BFL still hasn't shipped product they promised in October of last year. Why does that sound so familiar?  |
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... Let us review. August Tape Out was a lie it wasn't completed until December / January? 5 to 6 months late.
Foundry was 20 weeks not 10 weeks.
Bumping Slicing & BGA packaging (testing) was estimated 2 weeks. We are at 4 weeks now and still not tested.
Initial shipments and ramp up to take 3 weeks. Ramp up must include testing of the packaged chips in the Monarch to establish stability. This will take 3 to 4 just on the testing and that is before production can start in earnest. Ok does anyone see any GLARING omissions in the estimates from the past? March? April? I suspect Q3 end of summer if you are lucky. We've been in development for approximately six months. As stated in their October website. So count backwards please with me. October September August July June and May 2013. They have admitted they started development in May 2013. Now let us count forward May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February. 10 months. Still no working chips. Still no working Monarch. Originally promised to ship in the bulk of orders in 15 weeks from mid October website claim. November (4 weeks) December (4 weeks) January (4 weeks) Bulk of orders were not shipped on January 16th or abouts... they still do not have working packaged chips. Man, it works every time, huh? How disappointing to see suckers getting burnt in exactly the same way yet again. I guess it makes sense though since it is hard for noobs to get a good picture of history. I only hope that this latest batch of sucker gets lucky and does OK on yet another unrelated BTC valuation increase. Or at least those who are among the earlier to finally get their gear...if there even are any this time. Suckers by their very nature tend disappoint those around them. If it wasn't BFL, it would be some mail order scam for $19.95!!! At least the Bitcoin community is robust enough that parasites like BFL and Silk Road are no longer existential threats. |
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Very glad I bought $2500 of BTC instead of BFL (or other ASICs) in Feb of 2012. 50x return on the ones I sold so far.  A little sad I bought $2500 of GPUs in Dec 2012. They generated a good return via Litecoin mining but no where near as good as buying BTC.  Soooooo glad I didn't buy BFL, I would have missed the bus and only gotten .15 BTC back for every 1 BTC lost.  |
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Any sign of Monarch's in the wild yet? I haven't been paying attention much to the mining scene of late.
I don't mean photoshopped pics of prototypes from inside BFL, I mean actual unboxing videos and such.
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Instead of buying a BFL Single for $1200, I bought 50 BTC. I still have them. They don't hash well, but they have made me very happy.
I've been using the coins I mined with my GPUs since May as play money on the exchanges. With the recent spike in pricing on the alt coins as well as the rise in BTC price, I think I'm sitting a bit better than that. I'd say that's not bad considering my first investment was made using .28BTC I had mined to buy ASICMiner shares. I doubt you have mined 50 BTC with your Single. |
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Instead of buying a BFL Single for $1200, I bought 50 BTC. I still have them. They don't hash well, but they have made me very happy.
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Count me as one of those saps who figured an upgrade would give some hope of being able to mine. What worse is I used BTC to do it! In a fiat sense, it would be ok once the fiat conversion of BTC rises. But certainly not when everything is denominated in BTC. I'm hedged between holding actual coin, mining stocks and hopefully a miner that gets delivered sometime SOON. Been beating up on myself for doing it. Heck, the SINGLE order was 93 BTC at the time. That's one expensive piece of vaporware.
/rant
Ouch, you poured almost $30K into the BFL hole.  |
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My LS paid for itself.
You came out better than most.
Amen on that. I paid 15 BTC for my Jalapeno and bought the $100 2 GH upgrade. Since it was delivered in June, it has earned 7 BTC running 24/7/365. Purchase price in BTC: 15, plus the $100 upgrade Purchase price equivalent in $ (at that time): $365 Purchase price equivalent in $ (today, BTC=$330): $5000 Payback equivalent in $ (today, BTC=330): $2300 Looking at it from a $ standpoint, I did very well. Looking at it from a BTC standpoint, I lost half my investment. I doubt BFL will be calling me for a testimonial. My Paypal chargebacks for the last two orders have just been finalized and the BFL site shows status as "canceled" (sic). Rather than saying "Looking at it from a $ standpoint" say "When I include the appreciation of BTC in USD terms" Most miners lump in BTC appreciation and include that as profit, when in fact that obscures whether or not your mining operation is a loss-maker. A few ASIC devices have earned more BTC than was spent on them, but I don't think there are any BFL Singles that have. |
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It will prove the correlation between the cost of minting new bitcoins and the value of a bitcoin. Or disprove it. When it costs a million dollars to buy the gear to mint one bitcoin per day we will have our answer.
