Grats on 0 more weeks!  |
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Thanks for the links but they are wrong. If you are mining .1 a day with 5GH you really need to switch your pool or pound your head into a wall becuase you are getting fucked by your pool. I'm just looking at my own stats plus btc earned a day.
All of a sudden, the math behind bitcoin is wrong! Someone hacked all the bitcoin calculators today and they no longer work!   |
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1)As far as we know besides a few testers Bitfury's chips will only be made available to Metabank and 100TH. 2)BFL has an incentive to supply chips since they collect 50% on delivery. 3)BFL chips will come directly from GlobalFoundries which will avoid many of the supply chain problems. Trust BFL? How did you get those two words to be in the same sentence? Black magic!  |
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.2 is about right for 5gh.
Try again. It's .12. Try again. It's 0.11785949. Rounding up is for people without 8 decimal places! |
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This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big  Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st. He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough. Great thread bump though  He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off. He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013". That actually means before the beginning of Summer, or to put it another way, by the end of Spring. You only read the first half of the thread, didn't you. |
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So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013"
or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013".
To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug
So if I say "I'll be at work by 8am", I really mean "between 8am and 8:59:59am"? 8am is a specific point in time. 8:01am is different than 8am. If you said you will be back at work by mid-afternoon, does that mean precisely 3pm? Or does it mean a range of time around 3pm? |
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In other words to see if he was correct. Someone help me out here... lol
I think we are hung up on the legal definition vs the colloquial definition. 'by" can mean one of the following: 1: in proximity to : near <standing by the window> 2a : through or through the medium of : via <enter by the door> 2b : in the direction of : toward <north by east> 2c : into the vicinity of and beyond : past <went right by him> 3a : during the course of <studied by night> 3b : not later than <by 2 p.m.> 4a : through the agency or instrumentality of <by force> 4b : born or begot of 4c : sired or borne by 5: with the witness or sanction of <swear by all that is holy> 6a : in conformity with <acted by the rules> 6b : according to <called her by name> 7a : on behalf of <did right by his children> 7b : with respect to <a lawyer by profession> 8a : in or to the amount or extent of <win by a nose> 8b chiefly Scottish : in comparison with : beside I think this usage would be definition 3b or possibly 3a. So read his statement like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million during the course of summer 2013" or like this "I predict difficulty will be over 100 million not later than summer 2013". To me that seems like summer counts. /shrug |
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Ordered today using Paypal.
Results skewed by lack of "Never" option in poll. |
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This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st. He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough. Great thread bump though He said when "Summer arrives" i.e. June 21st-22nd. So prediction was def off. He said to bump the thread when summer arrives. His prediction was "I Predict Difficulty Will Be Over 100 Million by Summer 2013". |
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I only have issues with the former, which is a ponzi.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. If you can't see the pyramid of growing a personal operation by selling suckers overpriced equipment, I think you are the one who lacks the notion what it means. A ponzi scheme pays new investors dividends with their own money or money from subsequent investors, the scheme itself is not profitable and requires that more and more money be "invested" in order to continue to function. If ASICMiner is forced to do this, that means their mining operation is neither profitable nor sustainable. If ASICMiner is a ponzi scheme then it will eventually unravel and you need not worry about them taking over the Bitcoin mining world. The only way for ASICMiner to be a threat to Bitcoin is if they can continue to grow and reinvest actual profits from their mining activities. Actual profits precludes them from being a ponzi scheme. |
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We aren't talking about electricity costs but capital outlays.
But you make the decision in the same way. First determine if one can get more Bitcoin by purchasing it off the exchanges than by purchasing mining equipment and mining with it. Would you buy a GPU to mine bitcoin with free electricity today? If not, how did you come to that conclusion? All of this projection or whatever you want to call it is future prediction.
A projection is determining the outcome based on a fixed set of criteria. A prediction is determining the outcome for all criteria. Projections are useful because you can determine the set of input values required in order for something to be profitable. For instance,the following statement is a projection: "If you get your product at 80M difficulty and difficulty adjusts up at an average rate of 9% over the next 8 months, you will not earn a return on your capital investment." The following statement is a prediction: "You will not earn a return on your investment". We don't know what the rate of decay will be when approaching the lower limits of fiat costs of chips or a sudden large drop in exchange rates.
One can project the outcome of various rates of decay quite easily using calculators. One might project that a venture would be profitable at a 4% rate of decay but unprofitable at a higher rate over a 6 month period. This is useful information. Of course BFL might go bankrupt tomorrow, KNC turns out to be a scam, Bitfury founders are killed and eaten by Edward Snowden (he is in Russia right now hunting them!), and ASICMiner's facility burns to the ground. Then anyone who already has an ASIC miner will mint money. But those are low probability events. If you have to rely on a rise in exchange rates to bail you out, your mining is not profitable. You also forgot to bold the word "NOW" after "Obviously it's a bad deal" in my previous quote. Everything is different with benefit of hindsight and that was my point in response to someone trying to compare deals form a year ago (BFL) vs 9 months ago (Avalon).
I am not talking about months ago (However, a lot of people did post 9 months ago that BFL would not deliver what they promised when they promised it.) I am talking about right now. I didn't need to bold the "now" because the statement "Obviously it's a bad deal" is in the present tense. People ordering equipment from BFL now must rely on low probability events in order to be profitable. Worse, they did their math wrong in their profit projections and believe that they do not need to rely on low probability events. |
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I thought Deepbit was taking over Bitcoin.
Wait, it is still 2012 right?
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"Came through"?! It was supposed to be 1500 GH/s @ 1500 watts in October '12. Now it's 500 GH/s at 2400 watts in June '13. They didn't "come through". They blew it.
