. And they may prefer the film that features it all for awards that are given more importance like Best Actor, Actress, and Director.

Avatar in all probability will win the Oscar for Best Visual Effects once more. And it is not fair to say that they don't deserve it as the visuals are all computer generated. In that case what prevents the other films from doing the same? I watched Avatar 2 a few days ago in IMAX and I was astounded with the visual effects. It is not just the software, but the skills that go in from the technicians as well. Anyway, I am more interested in the award for best picture. I don't think that it will go to Avatar 2, since the jury is biased against it.

It is so unimportant that I have seen movies not even be on 100+ screenings that got awards, not the best picture maybe but other stuff. The reason? As long as it goes through the whole award shows before the Oscars, and gets good grades, that means it's already "shown" to the world, like you have been to Cannes? That's fine, and you had a legal way of saying it was public? Like maybe 50 screenings on New York and 50 in some other state etc? Like Hollywood maybe? Then you should be fine.

Obviously it's much better if you just go around those and then have like 3000+ places air it, that would be much better, but how much viewed has absolutely zero connection to getting an award.

Yes, it is true that today's children prefer to watch action films and some Korean drama films compared to animated cartoons or the like, they even memorize the names of the actors in these films.
I also wonder why today's children prefer this to playing with friends their own age and even worse when they are watching the film they even forget the time and forget they have to study, it is very different from when I was a child, it was even more it's nice to meet and play together playing silly games.
As for betting on the Oscar award, I am not at all interested.

The sad thing is that most of the world do not watch these movies after the Oscars, and even though box office results do not matter in awarding any movie if they are good, it is also quite obvious that there would be a lot more people watching it AFTER one of them wins it. Like let's assume the fabelmans win it like everyone assumes they would, I guarantee you 100% that it would have a higher box office just a few weeks later, there will be rush to movies to watch it all over again.

The only difference is that it wasn't the box office that give it the award, but it would be award that gives it the box office and that is an inevitable reality without a doubt.

It's true that movies like Avatar have a strong advantage in the visual effects category at awards shows like the Oscars. These movies often rely heavily on computer-generated imagery (CGI) to create their fantastical worlds and characters, which are often impressive and visually stunning. However, it's important to note that creating high-quality visual effects requires a lot of skill and expertise. It's a highly technical and challenging field, and I think all the artists and technicians who work in it deserve recognition for their hard work and talent.

That being said, I think that the Top Gun: Maverick will also have a pretty good chance at taking home an Academy Award for Best Visual Effects. The movie has some really impressive CGI, especially when it comes to the aerial dogfighting scenes. I think it might be a close race between these two for which one wins the category, but my money is on Top Gun: Maverick.

It seems that if this is done continuously and more and more teenagers are following it, I am sure that in the next few years the quality of thinking in adolescents will decrease.
However, a teenager must have a developed mind and look for broad insights instead of being a big fan of one band or film actor.
In fact, it's okay to follow or be a fan, but there must still be limits, only naturally and not making it the most important thing.

That was funny really but at the same time I felt it was very inappropriate as it could ruin the Oscar awarding, and it really did. Hopefully, everything will fall in its right place this time. Well, those movies are quite impressive and interesting. I just have to finish them watching before I can actually cast my vote.

Kids these days have different way of thinking compared to us before. And their interest might have also been shifted like they focus more on drama and horror movies, gone are the days where cartoons and comedy are the kids favorites. However, I haven’t been interested in Oscar’s betting even before, although I love to watch some of these movies but I have not thinking betting on them.

People and kids are not much interested in award these days - they are more interested in games and action movies.
And we were more interested in awards. The trend is changing. I remember we were so interested in awards and we knew who got what award.

The visual effects is not really a category for the movie itself but for the company that did the CGI and that's still good but that doesn't tell much about the movie. No matter how much it was pushed and pushed and pushed on marketing, even didn't let End Game to have the highest box office and put first Avatar on theatres again just for another run in order to get the top box office to make more marketing on the second one, I have to say Avatar will never be a good "movie".

It is about improvement of the cinematic technology and nothing more. For acting, script, and everything else, even producing, its not the best movie at all, its just there to flex on the tech they can use to make a movie and that's it.

In my opinion the most controversial movie goes to OSCAR - one of the movies JOYLAND which is a Pakistani movies and is banned in Pakistan and nominated for Oscar while people of Pakistan are unable to watch it on the big screen here.

The difference is that we are not really interested in things taking 3 hours when it can be in 3 minutes. Sure amazing movies such as Lord of the Rings would have been awesome even this day, because it shows not just clear and understandable story telling, and won 11 oscars if I am not wrong, but also it was packed with amazing scenes back to back.

However, if you want to talk about some feelings for 3 hours, I am sorry but it is harder to get box office. Still not impossible, maybe after they get an Oscar they could get high box office, but do not expect beforehand. Now we have this invention called smart phones that show me more in 30 minutes than I can see in 100 hours of award movies.

So, those tiktoks and reels may not be good for us because we are older, but kids aged 20-22 and under grew up with them, and that is all they knew and that is why they have much much lower attention span, and we had less than our parents, soon we won't even have movies that are 3 hours long but 30 minutes long on digital platforms like netflix and disney.

You said very interesting... smartphones.

In the past people still left the house a lot to go to the movies, their intention was to spend an entire afternoon or evening away from home.
So, it's okay if they have to wait half an hour in line for popcorn, another half hour to get in and three hours of movies, because then they'll still spend a few more hours at some restaurant or bar with friends.

Nowadays people don't go out to see movies in theaters anymore (not like they used to), they prefer to watch 40 minutes of an episode of their favorite series, or 5 minutes of a youtuber's daily story, or 5 seconds of a funny video of a tiktoker.

The way we have fun in front of a screen has changed a lot and movies need to adapt to this new reality.

Yet 20 years from now the generation today who spend 5 minutes on youtube stories will still think their generation is better than the old ones who spend hours just lining up to a popcorn stall and watching a 3-hour movie. Give them an interesting story that affects and relates to thier lives and they will surely watch them and even talk about it in the pub.

A country that is just devastated by war will have a generation that will most likely be interested in watching war movies and talking about wars.

Have you seen Avatar yet? I haven't seen that movie, I can't deny that I started to watch it but I only saw it for 5 minutes and it didn't catch my attention, of course, I'll be honest, I haven't gone to see it in the cinema, I was watching it in a downloaded version and of course I saw it with good quality and it had very poor sound quality, it's something that I didn't think, besides, it was a pirated version that they downloaded and I didn't like it because it brought a lot of advertising, and that advertising was mostly from a rather scam casino, and that It was something that really overwhelmed my patience, I didn't like it at all, so I'd rather see it in the movies, but at this point I think it's no longer in the movies.

I wouldn't say that one generation is better than the other, it's all based on what people want and everyone has their right to want whatever they want. Me and my spouse are from the generation that goes to a cinema and wait in line to buy a popcorn and spend a night basically fully on that movie, whereas if you are at home, even if you spend 3 hours watching something on Netflix, you have more than 3 hours and that means it just won't work for you, won't be enough, you need to do something else as well.

But, that doesn't mean kids who like to watch 5-10 episodes of their favourite show that night is any better or worse, it's just preference and that's fine, that's good, we need all kinds of options available to us.

I believe, most people are not really interested when it comes to betting like this kind of global award.
Though of course, we are interested to see those movies in the list like the Avatar as it grossed billion dollars in the cinemas.
Not many people are into betting as this kind of award is usually dependent on the judges' mood and criteria.
And the public doesn't know about such considerations, we are more on which movies are worth spending money inside the cinema.
Some of us are still interested on who gets what? But to the extent of betting on this, I believe not are keen on doing so.

Movie critics have different tastes actually. What is good to normal viewers is bad to them and vice versa. I am usually intrigued by the winners of the awards before and would watch them. Mostly, I find the winners of Best Picture boring. That is why I would be a bad bettor if I will bet on this kind of betting. I would bet on the picture I enjoyed and that would not win because critics like boring and too much talking stuff.


It already has. That is why we have so many streaming services right now and Oscar also includes movies that are not out in cinemas but only played in stream services. I still enjoy watching movies on the big screen. The experience is just different. I also enjoy watching movies on the big tv screen, at home, and relaxed. It's just about the mood.

The main interest is monetary because even a nomination will secure their next film.  Its not the award by itself per say but the overall ladder up it gives in the wider game, their entire career will be enhanced by this one day they receive this award.  Its hard to do anything wrong after you receive an Oscar, Will Smith smacking someone in the chops doesnt matter as much as he got the award later on; he will be fine because his films win awards so he is set for life and so is everyone on his film set.
  Win an Oscar and you are immortal, be popular in a film 30 years ago and you might still struggle to get a part in an advert when you are old its unfortunate that there are plenty of out of work actors who struggle despite prior success; its not an easy business despite appearances.

I very much agree! However, for people who still love movies and who also like to gamble for entertainment, what is the best form of entertainment if it is not entertainment betting hehehe.

The categories for best supporting actor and best supporting actress have also been created. I am not quite certain why Ke Huy Wuan is the very big favorite. I speculate this will change after the Golden Globe awards and the official announcement for nominations.

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once Wins - 1.36
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin Wins - 3.24
Paul Dano - The Fabelmans Wins - 4.50
Ben Whishaw - Women Talking Wins - 7.00
Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway Wins - 10

Source https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/154787178-academy-awards-2023-best-supporting-actor-winner



Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin Wins - 2.50
Jessie Buckley - Women Talking Wins - 2.62
Claire Foy - Women Talking Wins - 5.50
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once Wins - 6?00
Hong Chau - The Whale Wins - 7.50

Source https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets/154787179-academy-awards-2023-best-supporting-actress-winner


In any case, this is the predictions in Gold Derby. I am also not quite certain why many Gold Derby followers consider Everything Everywhere all at Once a very good movie. I might watch it again hehe. I was not very moved or entertained. I reckon the concept was a something that we have witnessed in other movies already.

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2023-predictions/

I'm currently on vacation and getting caught up on all the latest and greatest movies that have gone on this past year.  Tomorrow I've got a ticket for a $7 entry to Wakanda Forever (the nice lazy boy seats) and plan on going to see Avatar the day after or the following.  Plan on watching The Whale really soon as well.  Certainly will have to put the Spielberg movie on my watch list as well.  Will report back for my picks!

Never thought that the ticket prices here in India would be higher than those in the United States. If I want to watch Avatar: The Way of Water, then I need to spend around $12 to purchase tickets for 3D IMAX. Cheaper options are also available, but those are 2D or 3D without IMAX. Cheapest tickets are available for around $2.50. BTW, this movie has already collected more than $2 billion from all around the world and may end up overtaking Avatar 1 by today. At this point, Avatar 1 has a gross collection of $2,922 million compared to $2,797 million for Avatar 2.

In particular, I know that many are fans of many movies but I have something in mind, some films or the ones that most promise have disappointed me, I don't know if it is because of their content or because of the way they write now, there is no longer something extraordinary As there are some things that can be left out things that are not so flashy.

Science fiction movies are the ones that I like the most, but to be honest, none for me have a level that I say impressed me, in the thread before this I remember that many were criticizing the Matrix movie a lot, but to be honest I thought it was a very interesting movie.

Looking at those odds, I don't understand either. At the moment, it is a bad bad and for me personally at least two actors were better in their roles (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for Banshees a The only thing I can think of why everyone is pushing "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is because it has certain amount of wokeness, and we know that Academia loves these kind of things. Anyway, 1.36 on him is not worth the risk, looks like this year I will go for surprises and not the favorites.


This wouldn't be a bad bet imho, she did a good job there.

The movies right now are already much different than before. I cannot say that today are more interesting and more appealing to watch, as I have bigger interest too way back then. Also, maybe I was just stuck with more jobs right now that I have no time for me time and unable to watch fine movies while relaxing. But, hopefully I can watch these nominated movies and I’ll get back then as to what movie made me totally captured.

Maybe the problem is not in the films, but in the fact that you have become older and there is little to surprise you? At least that's what I think about myself. For example, the last two parts of the Alien fandom are great (I love sci-fi too) but the experience of watching Alien: Covenant will never compare to watching the first part (which looks ridiculous right now) simply because it's not new anymore.

Also, we can’t expect for the different generations to have the same interests and preferences too. Today’s generation are more likely interested in technology and everything about robotics and computer. But I don’t see it working for me either. I still prefer those old type movies rather than seeing these modern ones.

Maybe because it depends in you're own perspective. You might want something that others cannot, it is just that maybe when they conduct the survey or something to come up with the tally there are some people who chooses the same thing. It really depends on how we interpret and expect things, I like technology, CGI etc as well but I am not into marvels nor Avatar that is on the list.

indeed! each one of us has different perspectives towards movies. most of the time, we also have different understanding on how good or great a movie is. and with that, you can understand that judges of this certain event have their own criteria as well. and that is why it is hard to bet on this kind of betting lines. there is no defined criteria because it depends on how the judges are evaluating  a certain category. much better to sit back and relax and enjoy the movie.

At least the films are well categorized, so it is a little less difficult to choose the best ones, as the organization already places in each category the best judges who have more affinity and taste for the category they are judging.
Voting is usually direct. The Academy has about 6 to 7 thousand voting members and each one of them can only vote in the area of their specialty.
Obviously, for best film, best actor, and others where it is not possible to have this clear separation, it gets a little more complicated and this is perhaps the reason for so much controversy in which "average" films end up being nominated instead of others that most of the public might consider to be better.

Still about the best film, for those who don't know how the voting works, I explain:

All judges organize a ranking of what their favorite movies are, they don't just choose, but several and put their preference from the first to the last.
The film that occupies the first place in more than 50% of the lists is declared the winner, but if none of them manages to be at the top of the rank of at least half of the voters, a system of exclusion of the least voted appears as an alternative tiebreaker.

Many factors calculate are not by the viewer or movie watcher but by the Jury in accordance with their expectation. overall, they will look at the technical and deep storyline of the movie, which sometimes we think is good but the jury says is nothing. So if someone wants to bet in oscar so just make it entertainment, don't take it too seriously, just use small money, maybe for example if you have fund $155 on-site use at least $5, so if you lose not as expectation you will not too disappointing.

I just wanna further explain this is true only for nomination process, in which editors nominate editors, cinematographers nominate fellow cinematographers etc. For an actual Oscar awards, all members can vote in all categories, no matter the branches. And yeah, Academy now has more than 10k members.


This is true only for the Best Picture in for which every Academy member can nominate its favorite, while only members of actor branch nominate actors for all 4 categories.


