2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[Rikafip]

@Rikafip. Agreed! It will certainly win for the best foreign film. The odds suggests this hehehe, however, because of the speculation that Hollywood will be on a antiwar agenda, the speech will be more heard if this can win one of the important categories.

Well, I don't think that the best foreign film is insignificant award (its not the level of best costume design e.g) so if someone really wants to make anti-war speech, he will be able to do it.

If the director also wrote the screenplay, it might be voted for best adapted screenplay hehehe.

Director (Edward Berger) is also one of the screenwriters, but I don't see why would that fact increase the chances of movie winning a best adapted screenplay award.

I got these odds from Stake, for the best foreign film:

All Quiet on the Western Front: 1.08

As you can see, All Quiet on the Western Front is far ahead of everyone else and is given more than 90% probability of winning. With such high odds, I don't think any other film stands a chance in this category.

Tbh, that bet is bad to me at these odds. I got screwed up enough times on sub 1.2 bets on Oscar winners in the past so one of my rules is that I don't take the odds lower than that. Yeah I know that it will most likely win an award in that category, but I just don't like risk to reward ratio in that specific bet.

[Sithara007]

Tbh, that bet is bad to me at these odds. I got screwed up enough times on sub 1.2 bets on Oscar winners in the past so one of my rules is that I don't take the odds lower than that. Yeah I know that it will most likely win an award in that category, but I just don't like risk to reward ratio in that specific bet.

Agreed on this. In sports, I don't usually bet with odds lower than 1.20 - 1.25. I got my fingers burnt with a few similar bets almost a decade back, and after that I have been very careful with such lop-sided odds. I would still claim that All Quiet on the Western Front has around 80% to 90% chance of winning Oscar in this category. But you never know about the last minute considerations that will be made. Considering how the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war is lighting up the social sphere, there will be repercussions on this year's Oscars as well. All Quiet on the Western Front is an anti-war movie, and therefore fits the narrative. But you never know how the jury will look at it.

[nullama]

In my opinion, even the preliminary bets on the presented favorites have quite decent odds, of course, they will be adjusted by the beginning of the Oscar ceremony, but the number of nominees is very large and it seems very difficult to determine the winner here just by watching from the side.

This seems to be a rather difficult bet.

How on earth are you supposed to bet on how a bunch of people rate a movie?

This seems like one of the most random bets I've ever seen.

It's not like sports betting since usually a strong team will win, this is about how people feel about watching a movie, which can be extremely random.

[Rikafip]

This seems like one of the most random bets I've ever seen.

I guess you never bet on Miss World or Eurovision song contest if you think that Oscar betting is random.  

It's not like sports betting since usually a strong team will win, this is about how people feel about watching a movie, which can be extremely random.

It may seem that Oscars are completely random, but there are some factors that can help you narrow down who could win. For example, movies that that deal with women, LGBTQ and other minority groups are usually a good choice in the last decade or two. Winning other awards can help too, but not by much.

Another thing that affects the race is amount of money that studio is ready to invest in the Oscar marketing campaign itself which is often measured in tens of millions of dollar and in some cases Oscar marketing campaign can cost more than a movie itself. Good example of that is Roma, movie that cost ~$15 million while Netflix spent more than $25 million for Oscar campaign but in the end it failed to win Best Picture award as it went to Green Book (movie about sort of friendship between white guy and black gay man) instead. Roma was imho far superior movie, but Green Book was more in line with what Hollywood prefers at the moment and on top of that Roma was produced by a streaming site which could also affected its chances (some big names in industry like Steve Spielberg were against movies produced by streaming sites competing in Oscars).

[tygeade]

In my opinion, even the preliminary bets on the presented favorites have quite decent odds, of course, they will be adjusted by the beginning of the Oscar ceremony, but the number of nominees is very large and it seems very difficult to determine the winner here just by watching from the side.

This seems to be a rather difficult bet.

How on earth are you supposed to bet on how a bunch of people rate a movie?

This seems like one of the most random bets I've ever seen.

It's not like sports betting since usually a strong team will win, this is about how people feel about watching a movie, which can be extremely random.

That is why you have 2 things that you can base your bet on. First of all the odds help, because they somehow get the "results" or at least what the jury is thinking or what the media is saying etc etc, there is a reason why some get 1.18 while others get 30.00, it's not just random, it's not made up, there is a reason for that.

So you can use those odds, or you could just check the previous awards as well, that's another important piece of information, when one movie wins multiple awards until Oscars, there is a good chance they may also get the Oscars as well, doesn't mean they will, it just means there is a chance that it could happen and those two things are very important. So, when you see a movie that has 1.18 odds and won 3 major awards? That usually means they will get the Oscar as well.

