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101  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 02, 2014, 11:08:09 PM
I bought some fractional bitcoin today from my local gunshop's ATM. Feels good.
102  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 02, 2014, 06:07:05 PM
It doesn't feel to me that we really have 'blood in the streets' yet.  Remember what it was like after the rally to 266 when in early July we were trading in the 60's?  I don't think there's anywhere near as much despair here now as their was then....

I remember holding fiat at Mt Gox waiting for $45-50, then prices reversed at $66. I bought back in the rally. Ugh.
103  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 02, 2014, 05:59:21 PM
... The network effect is at work in every mass-adoption scenario.  It does, indeed, tend towards exponential growth.  Until it doesn't.
The network effect is not a law of nature, it is a way of explaining exponential growth when it happens.  There was an 80s TV ad for Faberge Organics shampoo:

"When I first tried Faberge Organics Shampoo with pure wheat germ oil and honey, it was so good I told two friends about it.  And they told two friends.  And so on, and so on…"

Network effect in action.
Now the whole world is using nothing but Faberge Organics shampoo.  Couldn't have ended any other way.
You use Faberge Organics?

I understand your argument, as I maintain a logistical, e.g. S-curve model, of bitcoin price data presuming that the price is correlated with the population of adopting bitcoin speculators. I use $1 million for the arbitrary, guessed-at maximum price. Likewise I hand-fit the logistic function in November 2013, and will re-fit the function sometime next year given more data.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c
104  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 02, 2014, 04:56:34 PM


Not God Exists, but rather Your God Exists. Cuts the odds a bit, and introduces the dilemma of choosing the right religion/faction for those who Believe.

Not Bitcoin succeeds, but cryptocurrency succeeds.  Cuts the odds a bit, and introduces the dilemma of the right coin to invest in.

See my point?

Ahh ... but where are the network effects in religion with respect to Pascal's Wager? Do more believers make a certain God more likely to exist?

Unlike religions which for the most part have immutable doctrine, Bitcoin is defined by software which can be changed a large consensus of its community. I am hoping my altcoin under development has such an effect on Bitcoin, by demonstrating that certain alternative technology is better.
105  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 02, 2014, 04:50:36 PM
All this time, bitcoiners have been saying that bitcoin will "go to the moon"  one day because of its demand as a means of e-payment.   Is the discourse changing now?

Here is the log chart of adjusted number of bitcoin transactions as calculated by Blockchain.info. Note that the most recent value is above any previous except for a few weeks at the bubble peak in 2013. Bitcoin transactions are growing in number and bodes well for the potential growth of bitcoin prices.

106  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Calling the Bottom on: September 02, 2014, 04:34:43 PM


Not God Exists, but rather Your God Exists. Cuts the odds a bit, and introduces the dilemma of choosing the right religion/faction for those who Believe.
107  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 02, 2014, 04:04:20 PM
Here is the one-week resolution chart from Bitstamp. On it I have drawn two trendlines suggesting a damped oscillation pattern that might breakout mid October. The green candle I was watching a couple of weeks ago, turned out not to be a hammer on any of the high volume exchanges that Bitcoin Wisdom charts.

108  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 02, 2014, 03:58:29 PM
Litecoin prices are still well constrained by the bubble collapse resistance trendline. This is the one-week resolution chart from BTC-e vs the dollar. If the price pattern over the last four weeks is a damped oscillation, then prices should converge near the present level of $4.7. At that level, prices reach the trendline again in the second week of October.

109  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 01, 2014, 05:40:14 PM
Here is the most recent 7-day moving average chart of adjusted number of bitcoin transactions from Blockchain.info. Note that the dip in late August has reversed back towards upward growth. I am closely watching to see if the number can exceed the previous peak near 75,000 per day. Currently the smoothed value is 67,330 per day.


110  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TexaiCoin on: August 30, 2014, 08:54:05 PM
This diagram supersedes the one posted earlier. Note that I do not plan to fork any existing proof-of-work coins, rather I am demonstrating an alternative approach that I hope will one day be adopted by Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Namecoin ect. developers.

111  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TexaiCoin on: August 30, 2014, 08:04:10 PM
TexaiCoin is designed to run within a Docker container on the Linux operating system. If you want to run this but have only Windows or a Mac, then the VirtualBox software environment can be installed to allow Linux to run on your computer.