A) They will be compensating customers with 3x the number of units, so you will be getting the same hashrate as what you paid for. B) Lets see you do any better. 2000 BTC invested in a BFL pre-order 1 year ago now generates 13 BTC a day! Wow!!! This *might* break even someday. 100 BTC invested in an Avalon pre-order 9 months ago has already made back its investment several times over. 30k USD invested earning 1k per day seems to be an ok deal. Please don't start with but 2000btc is worth so much more now. Everyone can hold as much or as little btc for long term speculation as they like. Having said that no preorder should take a year to ship that's just silly. You should never judge the return on capital of a piece of mining equipment by the USD exchange rate. You should just use BTC in vs BTC out. Don't buy equipment that is going to give you less BTC than you can get just buying BTC instead of the equipment. Operating costs of course need to do the conversion to local currency for USD, but those are a very small component at the moment. I love the armchair general / Monday morning quarterback. Obviously it's a bad deal now but you knew a year ago what the difficulty would be a year later. Please feel free to enlighten us what the exact difficulty will be a year from now. Not taking into account the exchange rate in a deflationary currency misses 1/2 the equation in this whole thing. Buying mining gear is the closest thing to buying a btc bond with no counterparty risk. Each BTC you own gets the exact same benefit from the exchange rate as the BTC you produce with mining equipment. So as far as choosing whether or not to mine BTC or just take the money you would have spent on the electricity and purchase BTC is an easy question to answer. No Monday morning quarterbacking is required. People who are mining with CPUs (and soon GPUs) are better off taking the money paid for electricity spent mining and just purchase BTC off the exchanges. They would spend less for the same amount of BTC. If you know roughly how many orders are in front of you, you can assume that before you get your equipment, some amount of hash power will have already been delivered and added to the network hash rate. For BFL, one might assume that they have at least 300GH/s of backlog in orders. So an order placed today with BFL will not be delivered until 300GH/s has been added to the hash rate. This dictates that a profit calculation for equipment ordered today should start at roughly 60 million difficulty and decay from there, instead of starting at 21 million (today's rate). Nobody is trying to predict the future. What is going on are projections with certain assumptions. The discussion is about what assumptions are valid, and under what assumptions is the BFL equipment going to earn it's capital costs back. |
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This is mostly for my own amusement. Bump this to tell me how wrong or right I was when summer arrives summer arrives. Your hit was 5 times to big Well, he still has two more months. The term Summer 2013 is not a point in time but a range in time, from June 21st to September 21st. He could still make it, but it is gonna be rough. Great thread bump though |
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I respect your posts and replies, firefop. They have merit.
I understand the enforcing aspect, but they have the rules written down nonetheless to cover their asses.
That's exactly it... no transit company would consider letting us install the device without UL because of the potential civil liability if one exploded and took out a bus full of passengers. Ultimately I blame the litigation system in the USA for this mentality. I really don't have an issue with the rules (especially since they're opt-in rather than mandated)... But then I agree that I wouldn't expect a bfl unit to burst into flames either. So maybe I actually agree with you that they should have gotten certification. I think the real point is they said that all these safety inspections were being done many many months ago and still none to be seen. That is reprehensible behavior given that impacts some buyers decisions. Also the implication say one of the units does kill or injury someone goes beyond BFL and to BTC itself. Can BTC afford that sort of risk? This goes for all fabricators not just BFL. Not just that. Inaba attacked Avalon and bASIC for not having certification while claiming that BFL was going to have it. |
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After reading this thread, I wish Bitcoin would ban blue people.
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Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.
If BFL delivers the rest of their orders (unlikely but possible) and KNCMiner delivers and Bitfury delivers and Avalon delivers their batch of chips, then the ASICMiner hardware will be obsolete. ASCIMiner will still be able to make a small return on their hardware at wholesale prices. They won't be raking in the cash and we won't have to worry about them owning the blockchain. ASICMiners only advantage is that they can deliver product. Actually, they have one more advantage: lower production costs than all the competitors. Meaning: in a price war, they have considerable ammo. Edit: And also, products that are proven to work on a large scale since they eat their own dogfood. Foxconn and Quanta have phones. You can call them and get low production costs. ASICMiner does not have a monopoly on chinese manufacturing.  Their products do work on a large scale, but we don't have any insight yet into MTBF however. Me neither. What is MTBF? Mean Time Between Failures. How reliable are ASICMiner blades when you run them 24/7 for a year? Might be very reliable, might not. |
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Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.
If BFL delivers the rest of their orders (unlikely but possible) and KNCMiner delivers and Bitfury delivers and Avalon delivers their batch of chips, then the ASICMiner hardware will be obsolete. ASCIMiner will still be able to make a small return on their hardware at wholesale prices. They won't be raking in the cash and we won't have to worry about them owning the blockchain. ASICMiners only advantage is that they can deliver product. Actually, they have one more advantage: lower production costs than all the competitors. Meaning: in a price war, they have considerable ammo. Edit: And also, products that are proven to work on a large scale since they eat their own dogfood. Foxconn and Quanta have phones. You can call them and get low production costs. ASICMiner does not have a monopoly on chinese manufacturing. Their products do work on a large scale, but we don't have any insight yet into MTBF however. |
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Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.
If BFL delivers the rest of their orders (unlikely but possible) and KNCMiner delivers and Bitfury delivers and Avalon delivers their batch of chips, then the ASICMiner hardware will be obsolete. ASCIMiner will still be able to make a small return on their hardware at wholesale prices. They won't be raking in the cash and we won't have to worry about them owning the blockchain. ASICMiners only advantage is that they can deliver product. |
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