[ChiBitCTy]

I am trying to decide whether I should lay some bets on this or not.  I was pretty confident that Brendan Fraser was going to win actor of the year but now I'm not so sure.  Brendan was on Howard Stern yesterday (or the day before, something like that) and Howard said to him something like "you know you're a lock to win actor of the year" and Brendan responded that he honestly wasn't sure that he would win it.  Sometimes these things get a little crazy..but, still plan to lay a bet on him as actor of the year.

[nullama]

~snip~
That is why you have 2 things that you can base your bet on. First of all the odds help, because they somehow get the "results" or at least what the jury is thinking or what the media is saying etc etc, there is a reason why some get 1.18 while others get 30.00, it's not just random, it's not made up, there is a reason for that.

So you can use those odds, or you could just check the previous awards as well, that's another important piece of information, when one movie wins multiple awards until Oscars, there is a good chance they may also get the Oscars as well, doesn't mean they will, it just means there is a chance that it could happen and those two things are very important. So, when you see a movie that has 1.18 odds and won 3 major awards? That usually means they will get the Oscar as well.

Yes, fair enough. You do have some background information, like previous contests, etc.

I wonder if the jury actually watches all the films or they just read about the previous contests to make their minds 

I mean, it's a lot of movies, each one about 2 hours long, that's a lot of movie watching.

Also, it really depends on how you feel while you're watching the movie.

[Sithara007]

It may seem that Oscars are completely random, but there are some factors that can help you narrow down who could win. For example, movies that that deal with women, LGBTQ and other minority groups are usually a good choice in the last decade or two. Winning other awards can help too, but not by much.

Another thing that affects the race is amount of money that studio is ready to invest in the Oscar marketing campaign itself which is often measured in tens of millions of dollar and in some cases Oscar marketing campaign can cost more than a movie itself. Good example of that is Roma, movie that cost ~$15 million while Netflix spent more than $25 million for Oscar campaign but in the end it failed to win Best Picture award as it went to Green Book (movie about sort of friendship between white guy and black gay man) instead. Roma was imho far superior movie, but Green Book was more in line with what Hollywood prefers at the moment and on top of that Roma was produced by a streaming site which could also affected its chances (some big names in industry like Steve Spielberg were against movies produced by streaming sites competing in Oscars).

Depends on who are included within the jury. Although I would agree when you say that political considerations of the jury can have an impact on the results, it would be wrong to assume that all of the members have the same political inclination. There maybe left-leaning members of the jury who prefer films such as the Green Book, but at the same time, there may also be members from the other end of the political spectrum. But given the recent developments, it would be safe to assume that a majority of the members would be left-leaning.

[Rikafip]

I wonder if the jury actually watches all the films or they just read about the previous contests to make their minds  

I mean, it's a lot of movies, each one about 2 hours long, that's a lot of movie watching.

All members of Academy (~10k) only vote for Best Picture award, everything else is divided by their professions so for example actors vote for acting awards, screenwriters for screenplay etc so it makes it much easier for them. But in the end, they don't even have to watch the movies they are voting and its safe to assume that some of them don't even watch all the nominated movies, even only in their category. The only award (afaik) where members actually have to watch all nominated movies (there's only 5 of them though) in order to vote  is for the Best International Feature.

Depends on who are included within the jury. Although I would agree when you say that political considerations of the jury can have an impact on the results, it would be wrong to assume that all of the members have the same political inclination. There maybe left-leaning members of the jury who prefer films such as the Green Book, but at the same time, there may also be members from the other end of the political spectrum. But given the recent developments, it would be safe to assume that a majority of the members would be left-leaning.

Since Academy consists of  ~10k members, of course they can't all have the same views, but I think that its pretty obvious based on the last 2 decades where majority leans, and I see no end to this trend since newer generations of film industry workers are even more left-leaning. As long as Academy worries more about minority quotas and politics rather than the actual quality, Oscar relevance will keep declining. Up until 10 years ago I was staying up whole night (due time difference) just to watch the show live, while now there's no chance to even watch it in the reruns.

Regarding the Best Picture award, its even harder for a movie that doesn't fit Hollywood narrative to win the award because they use preferential voting (for that category only) so there's no chance that a movie that wins let's say 25% votes win an award even though it had more votes than the other nominees and in the end the movie that is more generally liked wins. People say its more fair that way, but I think that removes element of surprise form the awards which is imho a bad thing.

[bitgolden]

Depends on who are included within the jury. Although I would agree when you say that political considerations of the jury can have an impact on the results, it would be wrong to assume that all of the members have the same political inclination. There maybe left-leaning members of the jury who prefer films such as the Green Book, but at the same time, there may also be members from the other end of the political spectrum. But given the recent developments, it would be safe to assume that a majority of the members would be left-leaning.