112  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: TexaiCoin on: August 30, 2014, 08:00:13 PM
TexaiCoin

After completing the minimal required changes to my fork of the Bitcoin Core code for creating new blocks with trivial effort, I have been reflecting on how best to demonstrate the technology. Today I am re-branding this thread accordingly as TexaiCoin.

Note that the May 2013 whitepaper describes a hard fork of bitcoin. That cannot possibly happen unless Coopcoin is successful and subsequently convinces the Bitcoin community that a good alternative exists for the current industrial mining method. Furthermore, the current approach is not proof-of-stake, rather the block rewards are used to pay for network infrastructure, developers and community support, e. g. through institutions such as the Bitcoin Foundation.

I would like to demonstrate TexaiCoin at the Hashers United Conference in early October. It will not then have all the features needed for a public release but I can say that when released, TexaiCoin will have the same parameters as Bitcoin and will launch with a genesis block and no premine. This coin is to be marketed as a cryptocurrency especially suited for microtransactions and immediate acknowledgement that the accepted transactions will appear in the next block.

113  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: August 30, 2014, 10:39:25 AM
Just spend a week at Disney World then everything suddenly seems very cheap when you get home. Wink  

Of course the family I met from the UK while in Orlando thought that things were relatively cheap compared to their home so I guess it is all about the value of the currency against other currencies isn't it?  
Also value added taxes are popular in Europe which exaggerates the price differences at retail vs the USA.

Taxes in general are very popular here. Sadly, we're much bigger socialists than the Americans (who are indeed socialists as well nowadays).

Because the USA has relatively good compliance with income tax payments, we have a rather progressive tax structure in which half of taxpayers pay little or no federal tax but a small proportion of high income companies and individuals pay the majority of federal revenue. Many US states follow the federal lead with regard to state income taxes. Interestingly, Florida and Texas do not have state income taxes and rely on other taxes for revenue.

All in all, I consider the US tax system to be comparatively progressive in structure, e.g. soak the rich, yet perhaps less tax as a percentage of national income vs. say some European countries which soak the middle class through VAT. In the USA, the rich are fighting back politically, as a recent court decision permits corporations to contribute funds to political campaigns as if they were individuals, enabling the so called 1% to punch well above their weight so to speak when it comes to electing low-tax officials.
114  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: August 30, 2014, 12:31:42 AM
Just spend a week at Disney World then everything suddenly seems very cheap when you get home. Wink 

Of course the family I met from the UK while in Orlando thought that things were relatively cheap compared to their home so I guess it is all about the value of the currency against other currencies isn't it? 
Also value added taxes are popular in Europe which exaggerates the price differences at retail vs the USA.
115  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: August 30, 2014, 12:26:30 AM
Here is a one-week resolution chart of Peercoin from BTC-e. Note that proof-of-stake coins are not necessarily immune from the bubble collapse. PPC has fallen 14x from its peak. I believe that economic transaction volume is a key support of bitcoin prices vs some altcoins which have been held mostly for speculation.

116  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Bitcoin Cooperative Proof-of-Stake - CPoS on: August 29, 2014, 09:41:20 PM
Here is an illustration of how a server in the Texai network will be configured with Docker containers that provide isolation between cryptocoin daemons, e.g. bitcoind, and the Texai software agents that control them ...

117  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Bitcoin Cooperative Proof-of-Stake - CPoS on: August 29, 2014, 08:47:26 PM
Here is an organization chart design for the nodes within a particular server in the Texai cognitive architecture. Each node contains roles, which are the software agents that collectively perform the node's mission. Roles, in turn, have skills which are Java objects that provide perception and action behavior. Arrows depict the asynchronous task message passing from superior to subordinate roles. Likewise, perceptions, e.g status reports flow upwards from subordinate to superior.

Each node has the following essential roles ...
  • GovernanceRole
  • HeartbeatRole
  • NodeLifeCycleRole
  • NodeLoggerRole

The TopFriendshipNode is the topmost node in this hierarchical control network. It's mission is governance, moreover ensuring that the system is friendly.

The NetworkConfigurationNode contains the NetworkConfigurationRole which performs the node's mission of scheduling the nomadic software agents such as the MintRole.