This is correct, only the Best Picture has preferential voting. Some will say that it is more fair, but I personally don't like this system as it causes the most "agreeable" movie to win instead those that actually take some risk.

Oscars are not really a wagering thing if you ask me, maybe I am wrong but isn't it basically decided already. Like unless something shocking happens, the fabelsmans should win it, spielberg should get the director and Cate Blanchett for the female and Brandon Fraser for the male. Those four categories are basically locked already and nobody is expecting anything else. Could it be ever possible to get shocked with some different result?

Well, of course and it has happened before but it's very rare and only with one of them. So, you could definitely gamble on these four, and will come out in profit unless something very unexpected happens. Oscars are rarely unexpected, people know who will get it.

If bookmakers accept bets on all outcomes, then it is obvious that the result is not predetermined (at least no one knows it in advance). Or do you think that if the result was known in advance, then bookmakers would give insiders the opportunity to take money from themselves? I am sure that in this case they would not accept bets on some outcomes.

Well, that's why the obvious choices have lesser multiplier compared to the possible 'shocking' results.

People really don't know until the results is announced. So far I have seen, the idea of who will win what is almost an easy guess and betting on this, is one sure way to cash out, but not with a big margin however
 I would suggest making two different bets for uncertainty sake.

I agree with you, I always believe that in this kind of events there will be some leakage happening or they can easily turn someone as Supporting Actor or Actress, it is more easier to bet in this kind of thing rather than in sports or some events. And I am not used to this nor want this kind of betting maybe it is not my thing but is not fun at all given that there's some rumors that can be seen online came from different sources maybe some paparazzi like that.

The result is unpredictable because sometimes, the majority's favorite doesn't win. They have a different basis for choosing the winners so our predictions won't go accurate all the time. I agree with making two different bets because, to be honest, the nominees are all qualified so guessing would be hard. It's exciting and quite confusing at the same time.

In some categories there are obvious favorites, but big surprises are still possible. Few years ago Chadwick Boseman was a huge favorite (mainly because he died prior the ceremony) but in the end Anthony Hopkins won the award (well deserved win I must add) so I wouldn't say that betting doesn't make sense. After all, there are many categories without a clear favorite which makes it more interesting and worth betting.


If you are so sure that its an easy money, wage a bigger amount and let's see how it goes.  ;) Problem is, when you have clear favorites, odds tend to be way too small so sometimes its not even worth it to bet because of bad risk to reward ratio.

I agree that it's basically decided beforehand, and to be fair Hopkins won because Hopkins was better, Boseman was only posed to win because he, unfortunately, passed away, but nobody thought he deserved it that year, without his tragic death, he would not be even discussed at all, some people just assumed Boseman would win because of the situation but that had nothing to do with it and Hopkins won as imagined.

I agree that it is mostly decided already, and as someone who has wagered on the last 3 Oscars, I have lost only a single bet once, which is fine I have turned a profit so far as well and I am going to keep making a profit as long as the odds are showing exactly who will win, which it usually does. Still time until March, but most of them are already guaranteed.

Also just watched Spirited, "good afternoon" really does deserve credit, lovely song, and definitely deserves an Oscar.

Good Afternoon to you all :D

Of course he wouldn't be even close to favorite if he didn't die (probably wouldn't even get nominated) but bookies were so sure in his win that they gave measly ~1.08 (not even worth the bet) while odds on Hopkins winning were ~7. Just because someone was clearly better (like Hopkins was and it was obvious to everyone who watched The Father and that other superhero movie) doesn't mean that it will win an Oscar as history is full of undeserved winners, unfortunately.

People and not much interested in oscar these days. These are so many other attraction that the trend of award watching is ending
I remember - when we were young we used to watch the award ceremonies and the whole family would sit and discuss. Nowadays mobile has changed the life of people altogether and this is not good at all.

I always like to do that job, sit down and enjoy, although honestly I have been aware of many movies that I find interesting, usually when there are many famous actors I pay a lot of attention to them, however I have noticed something in terms of Marvel movies and DC, those of DC are better recognized and rewarded, we cannot forget the Joker, the new Batman, the special effects and what they have to do with these films is something very different, can you see certain favorites there, I wonder Why are Marvel movies not recognized? Of course, in my personal opinion, the latest Marvel movies have seemed very low level, I don't know if it's due to inclusion or something similar, but they have been meaningless to me, when before they were the best.

Interestingly, those who bet on winners in nominations where there are no obvious favorites are guided by what? It is impossible to guess what is in the head of academicians, box office receipts and public ratings also do not matter. Does intuition (gambling) remain? Probably these bets are made just for fun, because serious analysis here (as in sports, for example) is impossible.

Hi - five, I am the one who have not watched the movie Avatar.
earlier I thought I am the only one who have not watched this movie - but today I found you too. I tried watching that film so many times but I didnot muster up the courage to watch it

Mee too - I love watching movie. In Fact I have difficulty sleeping when I dont watch movie at night. I am netflix addict and watch one movie everyday
I have even learnt from internet that there are companies which pay on watching their video for increase rating

Yes, was that when black lives matter was always on the news? The members of the academy might have decided not to put more fuel on the issue by not voting for the black actor hehe.

The last Oscar awards also had some surprises. Best picture favorite last year was Temple of the Dog but it was Coda that won, there was also the year when the movie Green Book won for best picture instead of the favorite Roma.

In any case, this look for changes in the odds after the Golden Globe awards on January 10. Some of the big changes could be something similar to trading signals.

In those cases its more about the guesstimate I think. If you follow Oscars and general Hollywood tendencies, you can (to some degree) figure out what could Academia people vote for. I personally make 2 tickets each year: one is based on those who I think will win, while another one is based solely on those I would like to win.



True, it was at the height of BLM craziness so everyone expected Chadwick Boseman to win, which caused many people to lose money, even though it was a bad bet with an awful R:R ratio obvious to everyone who saw Hopkins performance.


Yep, both Coda and Green Book undeservedly won; Coda was a decent movie but still just a remake of a French movie (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3547740/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0) made few years ago and inferior to Dog and Dune (I will never understand academy being so reluctant to give SF movie a best picture award and instead always playing it safe with dramas). Regarding Green Book, it was another solid movie but imho Roma was vastly superior (and one my favorite movies in the last few years) but we know that Academia has its own agenda.


Situation will be much clearer after that, but the odds are better now.  ;)

The mistake i made too often at the recent World Cup (football)  ;D
By trends, do you mean the so-called "agenda"? Yes, I have noticed that some films that do not meet it do not have a chance to win a prize, but I'm not sure how much this factor is influential in order to win exactly.

I do not think it would be impossible to know what's on the minds of the academy. In my opinion as well it is quite easy, you ask them and they tell you. You may imagine that it's a secretly done thing, but I think it is obvious and being shared to everyone. Go back as many years as possible and see the odds of the best picture for example and how many times the one that was pose to win ended up winning.

I can tell you that 90% of the time, unless something major happens; the one with the best odds will be the winner, that is always the case. Hence, I believe that it will be like that this year too. My bet is on the fabelmans, it is "sort of biography" type of deal, so I wagered on it.

Guessing... seriously, maybe not the reason to bet twice.

The favorite wins, if the Oscars have something, it is that they are predictable in their base categories, in the deeper or specialized categories there is variance.

In any case, the reason for winning an Oscar in its difficulty is that approximately 3000 people vote in common for a certain category. Actor and actress have the least variance, and usually the favorites manage to win.

Now the curious thing about this event is to see how traditional Sportsbooks are accepting this type of event.
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Yes, the truth is that when I saw the movie it made me feel very good, years ago, when I was a child, I watched Top Gun1, and every time it is shown on TV and I have the opportunity to see it, I do it, because they are movies that are very comprehensive. In addition, Tom Cruise had to learn to fly those planes to make Maverick, that's something I really admire, these actors are on another level, and it's impressive how he maintains himself, those who made the film show a lot of age, the woman who starred in it at that time is currently not the same, not even in body, the only one who maintains everything and who looks even young is him, he is impressive, well all of this helps us to say that this film is one of the better.

The nominations vote will start in two days from now (12th January) and on 24th January we will get the announcement on all the final nominations. I still believe that we may get a few surprises when the announcement is made on 24th. Last time, CODA managed to win the Oscars for best picture despite stiff competition from Belfast, Dune and The Power of the Dog. And one year earlier, it was Nomadland which was able to beat competition from Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Father. Back then Nomadland had odds of 1/6, while the odds for The Trial Of The Chicago 7 was 6/1.       

Odds for the Golden Globe awards.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2488676-golden-globe-award-2023

There are some differences in odds of the Oscar awards in different categories. For best actor, the Golden Globe awards have Austin Butler as a very big favorite for his performance as an actor in a drama role in Elvis. The odds for him in the Oscar awards is 4.00.

Colin Farrell is another very big favorite for his acting in a comedy in the Banshees of Inisherin with odds of 1.09, however, his odds for best actor in the Oscar awards is 3.00.

Odds for the Oscar awards for comparison.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets

We might find some trading signals hehehehe.

I suspect Austin Butler being such a big favorite has something with Brendan Fraser saying that he won't attend the Golden Globe ceremony even if he gets nominated because he claimed to be sexually assaulted back in 2003 by the former Golden Globes president Philip Berk so I guess that's their way of getting back at him.


In this case, odds are so different because Oscar has only one best actor category so there he has to go against Brendan Fraser.

And how often do you personally interact with academics who vote for the Oscars?  ;D
As for the fact that the favorites win in most cases, it is natural - otherwise they would not be favorites. The same thing happens in sports - if you look into the depths of years, you can find very few seasons when a non-favorite won in a round-robin tournament. Even in tennis, where the games are knockout and there is no room for error, the favorites mostly win.

Imagine how terrible that must be. Golden Globes had someone who sexually assaulted Brandon Fraser, and instead of coming up with a way to apologize and fix the situation, they decided not to give him the award as a response to his claims. Doubling down on their horribleness basically.

But to be fair, the famous people we know right now are probably having decent enough life but Hollywood as a whole is a power trip place where everyone tries to get other to do something in return of fame. That black casting couch thing is very much real and definitely a problem in the industry. So it is not just the golden globes that are in the wrong here, it's the whole industry that turns blind eye to it.

The $7 dollar entry fee for Wakanda Forever is at a "specialty" theatre where they've got just 50 seats and they all recline and what not.  This movie is also close to being out of theatres so it was $7 for a during the day ticket.  The screen quality is also pretty crappy.  I do plan to go so Avatar soon at my local high end theatre with IMAX and all that, those tickets are currently $16.19, but I'm guessing this does not cover taxes, so it's probably close to $18. 

OK.. got it. So in your country, the tax rate is somewhere around 10%. Here we have this shitty thing called "entertainment tax" which adds an additional 28% over the original ticket rates. And this is not just applicable for movie tickets, but for tickets to sports events and stage shows as well. Then there are additional state level charges levied on top of this. For example, one of my friends from the state of Kerala told me that the ticket for a cricket match costs ₹1,445 (original price is ₹1,000 and the tax levied stands at ₹445).

BTW, Avatar 2 has grossed $1,730,906,779 till now from the global box office. At this point, it is the 7th highest grossing film of all time.

Ke Huy Quan won the Golden Globe for best supporting actor for the movie Everything Everywhere All At Once. The first name he mentioned in his thank you speech was Steven Spielberg and Spielberg acknowledged him. Are you scratching your head? You should watch Indiana Jones And The Temple Of Doom again hehehehehe. Ke Huy Quan was the actor playing the role of Short Round.

Hah I had no idea that actor was Short Round, and I watched both movies in the last few months. Usually when I like the movie I check on IMDb to find more about actors/director/screenwriters if they are unknown to me, but since I stopped Everything Everywhere All At Once somewehre in the middle as I just couldn't stand all that chaos, I never bothered to check it. Anyway, thanks for that info.

For those interested, here is the link with all Golden Globe winners, it may help you choosing Oscar bets https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/golden-globes-2023-winners-list-1235294541/

Here in India, everyone is celebrating after a song (Naatu Naatu) from one of the local movies (RRR) won Golden Globe award for the best original song. The composer (Koduri Maragathamani Keeravaani) will be receiving the award and this is the first time that a movie from India has won a Golden Globe award. Naatu Naatu also becomes the first ever Asian song to win Golden Globe. I just hope that the momentum will be carried forward to the Oscars as well. Any award during the Oscars would be an added sweetener.

Golden globes are not an indicator for the Oscars. There is a very clear difference between popularity and artistic approach. Like for example the whole thing with the difference is the winner of best actor, Austin Butler looks like 6.00 odds here, third, not even second and yet we still see him be the winner, along with Colin Farrel as well, who is second but no Brandon Fraser anywhere.

All in all, if it is a movie that is based on making the acting shine more than the story, there is a good chance for Oscars, or if there is a good political message that tells a story about a time that was normal back then and seen as such a bad period now, there is a good chance there too.

I already explained the (imho) reason for such a big difference between Golden Globe odds and Oscar odds for best actor award but here it is again.

First of all, Golden Globes have two different awards for the best actor: "Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama" and "Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy" while Oscar has only one, which automatically means that for example Austin Butler and Colin Farrel can't go against each other. 2nd reason why odds on Austin Butler were so low is because Brendan Fraser (his only serious contender) has serious beef with Golden Globes organization (he accused their former president of sexual assault) and said that he has no plans of even attending the ceremony so of course no one expected Brendan Fraser to win, which reflected in lower odds for Austin Butler (he did a good job in "Elvis" but I personally didn't like the movie much, mainly because Baz Luhrmann's directing style).

I have watched this movie - and this movie RRR is the worse movie I ever watched so much fantasy and over imaginative. And one man being having so much of super natural powers. And the song got the Golden Globe award. i fast Fwded the song.
Indian most of the time get more than what they deserve. 

I am amazed to read the post which says a song of film RRR has won the golden globe award - there is nothing interesting in that song and the film is a flop
even then the song won the golden globe award. strange and very almaring

You are correct, it is not. The Oscar awards and the Golden Globe awards have different groups of artists and workers from the movie industry who vote for their candidates. The politics and the agenda is also different hehehe. However, we should always look for those changes in the odds. Brendan Fraser's odds for best actor has changed to 2.25, Colin Farrell is 2.62 and Austin Butler 2.75.

Also for best picture, the Fabelmans odds has changed to 3.50, Everything Everywhere All At Once changed to 2.75 and The Banshees of Inisherin to 2.50. This might be best picture for Banshees, I reckon. I speculate that when the official nominations are announced, Banshees will be on 1.80 or lower.