It is safe to say that Hollywood is mostly left-leaning and the jury is from Hollywood, which means that it would most probably be a left-leaning one. This is why we are no longer in the worlds of godfather winning type of thing, we are in a period when "Oscar movie" and the best movie will never be the same because of the politics. Like Coda? Really? Are we even being serious, being the "best" movie of a whole year? Things have changed a lot and we are not going to see that much important movies.

I think the best movie of this year was Avatar and I haven't even seen it, you know why? It grossed over 2 billion dollars, that should tell you why it was the "best" movie, that's what people thinks.

[Rikafip]

I think the best movie of this year was Avatar and I haven't even seen it, you know why? It grossed over 2 billion dollars, that should tell you why it was the "best" movie, that's what people thinks.

Not sure if trolling or serious. Probably the latter so I will continue.

Earlier in your post you said "we are no longer in the worlds of godfather winning type of thing" and then you go on and suggest that the best movie should be the one that made most money. While its true for Godfather (first part only), vast majority of Best Picture winners were never those that were at the top of box office (not even in the probably the best movie decade ever, 1970s) and not even the Godfather 2  which was arguably  better than the first part and it was the first sequel ever that won Best Picture award. What you suggest would be even worse than how it is now as all we would get is even more thrash.

Unlike you, I actually went to cinema and watched Avatar 2 and its a very average movie, even boring at times (honestly I couldn't wait it to finish). While first Avatar had unoriginal story but visually it was something new that we haven't seen before, 2nd part had even worse scenario and visual component wasn't really that impressive and new as it was the first time.

[Sithara007]

Unlike you, I actually went to cinema and watched Avatar 2 and its a very average movie, even boring at times (honestly I couldn't wait it to finish). While first Avatar had unoriginal story but visually it was something new that we haven't seen before, 2nd part had even worse scenario and visual component wasn't really that impressive and new as it was the first time.

I can actually agree with you. I went to watch the Avatar (the first part) with my friends. I found it mostly boring, although the visual effects were impressive. But everyone else in my group was praising the movie and there was a guy who labelled it as the best movie he ever watched in his life. And for Avatar 2, when my family members booked the tickets, I told them that I am not interested. Tickets are quite expensive as well ($15 per head for IMAX). I thought it was not worth the time or money. So in this case, I can agree with you.

And regarding the voting preferences of the jury, I don't want to comment on it before the results are out. But the "preferential voting" system doesn't sound fair to me. 

[bbc.reporter]

Depends on who are included within the jury. Although I would agree when you say that political considerations of the jury can have an impact on the results, it would be wrong to assume that all of the members have the same political inclination. There maybe left-leaning members of the jury who prefer films such as the Green Book, but at the same time, there may also be members from the other end of the political spectrum. But given the recent developments, it would be safe to assume that a majority of the members would be left-leaning.

It is safe to say that Hollywood is mostly left-leaning and the jury is from Hollywood, which means that it would most probably be a left-leaning one. This is why we are no longer in the worlds of godfather winning type of thing, we are in a period when "Oscar movie" and the best movie will never be the same because of the politics. Like Coda? Really? Are we even being serious, being the "best" movie of a whole year? Things have changed a lot and we are not going to see that much important movies.

I think the best movie of this year was Avatar and I haven't even seen it, you know why? It grossed over 2 billion dollars, that should tell you why it was the "best" movie, that's what people thinks.

I disagree that the box office should determine if a movie is the best or not. Much of the Marvel movies are box office hits, does this imply that they are the best movies? Should we ignore other movies that show us good film making and replace them with films created for financial gain? If this was true for you then Titanic and Avatar are the best work of film making in the world? This is will be very headshaking hehehe.

In any case, Coda won best picture on 2022. This might be because the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences members wanted to vote on something light hearted after what the world has gone through with the coronavirus pandemic. The voters are following on what they want the storylines and the narratives for the present time. This is why I speculate All Quiet on the Western Front might have better expectations to win best picture because of the antiwar agenda on Ukraine.

@Rikafip. Is there a Ukranian candidate for Eurovision?

[Rikafip]

But the "preferential voting" system doesn't sound fair to me.  

Idea behind this decision is that winner of Best Picture award should be the one that is generally more liked than the others (some say that's more fair) but all that makes is film makers trying to appease to everyone, calculating what would Academy like to see. And then we get movies like Green Book or CODA winning an award, instead of something like Roma or Dune (imho last year was the perfect time for a SF movie to finally win that award as competition was kinda weak).

@Rikafip. Is there a Ukranian candidate for Eurovision?

Of course there is, thinking about betting on them?

I read recently an article on one Croatian news portal and they said that Ukrainians are again favorites (they won the last year's competition as well). Not sure if that ever happened, country winning it two times in a row. Since this is off topic I won't continue further on the subject.