The NetworkOperationsNode contains the NetworkConfigurationRole which performs the node's mission of network operations management. It contains the BootstrapRole which has the skills to on-board a new server into the Texai network. It contains the RecoveryManagementRole which supervises recovery from a fault. It contains the SoftwareProvisioningManagementRole which supervises software provisioning, e.g. version upgrades.

Cryptocoin operation nodes may contain the following roles ...
  • CoinSeedRole - Uses the Texai encrypted torrent library to seed new servers with the cryptocoin's blockchain
  • BlockchainArchiveRole - replicates the canonical blockchain with new blocks created by the nomadic mint agent
  • MintRole - The nomadic cryptocoin minting agent
  • RewardAllocationRole - The nomadic cryptocoin block reward allocation agent
  • FinancialAccountingAndControlRole - The nomadic agent which balances the blockchain against processed transactions, and provides traffic statistics to network operations
  • PrimaryAuditRole - the nomadic agent which has primary responsibility for verifying the behavior of the MintRole and RewardAllocationRole
  • SecondaryAuditRole - has secondary audit responsibility
  • SoftwareProvisioningRole - performs software provisioning for a particular cryptocoin's Docker container
  • RecoveryRole - has the responsibility for a particular cryptocoin's recovery from a fault
  • CoinPortalRole - has the responsibility of public communication with a cyptocoin's native protocol to client wallets and transaction processors.
The TorRelayNode contains the TorRelayRole which has the simple skill of running a Tor relay instance that encrypts and obfuscates network traffic for those cryptocoin clients that wish additional anonymity by using Tor.

118  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Bitcoin Cooperative Proof-of-Stake - CPoS on: August 28, 2014, 11:32:59 PM
I completed modest modifications to Bitcoin Core that allow the mining of a new block with no effort. The source code branch is named no-pow-mods on my fork of the bitcoin repository at GitHub. My code is here.

The new bitcoin configuration option is added to .bitcoin/bitcoin.conf, where the parameter is the height of the blockchain at the moment of the fork...

Quote
. . .
# no proof-of-work after block
nopowafter=317661

The command on Linux to create a new block and then return is ...

Quote
$ bitcoin-cli setgenerate true

And here is the block reward added to my test wallet ...



Next step is to write a simple Java software agent to send the generate command to the running bitcoin-qt instance every 10 minutes.
119  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Bitcoin Cooperative Proof-of-Stake - CPoS on: August 28, 2014, 07:45:10 PM
Sure - you are asking for *trust* so I am just making sure that people are aware of that (if they want to trust your system then that is up to them).

I claim my cooperative system is trustless in the sense that the source code is open source for inspection, and what few human agents, e.g. developers, network managers, etc., are subject to at least dual control.

The self-signed root X.509 certificate is public except for the private key. Even if the root private key were made public after the issuance of a fixed number of intermediate certificates, I do not see the vulnerability. TLS/SSL traffic is encoded by the end-user (software agent,  not bitcoin user) certificates. Outbound messages from a node are digitally signed using the assigned certificates held by software agent roles hosted by that node.

The chain of trust flows from the root certificate through the intermediate certificate to the end user certificate. The validating endpoint has its own copy of the root certificate which it obtained upon being on-boarded into the network. Sybil attacks, I believe, cannot be accomplished, because both endpoints know each other's certificates in a system in which persistent network connections are managed by distributed, redundant network operation centers.
120  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANNOUNCE] Bitcoin Cooperative Proof-of-Stake - CPoS on: August 28, 2014, 05:55:49 PM
I suppose then that the root certificate private key should be destroyed immediately after creating a sufficient number of intermediate certificates. The system treats the root certificate as it treats the blockchain. Each is widely replicated and tamper-evident by way of comparing the local copy with what all the other peers have. This notion is resistant to byzantine faults up to 50% invalid peers.

It won't help - the corruption (or cheating) is not possible to stop with any system (that is why Bitcoin is what it is).

Basically you'd need another Bitcoin blockchain to stop any fault with your CA system which means you are back at square one.


Not to quibble, but in my two decades of enterprise billing and payment system experience, I found that reasonable data security practices prevented loss of customer funds. I believe a public trial of cooperative Bitcoin will demonstrate its resistance to hacking - or not.
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