Source https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2374009-academy-awards-2023-special-bets

there was a time when we used to watch the award ceremonies - but now even the Oscar too is loosing the charm
There are so many awards ceremonies - yet there is little interest - last time the drama during Oscar award ceremony was something which made people notice that Oscar happened.

It's true that in any competition, including the Academy Awards, the favourites often have the best odds of winning. This is because the favourites are typically the films or performances that have received the most critical acclaim, have the most buzz, and have a strong track record of winning other awards.

It's also true that it's not impossible to know what is on the minds of the members of academy juries who vote for the Oscars. While the voting process is private and the academy doesn't release the results of the voting, there are many sources of information such as industry experts, critics, and insiders who can provide insight into the thinking of the academy members. However, it's important to note that the final decision is up to the members and it's not possible to know for sure who will win until the ceremony.

its been three days I have read the post that RRR song won the Golden globe award - I really doubt the Golden globe jeury 
I still have no shame in admitting that this is the worse movie I have ever watched !! Why then they got golden globe award? even the song is too over exaggerated

If you don't like the film, I can understand. The film is about the resistance by Indian freedom fighters against the British colonial administration. But don't claim that the film was a flop, or the song was not popular. It was a blockbuster at the box office here in India, and currently ranks as the 3rd highest collecting Indian movie at the global box office (behind Dangal and Baahubali 2). Also the song is wildly popular in India, and the YouTube video has clocked 114 million views. I can understand if you claim that the movie is not popular outside India, but then India is home to 1/7th of the world's population.

In particular, I really like watching movies from India, even their musicals are different, I can't deny that the actresses are too beautiful and when they show something of their culture it seems sensational to me, I like everything that is from India, plus it has that touch that it is a very different geographical area, some say that some of its plants and its medicine is quite curative, in fact, there are many that have an exclusive business model, they import medicine to South America, especially the vaccines that are for babies, since they are of excellent quality, then India and its cinema is very exciting, what happens is that in the cinema that reaches Hollywood, the cinema that comes locally is not very relevant.

this is undoubtedly a case where we all have to ask the following question:

- are the people who vote in good mental health?

after asking this question we have to see the people who voted and know their psychological background something like the choices and reasons that make these people choose a certain choice because in recent years I have seen each thing more ridiculous than the other being voted on and I am wondering who are the people who are voting? because honestly this is a close path, very close, they vote nonsense things, at least for me I don't see anything interesting in this video, of course it may have some cultural aspect of india, but in this video there is nothing interesting

Personal preferences differ from individual to individual. I made a post about the song, because it is very rare to have a film from India getting shortlisted for any of the global awards. And for the Oscars, there is 0.000% chance that any of the films will even get nominated. That said, if the Oscars claim that they represent the entire globe, then they need to be inclusive. As I mentioned previously, this song has gathered well over 100 million views in YouTube and the movie is one of the highest grossing Indian films ever made. Anyway, let's move on and discuss about the main topic. Afterall, Golden Globe and Oscars are as different as chalk and cheese.

Here (https://www.goldenglobes.com/articles/hfpa-members-and-countries) it is, list of 105 members of HFPA (Hollywood Foreign Press Association) that are voting for Golden Globe. In short, those are bunch of journalists all over the world and its much different from Oscar as 80% of Academy members are Americans + there's like almost 10k of them.

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About the Oscar, I see that odds (I am checking at nicerodds (https://www.nicerodds.co.uk/academy-award)) on Everything Everywhere All At Once keep dropping, probably because they won 5 Critics' Choice Awards and the same thing happening with Brendan Fraser. Voting for nominees ended yesterday so now we have ton wait until 24th for the nominations.

That's right, Brendan Fraser leaves us a tremendous performance, he has won everything so far, in fact last night he won the Critics Choice Awards and in fact he is a safe nomination, so those odds of @1.5 that the OP mentions will decrease with the days.

Now, the Oscars are something else and history has shown that winning the award route before the Oscars does not guarantee success, so be careful with the money of bets on trust to win.

He's an actor, right? Hollywood has shown great legendary performances and they have never been nominated and even great performances for decades and never even get a nomination.

So that goes to show that you only need to be an actor to have a chance of being nominated for an Oscar.

It is always good that anything that is done outside of the USA getting nominated is important. We all remember that time "parasite" won, right? It wasn't an American made movie and it won, which made so much noise. It gives the movie world outside of the Hollywood some credibility and it gives a global attention. Something that is huge in our own nation, becomes huge world wide ands insanely good thing to have.

I am glad every time anything non-USA based nominated and then some of them even wins, that's great. I try to be as respectful as when I say this that it is not even limited to India, it is for ANYTHING that isn't Hollywood, because it is globally deserving credit to those achievements.

Haven't heard anything about smith being banned from the Hollywood movies, talk more of getting 'em for that long... Is it serving as a deterrent for his past overreactions on Chris Rock during a minor stage Play? Or did he get involved in some malicious doings we've known nothing about yet? Cus an indigenous actor like himself shouldn't get such as a penalty for his mistakes.... I still remember the legendary role he played in a popular movie, "men in black". ..as I kept watching over and over again' until I caught the Least glimpse that I'd prolly have lost during an involuntary eyeblink or something.... He should be amongst the nominees ofcourse.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

@Rikafip. It appears that our surprise movie for this year's Oscar awards might be All Quite On the Western Front after receiving the highest number of nominations in BAFTA with 14. There are movie experts beginning to speculate that Edward Berger might be an unexpected winner for best director.

I might watch the movie later, it is available in Netflix. I always see it being recommended, however, I always ignore it to watch Spy Family hehehehehe.

Edward Berger for best director? I checked a few weeks back and he was not even in the top-10 list. And it would be a shock for anyone if Steven Spielberg fails to win this award (with his movie - The Fabelmans). IMO, the next most possible choices are Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Todd Field (Tár) and Daniel Kwan/Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once). If I am given the power, I would rather give this award to James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), but then you need to take in to account the fact that normally the Oscar jury doesn't like this type of movies.

Hm I honestly haven't seen such rumours and I just checked I didn't notice odds changing dramatically in its favor. I initially thought that maybe Academy will want anti-war movie to win best picture award due ongoing war in Ukraine, but bookies think different.


Like you I am also tempted every time I browse Netflix but so far I've been avoiding it mainly because I am a big fan of first version from 1930 (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0020629/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_3) and I doubt that it can surpass that one which is for me one of the best antiwar movies ever made, even though its been made more than 90 years ago. I will probably watch it before Oscars as I do plan to bet on that category and I can't do it unless I've seen at least couple of favorites. So far I've only seen Decision to Leave and Argentina, 1985 and I am leaning more towards the latter.

This is why I like Cannes a lot more, in the world of Cannes you get to see movies from all around the world, they are not works that are Oscar like, they are just artistic movies that gets very few and limited viewership, they are movies for intellectuals but at the very least they are fair towards the whole world and not just to France where it's held (I think?).

Oscars should be more like that, it's not about the best movie that comes out of Hollywood, but the best movie anywhere in the world, and that would make it harder to watch that much more movies, but it's definitely possible if you look at the most watched movies of at least 20-30 more nations.

Well what can you do if the governing body of the said award is mostly from the West? They'd push for more Western representation rather than get nominations from movies and actors/actresses from the other side of the world. I agree that Cannes is one of the most prestigious awards out there for film, and most of the winners they pick really deserve the commendation and the recognition.  I've tried watching some of the movies that were nominated in Cannes a few years ago, and I can definitely say that it's not for everyone, though the art in the films they produce are really something else. Unpredictable story line, raw emotions, beautiful use of scenery.. unlike Hollywood films wherein it's mostly explosive and very predictable storylines with very cliche dialogues.

You are mixing two very different things. First and foremost, Cannes is a movie festival (like Sundance, Berlin, Venice, Karlovy Vary etc) whose goal is not to give awards for best movies made in some specific year like Oscar is, or BAFTA, Golden Globes etc. Now that you mentioned France, their sort of equivalent of Oscar is Cesar Award but it only gives awards to French movies (+for best international one) so I think that Academy is doing by including bunch of foreign movies in their award is a good thing. After all, Oscars initially started as an award for American movies only, but later developed into what it is now.

lol - that is the question
This is the worst movie I ever watched in lifetime. The hero jumps from the ground and lands up on a tarace of a palace to save his sister and kills the whole staff of the palace single handedly - such a flop movie and the song won Golden Globe award- I think they just have to make India win something - that is it

That's what I am saying, it should be world wide and not just American if they want to improve the movie world. Why? Because if there is a movie that they believe was done better than any other american made movie, and they do not give them the reward just because they are not american, it wouldn't be fair.

I am not saying there are movies better than American ones every year, most of the years I agree that american movies are the best movies of that year, they have the talent, the fame, the experience, the staff and everything else that is the best there, rarely we get to see better movies, but when we do? It shouldn't be ignored and rewarded like the parasite did.

But why would they do that, what would be the benefit for American film industry to "improve the film world"? Oscar is first and foremost American movie award, and one of the purposes is to award and protect American film industry. And later it developed into what we see now, with finally non-American movie winning a Best Picture award.

Don't get me wrong, I would like if foreign movies have the same chance of winning like American ones (good example of that Roma which is a vastly superior to Green Book, but latter won the award nevertheless) but I also understand why they are doing it that way. Less American movies winning award means less money poured into American movie industry equals less money for actors, directors etc and exactly those people vote for the awards (afaik 80% Academy members are Americans).

It is so nice to see Brendan Fraser being back to his old happy self again. I mean he was one of the biggest stars coming into 2000's and I mean like he was seriously at the highest level paid type of actor, he was at a level of the biggest names, think of the biggest movie star you could think of, and he was there.

We have seen a 20 year period give or take of him being gone, played in smaller roles of course to keep it going but never in anything big. Finally seeing him in something that got this much attention, and I am sure the roles must be flying to him now. I think it is really great to see him being back as in not just roles but also look at his interviews, dude feels like how he used to be. It's really fun to see. I hope he wins it.

Guys and gals, Oscar 2023 nomination list is out and from what I could see, there's no major surprises. Everything Everywhere All at Once is leader with 11 nominations, followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin each getting nominated in 11 categories. Here is the full list https://variety.com/2023/film/news/oscar-nominations-2023-list-1235495072/

Actually, if I can call something surprising (at least for me), that's Avatar getting Best Picture nomination. I saw the movie last weekend and it was a big disappointment. Yeah it looks good, but that's all there is to it, nothing else really. But I guess since movie made 2 billion dollars already, it made sense for them to include it.

edit: now I see that odds on Everything Everywhere All at Once went even more down, probably caused by being the leader when it comes to amount of nominations. Despite being favorite, I simply can't bet on a movie that I couldn't even finish so I will probably got for a surprise and Banshees instead.

Thanks to Rikafip for posting the list of nominations. I was glad to see Avatar: The Way of Water getting nominated for the best picture. With box office collection in billions, it at least deserves a few nominations. In terms of odds, Everything Everywhere All at Once is far ahead of all the other films. I checked Stake.com, and the odds are as follows:

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.61
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.25
Top Gun: Maverick: 11.00
The Fabelmans: 12.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 66.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.50
Austin Butler: 4.25
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

I agree that Avatar getting that nomination is wild. I think Fabelmans would probably win, and Brendon will probably win as well, those are locked in my mind if you ask me, but maybe I am wrong. The closer we get, the more we are going to end up with getting true results and it will be decided that way, the odds will change a bit the closer we get and the odds for the winner will be decided by that point.

I know that people do not believe this, but the favourites usually win and I think that it will be the same way this year again, we are going to see the favourites win again. You do not have to wager accordingly, you could make some other claims, but it is fine right now the way it is for me.

The betting round is official!

There are many names where to put the money,  actor and actress are the categories where I like to predict and eventually place bets with friends... and then something in the casinos.

Having said that, the insurance is Brendan Fraser, it would be a surprise if he does not win and on the female side it would be a surprise if Ana De Armas wins (?).

All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in 9 categories. I am shocked because every critic was quiet about this movie until BAFTA nominations were announced. The skeptical me thinks that the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have an agenda to help stop the war in Ukraine hehe. They will vote for this movie to win as much oscars as possible to bring the winners on the stage to deliver their antiwar speeches hehehe.

The movie is also very much underestimated with odds of 36.00. If this wins best picture in BAFTA on February, expect this to lead everywhere.

Well.. I am not sure about this. All Quiet on the Western Front has nothing to do with the ongoing war in Ukraine. It shows the horrors of war and there is no doubt about it, but set in 1918 during the closing stages of World War 1. I don't have a Netflix subscription, so haven't watched this movie yet. Anyway, as of now the chances that this film may win any award is minimal. The odds are as follows (from Stake.com and others):

Best Picture: 36.00
Best Adapted Screenplay: 5.00
Best International Feature Film: 3.20 (first in rankings)
Best Original Score: 30.00
Best Sound: 4.50
Best Production Design: 8.00
Best Cinematography: 5.00 (2nd in rank)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: 6.00
Best Visual Effects: 6.50

But aren't you contradicting yourself here? First you said that The Fabelmans will probably win, while the actual favorite at the moment is Everything Everywhere All at Once (and you said that favorites usually win). Honestly, despite it being a favorite, I simply don't see them winning Best Picture award. Maybe I am biased because I disliked movie so much that I couldn't even finish it, but I just can't bet on it ot see it winning via preferential vote.


Despite being nominated in many categories, I don't expect this one to actually win many Oscars as there is some tough competition in each one of those. After all, their are the favorites in only the Best International Feature category, and even there they are not the 100% locked.

I plan to watch it this weekend to finally see how good it is compared to that 1930 masterpiece.

Did you watch All Quiet on the Western Front already? It might win for the best cinematography hehe. The sportsbooks already have this as the favorite, however. I thought some comments in this thread that said it had odds of 5.00 was true. I was not very happy to see the odds was only 1.50. But it might have a better chance than expected in the best adapted screenplay category. This is where they can tell the speech and spread the academy's antiwar agenda hehehehe.

Unfortunately not yet. Plan was to watch it this weekend but on Friday I saw one episode of Andoran (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9253284/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_1), got hooked on it and decided to binge the whole season over the weekend. I plan to sort that out this week as I've been postponing for way too long (initial plan was to watch it on the same day it premiered on Netflix and we see how that turned out)


Hah, I thought that Elvis is a favorite, which would make it a first woman (afaik) to ever win an Oscar in that category. I am somewhat  surprised that Top Gun didn't get nominated and I would like to see Banshees as I really enjoyed that movie visually.


Maybe those were the old odds and now they changed. I see that odds on Everything Everywhere All at Once keeps dropping as well, now its ~1.45.