But you are not measuring what you claim that you are measuring. The "cost of mining bitcoins" != hardware prices per GH, and especially not ones sold to end users. Those are market prices formed by supply and demand, and demand is correlated with bitcoins price and expected future difficulty. Is that really so hard to grasp? Here is a hint for you: those hardware vendors are making a fortune. You speak of "cost", what do you think it costs KnC to produce a GH? What would it cost Bitfury? Or why is that less relevant than what it costs you?Secondly you can measure any correlation you want, but you are drawing the wrong conclusions from it (and from incorrect data) because you are (deliberately?) oblivious to the underlying mechanisms, which really arent very difficult to understand. ^This^ Plus: Buying mining hardward (ASIC) is simply a structured purchase of bitcoins (time to delivery varies) with an variable revenue stream of bitcoins (based on future network difficulty). It can be most easily compared with buying a fixed number of bitcoins from an exchange. Just as historical prices are adjusted for inflation, mining performance needs to be adjusted for appreciation in the price of BTC. One could present all prices and revenue in BTC to avoid having to make this adjustment. Reducing a combination of variables (difficulty, hardware price, btc price, delivery date) to a single value will not result in a good indicator. |
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Second, every investment has an ROI. It can be positive, negative or zero. When a newbie says that "something doesn't ROI", or they say "it doesn't reach ROI", they really mean to say that the ROI is negative or zero. Every purchase comes with a discount. It can be positive, negative or zero. So when a newbie says "I got a discount on my miner", they really meant "I got a positive, non zero discount". In the context its clear that when such qualifier is omitted, a positive, non zero value should be assumed. The same goes for things like growth: "bitcoin adoption is growing". No one assumes that to be zero growth or negative growth. The same applies to ROI In the context of mining equipment. Yes, technically the assumption of it being positive is not embedded in the word, but its implied by its context and we all know what is meant by it, so get over it. ROI has a fixed definition in the form of math, so it's definition should not evolve over time as other words do. The vernacular uses of ROI do include an assumed positive, but not everyone is fluent in the vernacular so it helps to know the canonical form. A lot of people have conflated getting 50% of their money back with getting a 50% "return", however they are all Americans. L2Math 'Merica IMO.  |
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In case anyone is actually listening to fractal02, here is his account info.
Name: fractal02
Posts: 192
Activity: 126
Position: Full Member
Date Registered: July 18, 2013, 07:59:06 AM
Last Active: Today at 02:56:22 PM
He showed up in July of this year and immediately started white-knighting for BFL. Sockpuppet? Or just too many chromosomes?
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After watching KNC ship their first batch, and after watching Bitfury ship their first batch, it is even more evident that something shady is going on at BFL.
There are not enough people with downs syndrome on the planet to ascribe BFL's failures to incompetence. There has to be a parts crunch, and since BFL has known for a year how many parts they would need ahead of time, the only explanation for failing to have enough parts would be inability to pay for them up front. No bank would give them a factor loan given the parties involved.
So BFL orders some parts, assembles some product and ships it. Rinse, repeat. Did they get enough monarch pre-orders to build enough Jalapenos & Singles? Time will tell.
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all the in hand BFL equipment on ebay speaks for itself..... just because it took a little longer than expected to deliver..... they are shipping tons of units! either that or people are selling the save 500 units back and forth on ebay constantly....
I found 20 "in hand" units for sale on ebay. People are still bidding for them. Silly. |
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I will try your way later this evening when i'm able to! Trying to be ahead with primary, secondary objective and so forth to be as prepared as i can  So your feedback was much appreciated. Thanks!! Be sure and email your symptoms (and hopefully a solution to your problems) to KNC. They may not respond, but information about failures is worth it's weight in gold. |
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We should all pool together and buy advertising space here... I am sure we could put up whatever we wanted since they allow scammers to advertise?!?!
BFL uses Google Adwords to hook their fish. I am sure that reach is 400,000,000 times better than the bitcointalk forums. |
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Shouldn't Inaba/Josh be swinging by to add insult to injury about now?
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urinary-tract-infection-yellow ignore button
Why have you summoned me! |
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I guess I feel a bit left out of all the trolling— KNC is now mining on their hardware, while customers wait for it to ship: http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/17Czc8RVL3FU5T2MLx2zLbRnpfBNgH9vFoThis is, as far as I know, 100% of the KNC hashrate in existence. Pedantically speaking, it means that KNC is violating their 5% commitment. Testing doesn't involve using the production network. Production mining is unlikely to test finding blocks— whereas testnet, or replays of past found blocks are more complete tests. Mining on the mainnet increases the difficulty and takes income from customers who are waiting on units that will be late. Every bit of earlier mining is worth large amounts of future mining due to expected growth. I do not understand why miners keep funding mining hardware companies that mine in competition with their own customers. I think they did that as proof of existence of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFOcI8nK2xIBut yeah, they should stop. P.S. my mommas fat. |
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Now that is engineering. I would like to give a "Great job done" to the KNCMiner guys. |
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