2023 Oscar Awards betting and discussions

[nullama]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

I haven't seen All Quiet On The Western Front yet, but I'm reading a bit about it and it seems well deserved.

It's a story written by a World War I German veteran, so it means that it has a potential to be a great movie.

Seeing that it won multiple awards it makes me think that it's probably a great movie, so they seem to have executed the task up to the standard.

I'm probably going to end up watching it at some point, seems promising.

I guess it would have made sense to bet for that one.

[1715012182]

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[bbc.reporter]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

All Quiet On The Western Front has also won the best adapted screenplay category in Bafta and changed the odds from 3.45 to 2.84 in coinplay.com. For best picture their win in Bafta changed the odds from 34.00 to 27.00.

https://coinplay.com/line/tv-games/2434063-academy-awards-2023

If you are a supporter for All Quiet On The Western Front, wait for the final voting of the academy members on March 2 to March 7. I am quite certain that there will be leaks of information and it will show another change in the odds. If All Quiet has another reduction of odds, we can speculate that the Hollywood agenda is presently an antiwar agenda hehehe.

[slapper]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

All quiet on the Western Front is one of a kind. I have seen many reviews on Youtube and they definitely deserve the award. I will definitely spend this weekend watching this movie. It is a true anti-war film compared to the previous (Dunkirk, Saving Private Ryan). The Ukranian-Russian war is just one of several global conflicts. In these chaotic times, we need a video like this to remind us of war's futility and peace's beauty.

[Rikafip]

I am quite certain that there will be leaks of information and it will show another change in the odds. If All Quiet has another reduction of odds, we can speculate that the Hollywood agenda is presently an antiwar agenda hehehe.

Since you keep speculating that Hollywood might push anti-war agenda this year, did you bet on All Quiet yet before odds go more down? Btw, its interesting to see that Everything Everywhere All at Once won only 1 BAFTA so I am glad that Brits (like me) weren't impressed with that movie.

All quiet on the Western Front is one of a kind.

Its hardly one of a kind since there's at least two earlier versions of the same movie.

[FanEagle]

I can see cinematography going to AQOTWF because that really has some great ones, there is no doubt about that and I would give them that. But the best movie? Really? I do not think that it was the best movie at all, I do not think that it was even in the top two for me, hell probably top three.

I would rank The Fabelmans and everything everywhere all at once, and the whale as my top three in no particular order at this moment. That really feels like the top three for most people as well. In any case, just because a movie won the BAFTA, doesn't mean they are getting the Oscars, I think that is as irrelevant as it could get. We are going to see one of that three win the Oscar.

[Rikafip]

I can see cinematography going to AQOTWF because that really has some great ones, there is no doubt about that and I would give them that. But the best movie? Really? I do not think that it was the best movie at all, I do not think that it was even in the top two for me, hell probably top three.

If you don't think that All Quiet on the Western Front wouldn't be a worthy winner, what would you say about the last year's winner CODA (an average remake of an already average french movie made few years earlier)? Even better, take a look at the last 10-15 winners and name me a few that will be remembered in a few decades as great movies? Just to add that its not the best movie of the last year for me neither, but it wouldn't be undeserved if it wins in the end as we had far worse movies winning in the past.

In any case, just because a movie won the BAFTA, doesn't mean they are getting the Oscars, I think that is as irrelevant as it could get.

Of course it doesn't and I don't think that anyone said that. All it does is affects the odds slightly and that's about it.

[Slow death]

I haven't seen All Quiet On The Western Front yet, but I'm reading a bit about it and it seems well deserved.

I watched this movie on netflix and without a doubt it is a great war movie, right from the beginning of the movie we see a lot of action, soldiers with helmets, boots and weapons running and being hit by the enemy, honestly it is a sad picture of war, me when I watch these movies, I think about how far human beings go in their quest for power, how far human ambition and greed go, there are parts of the movie that shocked me, for example, they remove the robes and boots of dead soldiers, then they wash their clothes and get dressed. if any repairs were needed, they would take the clothes to be repaired and then give these clothes to other soldiers to wear

It is a portrait of the horror of war, in the part where I saw the motivation speech of the Germans it was something unbelievable, they were simply in a different world from ours, they believed that any excitement or indecision was to be a traitor to the country, without a doubt that this movie deserved to win

[bbc.reporter]

I am quite certain that there will be leaks of information and it will show another change in the odds. If All Quiet has another reduction of odds, we can speculate that the Hollywood agenda is presently an antiwar agenda hehehe.