Is all quiet on the Netflix as well? I didnt have an idea
I will look into it. And will write my views over them

If you can figure out whatever trendy cause is belle of the ball this year you could raise the odds of guessing who will win the prize.   Quite a large part of Oscar wins is supporting whatever possible social dynamic might be unfolded within a film, whoever does it best in the most artistic way etc.

Top Gun Im not surprised by especially, it is a remake and nothing new or edgy in its story exactly.   There is a kind of promotional element they are looking for, 'never before' type gushy award type thing so Top Gun was a technicals or other category nomination possibly but not the main awards.   Thats how I look at all the firms, there is the award to the film but also the opposite in that Oscars wants reflected glory also for a film that is memorable or unique in some kind of way, most obviously first of that kind of film/story.

I am, and that's a bit of a tough situation for me. Fabelmans were the favourites, and now they are not, I said favourites would win, and they were favourites, so at that time I was right, and now they are not suddenly and I have no idea why. Maybe because EEAO won so many awards that people expect them to win the Oscars too? That could be reason but when favourites change, that creates a little bit of chaos.

If Fabelmans stayed the favourites then me saying they will win makes sense, or if EEAO was the favourite from start then they would be the eventual winners too. But in a situation where favourite changes hand? That causes a little bit of trouble for me, now I don't know who will win :D. But, 100% sure it will be either one or the other.

Yep, its on Netflix for quite some time. As a matter of fact, it even 'premiered' there.


Top Gun was not remake but a sequel and there is a big difference between those tho things. But even if movie was remake, its not the reason for Academy not to award it with Best Picture Oscar. For example, last year's winner in that category (CODA) was a remake of the french movie The Bélier Family (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3547740/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0) and there were other remakes in the past that achieved the same. By the way, not saying that Top Gun should win it, just saying that Academy doesn't care much if movie is remake or not as long as it fits their agenda.

What happened to The Fabelmans?

It started as the favorite to win Oscar for best picture, but now it is being given odds of 15.00. I posted the odds from stake.com a few days ago. But odds have drastically changed since then. Latest odds are as follows (please compare them with my previous post):

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.44
The Banshees of Inisherin: 3.75
Top Gun: Maverick: 13.00
The Fabelmans: 15.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 36.00
Women Talking: 81.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

The odds for best actor (from Stake.com):

Brendan Fraser: 1.61
Colin Farrell: 3.75
Austin Butler: 4.00
Paul Mescal: 26.00
Bill Nighy: 36.00

That's a good question and I have no idea. I would somewhat understand if it bombed at other awards (all that affects the odds in the end) but it didn't and while The Fabelmans odds kept going up, Everything Everywhere All At Once kept going down. Even though its quite original in its concept (even too original for my taste), under all that chaos and parallel universe stuff its just another woke drama about accepting the different people and we all know how much Academy loves those.

I somehow hoped that with CODA winning Best Picture award last year Academy filled bs quota for a year or two so we may actually see agenda free movie winning an award this but I guess I was too optimistic.

As a person who has watched everything everywhere all at once, that wasn't really a movie I liked, maybe that's just my personal thing and I didn't understand it, but I try to watch at least one new movie a day, so I feel like I understand about movies even if just a bit, I have watched over 3000 movies so far in my life, and I am not saying I am a critic or I understand better than Oscars jury or anything like that, but seriously... it is just not the type of movie that wins.

By this logic, they could have given best picture to avengers end game as well, it was a great story writing and amazing cinematography and great cgi etc etc, it had everything this one has but even better. Definitely would be disappointment if that movie wins.

Do not be quite so certain on this not winning the Oscar for the best picture award. This might be this year's Coda hehehe. The best tactic to bet on this is to bet a small amount before BAFTA then bet again if it wins the best picture award in BAFTA or the best adapted screenplay. On 2022, Coda was something similar, it won for best adapted screenplay in BAFTA and won for best picture in the Oscars.

However, if it wins an award for a technical category, it might increase the chance to win on the technical categories in the Oscars.

We still have approx. 40 days to go for the announcement and the odds can change a lot till then. But I don't understand your enthusiasm towards All Quiet on the Western Front. Over time, the odds have worsened for this movie and now most of the sportsbooks are giving ~36.00 for this one. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite. I would be really surprised if any other movie get declared as the best picture on 13th March, when the announcement will be formally made.

BTW, who do you guys think will win the Oscar for best actress? I believe Cate Blanchett has the maximum chance. She is being given better odds when compared to Michelle Yeoh (1.66 vs 2.20). BTW, I saw the movie Decision to Leave. Tang Wei's performance was exceptional. But none of the gambling sites have given good odds for her.

From what I remember, odds on CODA were never as big as they are now on All Quiet on the Western Front. And on top of that, CODA was in line with Hollywood agenda which is also an important thing and as added bonus, so is Everything Everywhere All at Once which is one of the reasons why its the favorite to win Best Picture award.


I saw all the three movies and imho Cate Blanchett did the best job in Tar so I think 1.66 on her is a pretty good odd, while as a film I personally liked Decision to Leave the most (I am big fan of Park Chan-wook and eevrything he made so far). With that being said, my gut feeling tells me that Everything Everywhere All at Once might reap the Oscar awards this year so I can definitely see Michelle Yeoh winning an award too.

Thank you for your message  - I must watch this asap.
You are right although Top Gun is a sequel - but it did a good business on the box office. Correct me if I am wrong.

Remake might not disqualify and also sequel but I'd stick it down as being a point against a win, nothing is absolute but it doesnt help the case very often to put it that way is quite right imo.


I wasnt that impressed personally, outside of the complexity of the story and perhaps originality.  I rate it average, I definitely didnt dislike the story but for in-depth or ground breaking story making I didnt find it exceptional so I will really struggle to bet on this choice personally.  Obviously not about me its the votes that go into the Oscar win, I have to guess on that body of opinion but its hard for me to weigh in that choice as credible right now.  Sometimes nominations are done just so they are on the list, the actual chance of the win wasn't there even with a popular film that is not enough.   Going to have to think about this one but for now its a no imo.

It is impressive how this feature film, which was shot in just 38 days at the beginning of the covid pandemic, with a low budget of more than 14 million and a team of 9 people in digital effects (which are many) managed to arrive at such an exciting work and well done to the point of becoming, deservedly, the favorite for the main Oscar prize and 10 more nominations.

Another fact that favors this film is the great pressure that the Oscars are having to award more stories by NON-white people, because when we see that among the nominees for Actor and Actress there are very few blacks represented, foreign, black, Asian actors , etc. almost always stay in the supporting categories.

I am only speculating that the war in Ukraine will be Hollywood's leading agenda on the awarding ceremomies on March. They like doing this every year hehehe. How would those antiwar speeches be heard if a movie that shows the terrors of war does not win an important category?

In any case, we will know after the BAFTA winners are announced on February 24. Other important dates for Oscar bettors are Director's Guild Awards on February 18, Actor's Guild Awards on February 25 and Oscars final voting on March 2 where information might be leaked.

I agree to the point that the Hollywood is using Ukraine to gain their benefits but at the end Ukraine will be left with the aid and blood money and nothing more and nothing less. This is what we have seen so far since our childhood - the superpowers keep destroying weak counties and test their weapons.
Be it Afghanistan - Syria - Palestine or Ukraine - the story is same - the skin is different.

If that's the goal, they can easily do that while giving it an Oscar for the best foreign movie, as it has a good chance of winning in that category.

By the way, I finally saw it yesterday and while it was a good film I can't say it had the effect on my I thought it will. Maybe because I already saw 1930 version so I kinda new what to expect. Tehnical part of the movie was excellent as it looked very realistic and gritty (loved the action scenes) with very good cinematography so it could definitely scoop a couple of Oscars in that departments as well. I honestly don't remember last time I saw some European movie looking so good. Overall, one of the better WW1 movies around and definitely worth watching.

For me personally still not the best movie among the nominees (Banshees are still the best) but I wouldn't mind if it miraculously wins an Oscar in Best Picture category.

@Rikafip. Agreed! It will certainly win for the best foreign film. The odds suggests this hehehe, however, because of the speculation that Hollywood will be on a antiwar agenda, the speech will be more heard if this can win one of the important categories. If the director also wrote the screenplay, it might be voted for best adapted screenplay hehehe. For best cinematography, it is also the favorite already but this category is a technical one. More important are best movie, best director, best screenplay and winners for the actors and actresses.

I got these odds from Stake, for the best foreign film:

All Quiet on the Western Front: 1.08
Argentina, 1985: 10.00
EO: 12.00
The Quiet Girl: 15.00
Close: 31.00

As you can see, All Quiet on the Western Front is far ahead of everyone else and is given more than 90% probability of winning. With such high odds, I don't think any other film stands a chance in this category.

Well, I don't think that the best foreign film is insignificant award (its not the level of best costume design e.g) so if someone really wants to make anti-war speech, he will be able to do it.


Director (Edward Berger) is also one of the screenwriters, but I don't see why would that fact increase the chances of movie winning a best adapted screenplay award.


Tbh, that bet is bad to me at these odds. I got screwed up enough times on sub 1.2 bets on Oscar winners in the past so one of my rules is that I don't take the odds lower than that. Yeah I know that it will most likely win an award in that category, but I just don't like risk to reward ratio in that specific bet.

Agreed on this. In sports, I don't usually bet with odds lower than 1.20 - 1.25. I got my fingers burnt with a few similar bets almost a decade back, and after that I have been very careful with such lop-sided odds. I would still claim that All Quiet on the Western Front has around 80% to 90% chance of winning Oscar in this category. But you never know about the last minute considerations that will be made. Considering how the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is lighting up the social sphere, there will be repercussions on this year's Oscars as well. All Quiet on the Western Front is an anti-war movie, and therefore fits the narrative. But you never know how the jury will look at it.

This seems to be a rather difficult bet.

How on earth are you supposed to bet on how a bunch of people rate a movie?

This seems like one of the most random bets I've ever seen.

It's not like sports betting since usually a strong team will win, this is about how people feel about watching a movie, which can be extremely random.

I guess you never bet on Miss World or Eurovision song contest if you think that Oscar betting is random.  :D


It may seem that Oscars are completely random, but there are some factors that can help you narrow down who could win. For example, movies that that deal with women, LGBTQ and other minority groups are usually a good choice in the last decade or two. Winning other awards can help too, but not by much.

Another thing that affects the race is amount of money that studio is ready to invest in the Oscar marketing campaign itself which is often measured in tens of millions of dollar and in some cases Oscar marketing campaign can cost more than a movie itself. Good example of that is Roma, movie that cost ~$15 million while Netflix spent more than $25 million for Oscar campaign but in the end it failed to win Best Picture award as it went to Green Book (movie about sort of friendship between white guy and black gay man) instead. Roma was imho far superior movie, but Green Book was more in line with what Hollywood prefers at the moment and on top of that Roma was produced by a streaming site which could also affected its chances (some big names in industry like Steve Spielberg were against movies produced by streaming sites competing in Oscars).

That is why you have 2 things that you can base your bet on. First of all the odds help, because they somehow get the "results" or at least what the jury is thinking or what the media is saying etc etc, there is a reason why some get 1.18 while others get 30.00, it's not just random, it's not made up, there is a reason for that.

So you can use those odds, or you could just check the previous awards as well, that's another important piece of information, when one movie wins multiple awards until Oscars, there is a good chance they may also get the Oscars as well, doesn't mean they will, it just means there is a chance that it could happen and those two things are very important. So, when you see a movie that has 1.18 odds and won 3 major awards? That usually means they will get the Oscar as well.

I am trying to decide whether I should lay some bets on this or not.  I was pretty confident that Brendan Fraser was going to win actor of the year but now I'm not so sure.  Brendan was on Howard Stern yesterday (or the day before, something like that) and Howard said to him something like "you know you're a lock to win actor of the year" and Brendan responded that he honestly wasn't sure that he would win it.  Sometimes these things get a little crazy..but, still plan to lay a bet on him as actor of the year.

Yes, fair enough. You do have some background information, like previous contests, etc.

I wonder if the jury actually watches all the films or they just read about the previous contests to make their minds  ;D

I mean, it's a lot of movies, each one about 2 hours long, that's a lot of movie watching.

Also, it really depends on how you feel while you're watching the movie.

Depends on who are included within the jury. Although I would agree when you say that political considerations of the jury can have an impact on the results, it would be wrong to assume that all of the members have the same political inclination. There maybe left-leaning members of the jury who prefer films such as the Green Book, but at the same time, there may also be members from the other end of the political spectrum. But given the recent developments, it would be safe to assume that a majority of the members would be left-leaning.

All members of Academy (~10k) only vote for Best Picture award, everything else is divided by their professions so for example actors vote for acting awards, screenwriters for screenplay etc so it makes it much easier for them. But in the end, they don't even have to watch the movies they are voting and its safe to assume that some of them don't even watch all the nominated movies, even only in their category. The only award (afaik) where members actually have to watch all nominated movies (there's only 5 of them though) in order to vote  is for the Best International Feature.



Since Academy consists of  ~10k members, of course they can't all have the same views, but I think that its pretty obvious based on the last 2 decades where majority leans, and I see no end to this trend since newer generations of film industry workers are even more left-leaning. As long as Academy worries more about minority quotas and politics rather than the actual quality, Oscar relevance will keep declining. Up until 10 years ago I was staying up whole night (due time difference) just to watch the show live, while now there's no chance to even watch it in the reruns.

Regarding the Best Picture award, its even harder for a movie that doesn't fit Hollywood narrative to win the award because they use preferential voting (for that category only) so there's no chance that a movie that wins let's say 25% votes win an award even though it had more votes than the other nominees and in the end the movie that is more generally liked wins. People say its more fair that way, but I think that removes element of surprise form the awards which is imho a bad thing.

It is safe to say that Hollywood is mostly left-leaning and the jury is from Hollywood, which means that it would most probably be a left-leaning one. This is why we are no longer in the worlds of godfather winning type of thing, we are in a period when "Oscar movie" and the best movie will never be the same because of the politics. Like Coda? Really? Are we even being serious, being the "best" movie of a whole year? Things have changed a lot and we are not going to see that much important movies.

I think the best movie of this year was Avatar and I haven't even seen it, you know why? It grossed over 2 billion dollars, that should tell you why it was the "best" movie, that's what people thinks.

Not sure if trolling or serious. Probably the latter so I will continue.

