Dec 10, 2013

Welp, looks like I was wrong about how low we'd get.  I certainly didn't expect it to bubble up again this soon.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.



Right now, I'd expect a continuation of the trend; plenty of volatility and a quickly raising price. I think it could get up to 400-500 before we see another major crash.

Yes, yes you are.


Better stop using the internet too, considering it was primarily developed by DARPA/DOD (probably as a plot to monitor your porn usage). If you are going to be crazy, you might as well take it all the way.

No, it still looks very very stupid.

Not bullish at all right now...still going down in the mid-term, IMO.

Don't get caught in the suckers rally, people.  Even though there are profits to be made, we are still in a bear market...dont get greedy.

Very nice.

If you think that $100 a day price increase is coming true anytime soon (or at all) you are very delusional.

Hell, I doubt Vladamir ever actually believed it...I personally think he is playing on people's naïveté.

Yes I think we are.

Very much so, in fact (and in multiple ways).

And how does that make the 2011 bubble bigger?  Why is that metric more important to quantifying the bubble than things volume, media coverage, and hype within the community (or the aggregate data of those metrics combined)?

No? Setting aside percentage (because we are not going to agree on where the bubbles began), look at the volume between 2011 and 2013.   Look at media coverage in 2011 vs 2013.  Look at the hype on this forum in 2011 vs 2013.

How exactly was the bubble bigger in 2011?  I honestly don't see it.



volume chart and closing price for reference:

this.

If you are going to ignore media/public attention in 2011 to call the bubble at 1-2, I'd have to say 2013's bubble started at 10 based on volume and rate of price increase.

No worries, this all comes down to personal opinion and how you read the data....we are not all going to come to the same conclusions.

Random Valdamir quote:



Yeah, that didn't exactly pan out now, did it?

I put exactly as much faith into your current prediction.

Again, I put the 2011 bubble hitting at $7, which gives growth of less than 5x.  At $1-$2 the trading was done primarily within the community and media attention/attention by the general public hadn't hit yet.  I think the Wired article was the big mark for the first bubble.

That aside, you are ignoring volume, amount of media attention, amount of hype within the community, and absolute price.  This bubble was much larger, IMO.

I'd call it at somewhere near $30.  Thats when media started picking back up again with "BTC near ATH" type articles causing renewed interest by the public.

That said, with this bubble being larger in pretty much all aspects (particularly in volume), I'd expect a deeper crash this time.

I'd agree that the exact start is debatable, but in my opinion the speculative bubble didn't start until the media hit and the general public joined in.  Until then, the speculation was limited to the relatively small group of people within the community. Again, I don't believe the chart give the whole picture (particularly as someone who was around the community back then)

Yes it did. The last bubble started somewhere around $7 with the article in Wired (which started awareness of BTC by the general public), and ended at around $2.  The log chart does not give the complete picture of the Bitcoin economy in 2011.

Yup. That number would be zero.

I believe (and have been saying it for a while).