Since you keep speculating that Hollywood might push anti-war agenda this year, did you bet on All Quiet yet before odds go more down?

No! I underestimated the effect of winning Bafta on the oddsmakers' decisions. The day after the announcements of winners of Bafta, the odds went from 34.00 to 27.00 in Coinplay. In Sportsbet it went from 30.00 to 17.00. I thought that I can wait for my next signature payment and deposit in Coinplay to bet the 27.00 odds. I looked at the odds again and it is only presently on 7.45! I will still bet this! This is the type of odds changes that happened on Coda. I will also bet on best adapted screenplay and best sound for All Quiet.

[Rikafip]

No! I underestimated the effect of winning Bafta on the oddsmakers' decisions

Big part for that odds drop is due the fact that All Quiet won the most awards and that's something that barely anyone expected. I kinda expected 1917 winning many awards few years ago (it was their movie after all and it also won 7), I didn't expect so many awards for this one. I guess Brits are fan of war movies.

This is the type of odds changes that happened on Coda.

While odds on Coda were initially very high (~26  after nominations were released), few days before the ceremony odds dropped to only ~2 and Power Of The Dog was a slight favorite with ~1.8. I will wait a little bit more to see how situation develops and if odds keep dropping sharply I might bet on it so another CODA doesn't happen to me.

[Betwrong]

I think these two movies have an equal chance, but in this situation it is better, of course, to bet on the latter, considering 101.00 odds.

If what you are saying is true, that means bookies made a huge mistake by giving such a high odds on Triangle of Sadness. To me its one of the better movies of the last year (and I really enjoyed seeing Croatian actor Zlatko Buric aka Dimitry as I haven';t seen him in anything good for many years) but if that one wins, it would be one of the biggest upsets ever and somehow I don't see it happening since there's no buzz around it.

I think if Triangle of Sadness wins, bookies will payout from the money placed on other pictures, so they will not lose anything anyway.

As for the probability of it winning in the Best Picture category, of course it's not that high, but definitely much more than 1%. Remember Parasite winning the Oscar for the Best Picture 3 years ago? To me Triangle of Sadness is a similar film, criticizing the rich and the poor in an amazingly funny manner.

The movie I think deserved Best Picture nominations but for some reason didn't end up getting one is Aftersun.  

I watched Aftersun and I liked it, but not to the extent other movie fans(including you) did. I feel like I missed something important. So, I downloaded the screenplay and reading it right now to better understand what Charlotte Wells wanted to say with her film.

Btw, look at the odds for Paul Mescal in the Best Actor category:



He was recognized by many for his outstanding performance in Aftersun, and I think he deserves a bet on him, especially with those odds.

[Sithara007]

No! I underestimated the effect of winning Bafta on the oddsmakers' decisions. The day after the announcements of winners of Bafta, the odds went from 34.00 to 27.00 in Coinplay. In Sportsbet it went from 30.00 to 17.00. I thought that I can wait for my next signature payment and deposit in Coinplay to bet the 27.00 odds. I looked at the odds again and it is only presently on 7.45! I will still bet this! This is the type of odds changes that happened on Coda. I will also bet on best adapted screenplay and best sound for All Quiet.

Huge jump for All Quiet on the Western Front in Stake.com. Odds jumped from 31.00 to 8.00. Here are the latest odds for best picture:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: 1.36
The Banshees of Inisherin: 6.75
Top Gun: Maverick: 12.00
The Fabelmans: 17.00
Tár: 31.00
All Quiet on the Western Front: 8.00
Women Talking: 101.00
Elvis: 101.00
Avatar: The Way of Water: 81.00
Triangle of Sadness: 101.00

[Rikafip]

As for the probability of it winning in the Best Picture category, of course it's not that high, but definitely much more than 1%. Remember Parasite winning the Oscar for the Best Picture 3 years ago? To me Triangle of Sadness is a similar film, criticizing the rich and the poor in an amazingly funny manner.