Earlier in your post you said "we are no longer in the worlds of godfather winning type of thing" and then you go on and suggest that the best movie should be the one that made most money. While its true for Godfather (first part only), vast majority of Best Picture winners were never those that were at the top of box office (not even in the probably the best movie decade ever, 1970s) and not even the Godfather 2  which was arguably  better than the first part and it was the first sequel ever that won Best Picture award. What you suggest would be even worse than how it is now as all we would get is even more thrash.

Unlike you, I actually went to cinema and watched Avatar 2 and its a very average movie, even boring at times (honestly I couldn't wait it to finish). While first Avatar had unoriginal story but visually it was something new that we haven't seen before, 2nd part had even worse scenario and visual component wasn't really that impressive and new as it was the first time.

I can actually agree with you. I went to watch the Avatar (the first part) with my friends. I found it mostly boring, although the visual effects were impressive. But everyone else in my group was praising the movie and there was a guy who labelled it as the best movie he ever watched in his life. And for Avatar 2, when my family members booked the tickets, I told them that I am not interested. Tickets are quite expensive as well ($15 per head for IMAX). I thought it was not worth the time or money. So in this case, I can agree with you.

And regarding the voting preferences of the jury, I don't want to comment on it before the results are out. But the "preferential voting" system doesn't sound fair to me. 

I disagree that the box office should determine if a movie is the best or not. Much of the Marvel movies are box office hits, does this imply that they are the best movies? Should we ignore other movies that show us good film making and replace them with films created for financial gain? If this was true for you then Titanic and Avatar are the best work of film making in the world? This is will be very headshaking hehehe.

In any case, Coda won best picture on 2022. This might be because the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences members wanted to vote on something light hearted after what the world has gone through with the coronavirus pandemic. The voters are following on what they want the storylines and the narratives for the present time. This is why I speculate All Quiet on the Western Front might have better expectations to win best picture because of the antiwar agenda on Ukraine.

@Rikafip. Is there a Ukranian candidate for Eurovision?

Idea behind this decision is that winner of Best Picture award should be the one that is generally more liked than the others (some say that's more fair) but all that makes is film makers trying to appease to everyone, calculating what would Academy like to see. And then we get movies like Green Book or CODA winning an award, instead of something like Roma or Dune (imho last year was the perfect time for a SF movie to finally win that award as competition was kinda weak).


Of course there is, thinking about betting on them? ;D

I read recently an article on one Croatian news portal and they said that Ukrainians are again favorites (they won the last year's competition as well). Not sure if that ever happened, country winning it two times in a row. Since this is off topic I won't continue further on the subject.

That's interesting.

How do you get this kind of information?, is it public information the way the awards are selected?

I would have thought that they had to watch the movies in order to select the winner, but apparently that's not necessary. But then, how on earth can they choose the best movie if they haven't even watched it...

Of course all this info is public, you can find bunch of articles about it. I am too bored to shared articles and you can easily find them by googling.


Well, theoretically they should watch all of them as they even get copies of the movies sent to them (so called "screeners") but how exactly to enforce that or even test whether they actually watched it or not. So in the end its sort of honor system and I you can imagine how that goes.


Via "eeny, meeny, miny, moe" or maybe they chose the best movie by how much it earned, like one of the members here suggested it should be done. Anything goes really  ;D

I tried finding a lot of movies on Netflix  but most of them are not available in our geographical region
I will have a look through through other movie sites and come back for my opinion

I don't know whether this is general for all countries or only for my country, but a few days ago Netflix changed there T&Cs and now you cannot share an account with multiple familiars. I guess that they control this comparing IPs, so if you have problems because it isn't available in your geographical region, you can try with a VPN, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't work.

His problem is the fact that out of 10 movies nominated for Best Picture award, only All Quiet on the Western Front is available on Netflix so of course he couldn't find many and I don't think that he would find more even if he used VPN to unlock country that has better selection of movies, like US or Canada.

Regarding the password sharing thing, I heard about the changes but so far they haven't enforced it in Croatia but its juts a matter of day. Not a smart move imho, they will lose a lot of customers due that.

Yes they are the favorites of the bookmakers again but I don't think they will win this year, because the singer doesn't look very ukrainian actually and the song is not really good IMO. https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

Tvorchi - Heart of Steel
https://img.youtube.com/vi/q6QFVqWX2gM/0.jpg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6QFVqWX2gM)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6QFVqWX2gM

Have you already seen the croatian entry ?  :D Those guys are really crazy! I love that, I think they can surprise everybody and finish in the top 10.
Well if people are interested and if nobody opens a thread I will do it in the coming days I think.

Let 3 - Mama ŠČ!
https://img.youtube.com/vi/q1-hSh10PB4/1.jpg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1-hSh10PB4)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1-hSh10PB4

Since I am from Croatia of course I heard the song, its the main topic over here. We usually send boring songs, but this is the first time we sent someone as crazy as the guys from Let 3  :D These guys are old rock band that has cult status here and are usually very provocative so something like this was expected from them. They probably even had to tone it down because of Eurovision song contest rules.
 

Hah it doesn't hurt trying but I don't think that there will be much interest as rarely anyone outside of Europe cares about it.

Create the thread! We can do the research and continue the discussions there. This thread will be locked 1 week after the Oscar awards ceremony and it will be better to have a separate thread for different entertainment betting events hehe.

I sent @tyKiwanuka a private message before and asked him if he was creating another thread again for Eurovision but it appears that he was very busy.

Also, it appears that there is another storyline being created. This storyline is more right wing that endorses patriotism and encourages the youth to be recruited to the military. How many of Oscar voters are right wing? Hollywood has gone far left and this is making moderate left wingers appear like moderate right wingers hehehehehe.



“Everything Everywhere All at Once” led the Oscar nominations with 11 and is currently the decisive front-runner to win Best Picture according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing. The question is, what could possibly beat it? Right now Golden Globe champs “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “The Fabelmans” rank second and third, respectively. “Top Gun: Maverick” follows in fourth place, but might we be underestimating the high-flying sequel?

On paper, “Top Gun: Maverick” doesn’t look like your typical Oscar winner. First off, it’s a sequel, and the only sequels that have ever won Best Picture were “The Godfather Part II” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” — and some might not even consider “Return of the King” a sequel in the traditional sense, but rather the completion of a single planned-out story. Second, “Maverick” is a summer blockbuster.

Source https://www.goldderby.com/article/2023/oscars-best-picture-top-gun-maverick/

You can't expect a lot of global interest in a competition where only European nations are competing. But then the question comes about why do you want global audiences for a regional competition? If the song is really good, then it will get fans from all over the globe. I can give a few examples, such as Satellite from Lena (Germany) in 2010, Euphoria by Loreen (Sweden) in 2012 and Heroes by Mans Zelmerlow (Sweden) in 2015. But if the winners are selected for political considerations within Europe, then you can't expect the song to become viral in regions outside the EU.

Since I am not a big fan of Eurovision or betting on it, I think that someone else who od more than involved/interested should open it. I may visit the thread but my betting on it sums up to asking my wife (since she is a fan) which country might win and then putting some money on them.




New Top Gun seems more realistic than that scenario, in which a movie of that type wins a Best Picture Oscar considering how left Hollywood is. :D

Beside that, I liked new Top Gun a lot (imho it's even better than the first one) and I would like seeing it winning an Oscar or two which I think it deserves. We need more of those old school types or movies that use less cgi and more practical effects.

For a while now, it has been turning into a progressive heaven for participants. If you are a lady with beard, or a queer or any lgbt+ member then you are going to get a lot more votes than what your song deserves. We do not have the times of "I am in love with a fairytale" period anymore. And this is coming from someone who supports progressive rights, what we think quite normal today was wrong for people in 60's, black/white marriage was a "sin" according to some people 60 years ago, and normal today, so what some say is wrong or sin today will be normal 60 years from now and I support them. BUT nobody should win if the song is not the best one, that should be only reason to win.

Eurovision has always been a bit colorful though. If you perform there without anything different you're most likely to be ignored, even if your song is "mainstream good".

But yeah, I agree that the contest is a bit political. But, isn't that the whole point of it?, I think it was created to make all European countries get to know each other a bit more, and get together peacefully. It has always been a geopolitical instrument, since the beginning:

Previously televoting had an equal weight as the jury vote and then the political considerations of the jury will not have too much impact on the final results. But they changed the format for voting several times in the last 5-6 years, and now the jury vote has a higher weightage. Even the televoting seems to be having a bias. Check the voting numbers below, and you will find that "friendly" countries (for example, Moldova/Romania, Cyprus/Greece, Ukraine/Azerbaijan) get more votes compared to "unfriendly" countries. So not always, the best song gets most points.

Less cgi and more practical effects might create a good argument on why the voters of the academy awards might choose Top Gun. Avatar is the favorite to win best visual effects, however, with this type of movie for the type of movie goers of the present, cgi is not very amazing anymore. It might also be considered annoying because similar to what you said, we need more movies with practical effects.

In any case, Top Gun is favorite for best sound. I am not quite certain why the Batman is the lowest underdog. The sound effects in the Batman is better than Top Gun, I reckon.

Avatar should really be nominated in "Best Animated Feature Film" category considering how it looks. There's very little live action going there as almost everything has been animated. Yeah I know that every scene was shot with real camera and then animated, but still... This lack of live action is one of the reasons why I didn't like that movie much.


Batman was (at least for me) one of the biggest disappointments last year and I honestly didn't notice that sound was so good ( or anything else in that movie). While on the other hand Top Gun is the epitome of a guilty pleasure. :D

Goin back on Oscars, did something happened to Fabelmans that they dropped this much in odds? I think that was a good movie and for some reason it is not seen as good. In any case, the best picture hasn't mean anything for a while now, which one would you rather be, the one that got a billion dollars in box office, or the one that won the Oscars?

I know that it matters in a reputation sense, and you will live a good life if you win, but that doesn't mean that you should be making a buck, it could mean that you barely made even, or maybe not even that. This is why if I was a producer then I would rather produce a movie that made a billion dollars, not one that won the Oscars if I have to choose between them.

You should watch it again hehe. I also had the same feeling on the first viewing. The second viewing was much better. I had a similar experience with the movie Tenet, however, what it needed was to have the subtitles on to understand what the actors were saying hehehehe.

On Batman for best sound, it had good sound mixing and editing. It was the mood setter of the movie and relied more on it because the movie was always in a dark setting of the night and the day was usually in a grey setting. The car chase scene was very good.

I am quite surprised with this post. I checked the odds at Stake.com, and I coudn't find any big change. The current odds for best picture are as follows:

Best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.38
The Banshees of Inisherin: 4.00
Top Gun: Maverick: 13.00
The Fabelmans: 14.00
Tár: 36.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 31.00
Women Talking: 81.00
Elvis: 81.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 81.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

For the previous odds, check these:

Situation didn't change much compared to few weeks ago, but it was when you look at the odds when @bbc.reporter started this topic couple of months ago and that's what he was probably referring to.


It is a legit question though as I am not really sure  what caused The Fabelmans odds going so much up. I understand those were very early odds (even before nominations went out) but still it is a big change while movie won some important awards & 7 Oscar nominations. An obvious answer would be that odds simply went up because Everything Everywhere All At Once became a big favorite to win (and how that happened is even bigger mystery for me).

If we were to talk about "how much right wing votes can top gun get?" then we need to look at how right wing oriented Hollywood is, and we can clearly say that they are not, not even a little bit, they are pretty left wing and will continue to do so. Hell Robert De Niro said fuck trump right on award season when millions were watching and everyone clapped, that's the group we are talking about.

Doesn't matter to me considering I didn't like him neither, but it also means top gun is not going to win something because of any political reasons. It was however a good movie, and they shot so much of the flying for real, Tom Cruise literally flew the planes, that's insane! I think they can win by their own merit if they are lucky.

At the end of the day awards are just what a group of people think about something or someone.

It doesn't really matter in the end, it's all just a show to make money, on top of the money they're making with the movie itself.

It's all just entertainment.

Idk, I never thought The Fabelmans had a chance. When I first saw Everything Everywhere All at Once, I said, "This film will get an Oscar for the Best picture!".  I said "first" because by now I've seen it 3 times. But then I saw Triangle of Sadness, and my heart melted. Saw it 4 times, and going to see more. I think these two movies have an equal chance, but in this situation it is better, of course, to bet on the latter, considering 101.00 odds.

Actually, I saw all the movies nominated for Best picture(except Avatar) and most of the others, so I'll be back to this thread, I love this time of year, when you can bet on Oscars! :)

True, but their choices affect movie industry more than you think because other adjust and produce movies based on what's popular or what might win an award. So when producers see that specific type of movies have higher chances of winning a Best Picture Oscar, they will start producing more of those and won't take risks which in the end is bad for us consumers.


If what you are saying is true, that means bookies made a huge mistake by giving such a high odds on Triangle of Sadness. To me its one of the better movies of the last year (and I really enjoyed seeing Croatian actor Zlatko Buric aka Dimitry as I haven';t seen him in anything good for many years) but if that one wins, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever and somehow I don't see it happening since there's no buzz around it. The movie I think deserved Best Picture nominations but for some reason didn't end up getting one is Aftersun (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt19770238/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_4). 

Yes, I saw a few clip of the top gun movie on TikTok. It shows that they didn't use a CGI there or green screens but tom did actually hang on a real plane and it was moving upwards though it has a harness (obviously) and maybe a parachute just in case something goes wrong. I haven't seen a clip where it flew/drive a plane but if that was also done for real then that's epic.

However tom already have some experience because he also play the same role in the first top gun movie which was released on 1986, and maybe he also own a plane because he is a rich guy. Even if they don't win, I think they still remain a winner on the hearts of many people.

I think you got a little bit confused because what you just described (Tom Cruise hanging off the plane while its taking off) was from Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elpUGB9Ap1Y), and not the latest Top Gun. That scene is crazy though and just shows how dedicated (and crazy) he is.


He does own several planes and while he was not allowed by military to fly F18 in the latest Top Gun, he flew for real his own P-51 Mustang in the movie. As a matter of fact, all main actors were actually in the plane and controlling the cameras doing action scenes and that tells you how much effort has been put into this movie. Just for that I would like it to win a couple of technical Oscars because we really need more of that old school approach and less CGI crap.

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article. (https://variety.com/2023/film/global/bafta-film-awards-2023-winners-1235528454/)

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

I haven't seen All Quiet On The Western Front yet, but I'm reading a bit about it and it seems well deserved.

It's a story written by a World War I German veteran, so it means that it has a potential to be a great movie.

Seeing that it won multiple awards it makes me think that it's probably a great movie, so they seem to have executed the task up to the standard.