[nullama]

All members of Academy (~10k) only vote for Best Picture award, everything else is divided by their professions so for example actors vote for acting awards, screenwriters for screenplay etc so it makes it much easier for them. But in the end, they don't even have to watch the movies they are voting and its safe to assume that some of them don't even watch all the nominated movies, even only in their category. The only award (afaik) where members actually have to watch all nominated movies (there's only 5 of them though) in order to vote  is for the Best International Feature.
~snip~

That's interesting.

How do you get this kind of information?, is it public information the way the awards are selected?

I would have thought that they had to watch the movies in order to select the winner, but apparently that's not necessary. But then, how on earth can they choose the best movie if they haven't even watched it...

[Rikafip]

How do you get this kind of information?, is it public information the way the awards are selected?

Of course all this info is public, you can find bunch of articles about it. I am too bored to shared articles and you can easily find them by googling.

I would have thought that they had to watch the movies in order to select the winner, but apparently that's not necessary.

Well, theoretically they should watch all of them as they even get copies of the movies sent to them (so called "screeners") but how exactly to enforce that or even test whether they actually watched it or not. So in the end its sort of honor system and I you can imagine how that goes.

But then, how on earth can they choose the best movie if they haven't even watched it...

Via "eeny, meeny, miny, moe" or maybe they chose the best movie by how much it earned, like one of the members here suggested it should be done. Anything goes really  

[Cryptock]

How do you get this kind of information?, is it public information the way the awards are selected?

Of course all this info is public, you can find bunch of articles about it. I am too bored to shared articles and you can easily find them by googling.

I would have thought that they had to watch the movies in order to select the winner, but apparently that's not necessary.

Well, theoretically they should watch all of them as they even get copies of the movies sent to them (so called "screeners") but how exactly to enforce that or even test whether they actually watched it or not. So in the end its sort of honor system and I you can imagine how that goes.

But then, how on earth can they choose the best movie if they haven't even watched it...

Via "eeny, meeny, miny, moe" or maybe they chose the best movie by how much it earned, like one of the members here suggested it should be done. Anything goes really  

I tried finding a lot of movies on Netflix  but most of them are not available in our geographical region
I will have a look through through other movie sites and come back for my opinion

[Porfirii]

How do you get this kind of information?, is it public information the way the awards are selected?

Of course all this info is public, you can find bunch of articles about it. I am too bored to shared articles and you can easily find them by googling.

I would have thought that they had to watch the movies in order to select the winner, but apparently that's not necessary.

Well, theoretically they should watch all of them as they even get copies of the movies sent to them (so called "screeners") but how exactly to enforce that or even test whether they actually watched it or not. So in the end its sort of honor system and I you can imagine how that goes.

But then, how on earth can they choose the best movie if they haven't even watched it...

Via "eeny, meeny, miny, moe" or maybe they chose the best movie by how much it earned, like one of the members here suggested it should be done. Anything goes really  

I tried finding a lot of movies on Netflix  but most of them are not available in our geographical region
I will have a look through through other movie sites and come back for my opinion

I don't know whether this is general for all countries or only for my country, but a few days ago Netflix changed there T&Cs and now you cannot share an account with multiple familiars. I guess that they control this comparing IPs, so if you have problems because it isn't available in your geographical region, you can try with a VPN, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't work.

[Rikafip]

I don't know whether this is general for all countries or only for my country, but a few days ago Netflix changed there T&Cs and now you cannot share an account with multiple familiars. I guess that they control this comparing IPs, so if you have problems because it isn't available in your geographical region, you can try with a VPN, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't work.

His problem is the fact that out of 10 movies nominated for Best Picture award, only All Quiet on the Western Front is available on Netflix so of course he couldn't find many and I don't think that he would find more even if he used VPN to unlock country that has better selection of movies, like US or Canada.

Regarding the password sharing thing, I heard about the changes but so far they haven't enforced it in Croatia but its juts a matter of day. Not a smart move imho, they will lose a lot of customers due that.

[Saint-loup]

@Rikafip. Is there a Ukranian candidate for Eurovision?

Yes they are the favorites of the bookmakers again but I don't think they will win this year, because the singer doesn't look very ukrainian actually and the song is not really good IMO. https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

Tvorchi - Heart of Steel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6QFVqWX2gM

I read recently an article on one Croatian news portal and they said that Ukrainians are again favorites (they won the last year's competition as well).

Have you already seen the croatian entry ?   Those guys are really crazy! I love that, I think they can surprise everybody and finish in the top 10.
Well if people are interested and if nobody opens a thread I will do it in the coming days I think.

Let 3 - Mama ŠČ!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1-hSh10PB4