There are similarities in the subject of those movies, but while Triangle of Sadness is a total underdog with not a good chances for a win, Parasite was the 2nd favorite (the only one ahead was 1917) that before Oscar won a couple of BAFTA and Golden Globe awards so it already had a decent resume. I might be totally wrong here, but I see Parasite winning was in part of compensation for Roma not winning an award the previous year and making it the first non-English spoken movie that won Best Picture award. Don't get me wrong, it is a quality movie and deserving winner (albeit for me the best one that year was probably The Marriage Story) but South Koreans made better ones in previous years that unfortunately weren't recognized.

He was recognized by many for his outstanding performance in Aftersun, and I think he deserves a bet on him, especially with those odds.

He did a very good job and these are the good odds, but they are so high for a reason. For me personally Colin Farrel did the best job while I still haven't seen The Whale (it became available today on torrents so I'll probably watch it in the next few days) and since I like the odds (~6) I will go for him.

[famososMuertos]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

I haven't seen All Quiet On The Western Front yet, but I'm reading a bit about it and it seems well deserved.

It's a story written by a World War I German veteran, so it means that it has a potential to be a great movie.

Seeing that it won multiple awards it makes me think that it's probably a great movie, so they seem to have executed the task up to the standard.

I'm probably going to end up watching it at some point, seems promising.

I guess it would have made sense to bet for that one.

@nullama although obviously it is to get information to choose a bet, I think the point is always to have that winning bet with friends and family, I think there is no event where you can do it like in the Oscars, since sports betting is always, e.g. , in my case very solitary, to the click of the computer or to the pulse of the finger, which is the most normal, and there are no predictions to share.

On the other hand (OT), I never watch foreign films before the Oscars, and then unless they win something I encourage myself to see them, I remember Parasite at the time, but! I saw a wonderful movie once again, "All Quiet On The Western Front," I've seen it, it's one of those movies that if they give me a spoiler I would "kill" whoever did it.  

Exceptional, in fact, I don't watch war movies, I think those of us who have lived for more than 30 years have seen the story told a thousand times and at least in my case, I don't want any more of these stories, BUT! in fact the harshness of this film, I think it's raised to the 64th power, amazing, the story of protagonist "hooks/catch" you, it involves us, it makes us suffer, it makes us dodge bullets, it makes us scream; run, hide, be careful... makes us say "please don't die".

I think that given the other nominated films, there is a high chance that a foreign film will win the Oscars again, which would reaffirm it that European productions in general have an excellent level.

[shogun47]

Winners of BAFTA awards have been announced tonight and it will be interesting to see whether that affects the Oscar odds, especially for "All Quiet On The Western Front" that managed to scoop 7 awards. I'll mention winners of the few most important awards only and you can find the rest in this article.

Best film: "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading actor: Austin Butler for "Elvis"
Leading actress: Cate Blanchett for "Tar"
Director: Edward Berger for "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Original Screenplay: "The Banshees Of Inisherin" by Martin Mcdonagh
Cinematography: "All Quiet On The Western Front"

All quiet on the Western Front is one of a kind. I have seen many reviews on Youtube and they definitely deserve the award. I will definitely spend this weekend watching this movie. It is a true anti-war film compared to the previous (Dunkirk, Saving Private Ryan). The Ukranian-Russian war is just one of several global conflicts. In these chaotic times, we need a video like this to remind us of war's futility and peace's beauty.

I watched the movie and the film producers found the right balance between the modern requirements the average audience has to day, and the reality that this is a movie taking place in 1917. It is not this overly polished loaded with special effects Hollywood thing, but at the same time modern enough to make it a great film that is well received by an audience that has now long been spoiled by high end overloaded and unrealistic productions. That job was well done.

Have fun watching it!

[bbc.reporter]

No! I underestimated the effect of winning Bafta on the oddsmakers' decisions

Big part for that odds drop is due the fact that All Quiet won the most awards and that's something that barely anyone expected. I kinda expected 1917 winning many awards few years ago (it was their movie after all and it also won 7), I didn't expect so many awards for this one. I guess Brits are fan of war movies.

This is the type of odds changes that happened on Coda.