I'm probably going to end up watching it at some point, seems promising.

I guess it would have made sense to bet for that one.

All Quiet On The Western Front has also won the best adapted screenplay category in Bafta and changed the odds from 3.45 to 2.84 in coinplay.com. For best picture their win in Bafta changed the odds from 34.00 to 27.00.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2434063-academy-awards-2023

If you are a supporter for All Quiet On The Western Front, wait for the final voting of the academy members on March 2 to March 7. I am quite certain that there will be leaks of information and it will show another change in the odds. If All Quiet has another reduction of odds, we can speculate that the Hollywood agenda is presently an antiwar agenda hehehe.

All quiet on the Western Front is one of a kind. I have seen many reviews on Youtube and they definitely deserve the award. I will definitely spend this weekend watching this movie. It is a true anti-war film compared to the previous (Dunkirk, Saving Private Ryan). The Ukranian-Russian war is just one of several global conflicts. In these chaotic times, we need a video like this to remind us of war's futility and peace's beauty.

Since you keep speculating that Hollywood might push anti-war agenda this year, did you bet on All Quiet yet before odds go more down? Btw, its interesting to see that Everything Everywhere All at Once won only 1 BAFTA so I am glad that Brits (like me) weren't impressed with that movie. :D


Its hardly one of a kind since there's at least two earlier versions of the same movie.

I can see cinematography going to AQOTWF because that really has some great ones, there is no doubt about that and I would give them that. But the best movie? Really? I do not think that it was the best movie at all, I do not think that it was even in the top two for me, hell probably top three.

I would rank The Fabelmans and everything everywhere all at once, and the whale as my top three in no particular order at this moment. That really feels like the top three for most people as well. In any case, just because a movie won the BAFTA, doesn't mean they are getting the Oscars, I think that is as irrelevant as it could get. We are going to see one of that three win the Oscar.

If you don't think that All Quiet on the Western Front wouldn't be a worthy winner, what would you say about the last year's winner CODA (an average remake of an already average french movie made few years earlier)? Even better, take a look at the last 10-15 winners and name me a few that will be remembered in a few decades as great movies? Just to add that its not the best movie of the last year for me neither, but it wouldn't be undeserved if it wins in the end as we had far worse movies winning in the past.


Of course it doesn't and I don't think that anyone said that. All it does is affects the odds slightly and that's about it.

I watched this movie on netflix and without a doubt it is a great war movie, right from the beginning of the movie we see a lot of action, soldiers with helmets, boots and weapons running and being hit by the enemy, honestly it is a sad picture of war, me when I watch these movies, I think about how far human beings go in their quest for power, how far human ambition and greed go, there are parts of the movie that shocked me, for example, they remove the robes and boots of dead soldiers, then they wash their clothes and get dressed. if any repairs were needed, they would take the clothes to be repaired and then give these clothes to other soldiers to wear

It is a portrait of the horror of war, in the part where I saw the motivation speech of the Germans it was something unbelievable, they were simply in a different world from ours, they believed that any excitement or indecision was to be a traitor to the country, without a doubt that this movie deserved to win

No! I underestimated the effect of winning Bafta on the oddsmakers' decisions. The day after the announcements of winners of Bafta, the odds went from 34.00 to 27.00 in Coinplay. In Sportsbet it went from 30.00 to 17.00. I thought that I can wait for my next signature payment and deposit in Coinplay to bet the 27.00 odds. I looked at the odds again and it is only presently on 7.45! I will still bet this! This is the type of odds changes that happened on Coda. I will also bet on best adapted screenplay and best sound for All Quiet.

Big part for that odds drop is due the fact that All Quiet won the most awards and that's something that barely anyone expected. I kinda expected 1917 winning many awards few years ago (it was their movie after all and it also won 7), I didn't expect so many awards for this one. I guess Brits are fan of war movies.


While odds on Coda were initially very high (~26  after nominations were released), few days before the ceremony odds dropped to only ~2 and Power Of The Dog was a slight favorite with ~1.8. I will wait a little bit more to see how situation develops and if odds keep dropping sharply I might bet on it so another CODA doesn't happen to me. :P

I think if Triangle of Sadness wins, bookies will payout from the money placed on other pictures, so they will not lose anything anyway. :)

As for the probability of it winning in the Best Picture category, of course it's not that high, but definitely much more than 1%. Remember Parasite winning the Oscar for the Best Picture 3 years ago? To me Triangle of Sadness is a similar film, criticizing the rich and the poor in an amazingly funny manner.


I watched Aftersun and I liked it, but not to the extent other movie fans(including you) did. I feel like I missed something important. So, I downloaded the screenplay and reading it right now to better understand what Charlotte Wells wanted to say with her film.

Btw, look at the odds for Paul Mescal in the Best Actor category:

https://i.imgur.com/q9BoHU7.png

He was recognized by many for his outstanding performance in Aftersun, and I think he deserves a bet on him, especially with those odds.

Huge jump for All Quiet on the Western Front in Stake.com. Odds jumped from 31.00 to 8.00. Here are the latest odds for best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.36
The Banshees of Inisherin: 6.75
Top Gun: Maverick: 12.00
The Fabelmans: 17.00
Tár: 31.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 8.00
Women Talking: 101.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 81.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

There are similarities in the subject of those movies, but while Triangle of Sadness is a total underdog with not a good chances for a win, Parasite was the 2nd favorite (the only one ahead was 1917) that before Oscar won a couple of BAFTA and Golden Globe awards so it already had a decent resume. I might be totally wrong here, but I see Parasite winning was in part of compensation for Roma not winning an award the previous year and making it the first non-English spoken movie that won Best Picture award. Don't get me wrong, it is a quality movie and deserving winner (albeit for me the best one that year was probably The Marriage Story) but South Koreans made better ones in previous years that unfortunately weren't recognized.



He did a very good job and these are the good odds, but they are so high for a reason. For me personally Colin Farrel did the best job while I still haven't seen The Whale (it became available today on torrents so I'll probably watch it in the next few days) and since I like the odds (~6) I will go for him.

@nullama although obviously it is to get information to choose a bet, I think the point is always to have that winning bet with friends and family, I think there is no event where you can do it like in the Oscars, since sports betting is always, e.g. , in my case very solitary, to the click of the computer or to the pulse of the finger, which is the most normal, and there are no predictions to share.

On the other hand (OT), I never watch foreign films before the Oscars, and then unless they win something I encourage myself to see them, I remember Parasite at the time, but! I saw a wonderful movie once again, "All Quiet On The Western Front," I've seen it, it's one of those movies that if they give me a spoiler I would "kill" whoever did it.  ;)

Exceptional, in fact, I don't watch war movies, I think those of us who have lived for more than 30 years have seen the story told a thousand times and at least in my case, I don't want any more of these stories, BUT! in fact the harshness of this film, I think it's raised to the 64th power, amazing, the story of protagonist "hooks/catch" you, it involves us, it makes us suffer, it makes us dodge bullets, it makes us scream; run, hide, be careful... makes us say "please don't die".

I think that given the other nominated films, there is a high chance that a foreign film will win the Oscars again, which would reaffirm it that European productions in general have an excellent level.

I watched the movie and the film producers found the right balance between the modern requirements the average audience has to day, and the reality that this is a movie taking place in 1917. It is not this overly polished loaded with special effects Hollywood thing, but at the same time modern enough to make it a great film that is well received by an audience that has now long been spoiled by high end overloaded and unrealistic productions. That job was well done.

Have fun watching it!

I speculate that it might drop more after the Oscar votes are completed on March 2 to March 7. If All Quiet's odds become only 3.50 or lower, we can assume that the a antiwar agenda in Hollywood is real hehehe. This is certainly a good movie for it because it ended with the German soldiers not wanting to go back on the field anymore after being given their last orders by their uncaring leaders and generals.

You should bet with me while the odds remain to be quite good. Do not wait for the leaks to arrive after March 7 heheehe.

https://i.postimg.cc/R0Rg3mJ1/6-C073888-3261-4-A6-D-8-BB6-9399-E4153-DBF.jpg

Thanks for sharing the winners of the BAFTA awards! "All Quiet On The Western Front" seems to have done exceptionally well at the BAFTAs, winning seven awards including Best Film and Best Director. It will be interesting to see whether this success translates to the Oscars. Interestingly, the movie received harsh criticism from German critics, who found fault with its simplistic adaptation of a cherished literary classic and its historical inaccuracies. Additionally, Netflix has been accused of turning the movie into an "Oscar-bait" war spectacle, though some speculate this is all part of a savvy marketing tactic.

Its definitely possible, I just checked the https://m.nicerodds.co.uk/academy-award and I think that odds on Everything Everywhere All At Once dropped slightly, which is a good thing for all those betting on All Quiet.


Warning, spoiler: Hm didn't movie ended in a total opposite way, by that officer sending bunch of soldiers into last battle just before armistice started, causing more unnecessary deaths?


Some people keep forgetting that there is a difference between movies and documentaries and war/history movies are rarely accurate and usually contain some fiction, even if they were an adaption of a novel like in this case. I would also like if movie followed the novel more closely as I think some scenes would make movie better, but that's just how it goes with adaptations and movies are never as good as the novels they are based on.

Regarding movie being an Oscar bait, I didn't really have that feeling while watching so I googled it a little bit to see what others said about it and I found one harsh critic accusing movie exactly of that, and then as an example of a good war movie he mentioned Fury (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2713180/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0), which is one of the worst war movies I've seen.

Just to add that for me it isn't even in a top 3 among the nominated ones, but I wouldn't mind if it wins a Best Picture Oscar since that would mean that Everything Everywhere All At Once didn't win it .  :D

Damn, you could have warned us with a "spoiler alert" before sharing that information!  :D


Yeah, I agree. I mean, I liked "Fury" because it has a good storyline (at least in the first part) and some impressive cinematography, but let's be real, the movie's rating wouldn't be nearly as high if it wasn't for Brad Pitt's name in the cast.

Everything Everywhere Ive seen and wasnt that impressed enough to think it a favorite by this amount.   I get its popular but outstandingly different is not the impression I had, might be missing something there but for the moment I will guess the others have a better chance then is currently rated.  Western front seems quite possible, still not sure yet.

Oh ffs, I am really sorry, I edited it now. I am usually very careful with these kind of things and I this was a total brainfart. /facepalm

I saw a trailer of this movie some few days back while watching a movie on my cable TV, and i particularly loved it and was going to search for it on the internet and download, but I later forget, coming here right now and seeing this comment took my mind back to it.\
Though I am yet to watch this movie in full, from the trailer I saw, I could tell it was a very beautiful movie and one the entire citizens of the world could learn a lot from, and i also agree that this movie indeed, deserve the award it got.
i will download this movie tonight and watch over the weekend.

I feel that I'm starting to read a few spoilers of this movie, so I might as well go and watch it soon  ;D

Seems to be one of those great movies that you always remember about them, a classic let's say.

We'll see how it is. Very promising though

That is very true. The director of Parasite himself, Bong Joon Ho, made several movies that, in my opinion, are among the best movies of all times. My personal favorites are Memories of Murder (2003) and Mother (2009), but I know that movie fans and film critics adore his other movies too. Park Chan-wook, Kim Ki-duk, Park Hoon-jung, all of them deserved Oscar, and when Parasite won the Oscar for Best Picture, to me it was the recognition of all Korean films I loved so much.


Colin Farrel did a great job in The Banshees of Inisherin, and, imo, his chances are not lower than Paul Mescal's. Only the odds, 6.37 for Colin Farrel and 33.32 for Paul Mescal, make me bet on the latter.

And I saw The Whale two days ago, and I think Brendan Fraser is the one with the best chances, and I have zero doubts about The Whale winning in the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category.

Shouldn't you at least watch a movie before you make such assumption? Time will tell, but I don't see this version becoming classic even if it wins Best Picture Oscar. It is a good movie, but its not that good or groundbreaking (like 1930 version was) was eventually deserve that status.


Memories of Murder is probably my favorite South Korean movie (Oldboy is very close at the 2nd place) and 2000s were probably the best decade of South Korean cinema. Even though they still make quality stuff (for example an excellent Burning (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7282468/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0) that is made year before Parasite and is imho even a better movie), I feel like there is a slight drop in the amount of quality movies they made in the recent years.

Although many critics predicted that All Quiet on the Western Front would be nominated for the best international feature, it exceeded expectations by also receiving nominations in eight other categories, including best picture. Personally, I believe that this epic war drama is the most deserving of the best picture award. I recently watched the movie and was thoroughly impressed. The film effectively portrays the atrocities of war and offers a strong anti-war message, making it a top contender for the Oscar this year, imho.

Yeah, absolutely.

It has the potential since everyone seems to speak highly of it. But of course I'll watch it first and form my personal opinion about it.

The thing is that you can't really watch all the movies so you need some kind of pre-selection, and this movie has a great pre-selection. That's what I meant by that  ;D

I was not implying that the soldiers did not go. I was saying that they did not want to go anymore. They were demoralized, however, their leaders and generals were insensitive and uncaring. There was also the agreed time when the war should end that made going back on the field appear useless. But they went because they are forced to follow orders.

This will be the Hollywood agenda. To make everyone more aware of this war between Russia versus Ukraine and to cause us to ask what is the real purpose of this. I am quite certain the purpose is not for the people. It is for those leaders from both countries who will make direct and indirect profits from it politically and financially.

It appears the effect of All Quiet's victory in Bafta might be starting to disappear hehe. The odds for the movie is presently sitting on 10.00 from where I have placed my bet in coinplay.com on 7.42.

If on March 7 there are no more changes on the odds, I will accept reality and accept that Everything, Everywhere All At Once will be the winner for the best picture.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2434063-academy-awards-2023/159565631-academy-awards-2023-best-picture-winner

I would rate Korean crime movies much higher than any other language films in this genre. In case of Memories of Murder, the story is based on real life incidents, about the crimes committed by serial killer Choon-jae Lee. In real life, Lee murdered around two dozen people, and was arrested when he raped and murdered his sister-in-law. The tragic fact is that a number of innocent South Koreans were detained and tortured by the police while investigating the murders. Lee was convicted only when the DNA test results were made available, two decade after the crimes.

There are several other Korean crime movies which I found to be of high quality. I Saw the Devil is my all-time favorite (although it is more like a revenge movie rather than a murder mystery movie). A few other recommendations from me are Midnight, A Hard Day and Confession.

I don't know what happened but last time I checked (no more than few days ago) Everything Everywhere All At Once was at ~1.4 and now suddenly dropped below 1.10 making it a bad bet in my opinion. So I think that's why All Quiet On The Western Front odds went up so much. 

So, I finally saw the Whale and while Brendan Fraser did a very good job indeed (I would also say that its only part of the movie that was really good), I still prefer Colin Farrell performance.

You are most likely right, my friend. Everything Everywhere All at Once is an amazing film, and if it gets the Oscar for the Best Picture, it will be well deserved. I'm not betting on it now because of the odds:

https://i.imgur.com/pEUmMmu.png

but I did bet on it in December, long before the Academy Award nominees were announced:

https://i.imgur.com/yqsoVrr.png

and the odds were 7.35 for this movie. :)

I also bet on Michelle Yeoh winning the Best Actress

https://i.imgur.com/9nhNDON.png

with much better odds than today. My bets were very small, but it's never about the money for me, and so I will be very happy if it turns out I was right. :)

@Betwrong. Why are you not sharing this? We also like to win some cryptocoins like you hehehehe. From the odds you are showing everyone, did you place your bet before this thread was created? The odds for Everything Everywhere was 2.50 in coinplay.com and it was 3.50 in sportsbet.io when I created this thread.

I reckon the last chance of All Quiet is on March 7. If odds do not reduce to 5.00, I reckon Everything Everywhere is a certainty to win the award for the best movie and the Hollywood agenda is not antiwar hehe.

We are less than two weeks away from the announcement.

I agree with the statement from Rifakip. In Stake.com, the odds for Everything Everywhere All At Once are given at 1.09. It doesn't make any sense to bet on this film.

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.09
The Banshees of Inisherin: 13.00
Top Gun: Maverick: 19.00
The Fabelmans: 31.00
Tár: 51.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 10.00
Women Talking: 151.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 101.00
Triangle of Sadness: 151.00

For best director, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are favorites at 1.08, while for best actor and actress, the favorites are Brendan Fraser (1.51) and Michelle Yeoh (1.79).

Best actor and actress:

Fraser, Brendan is the easiest bet to go with 1.49
Cate Blanchett for the Movie TAR seems not Michelle Yeoh anymore that's leading.  1.79
It's a 2hour movie with less than 80% review. I have not seen it but it's nominated. I read the synopsis and the story isn't quite unique, it's the drama that counts for being the best in acting the roles though.

It was a crime on my part, both against humankind and against myself, because I'd love to start posting in this thread earlier. Somehow I missed it.


I just asked a nice girl, Ariel, from Sportsbet.io support, https://i.imgur.com/LXRoI4N.png, providing her with the bet id, and she told me the exact date:

https://i.imgur.com/fmgtEY2.png


Why do you think so? Why March 7?

I rewatched All Quiet yesterday, and loved the film even more. Regarding "antiwar", idk, it's more "anti aggression" to me, so,  although I adore Everything Everywhere, and will be very happy if it wins, I think  All Quiet has a good chance too, imo.

@Betwrong. The final voting for the Oscar awards this year are done on March 2 to March 7 and very much similar to the years before, there are some leaks in information that the oddmakers can collect and change the odds correspondingly.

In any case, the odds did not change. I am quite certain Everything Everywhere will win the Oscar for best picture. I speculate the Hollywood agenda this year is forget everything, enjoy your life heehehe.

So the voting will end by today. And we will get to know the results by next week. I will be happy if Everything Everywhere All at Once wins the Oscar for best film. This is a film that collected more than $100 million from the global box-office. So at least this year, we will have an agreement between the general public and the Oscar jury (i.e the 8,000 or so members of the Academy) for the choice of best picture. Will be an added sweetener if Michelle Yeoh ends up with the Oscar for best actress. And also, there is a good chance that Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert may win the award for best director.

BTW odds haven't changed. Everything Everywhere All at Once remains as the overwhelming favorite at 1.10 in Stake.com. All Quiet on the Western Front is at 11.00, while Fablemans has odds of 31.00.

Besides the betting on the possible winners of this year.
Is anyone else expecting to see if something wacky and crazy happens during the night of the awards this year?  :)

I have read around the internet there was a 50% boost on the viewers, and a huge increase on the interest for the Oscars, because of what happened with Will Smith a year ago.

Knowing how desperate some organizers can get for relevance and viewers, this year there could be some unexpected "accidents" as well.  ;)

I thought it's about constant fighting for understanding between generations and between people in general, but, well, maybe it's because I'm living in the midst of the war for the last year I see fighting even in movies. Now I think it's both, and you are right too. :)


Cate Blanchett has some good chances to win the prize, but I'm rooting for Michelle Yeoh. To me she played like dozens of roles in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and played all of them great.

I don't think that incident with Will Smith and Chris Rock was planned, so I don't expect anything like that happening this year neither. Well, at least not organized by Academy but I doubt any actor would want to follow Smith's steps considering all the consequences (10 years ban from Oscars, movies delayed) that seriously affected his career.

Difficult to take a side in the confrontation between Will Smith and Chris Rock. But in the end, it was Will Smith who ended up on the losing side. Rock is someone who didn't had anything to lose and actually he provoked Smith for some cheap publicity. But overall, it left a bad taste for the viewers like me who were watching the event live. And I can see that Rock hasn't stopped his provocations. A few days back, he starred in a Netflix special, in which he mocked and made fun of Will Smith. He even ridiculed Smith's role in Emancipation.

Dunno, for me it wasn't hard to take a side because Smith is obviously wrong there and there is no excuse for his behavior. But since he was insecure and wanted to appear "man" in his wife's eyes (while she is having affairs with other men lol), he did that stupid thing were he end up looking even more pathetic.



That's what comedians do and that's why the are often hosts in these ceremonies and if you think that what Rock said is bad, what would you say then about Rickey Gervais and his Golden Globes bits? If comedians can't take jokes, who can?

You reminded me of that incident which was one of the unique unforgettable event in Oscar history. Even almost year have gone by, but the debate is still on as whether this was a planned action or it happened in reality. No one has a definite answer for this.

Yes, the hype of oscar is there and i am sure this incident will be discussed in one way or another in 2023 Oscar award.

For those who haven't seen this, here you can watch on youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4t1CC7-UFE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4t1CC7-UFE)

I don't think it's fair to assume that Chris Rock's actions were motivated solely by a desire for cheap publicity. After all, he is a comedian and it's his job to use humor to comment on current events and popular culture. Humor and satire are important parts of our cultural discourse, it's important to recognize that, and I believe he was hired for that reason. While some may have found his jokes about Will Smith and his wife distasteful, it's possible that they were not intended to be mean-spirited or hurtful. Regarding the Netflix special, I haven't seen it myself, so I can't speak to whether or not Rock's jokes about Smith were in poor taste.

And let's be real here, when you physically attack someone in front of millions of people, it's pretty unlikely that you'll get a lot of support - no matter what the occasion. So, I think it's safe to say that Smith definitely deserved the backlash he received for that one.

It was highly unusual thing to do, obviously he lost his temper but a slap is hardly an extreme for censure especially.    Oscars should thank him for the publicity raised as some commentators have noted Oscars have lost their lead advantage to other ceremonies and awards for relevance.  I know the Oscars is often largely guided by the most dominant theme at that time in society, the war in Europe would seem relevant, refugee plight and so on possibly.  Any film related to those topics might do better, I guessed Hopkins in his last Oscar win would do better because senior dementia has been of some highlight recently.

The justification given by Will Smith is that Chris Rock made offensive comments about the appearance of his wife, Jada Pinkett Smith. He made comments regarding her hair, and Smith was offended because Jada's hair loss condition resulted from a medical issue (Alopecia). Anyway, I believe that both the sides are wrong here. No one should make fun of medical conditions, and at the same time, it is not civilized manner to respond by slapping people who make such comments. Anyway, hopefully this year's award ceremony will be devoid of such incidents.

Perhaps it was not planned but the Academy may realize that the drama sells, and even though Will Smith got "punished" for losing control during the awards.
The organizers of the event know that people has gotten more interest in the Oscars, since the incident last year. they could feel tempted to keep the interest going somehow.

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Anyone aware of Chris Rock's performances (and other host's performances) would have expected some jokes on other's during the Oscars. If they wanted something different, then they should have had someone else on the stage.

Back when all this happened,by the way, I was confused, because at first Will laughed at the joke (his wife was not) and then he decided to step up and slap Chris...

Was that the movie's storyline hehehe? What I saw immediately was the LGBTQ agenda and on a conservative Asian family hehe. The messaging has become stronger and it is being displayed everywhere. I am not against LGBTQ, however, the methods used by the creators of movies and television series are forcing it on us already. This is not good, I reckon.

In any case, you have made good bet. It appears that the Oscars voters have again chosen a happy movie this year.

Here in India, a lot of hype was generated after the song "Naatu Naatu" got shortlisted. And there is a good chance that it may win the Oscar for best original song. This time the media is also covering the Oscars with a lot of interest, since the song got shortlisted. The song is taken out from the Indian film RRR, which was a grand success at the box office when it was released. The last time an Indian entry won the Oscar was way back in 2009, when AR Rahman won the award for best song (Jai Ho from the movie Slumdog Millionaire).

That name of the film that won over a decade ago brought back memories of an Indian having a major role in an Oscar winning film.
Had not even heard of this film RRR being nominated before so thank you for mentioning it because after just doing a quick search, it does look like an interesting watch.
I like these type of period pieces and having it set in India makes it that much more intriguing to audiences here in North America.

The only film I had seen was Everything Everywhere All At Once on the list of nominees for this years Academy Awards.
Only because it was on a streaming service so no necessity to go to the theater for about a year now.
Probably will just wait for Avatar way of water to drop on there as well.

Chris handled it well though. He didn't retaliate but continued the hosting. I say Oscar is the kind of gathering where it's normal to joke around and smile even when the joke isn't as pleasant as you want. Smith acted as if Chris doesn't joke that much even then.


It can't be a happy movie when a conspiracy theorist comes to spoil it all because Michelle Yeoh is Chinese. Some of them are already claiming they own the NBA, but now also Hollywood?   Kidding  ;D

I'm also kind of looking into the agenda of movies including the war and zombie movies seem to be sending a message to us all.

I think it's clear that Rock did nothing wrong, it's just a joke and comedians should not be punched for just making a joke. Look I understand never wanting to see someone because of a joke, or I understand boycotting him, if you feel strongly about it, do not give him your money, or even tweet about how he is not a good person or something, I think it's called "cancelling" these days, back in the day we called it boycotting. If enough people do it and agree with you, they won't earn more money.

But Chris Rock did nothing of sorts, hell he just sold his latest set to netflix, which is why I highly doubt that he was wrong, it wasn't even 99% will smith, 1% rock, it was 100% will smiths fault.

It was absolutely not planned at all.

Chris Rock was so surprised but he managed to keep it cool. He was actually about to say a comeback but wisely stopped and said nothing.

The complete opposite to Will Smith who basically exploded and ruined the rest of his career in a few minutes where he lost complete control of himself.

It's like one of the surest things that will happen during the 95th Academy Awards: Naatu Naatu winning the Oscar for best original song. I like the song, and the scene overall, and I'm proud that it was shot in Kyiv, the city where I live, the city I love more than any other place in the world.

https://i.imgur.com/0Hlzv9Y.png

See the building on the background? It's the Mariinskyi Palace, the official residence of the President of Ukraine. It is in the city center, and since there's a nice park around it, every Kyivan was around at least a couple of times.

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The ceremony is just around the corner

https://i.imgur.com/vWuzhCF.png

Make your last bets, guys. And good luck! :)

I agree, it was 100% honest reaction and not something that was planned. I still think that it made no sense at all and to react like that to a joke is beyond bonkers. I used to love Will Smith so much, he used to be like an idol to me and he talked about how hard work was the most important thing.

I love his quote "if me and you go on a threadmill together, either you are getting off first, or I am dying", it shows that there is a higher limit to humans than humans care to accept, and I agreed with that a lot. After this incident, and people started talking about other things that he did, which highlighted all his bad sides, I realized he wasn't as good of a person as I thought he might be.

Well, people are complicated.

And every humans has different parts of a human inside them, they are good and evil in the same person. There's no 100% good person, or 100% bad person, each person is capable of inflicting pain to other and to love others.

Judging someone for one specific action is not really that wise, although it's a popular thing to do.

The Oscar Award ceremony is just a few hours away. Have you decided on your top picks yet? It's time to start making some tough choices! Which films and performances have truly resonated with you this year? Will your picks align with the Academy's choices, or will there be some surprises?

So, grab some popcorn, sit back, and let's see who takes home the coveted golden statuettes.  ;)

In the context of an open relationship it made sense, his first reaction was to laugh it off but the joke was not anything close to polite, it was a real low blow.  Personally I see no problem with his extreme objection but a slap officially counts as violence which means it wasn't really anything that could have been planned or will be repeated this year in any way but yea it was nothing that made sense at the time so I first thought it was a joke of some kind.   No side bet for extreme repeat exists that Ive seen sadly :p

So it seems Guillermo del Toro got his third Oscar for his animated movie "Pinocchio".
I have not seen it yet, but I am aware of how work intensive can stop-motion movies be, for the sake of the spectacular results. So I am almost sure it is a well deserved award for Mr. Del Toro and his team.

Of course, congratulations for those who predicted Del Toro's win and got some money off that bet.  :)

At the end of the day the person that loses his cool and acts violently will always lose in the eyes of the world.

It doesn't really matter if they're right or wrong. If they react violently then they lose already.

Chris Rock actually ended up being the winner here because he kept his cool and carried on taking the high ground. He was about to reply something but didn't because he knew it was better not to react.

Will Smith reacted so poorly that he lost his whole career in that event.

All Quiet On The Western Front won 2 awards already for best cinematography and best foreign movie. I did not hear antiwar speeches except from the speech of the best documentary awardees hehe.

Also, the president of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences went on stage. She is Chinese. This removes all my hopes that All Quiet might win heheehe. Best picture will go to the movie with many Chinese actors Everything Everywhere.

@nullama. There is a Netflix special from Chris Rock's stand up comedy. He talks about the truth about what he speculates why Will Smith slapped him hehe.

Wow! I am surprised the song Naatu Naatu won best song for the Oscar being the first nominated movie from India to receive it on their first try.
Right before the performance of the song the announcer mentioned it was viewed over 123 million times. Which to me was hard to believe as I never heard of it before seeing it mentioned here first on forum.

The one I had high hopes to win best picture is still Everything Everywhere All at Once since they had the most nominations from the academy at 11.
With Michelle Yeoh winning best actress since her fellow acting partner won best supporting actor already, Ke Huy Quan.
Haven't seen him in a film in a very long time. I remember him as Data from the adventure 80's movie and also in Indiana Jones as Shortrun for his first role.