While odds on Coda were initially very high (~26  after nominations were released), few days before the ceremony odds dropped to only ~2 and Power Of The Dog was a slight favorite with ~1.8. I will wait a little bit more to see how situation develops and if odds keep dropping sharply I might bet on it so another CODA doesn't happen to me.

I speculate that it might drop more after the Oscar votes are completed on March 2 to March 7. If All Quiet's odds become only 3.50 or lower, we can assume that the a antiwar agenda in Hollywood is real hehehe. This is certainly a good movie for it because it ended with the German soldiers not wanting to go back on the field anymore after being given their last orders by their uncaring leaders and generals.

You should bet with me while the odds remain to be quite good. Do not wait for the leaks to arrive after March 7 heheehe.

[FatFork]

<cut>

Thanks for sharing the winners of the BAFTA awards! "All Quiet On The Western Front" seems to have done exceptionally well at the BAFTAs, winning seven awards including Best Film and Best Director. It will be interesting to see whether this success translates to the Oscars. Interestingly, the movie received harsh criticism from German critics, who found fault with its simplistic adaptation of a cherished literary classic and its historical inaccuracies. Additionally, Netflix has been accused of turning the movie into an "Oscar-bait" war spectacle, though some speculate this is all part of a savvy marketing tactic.

[Rikafip]

I speculate that it might drop more after the Oscar votes are completed on March 2 to March 7.

Its definitely possible, I just checked the https://m.nicerodds.co.uk/academy-award and I think that odds on Everything Everywhere All At Once dropped slightly, which is a good thing for all those betting on All Quiet.

This is certainly a good movie for it because it ended with the German soldiers not wanting to go back on the field anymore after being given their last orders by their uncaring leaders and generals.

Warning, spoiler: Hm didn't movie ended in a total opposite way, by that officer sending bunch of soldiers into last battle just before armistice started, causing more unnecessary deaths?

Interestingly, the movie received harsh criticism from German critics, who found fault with its simplistic adaptation of a cherished literary classic and its historical inaccuracies. Additionally, Netflix has been accused of turning the movie into an "Oscar-bait" war spectacle, though some speculate this is all part of a savvy marketing tactic.

Some people keep forgetting that there is a difference between movies and documentaries and war/history movies are rarely accurate and usually contain some fiction, even if they were an adaption of a novel like in this case. I would also like if movie followed the novel more closely as I think some scenes would make movie better, but that's just how it goes with adaptations and movies are never as good as the novels they are based on.

Regarding movie being an Oscar bait, I didn't really have that feeling while watching so I googled it a little bit to see what others said about it and I found one harsh critic accusing movie exactly of that, and then as an example of a good war movie he mentioned Fury, which is one of the worst war movies I've seen.

Just to add that for me it isn't even in a top 3 among the nominated ones, but I wouldn't mind if it wins a Best Picture Oscar since that would mean that Everything Everywhere All At Once didn't win it .  

[FatFork]

This is certainly a good movie for it because it ended with the German soldiers not wanting to go back on the field anymore after being given their last orders by their uncaring leaders and generals.

Hm didn't movie ended in a total opposite way, by that officer sending bunch of soldiers into last battle just before armistice started, causing more unnecessary deaths?

Damn, you could have warned us with a "spoiler alert" before sharing that information! 

Regarding movie being an Oscar bait, I didn't really have that feeling while watching so I googled it a little bit to see what others said about it and I found one harsh critic accusing movie exactly of that, and then as an example of a good war movie he mentioned Fury, which is one of the worst war movies I've seen.

Yeah, I agree. I mean, I liked "Fury" because it has a good storyline (at least in the first part) and some impressive cinematography, but let's be real, the movie's rating wouldn't be nearly as high if it wasn't for Brad Pitt's name in the cast.

[STT]

Everything Everywhere Ive seen and wasnt that impressed enough to think it a favorite by this amount.   I get its popular but outstandingly different is not the impression I had, might be missing something there but for the moment I will guess the others have a better chance then is currently rated.  Western front seems quite possible, still not sure yet.

[Rikafip]

Damn, you could have warned us with a "spoiler alert" before sharing that information! 

Oh ffs, I am really sorry, I edited it now. I am usually very careful with these kind of things and I this was a total brainfart. /facepalm