It was absolutely a well deserved award, and it was one of the most predictable Oscars too. :) Last time I checked, about 12 hours ago, the odds for Guillermo del Toro's  winning Animated Feature Oscar were 1.01.

I've seen the movie, and it's a masterpiece. No wonder that apart from Oscars it's got another 69 wins & 118 nominations. 1h 57min of total enjoyment awaits you, my friend. :)


You were joking, right? :)

But for someone who might not know I'll say that the president of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences can't impact the outcome other than by voting with her single vote, as well as thousands of other academy members.

I generally don't agree with Academy when it comes to Best Picture winners (looking back at the last ~15 years, the only time I actually agreed with them was Nomadland), this is the first time I disliked the winner so much I couldn't even finish it and probably won't even give it a 2nd chance. Kudos to Everything Everywhere All at Once though, not an easy feat to win 7 Oscars, especially not for movie with smaller production.

Biggest surprise for me was that The Banshees of Inisherin didn't win a single Oscar. While I knew that Colin Farrell beating Brendan Fraser is unlikely (even though i preferrede Colin's performance), I still hoped for at least for Best Original Screenplay but I guess since movie didn't have any woke bs, chances to win anything were slim to none.  

Needless to say I failed miserably at betting because I went for those who I though should win, not for those who I thought would probably win. :D

You are 100% right if you ask me. The movie was a terrible one and Oscars are getting worse and worse gradually, the party itself and the entertainment it provides still holds if you ask me, all the talks beforehand, all the speeches, all the funny moments that happens they are all great in my book, but the actual movies and the winners? Absolutely horrible.

This year the one I agree with so much was Brendan Fraser who won the best actor category, that dude was awesome in the movie and I agree that he deserved to win, and after such a long time being absent from the big name list, he is finally back again and that means so much to me because I loved him growing up.

I'm not a psychologist, but in my opinion the reaction (something unacceptable) will smith is the reaction of a person who is suffering a lot inside but wants to ignore the problem, in this case I think the guy has many depcoes that the woman brings him but because he wanted to live off appearances he didn't face the problem and since chris rock made a joke about his wife, at that time he behaved like a protector of the woman thinking that with that he would keep up appearances, but he didn't think about the consequences that this would bring

now what I think about the reaction after that is that it was a very exaggerated reaction, they shouldn't have punished him like that, I say that because we can all see that American society does not have good moral values, they are not a good example for anyone, Is something obvious that, all actors have or have had many women, lovers, and most actors have already been involved with drugs and alcohol addiction, so why punish them so severely when they are all the best examples?

because they simply didn't give him a fine and told him to apologize and that was it, the subject would be closed, will smith has good films, it wasn't fair to harm the guy in that way, I even think that some saw an opportunity to destroy the guy, because certain things of punishments against him were not normal, they were very unfair and exaggerated

Does that make it ok to hit someone though? I mean just because others are bad, should holywood let a global bad act to be ok as well? I think what you are looking for is the reverse, we should punish will smith, but also punish anyone else who did something bad. If you are allowing other people to be bad, and then saying will smith should also be bad is not the solution to fixing any of this problem. I think they are not as bad as you imagine, but in the end even if they were, that doesn't justify what will smith did and that is why the punishment was definitely good, in fact a life time ban should be alright, doesn't seem like someone who punches another person at the oscars should ever be in oscars as an example.

lol what? Dude you're completely wrong and misinformed.  "I say that because we can all see that American society does not have good moral values, they are not a good example for anyone"  This is one of the most ignorant statements I've ever read.  You have no idea what you're talking about.  If anything being a progressive country shows just the opposite...unlike the insanity that much of east portrays in their outdated ideals.

Will Smith was banned from the Oscars for 10 years first off.  Secondly, it was up to Chris Rock whether or not he wanted to pursue legal action and he chose not to.  Will Smith was wrong, and deserved his punishment. 

You're all over the place with what you're saying here.

Will Smith acted irrationally but I still have more respect for him then the scummy comments Chris Rock or anyone similar would throw at someone for medical conditions they have no control over, that is the real rat on the stage in that moment.  An angry man throwing a slap is almost admirable in comparison and now he has to take the hit and any losses for his action but if I was in that business I'd support and respect him at least somewhat for just a basic normal human reaction and he was controlled enough that it was a slap not a punch.  Dont do it but would I criticize that man, no way would I tbh.

Congrats to those that won, some who have been waiting and trying their best for years so that was nice to see in that respect.    Somehow I did bet this film to get awards, just because the odds were decent for that outcome so I put on a small amount but I didnt have high confidence in it occuring so not a big win.

It appears the Oscars have been looking for movies with happy endings for 2 years. It might be because of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other negative news. However, I speculate that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will not be avoidable and the threat of a nuclear war will be the biggest storyline in mainstream news media. On account of this, my next bet for best picture for the next Oscar awards is Oppenheimer, directed by Christopher Nolan who will be my bet for best director. Hollywood will be on the nuclear war fear agenda hehehehee.

You can not deny the actor/actress from Everything Everywhere All at once having the best reactions to winning for the night. Their award speeches were from the heart as you can read the emotions from their words and on their faces.
I liked the after-show speech that Ke Huy Quan gave. He is a very funny guy as he approach the microphone that was on a high stand, he asked "Can this be lowered!?" Typical of his primary role as Shortrun from Temple of Doom which I believe won an Academy Awards many years ago probably for movie FX or score from John Williams.
I think the beloved composer was there too and into his 90s which is an accomplish in itself. After these past couple of years during the pandemic you had mentioned in the post above with so many lost during the annual in memoriam near the end.

Just a side note: Slumdog Millionaire was not considered by most as the first Indian film to win an Oscar, Daniel Boyle directed it so it was seen by most as a British film but set in India with the main character and cast being Indian.
Doing a quick search it is even considered as a British film according to the film's directors wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danny_Boyle#:~:text=Boyle's%202008%20film%20Slumdog%20Millionaire,BAFTA%20Award%20for%20Best%20Director.

Here in India, everyone is quite excited about the song winning Oscar. One fact that maybe unknown to the vast majority here is regarding the location where the song was shot. The location is Mariinskyi Palace in Kyiv, which is the official residence of the president of Ukraine. It was shot in August 2021, just a few months before the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out. In total some 400-500 actors took part, with the vast majority of them being Ukrainian extras. It took 15 days to shot this 5-minute song. Those who want to watch it, can go to this YouTube link:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsU0CGZoV8E

I don't think that happy endings have much (if anytthing) with the reason why CODA and EEOAO won, or pandemic for that matter. I mean, 2021 year was even more depressive yet Nomadland (which wasn't a feel good movie either) won.


Dunno, I am not so enthusiastic about Oppenheimer, mainly because its Nolan behind it and I don't like the way he writes characters in his movies. Somehow he manages to make me not care about them at all and I am not sure that's the best thing for biopic. Its been a while since he made a movie I liked.

It's true that All Quiet on the Western Front received numerous awards, and it's possible that passion for the film prevailed over its commercial appeal. However, I also believe that other factors, such as the film's powerful message, contributed to its success. While it may be a war movie, its themes and messages are relevant to people from all walks of life.

As for my perspective on EEAAO and its portrayal of an Asian family, as a non-American, I find the message to be clear and relatable. It's good to have diverse representation in the media and to celebrate stories from different cultures and backgrounds. However, I'm afraid no one will even remember this movie in 10-15 years, and that's something the Academy needs to fix in the future in my opinion. The Academy needs to strike a balance between recognizing films that push boundaries and represent diverse perspectives while also ensuring that the awards hold their prestige and value.

Unfortunately, all my bets on this event were lost. But luckily, I didn't put much. We're trying to be responsible gamblers, right?  ;)

On this side of the planet, said song was very popular, with challenges on social networks, especially, and on Netflix it swept as one of the movies with the most likes of the year 2022.

Excellent movie, it took me more than a week to watch it and it's seriously very difficult to sit +3 hours straight to watch a movie. The same thing happened to me with the The Irishman.
______
I think they were somewhat boring Ceremony, there were no emotions and no surprises with the winners, so very Academy Awards.

And for me it was the first time I won something from my betting on Oscars. When I saw Everything Everywhere All at Once last Summer I said: "This film is going to get Oscar for the Best Picture." Then, little by little, I watched all the future nominees, and I thought most of them were great pictures ... But yeah, I know, what the word "great" even means in regards to art? I totally agree with ChatGPT saying that it "is a subjective matter of personal taste and opinion."

I for one, watched some of this year's nominees several times, but watching Avatar: The Way of Water and The Fabelmans was torture to me, and I couldn't even watch them halfway through. ... Yes, we are so different. But let's not start killing each other because of that. :)

And I agree with you regarding "Nomadland" btw. I mean, it wasn't the only time I agreed with with the Academy, but the movie is a masterpiece imo.

I had really high hopes for Everything Everywhere All at Once as some of my friends really liked it, but I simply coulnd't handle all that chaos and silliness, even though I usually don't have issues with either of those things. For example, I know that some people coulnd't handle Uncut Gems for very same reason (being loud and chaotic) while for me its one of the best movies in recent years.


Agree about Avatar, I was bored out of my mind and coulnd't wait for it to finish and get out of cinema, while The Fablemans I liked way more than I thought I will.


Same here, Nomadland was one of the rare cases that I actually agreed with Academy as I liked the movie a lot. If you haven't already, I suggest you to check The Rider (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6217608/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0), another Chloe Zhao movie that I also liked.

Are we even really cool about directors ignoring what people want to watch and they started to focus a bit more on these new "epic" movies that aims at winning something? Oppenheimer looks like a movie we will watch, that is 100% true, because it is Nolan and look at the cast, why would I not watch it.

But, I promise you, I can make a better movie with that budget and that cast, not me personally as a director, but give me the money and let me be a producer and I can hire the same director but hire a different script, not because this will suck, we haven't even seen it, but it is a reward season movie and that sucks, people hate on Marvel but at least they do movies for the public, not for awards.

The first time I watched this film left me speechless because it just a masterpiece. The story, the plot, the production and everything is just so good that's why when I found out that they are made with a smaller production is just unbelievable. The part where the team used youtube for their editing just wow like they produced something like that just using internet. So when Everything Everywhere All at Once got nominated for the Oscars, I'd already bet for it by just experiencing the movie. No bias for the other movies but this was just spectacular. I bet with my friends with different kinds of awards like $10 for every awards since its just like a friendly bet. I bet almost for EEAO but good thing they won a lot! I'll watch some movie from the winners since I haven't see the others yet and I'll compare it to my experience from the EEAO.

Cool story bro.  :D

How experienced you are in the movie industry, how many movies you produced so far or worked on in any capacity that you claim you can do a much better work than Nolan? Gotta love guys like you that probably never suceeded at anything in their life, telling how better they would be than people who are actually doing it for a living.

It's easier to simply write something in a forum or critique someone else's work than actually doing something yourself.

That's always been the case, and that's what separates the great with the masses.

I use to edit videos with Adobe After Effects and other video tools and I'm telling you it was not that easy to make a 1-minute cool video with some effects in it back then and it took me almost 1 week to do so. Now when it comes to movies there are lots of people involved in their professional fields and sometimes the movie still looks like it hasn't been taken care of by professionals because the scene and effects are somewhat common but these people who criticize wanted to tell the directors and the cameramen what to do, doesn't know the truth of the matters is and the hard works to produce that single movie that they bashed in the internet nowadays.

Would like to know too. I think that's why there's a saying that "if you want to make it right, do it yourself." But I can't promise that everyone will believe you are right after just criticizing someone else's work without proving yourself first.

And for me it was one of the best things on the 95th Academy Awards that, despite seven nominations, The Fablemans didn't win a single Oscar. I know that it is very likely that I'm wrong, but I see it as a start of a new era in cinematography. The era where there will be less films like The Fablemans and Avatar: The Way of Water(4 nominations,1 Oscar for Best Visual Effects), and more movies like Everything Everywhere All at Once, which took all the major Oscars(for me, at least): Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.

(I don't want to look like troll here. I respect your opinion regarding The Fablemans. In fact, my wife loved the  the film very much, and I even placed a bet, on her behalf, on The Fablemans winning the Best Picture Oscar. Fortunately, it was a small bet. :) )

I find The Fabelmans and Avatar to be quite different type of movies; while first one is pretty intimate drama where Spielberg reveals some quite personal stuff and its sort of autobiopic, Avatar is a pure blockbuster whose sole purpose is to make as much money as possible and a way for Cameron to play with the cutting edge movie technologies.

I think Oscars reached point of no return as for so many years its more important about what movie is (minorities, lgbtq) than an actual quality of the movie which make them less relevant than ever before making it a movie equivalent of Eurovision song contest.

The Oscars are just a show, it's like any other TV contest really.

If you actually want to know what the best movies are, then the Oscars is probably not the best way to get that information. First of all, it's extremely US based(understandably), even with it's foreign section. Second, it's all just a show anyway, so they want a lot of people paying attention to it. That's usually not the best indication of quality.

Things like movie forums or specialized magazines, etc, would probably be a better source of information to get to know the best movies.

I agree with your comment. There are about 9,500 individuals who are eligible for vote within the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (some 500 or so don't have voting rights). And from what we have seen over the years, their preferences are much different from the general public (but then, need to admit the fact that different people have wildly different taste as far as movies are concerned). To decide whether I need to watch a movie or not, I usually depend on ratings and reviews at websites such as IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes.

Of course they are just a show, but you obviously fail to understand is that they affect movie industry whether you like it or not. Thing is, big movie companies see which type of the movie has more chances for an Oscar so when they get on a table 2 scripts (one that fits all the current agenda and the one that doesn't deal with stuff like that) take a guess which one is more likely to get picked and financed. And in the end it afects all of us and that's one of the reason why we are experiencing the worst movie decade in the last 50-60 years.


Gotta be honest, taste of an average person is crap and it would be even worse if anyone can vote. If it wasn't then all those crappy superhero movies wouldn't make billions.

Oscar has the qualifications for the films selected to be nominated, even though its base only covers the United States but there are other requirements for films to be nominated, so I think films that have been nominated for Oscar are one of the best films, while indications of quality need not be doubted because they have the conditions to be included in the nomination.

From the several revenue tracks that I see on social media, many film industries hope to be included in the nominations made by the Oscars, which means that the credibility of the Oscars cannot be doubted.

There are many other ways to get to know the best films made by the film industry, not only in the nominations made by the Oscars and I think everyone must be different in seeing the best films because not everyone's taste is the same.